Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Effects of large-scale human land use on Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) populations in Finland

The Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) is often used as a focal species for landscape ecological studies: the minimum size for its lekking area is 300 ha, and the annual home range for an individual may cover 30 80 km2. In Finland, Capercaillie populations have decreased by approximately 40 85%, with the declines likely to have started in the 1940s. Although the declines have partly stabilized from the 1990s onwards, it is obvious that the negative population trend was at least partly caused by changes in human land use. The aim of this thesis was to study the connections between human land use and Capercaillie populations in Finland, using several spatial and temporal scales. First, the effect of forest age structure on Capercaillie population trends was studied in 18 forestry board districts in Finland, during 1965 1988. Second, the abundances of Capercaillie and Moose (Alces alces L.) were compared in terms of several land-use variables on a scale of 50 × 50 km grids and in five regions in Finland. Third, the effects of forest cover and fine-grain forest fragmentation on Capercaillie lekking area persistence were studied in three study locations in Finland, on 1000 and 3000 m spatial scales surrounding the leks. The analyses considering lekking areas were performed with two definitions for forest: > 60 and > 152 m3ha 1 of timber volume. The results show that patterns and processes at large spatial scales strongly influence Capercaillie in Finland. In particular, in southwestern and eastern Finland, high forest cover and low human impact were found to be beneficial for this species. Forest cover (> 60 m3ha 1 of timber) surrounding the lekking sites positively affected lekking area persistence only at the larger landscape scale (3000 m radius). The effects of older forest classes were hard to assess due to scarcity of older forests in several study areas. Young and middle-aged forest classes were common in the vicinity of areas with high Capercaillie abundances especially in northern Finland. The increase in the amount of younger forest classes did not provide a good explanation for Capercaillie population decline in 1965 1988. In addition, there was no significant connection between mature forests (> 152 m3ha 1 of timber) and lekking area persistence in Finland. It seems that in present-day Finnish landscapes, area covered with old forest is either too scarce to efficiently explain the abundance of Capercaillie and the persistence of the lekking areas, or the effect of forest age is only important when considering smaller spatial scales than the ones studied in this thesis. In conclusion, larger spatial scales should be considered for assessing the future Capercaillie management. According to the proposed multi-level planning, the first priority should be to secure the large, regional-scale forest cover, and the second priority should be to maintain fine-grained, heterogeneous structure within the separate forest patches. A management unit covering hundreds of hectares, or even tens or hundreds of square kilometers, should be covered, which requires regional-level land-use planning and co-operation between forest owners.

The effects of habitat edges and trampling intensity on vegetation in urban forests

Although changes in urban forest vegetation have been documented in previous Finnish studies, the reasons for these changes have not been studied explicitly. Especially, the consequences of forest fragmentation, i.e. the fact that forest edges receive more solar radiation, wind and air-borne nutrients than interiors have been ignored. In order to limit the change in urban forest vegetation we need to know why it occurs. Therefore, the effects of edges and recreational use of urban forests on vegetation were investigated together in this thesis to reveal the relative strengths of these effects and to provide recommendations for forest management. Data were collected in the greater Helsinki area (in the cities of Helsinki, Vantaa and Espoo, and in the municipalities of Sipoo and Tuusula) and in the Lahti region (in the city of Lahti and in the municipality of Hollola) by means of systematic and randomized vegetation and soil sampling and tree measurements. Sample plots were placed from the forest edges to the interiors to investigate the effects of forest edges, and on paths of different levels of wear and off these paths to investigate the effects of trampling. The natural vegetation of mesic and sub-xeric forest site types studied was sensitive both to the effects of the edge and to trampling. The abundances of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes decreased, while light- and nitrogen-demanding herbs and grasses - and especially Sorbus aucuparia – were favoured at the edges and next to the paths. Results indicated that typical forest site types at the edges are changing toward more nitrophilic vegetation communities. Covers of the most abundant forest species decreased considerably – even tens of percentages – from interiors to the edges indicating strong edge effects. These effects penetrated at least up to 50 m from the forest edges into the interiors, especially at south to west facing open edges. The effects of trampling were pronounced on paths and even low levels of trampling decreased the abundances of certain species considerably. The effects of trampling extended up to 8 m from path edges. Results showed that the fragmentation of urban forest remnants into small and narrow patches should be avoided in order to maintain natural forest understorey vegetation in the urban setting. Thus, urban forest fragments left within urban development should be at least 3 ha in size, and as circular as possible. Where the preservation of representative original forest interior vegetation is a management aim, closed edges with conifers can act as an effective barrier against solar radiation, wind and urban load, thereby restricting the effects of the edge. Tree volume at the edge should be at least 225-250 m3 ha-1 and the proportion of conifers (especially spruce) 80% or more of the tree species composition. Closed, spruce-dominated edges may also prevent the excessive growth of S. aucuparia saplings at urban forest edges. In addition, closed edges may guide people’s movements to the maintained paths, thus preventing the spontaneous creation of dense path networks. In urban areas the effects of edges and trampling on biodiversity may be considerable, and are important to consider when the aim of management is to prevent the development of homogeneous herb-grass dominated vegetation communities, as was observed at the investigated edges.

