Simulations of forest loss in North America, the Amazon, and combined using the Community Earth System Model

The netcdf files in this archive comprise climate model output from Community Earth System Model for experiments looking at forest loss over Western North America and the Amazon. For further description of the model and configuration for these experiments please see the accompanying manuscript: Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses Elizabeth S. Garcia, Abigail L. S. Swann, Juan C. Villegas, David D. Breshears, Darin J. Law, Scott R. Saleska, and Scott C. Stark published in PLOS ONE, 2016. Contact information in README.txt

Singing in the Rain Forest: How a Tropical Bird Song Transfers Information

How information transmission processes between individuals are shaped by natural selection is a key question for the understanding of the evolution of acoustic communication systems. Environmental acoustics predict that signal structure will differ depending on general features of the habitat. Social features, like individual spacing and mating behavior, may also be important for the design of communication. Here we present the first experimental study investigating how a tropical rainforest bird, the white-browed warbler Basileuterus leucoblepharus, extracts various information from a received song: species-specific identity, individual identity and location of the sender. Species-specific information is encoded in a resistant acoustic feature and is thus a public signal helping males to reach a wide audience. Conversely, individual identity is supported by song features susceptible to propagation: this private signal is reserved for neighbors. Finally, the receivers can locate the singers by using propagation-induced song modifications. Thus, this communication system is well matched to the acoustic constraints of the rain forest and to the ecological requirements of the species. Our results emphasize that, in a constraining acoustic environment, the efficiency of a sound communication system results from a coding/decoding process particularly well tuned to the acoustic properties of this environment.

Aerosol number fluxes over the Amazon rain forest during the wet season

Number fluxes of particles with diameter larger than 10 nm were measured with the eddy covariance method over the Amazon rain forest during the wet season as part of the LBA (The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) campaign 2008. The primary goal was to investigate whether sources or sinks dominate the aerosol number flux in the tropical rain forest-atmosphere system. During the measurement campaign, from 12 March to 18 May, 60% of the particle fluxes pointed downward, which is a similar fraction to what has been observed over boreal forests. The net deposition flux prevailed even in the absolute cleanest atmospheric conditions during the campaign and therefore cannot be explained only by deposition of anthropogenic particles. The particle transfer velocity v(t) increased with increasing friction velocity and the relation is described by the equation v(t) = 2.4x10(-3)xu(*) where u(*) is the friction velocity. Upward particle fluxes often appeared in the morning hours and seem to a large extent to be an effect of entrainment fluxes into a growing mixed layer rather than primary aerosol emission. In general, the number source of primary aerosol particles within the footprint area of the measurements was small, possibly because the measured particle number fluxes reflect mostly particles less than approximately 200 nm. This is an indication that the contribution of primary biogenic aerosol particles to the aerosol population in the Amazon boundary layer may be low in terms of number concentrations. However, the possibility of horizontal variations in primary aerosol emission over the Amazon rain forest cannot be ruled out.

Spatio-temporal patterns of throughfall and solute deposition in an open tropical rain forest

