Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Improved models for estimating temporal changes in carbon sequestration in above-ground biomass of mixed-species environmental plantings

Plantings of mixed native species (termed 'environmental plantings') are increasingly being established for carbon sequestration whilst providing additional environmental benefits such as biodiversity and water quality. In Australia, they are currently one of the most common forms of reforestation. Investment in establishing and maintaining such plantings relies on having a cost-effective modelling approach to providing unbiased estimates of biomass production and carbon sequestration rates. In Australia, the Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is used for both national greenhouse gas accounting and project-scale sequestration activities. Prior to undertaking the work presented here, the FullCAM tree growth curve was not calibrated specifically for environmental plantings and generally under-estimated their biomass. Here we collected and analysed above-ground biomass data from 605 mixed-species environmental plantings, and tested the effects of several planting characteristics on growth rates. Plantings were then categorised based on significant differences in growth rates. Growth of plantings differed between temperate and tropical regions. Tropical plantings were relatively uniform in terms of planting methods and their growth was largely related to stand age, consistent with the un-calibrated growth curve. However, in temperate regions where plantings were more variable, key factors influencing growth were planting width, stand density and species-mix (proportion of individuals that were trees). These categories provided the basis for FullCAM calibration. Although the overall model efficiency was only 39-46%, there was nonetheless no significant bias when the model was applied to the various planting categories. Thus, modelled estimates of biomass accumulation will be reliable on average, but estimates at any particular location will be uncertain, with either under- or over-prediction possible. When compared with the un-calibrated yield curves, predictions using the new calibrations show that early growth is likely to be more rapid and total above-ground biomass may be higher for many plantings at maturity. This study has considerably improved understanding of the patterns of growth in different types of environmental plantings, and in modelling biomass accumulation in young (<25. years old) plantings. However, significant challenges remain to understand longer-term stand dynamics, particularly with temporal changes in stand density and species composition. © 2014.

Stakeholder participation in sustainable forest management in fire-prone areas

Os incêndios florestais, associados ao abandono do espaço rural, a pequena propriedade florestal e o desinteresse e o absentismo dos proprietários florestais têm sido apontados como fatores que têm afetado a sustentabilidade das florestas em Portugal. Apesar da formulação de políticas e de instrumentos de planeamento e de gestão florestal para lidar com estes constrangimentos, são ainda escassos os progressos para uma Gestão Florestal Sustentável. A nível internacional e europeu, a participação dos agentes já representa um aspeto-chave no processo de definição e de implementação de estratégias que promovam a multifuncionalidade da floresta, mas também se adeqúem às necessidades e aos interesses dos agentes locais. A temática da tese esteve focada nesta discussão, argumentando que existe uma escassa participação dos agentes nos processos de tomada de decisão relativos ao setor florestal. O principal objetivo da investigação foi o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia participativa para a discussão e negociação de estratégias locais para a Gestão Florestal Sustentável, que maximizem o potencial produtivo e o papel sócio-ambiental das florestas, diminuam o risco de incêndio e promovam o crescente interesse e participação dos agentes locais na gestão florestal. A tese está estruturada em três partes. A primeira parte apresenta uma avaliação do sector florestal nacional, com base numa revisão bibliográfica e numa comparação de indicadores, políticas e instrumentos de planeamento e gestão florestal (Capítulo 2) e com base num estudo de perceção social desenvolvido numa área de estudo localizada na região Centro de Portugal. Este estudo analisa as perceções técnicas (decisores políticos e técnicos) e sociais (proprietários florestais e outros membros da comunidade local) sobre as florestas, a gestão florestal e os incêndios florestais (Capítulo 4). As ‘Zonas de Intervenção Florestal’, enquanto ferramenta recente para a cooperação e organização dos proprietários e produtores florestais, foram também analisadas (Capítulo 3). A segunda parte da tese é dedicada à análise de processos de participação pública, com base numa revisão bibliográfica sobre os benefícios, níveis, abordagens e métodos de participação (Capítulo 5) e numa avaliação de processos de participação pública desenvolvidos em Portugal (Capítulo 6). A terceira parte da tese foca-se no desenho e no teste da metodologia participativa proposta no âmbito desta tese (Capítulo 7) e na formulação de algumas orientações para melhoria dos processos participativos na gestão florestal (Capítulo 8). Os resultados confirmaram a centralidade dos incêndios florestais e dos fatores associados ao contexto socioeconómico (e.g. despovoamento e envelhecimento populacional, absentismo, falta de gestão florestal, estrutura fundiária) como os principais problemas que afetam a floresta na região Centro de Portugal. A organização e cooperação dos proprietários florestais emergiu como solução possível para lidar com estas ameaças e promover a multifuncionalidade da floresta, sendo essencial aumentar o conhecimento e a participação dos agentes nas decisões associadas à floresta. É proposta uma ferramenta para esta participação, centrada no contexto local e facilmente utilizável por todos os agentes. A implementação da metodologia participativa revelou o seu potencial no desenvolvimento de uma participação equitativa e inclusiva dos múltiplos agentes.

