Focal points and fiscal discipline. ACES Cases No. 2013.2

Many studies suggest that balanced budget rules can restrain sovereign debt and lower sovereign borrowing costs, even if those rules are never enforced in court. Typically, this is explained as a result of a legal deterrence logic, in which the threat of judicial enforcement deters sovereigns from violating the rules. By contrast, we argue that balanced budget rules work by coordinating decentralized punishment of sovereigns by bond markets, rather than by posing a credible threat of judicial enforcement. Therefore, the clarity of the focal point provided by the rule, rather than the strength of its judicial enforcement mechanisms, determines its effectiveness. We develop a formal model that captures the logic of our argument, and we assess this model using data on US states. We then consider implications of our argument for the impact of the balanced budget rules recently imposed on eurozone states in the Fiscal Compact Treaty.

Towards a methodology for deriving contract-compliant business processes

This paper presents a methodology for deriving business process descriptions based on terms in business contract. The aim is to assist process modellers in structuring collaborative interactions between parties, including their internal processes, to ensure contract-compliant behaviour. The methodology requires a formal model of contracts to facilitate process derivations and to form a basis for contract analysis tools and run-time process execution.

Timing analysis of assembler code control-flow paths

Timinganalysis of assembler code is essential to achieve the strongest possible guarantee of correctness for safety-critical, real-time software. Previous work has shown how timingconstrain ts on controlflow paths through high-level language programs can be formalised using the semantics of the statements comprisingthe path. We extend these results to assembler-level code where it becomes possible to not only determine timingconstrain ts, but also to verify them against the known execution times for each instruction. A minimal formal model is developed with both a weakest liberal precondition and a strongest postcondition semantics. However, despite the formalism’s simplicity, it is shown that complex timingb ehaviour associated with instruction pipeliningand iterative code can be modelled accurately.

Modelling Java concurrency with Object-Z

In this paper, we present a formal model of Java concurrency using the Object-Z specification language. This model captures the Java thread synchronization concepts of locking, blocking, waiting and notification. In the model, we take a viewpoints approach, first capturing the role of the objects and threads, and then taking a system view where we capture the way the objects and threads cooperate and communicate. As a simple illustration of how the model can, in general be applied, we use Object-Z inheritance to integrate the model with the classical producer-consumer system to create a specification directly incorporating the Java concurrency constructs.

Does stakeholder orientation matter? : empirical evidence about power and influence in local government decision-making

Despite being in the business agenda for almost thirty years, stakeholder management is still an under explored field in the public management context. The investigation presented in this doctoral thesis aims to ensure that stakeholder management is a useful technique able to raise issues about power and interests to public organisation’s strategic management processes. Stakeholder theory is tested in an exploratory study carried out with English Local Authorities whose focus is place on decision-making. The findings derive from two distinct and complementary studies: a cross-sectional survey undertaken with chief executives based on the quantitative approach and a qualitative investigation based on cross-sectional case studies and in-depth interviews of validation. While the first study aimed to produce a reliable and comprehensive list of stakeholders able to raise issues in decision-making, the second study aimed to depict the arena in which decision-making comes about. The findings indicate that local government decision-making is a multistakeholder process in which influences are exerted according to stakeholders’ power and interest. The findings also indicate that local government managers should take into account these tissues to avoid losing resources and legitimacy from its environmental supporters. Another issue raised by the investigation is related to the ethics upon which these types of relationships are based. According to the evidence gathered throughout the investigation, the formal model of accountability does not cover the whole set of stakeholders engaged in the process.

The On-board Operative Advisory Expert Systems for Anthropocentric Object

A class of intelligent systems located on anthropocentric objects that provide a crew with recommendations on the anthropocentric object's rational behavior in typical situations of operation is considered. We refer to this class of intelligent systems as onboard real-time advisory expert systems. Here, we present a formal model of the object domain, procedures for obtaining knowledge about the object domain, and a semantic structure of basic functional units of the onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations. The stages of the development and improvement of knowledge bases for onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations that are important in practice are considered.

Experimental Support of Argument-based Syntactic Computation

Linguistic theory, cognitive, information, and mathematical modeling are all useful while we attempt to achieve a better understanding of the Language Faculty (LF). This cross-disciplinary approach will eventually lead to the identification of the key principles applicable in the systems of Natural Language Processing. The present work concentrates on the syntax-semantics interface. We start from recursive definitions and application of optimization principles, and gradually develop a formal model of syntactic operations. The result – a Fibonacci- like syntactic tree – is in fact an argument-based variant of the natural language syntax. This representation (argument-centered model, ACM) is derived by a recursive calculus that generates a mode which connects arguments and expresses relations between them. The reiterative operation assigns primary role to entities as the key components of syntactic structure. We provide experimental evidence in support of the argument-based model. We also show that mental computation of syntax is influenced by the inter-conceptual relations between the images of entities in a semantic space.

A Software Platform for Educational Board Games

Educational games such as quizzes, quests, puzzles, mazes and logical problems may be modeled as multimedia board games. In the scope of the ADOPTA project1 being under development at the Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics at Sofia University, a formal model for presentation of such educational board games was invented and elaborated. Educational games can be modeled as special board mini-games, with a board of any form and any types of positions. Over defined positions, figures (objects) with certain properties are placed and, next, there are to be defined formal rules for manipulation of these figures and resulted effects. The model has been found to be general enough in order to allow description and execution control of more complex logical problems to be solved by several actions delivered to/by the player according some formal rules and context conditions and, in general, of any learning activities and their workflow. It is used as a base for creation of a software platform providing facilities for easy construction of multimedia board games and their execution. The platform consists of game designer (i.e., a game authoring tool) and game run-time controller communicating each other through game repository. There are created and modeled many examples of educational board games appropriate for didactic purposes, self evaluations, etc., which are supposed to be designed easily by authors with no IT skills and experience. By means of game metadata descriptions, these games are going be included into narrative storyboards and, next, delivered to learners with appropriate profile according their learning style, preferences, etc. Moreover, usage of artificial intelligence agents is planned as well – once as playing virtual opponents of the player or, otherwise, being virtual advisers of the gamer helping him/her in finding the right problem solution within given domain such as discovering a treasure using a location map, finding best tour in a virtual museum, guessing an unknown word in a hangman game, and many others.

Online Dictionary - Tool for Preservation of Language Heritage

The paper aims to represent a bilingual online dictionary as a useful tool helping preservation of the natural languages. The author focuses on the approach that was taken to develop compatible bilingual lexical database for the Bulgarian-Polish online dictionary. A formal model for the dictionary encoding is developed in accordance with the complex structures of the dictionary entries. These structures vary depending on the grammatical characteristics of Bulgarian headwords. The Web-application for presentation of the bilingual dictionary is also describred.

An approach for design and analysis of User-centric Communication Middleware

Today, the development of domain-specific communication applications is both time-consuming and error-prone because the low-level communication services provided by the existing systems and networks are primitive and often heterogeneous. Multimedia communication applications are typically built on top of low-level network abstractions such as TCP/UDP socket, SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) and RTP (Real-time Transport Protocol) APIs. The User-centric Communication Middleware (UCM) is proposed to encapsulate the networking complexity and heterogeneity of basic multimedia and multi-party communication for upper-layer communication applications. And UCM provides a unified user-centric communication service to diverse communication applications ranging from a simple phone call and video conferencing to specialized communication applications like disaster management and telemedicine. It makes it easier to the development of domain-specific communication applications. The UCM abstraction and API is proposed to achieve these goals. The dissertation also tries to integrate the formal method into UCM development process. The formal model is created for UCM using SAM methodology. Some design errors are found during model creation because the formal method forces to give the precise description of UCM. By using the SAM tool, formal UCM model is translated to Promela formula model. In the dissertation, some system properties are defined as temporal logic formulas. These temporal logic formulas are manually translated to promela formulas which are individually integrated with promela formula model of UCM and verified using SPIN tool. Formal analysis used here helps verify the system properties (for example multiparty multimedia protocol) and dig out the bugs of systems.

A nested Petri net framework for modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems

In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^

Methods for modeling and analyzing concurrent software

Concurrent software executes multiple threads or processes to achieve high performance. However, concurrency results in a huge number of different system behaviors that are difficult to test and verify. The aim of this dissertation is to develop new methods and tools for modeling and analyzing concurrent software systems at design and code levels. This dissertation consists of several related results. First, a formal model of Mondex, an electronic purse system, is built using Petri nets from user requirements, which is formally verified using model checking. Second, Petri nets models are automatically mined from the event traces generated from scientific workflows. Third, partial order models are automatically extracted from some instrumented concurrent program execution, and potential atomicity violation bugs are automatically verified based on the partial order models using model checking. Our formal specification and verification of Mondex have contributed to the world wide effort in developing a verified software repository. Our method to mine Petri net models automatically from provenance offers a new approach to build scientific workflows. Our dynamic prediction tool, named McPatom, can predict several known bugs in real world systems including one that evades several other existing tools. McPatom is efficient and scalable as it takes advantage of the nature of atomicity violations and considers only a pair of threads and accesses to a single shared variable at one time. However, predictive tools need to consider the tradeoffs between precision and coverage. Based on McPatom, this dissertation presents two methods for improving the coverage and precision of atomicity violation predictions: 1) a post-prediction analysis method to increase coverage while ensuring precision; 2) a follow-up replaying method to further increase coverage. Both methods are implemented in a completely automatic tool.

Event-Code Interaction Directed Test Cases

The Graphical User Interface (GUI) is an integral component of contemporary computer software. A stable and reliable GUI is necessary for correct functioning of software applications. Comprehensive verification of the GUI is a routine part of most software development life-cycles. The input space of a GUI is typically large, making exhaustive verification difficult. GUI defects are often revealed by exercising parts of the GUI that interact with each other. It is challenging for a verification method to drive the GUI into states that might contain defects. In recent years, model-based methods, that target specific GUI interactions, have been developed. These methods create a formal model of the GUI’s input space from specification of the GUI, visible GUI behaviors and static analysis of the GUI’s program-code. GUIs are typically dynamic in nature, whose user-visible state is guided by underlying program-code and dynamic program-state. This research extends existing model-based GUI testing techniques by modelling interactions between the visible GUI of a GUI-based software and its underlying program-code. The new model is able to, efficiently and effectively, test the GUI in ways that were not possible using existing methods. The thesis is this: Long, useful GUI testcases can be created by examining the interactions between the GUI, of a GUI-based application, and its program-code. To explore this thesis, a model-based GUI testing approach is formulated and evaluated. In this approach, program-code level interactions between GUI event handlers will be examined, modelled and deployed for constructing long GUI testcases. These testcases are able to drive the GUI into states that were not possible using existing models. Implementation and evaluation has been conducted using GUITAR, a fully-automated, open-source GUI testing framework.

Imagine the Possibilities: Information without Overload

Information is often modelled as a set of relevant possibilities, treated as logically possible worlds. However, this has the unintuitive consequence that the logical consequences of an agent's information cannot be informative for that agent. There are many scenarios in which such consequences are clearly informative for the agent in question. Attempts to weaken the logic underlying each possible world are misguided. Instead, I provide a genuinely psychological notion of epistemic possibility and show how it can be captured in a formal model, which I call a fan. I then show how to use fans to build formal models of being informed, as well as knowledge, belief and information update.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.