The brief interaction of precipitation with a forest canopy can create a high spatial variability of both throughfall and solute deposition. We hypothesized that (i) the variability in natural forest systems is high but depends on system-inherent stability, (ii) the spatial variability of solute deposition shows seasonal dynamics depending on the increase in rainfall frequency, and (iii) spatial patterns persist only in the short-term. The study area in the north-western Brazilian state of Rondonia is subject to a climate with a distinct wet and dry season. We collected rain and throughfall on an event basis during the early wet season (n = 14) and peak of the wet season (n = 14) and analyzed the samples for pH and concentrations of NH4+, Na+, K+, Ca2+ Mg2+,, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and DOC. The coefficient 3 4 cient of variation for throughfall based on both sampling intervals was 29%, which is at the lower end of values reported from other tropical forest sites, but which is higher than in most temperate forests. Coefficients of variation of solute deposition ranged from 29% to 52%. This heterogeneity of solute deposition is neither particularly high nor particularly tow compared with a range of tropical and temperate forest ecosystems. We observed an increase in solute deposition variability with the progressing wet season, which was explained by a negative correlation between heterogeneity of solute deposition and antecedent dry period. The temporal stability of throughfall. patterns was Low during the early wet season, but gained in stability as the wet season progressed. We suggest that rapid plant growth at the beginning of the rainy season is responsible for the lower stability, whereas less vegetative activity during the later rainy season might favor the higher persistence of ""hot"" and ""cold"" spots of throughfall. quantities. The relatively high stability of throughfall patterns during later stages of the wet season may influence processes at the forest floor and in the soil. Solute deposition patterns showed less clear trends but all patterns displayed a short-term stability only. The weak stability of those patterns is apt to impede the formation of solute deposition -induced biochemical microhabitats in the soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regulating industrial forest concessions in Central Africa and South America

Tropical countries face special specific problems in implementing sustainable forest management (SFM). In many countries, questions are raised on whether tropical forests should be publicly, commonly or privately owned and managed in order to enhance sustainability. Other debates also focus on whether small-scale enterprises are better positioned than large-scale industrial concessions to reduce poverty and attain sustainable management. In countries where large tracts of forest are state-owned, concessions are viewed as a means of delivering services of public and collective interest through an association of private investment and public regulation. However, the success of an industrial concession model in countries with large forest resource endowment to achieve multiple goals such as sustainable forest management and local/regional development depends on two critical assumptions. First, forest functions and services should be managed and maintained as public goods. In many cases, additional uses - and corresponding rights - can take place alongside logging activities. Industrial concessions can be more efficient than other tenure models (such as community-based forest management and small-scale enterprises) in achieving SFM, add value to raw material and comply with growing environmental norms. This is especially the case in market-remote areas with low population density and poor infrastructure. Secondly, to achieve these different outcomes, any concession system needs to be monitored and regulated, especially in contexts dominated by asymmetrical information between regulating authorities and concessionaires. New institutional responses have recently been put forward in several countries, providing valuable materials to design a renewed policy mix which associates public and private incentives. This paper provides a survey of the experience of forest concessions in several Central African and South American countries. The concession system is examined in order to clarify the issues involved, the problems encountered, and what can be learned from the shared experience of these countries in the last decade. This paper argues that despite a sometimes patchy record, concessions can help promote SFM so long as they are packaged with a certain number of specific measures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Policy Reform in Brazil

Rapid deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, caused by economic, social, and policy factors, has focused global and national attention on protecting this valuable forest resource. In response, Brazil reformed its federal forest laws in 2006, creating new regulatory, development, and incentive policy instruments and institutions. Federal forestry responsibilities are maintained within the ministry of the environment; its regulatory agency responsibilities are divided among three different branches of the agency; many powers are delegated to states and municipalities; and a new private concession system is being developed. These reforms offer promise to improve forest protection and management in Brazil but must overcome significant institutional and social resistance for success.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Genetic structure and mating system of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations: A comparative analysis using microsatellite and allozyme markers

A comparative study between microsatellite and allozyme markers was conducted on the genetic structure and mating system in natural populations of Euterpe edulis Mart. Three cohorts, including seedlings, saplings, and adults, were examined in 4 populations using 10 allozyme loci and 10 microsatellite loci. As expected, microsatellite markers had a much higher degree of polymorphism than allozymes, but estimates of multilocus outcrossing rate ((t) over cap (m) = 1.00), as well as estimates of genetic structure (F(IS), G(ST)), were similar for the 2 sets of markers. Estimates of R(ST), for microsatellites, were higher than those of GST, but results of both statistics revealed a close agreement for the genetic structure of the species. This study provides support for the important conclusion that allozymes are still useful and reliable markers to estimate population genetic parameters. Effects of sample size on estimates from hypervariable loci are also discussed in this paper.