Improvement of strategies for the management of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora). Evaluation and optimization of physical and chemical control methods, and use of decision support systems

El foc bacterià és una malaltia que afecta a plantes de la família de la rosàcies, causada pel bacteri Erwinia amylovora. El seu rang d'hostes inclou arbres fruiters, com la perera, la pomera o el codonyer, i plantes ornamentals de gran interès comercial i econòmic. Actualment, la malaltia s'ha dispersat i es troba àmpliament distribuïda en totes les zones de clima temperat del món. A Espanya, on la malaltia no és endèmica, el foc bacterià es va detectar per primer cop al 1995 al nord del país (Euskadi) i posteriorment, han aparegut varis focus en altres localitzacions, que han estat convenientment eradicats. El control del foc bacterià, és molt poc efectiu en plantes afectades per la malaltia, de manera que es basa en mesures encaminades a evitar la dispersió del patogen, i la introducció de la malaltia en regions no endèmiques. En aquest treball, la termoteràpia ha estat avaluada com a mètode d'eradicació d'E. amylovora de material vegetal de propagació asimptomàtic. S'ha demostrat que la termoteràpia és un mètode viable d'eradicar E. amylovora de material de propagació. Gairebé totes les espècies i varietats de rosàcies mantingudes en condicions d'humitat sobrevivien 7 hores a 45 ºC i més de 3 hores a 50 ºC, mentre que més d'1 hora d'exposició a 50 ºC amb calor seca produïa danys en el material vegetal i reduïa la brotació. Tractaments de 60 min a 45 ºC o 30 min a 50 ºC van ser suficients per reduir la població epífita d'E. amylovora a nivells no detectables (5 x 102 ufc g-1 p.f.) en branques de perera. Els derivats dels fosfonats i el benzotiadiazol són efectius en el control del foc bacterià en perera i pomera, tant en condicions de laboratori, com d'hivernacle i camp. Els inductors de defensa de les plantes redueixen els nivells de malaltia fins al 40-60%. Els intervals de temps mínims per aconseguir el millor control de la malaltia van ser 5 dies pel fosetil-Al, i 7 dies per l'etefon i el benzotiadiazol, i les dosis òptimes pel fosetil-Al i el benzotiadiazol van ser 3.72 g HPO32- L-1 i 150 mg i.a. L-1, respectivament. Es millora l'eficàcia del fosetil-Al i del benzotiadiazol en el control del foc bacterià, quan es combinen amb els antibiòtics a la meitat de la dosi d'aquests últims. Tot i que l'estratègia de barrejar productes és més pràctica i fàcil de dur a terme a camp, que l'estratègia de combinar productes, el millor nivell de control de la malaltia s'aconsegueix amb l'estratègia de combinar productes. Es va analitzar a nivell histològic i ultrastructural l'efecte del benzotiadiazol i dels fosfonats en la interacció Erwinia amylovora-perera. Ni el benzotiadiazol, ni el fosetil-Al, ni l'etefon van induir canvis estructurals en els teixits de perera 7 dies després de la seva aplicació. No obstant, després de la inoculació d'E. amylovora es va observar en plantes tractades amb fosetil-Al i etefon una desorganització estructural cel·lular, mentre que en les plantes tractades amb benzotiadiazol aquestes alteracions tissulars van ser retardades. S'han avaluat dos models (Maryblyt, Cougarblight) en un camp a Espanya afectat per la malaltia, per determinar la precisió de les prediccions. Es van utilitzar dos models per elaborar el mapa de risc, el BRS-Powell combinat i el BIS95 modificat. Els resultats van mostrar dos zones amb elevat i baix risc de la malaltia. Maryblyt i Cougarblight són dos models de fàcil ús, tot i que la seva implementació en programes de maneig de la malaltia requereix que siguin avaluats i validats per un període de temps més llarg i en àrees on la malaltia hi estigui present.

THE ROLE OF BIRD MANAGEMENT IN FIRE PROTECTION

Two years ago, Mike Fall and I showed you some ideas we had regarding mod¬ern architecture and bird problems. This year we've switched to considering bird hazards in older frame dwellings and on buildings where a fire hazard may be ap¬parent. During a class project some time ago, I was examining a nest of house sparrows and discovered that these birds incorporated cellulose cigarette filters into their nests. Filters were stripped of their paper wrapping and were apparently used by the sparrows as a substitute for or a supplement to fluffy air-born seeds and seed mat¬erials. The incidence of the cigarette filters varied. In the nests that I sampled the numbers varied anywhere from six up to two dozen filter remnants. We feel that the incidence will probably vary with the relative availability of discarded cigarette filter butts. We are concerned with the incidence of filters as an index to the possibility that the birds are picking up live cigarette butts, and this leads us to investigate some records of fires over the past three quarters of a century that were claimed to have been caused by birds.

How much management is enough? Stakeholder views on forest management in fire-prone areas in central Portugal

With the increasing pressure to improve the contribution of forests to help dealing with global changes, it is critical to understand the different perceptions of those involved in the forest. How do forest owners, managers and members of local communities who often depend on the forest, value it and what are the problems affecting the forests in terms of being able to meet these new challenges? In Portugal, this task has taken on an even greater priority as more than 90% of the forest is private and forest management relies on the individual decisions of thousands of forest owners. To understand stakeholder views on forest and forest management, a transversal social perception survey was implemented in the form of a case study of central Portugal which included decision-makers, local technicians, forest owners and the general public. The results show that there is a consensus on the main issues affecting forests and forest management. A shift from classic forest owners to the emergence of indifferent forest owners was observed, although this shift has not been recognized by the forest owners in the survey, who maintain the individual management of their properties.

Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire and Watershed Management, October 26-28, 1988, Sacramento, California /

"March 1989"--T.p. verso.

COAL SEAM FIRE, BURNED AREA EMERGENCY STABILIZATION AND REHABILITATION PLAN, WHITE RIVER NATIONAL FOREST BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, GLENWOOD SPRINGS DISTRICT, JUNE 28, 2002

Shipping List Date: 08/14/2002

USDA fire and aviation management fiscal year 2006 in review /

"FS-885."

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

Using a thimble to drink from a fire hydrant: information anxiety and the third sector

In the last 10 years, the third sector has seen an eruption of texts, websites, discussion forums, conferences, new journals, new research centres and sector-specific degrees. This growing abundance of information allows for hitherto impossible networking, collaboration and general awareness of what is happening in the sector. At the same time, however, like staff in many industries, nonprofit professionals can suffer from an increasingly common 21st century malaise known as ‘information anxiety’. It is worth examining the sector through the lens of Information Studies theory, to question what the information technology needs of nonprofits are and how their information management techniques may differ from those in the public and private sectors. There are implications of this both for those within the industry (in terms of governance, training and public relations) and those external to it (who may form relationships with nonprofits on the basis of access to information).

Predicting posttraumatic growth and posttraumatic stress in fire-fighters

Emergency service workers (e.g., fire-fighters, police and paramedics) are exposed to elevated levels of potentially traumatising events through the course of their work. Such exposure can have lasting negative consequences (e. g., Post Traumatic Stress Disorder; PTSD) and/or positive outcomes (e. g., Posttraumatic Growth; PTG). Research had implicated trauma, occupational and personal variables that account for variance in post-trauma outcomes yet at this stage no research has investigated these factors and their relative influence on both PTSD and PTG in a single study. Based in Calhoun and Tedeschi’s (2013) model of PTG and previous research, in this study regression models of PTG and PTSD symptoms among 218 fire-fighters were tested. Results indicated organisational factors predicted symptoms of PTSD, while there was partial support for the hypothesis that coping and social support would be predictors of PTG. Experiencing multiple sources of trauma, higher levels of organisational and operational stress, and utilising cognitive reappraisal coping, were all significant predictors of PTSD symptoms. Increases in PTG were predicted by experiencing trauma from multiple sources and the use of self-care coping. Results highlight the importance of organisational factors in the development of PTSD symptoms, and of individual factors for promoting PTG.

Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings

Post-earthquake fire (PEF) is considered one of the most high risk and complicated problems affecting buildings in urban areas and can cause even more damage than the earthquake itself. However, most standards and codes ignore the implications of PEF and so buildings are not normally designed with PEF in mind. What is needed is for PEF factors to be routinely scrutinized and codified as part of the design process. A systematic application is presented as a means of mitigating the risk of PEF in urban buildings. This covers both existing buildings, in terms of retrofit solutions, and those yet to be designed, where a PEF factor is proposed. To ensure the mitigation strategy meets the defined criteria, a minimum time is defined – the safety guaranteed time target – where the safety of the inhabitants in a building is guaranteed.

Models of social media adoption in emergency management organisations

Recent natural disasters such as the Haitian earthquake 2011, the South East Queensland floods 2011, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in the United States of America in 2012, have seen social media platforms changing the face of emergency management communications, not only in times of crisis and also during business-as-usual operations. With social media being such an important and powerful communication tool, especially for emergency management organisations, the question arises as to whether the use of social media in these organisations emerged by considered strategic design or more as a reactive response to a new and popular communication channel. This paper provides insight into how the social media function has been positioned, staffed and managed in organisations throughout the world, with a particular focus on how these factors influence the style of communication used on social media platforms. This study has identified that the social media function falls on a continuum between two polarised models, namely the authoritative one-way communication approach and the more interactive approach that seeks to network and engage with the community through multi-way communication. Factors such the size of the organisation; dedicated resourcing of the social media function; organisational culture and mission statement; the presence of a social media champion within the organisation; management style and knowledge about social media play a key role in determining where on the continuum organisations sit in relation to their social media capability. This review, together with a forthcoming survey of Australian emergency management organisations and local governments, will fill a gap in the current body of knowledge about the evolution, positioning and usage of social media in organisations working in the emergency management field in Australia. These findings will be fed back to Industry for potential inclusion in future strategies and practices.