The impact of FSC certification on timber tree regeneration and floristic composition in Honduran community forests

Forest certification has been put forward as a means to improve the sustainability of forest management in the tropical countries, where traditional environmental regulation has been inefficient in controlling forest degradation and deforestation. In these countries, the role of communities as managers of the forest resources is rapidly increasing. However, only a fraction of tropical community forests have been certified and little is known about the impacts of certification in these systems. Two areas in Honduras where community-managed forest operations had received FSC certifications were studied. Río Cangrejal represents an area with a longer history of use, whereas Copén is a more recent forest operation. Ecological sustainability was assessed through comparing timber tree regeneration and floristic composition between certified, conventionally managed and natural forests. Data on woody vegetation and environmental conditions was collected within logging gaps and natural treefall gaps. The regeneration success of shade-tolerant timber tree species was lower in certified than in conventionally managed forests in Río Cangrejal. Furthermore, the floristic composition was more natural-like in the conventionally managed than the certified forests. However, the environmental conditions indicated reduced logging disturbance in the certified forests. Data from Copén demonstrated that the regeneration success of light-demanding timber species was higher in the certified than the unlogged forests. In spite of this, the most valuable timber species Swietenia macrophylla was not regenerating successfully in the certified forests, due to rapid gap closure. The results indicate that pre-certification loggings and forest fragmentation may have a stronger impact on forest regeneration than current, certified management practices. The focus in community forests under low-intensive logging should be directed toward landscape connectivity and the restoration of degraded timber species, instead of reducing mechanical logging damage. Such actions are dependent on better recognition of resource rights, and improving the status of small Southern producers in the markets of certified wood products.

Spatial Data Mining and Modeling for visualisation of Rapid Urbanisation

Rapid urbanisation in India has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in regional planning involving plethora of issues including provision of basic amenities (like electricity, water, sanitation, transport, etc.). Urban planning entails an understanding of landscape and urban dynamics with causal factors. Identifying, delineating and mapping landscapes on temporal scale provide an opportunity to monitor the changes, which is important for natural resource management and sustainable planning activities. Multi-source, multi-sensor, multi-temporal, multi-frequency or multi-polarization remote sensing data with efficient classification algorithms and pattern recognition techniques aid in capturing these dynamics. This paper analyses the landscape dynamics of Greater Bangalore by: (i) characterisation of direct impervious surface, (ii) computation of forest fragmentation indices and (iii) modeling to quantify and categorise urban changes. Linear unmixing is used for solving the mixed pixel problem of coarse resolution super spectral MODIS data for impervious surface characterisation. Fragmentation indices were used to classify forests – interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch and undetermined. Based on this, urban growth model was developed to determine the type of urban growth – Infill, Expansion and Outlying growth. This helped in visualising urban growth poles and consequence of earlier policy decisions that can help in evolving strategies for effective land use policies.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS ALONG THE TERRAIN GRADIENT OF DIVERSE LANDSCAPE

Land use (LU) land cover (LC) information at a temporal scale illustrates the physical coverage of the Earth's terrestrial surface according to its use and provides the intricate information for effective planning and management activities. LULC changes are stated as local and location specific, collectively they act as drivers of global environmental changes. Understanding and predicting the impact of LULC change processes requires long term historical restorations and projecting into the future of land cover changes at regional to global scales. The present study aims at quantifying spatio temporal landscape dynamics along the gradient of varying terrains presented in the landscape by multi-data approach (MDA). MDA incorporates multi temporal satellite imagery with demographic data and other additional relevant data sets. The gradient covers three different types of topographic features, planes; hilly terrain and coastal region to account the significant role of elevation in land cover change. The seasonality is another aspect to be considered in the vegetation dominated landscapes; variations are accounted using multi seasonal data. Spatial patterns of the various patches are identified and analysed using landscape metrics to understand the forest fragmentation. The prediction of likely changes in 2020 through scenario analysis has been done to account for the changes, considering the present growth rates and due to the proposed developmental projects. This work summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization as the causal factors for LULC change.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Phylogeography and non-invasive landscape genetics of the European pine marten ("martes martes" L. 1758) : insights into ancient and contemporary processes shaping genetic variation

283 p. : graf., map.

Análise dos processos recentes de fragmentação e recomposição dos remanescentes florestais do estado do Rio de Janeiro

Ao longo de quase cinco anos de trabalho, foi desenvolvido o Índice de Qualidade dos Municípios - Verde, pela Fundação CIDE. O trabalho buscou retratar as características da fragmentação florestal fluminense. Como um elemento para apoiar a gestão ambiental do território, o projeto identificou corredores ecológicos prioritários para a interligação de fragmentos florestais. A grande contribuição do trabalho, do ponto de vista conceitual, foi reorientar o debate acerca da fragmentação florestal no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. O projeto IQM - Verde apresentou, exaustivamente, lugares onde ocorreram perdas e ganhos de estoques de vegetação com porte arbóreo, num recorte por municípios, bacias hidrográficas e Unidades de Conservação. Existem importantes questões que foram levantadas e ainda aguardam maiores e melhores respostas. Uma delas é tentar explicar, a partir da ecologia de paisagens, quais são os mecanismos que facilitam ou dificultam o processo natural de sucessão florestal. A situação da sucessão florestal é completamente diferente de uma região para outra do Estado. No Noroeste do Estado existem indícios claros de retração e fragmentação dos remanescentes enquanto na região Serrana do Sul Fluminense aparecem sinais claros de recuperação e recomposição florestal. Novos conceitos de gestão ambiental procuram minimizar os efeitos decorrentes da fragmentação e do isolamento espacial das espécies. O aumento da conectividade através de corredores ecológicos entre unidades de conservação e até mesmo entre os fragmentos mais bem conservados é apontado por muitos pesquisadores como uma das formas mais eficazes de promover a manutenção dos remanescentes florestais - a longo prazo - e até mesmo promover a recuperação funcional de determinadas unidades ecológicas atualmente ilhadas. A atual geração de pesquisadores e gestores públicos está diante do problema do controle dos processos que desencadeiam a fragmentação florestal. Portanto, é urgente a necessidade de entender todas as consequências associadas ao processo de fragmentação florestal e, ao mesmo tempo, descobrir os efeitos inibidores deste complexo fenômeno que possui raízes físicas, naturais e sociais. O objetivo central da tese é, a partir de elementos da História das Mentalidades e da Teoria da Decisão, construir cenários de pressão antrópica sobre os remanescentes florestais e propor um programa possível de intervenção econômica, jurídica e política, denominado no presente estudo como bolsa floresta, capaz de aliviar o atual processo de fragmentação florestal.

Endangered Species, Provincialism, and a Continental Approach to Bird Conservation

I examined lists of endangered species from northeastern and midwestern United States to assess the extent to which they were dominated by species considered rare due to their vulnerability to anthropogenic stressors or, instead, by species whose rarity might be explained otherwise. Northeastern states had longer species lists than midwestern states, and more species associated with locally rare prairie habitats. More species at the edge of their geographic range appeared on lists from the Northeast than the Midwest. About 70% of listed species overall have shown either no significant population trend, or increases, at the continental scale, but wetland and prairie species were frequently listed, consistent with the generally acknowledged, widespread loss of these habitats. Curiously, midwestern states tended to list fewer forest species, despite evidence that forest fragmentation there has had strongly deleterious effects on regional bird populations. Overall, species appear to be listed locally for a variety of reasons not necessarily related to their risk of extinction generally, potentially contributing to inefficient distributions of limited resources to deal effectively with species that legitimately require conservation attention. I advocate a continental perspective when listing species locally, and propose enhanced criteria for characterizing species as endangered at the local level.