Spatial patterns of soil attributes and components in a mangrove system in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.

Using FCD Mapper Software and Landsat Images to Assess Forest Canopy Density in Landscapes in Australia and the Philippines

Using Landsat imagery, forest canopy density (FCD) estimated with the FCD Mapper®, was correlated with predominant height (PDH, measured as the average height of the tallest 50 trees per hectare) for 20 field plots measured in native forest at Noosa Heads, south-east Queensland, Australia. A corresponding image was used to calculate FCD in Leyte Island, the Philippines and was validated on the ground for accuracy. The FCD Mapper was produced for the International Tropical Timber Organisation and estimates FCD as an index of canopy density using reflectance characteristics of Landsat Enhanced Thematic (ETM) Mapper images. The FCD Mapper is a ‘semi-expert’ computer program which uses interactive screens to allow the operator to make decisions concerning the classification of land into bare soil, grass and forest. At Noosa, a positive strong nonlinear relationship (r2 = 0.86) was found between FCD and PDH for 15 field plots with variable PDH but complete canopy closure. An additional five field plots were measured in forest with a broken canopy and the software assessed these plots as having a much lower FCD than forest with canopy closure. FCD estimates for forest and agricultural land in the island of Leyte and subsequent field validation showed that at appropriate settings, the FCD Mapper differentiated between tropical rainforest and banana or coconut plantation. These findings suggest that in forests with a closed canopy this remote sensing technique has promise for forest inventory and productivity assessment. The findings also suggest that the software has promise for discriminating between native forest with a complete canopy and forest which has a broken canopy, such as coconut or banana plantation.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Choice of macroinvertebrate metrics to evaluate stream conditions in Atlantic Forest, Brazil

The development of biomonitoring programs based on the macroinvertebrate community requires the understanding of species distribution patterns, as well as of the responses of the community to anthropogenic stressors. In this study, 49 metrics were tested as potential means of assessing the condition of 29 first- and second-order streams located in areas of differing types of land use in So Paulo State, Brazil. Of the sampled streams, 15 were in well-preserved regions in the Atlantic Forest, 5 were among sugarcane cultivations, 5 were in areas of pasture, and 4 were among eucalyptus plantations. The metrics were assessed against the following criteria: (1) predictable response to the impact of human activity; (2) highest taxonomic resolution, and (3) operational and theoretical simplicity. We found that 18 metrics were correlated with the environmental and spatial predictors used, and seven of these satisfied the selection criteria and are thus candidates for inclusion in a multimetric system to assess low-order streams in So Paulo State. These metrics are family richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; proportion of Megaloptera and Hirudinea; proportion of EPT; Shannon diversity index for genus; and adapted Biological Monitoring Work Party biotic index.

Understanding the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals of a continuous Theobroma cacao population from the Brazilian Amazon

Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Para State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.607) rather than among the fruits ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species. Heredity (2011) 106, 973-985; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.145; published online 8 December 2010

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 3- Survey of adult stages at the rice irrigation system and the emergence of Anopheles albitarsis in South-Eastern, Brazil

A study of adult Culicidae ecology was carried out from January 1992 through January 1993 at the rice irrigation system of the Ribeira Valley Experimental Station. The adaptation of Anopheles albitarsis to the anthropic environment became evident through the adult collections made at its various habitats represented by the irrigation system and the edge of the residual pond, as well as at those made within the local patchy residual woods. Other potential disease vectors were prevalent in the irrigated system too. There were Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. ribeirensis that were collected at various habitats. Remarkable differences among their prevalences were obtained such as between the natural forest and anthropic environments. In the former An. albitarsis was practically non-existent, thus suggesting that it might be considered as eusynathropic. As the populations of other species seemed to increase in the anthropic environment, they may be regarded as hemisynanthropes. Observations suggest the hypothesis that the development of irrigated land may be a factor in the emergence of An. albitarsis, and some other species, as well as the possibility of an increase in the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria.