Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Conversion Ratios, Efficiency and Obfuscation: A Study of the Impact of Changed UK Charity Accounting Requirements on External Stakeholders

Key stakeholders in the UK charity sector have, in recent years, advocated greater accountability for charity performance. Part of that debate has focussed on the use of conversion ratios as indicators of efficiency, with importance to stakeholders being contrasted with charities’ apparent reluctance to report such measures. Whilst, before 2005, conversion ratios could have been computed from financial statements, changes in the UK charity SORP have radically altered the ability of users to do this. This article explores the impact on the visibility of such information through an analysis of the financial statements of large UK charities before and after the 2005 changes. Overall, the findings suggest that, despite the stated intention of increasing transparency in respect of charity costs, the application of the changes has resulted in charities ‘managing’ the numbers and limiting their disclosures, possibly to the detriment of external stakeholders.

A lesson in business: cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel financial incentive intervention for increasing physical activity in the workplace

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer’s perspective.

Methods: Employees used a ‘loyalty card’ to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates.

Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer’s perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable “business model” which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

The effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios

There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in-sample hedging performance. However, the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold-out sample. A method for evaluating the models in a modern risk-management framework is presented, highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time-varying and asymmetric.

Better cross hedges with composite hedging? Hedging equity portfolios using financial and commodity futures

Unless a direct hedge is available, cross hedging must be used. In such circumstances portfolio theory implies that a composite hedge (the use of two or more hedging instruments to hedge a single spot position) will be beneficial. The study and use of composite hedging has been neglected; possibly because it requires the estimation of two or more hedge ratios. This paper demonstrates a statistically significant increase in out-of-sample effectiveness from the composite hedging of the Amex Oil Index using S&P500 and New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures. This conclusion is robust to the technique used to estimate the hedge ratios, and to allowance for transactions costs, dividends and the maturity of the futures contracts.

Partial economic reforrns and financial crises: an emerging markets perspective

The recent emerging market experiences have posed a challenge to the conventional wisdom that unsustainable fiscal deficits are the key to understanding financial crises in these countries. The health of the domestic banking system has emerged as the main driving force behind the perverse dynamics of partial reforms. The current paper shares this view and uses a model of contractual inefliciencies in the banking sector to understand the dynamics of these reforms. We find that the threat of a large exchange rate devaluation depends on the stock of international reserves relative to the stock of domestic credit that must be extended by the Central Bank in response to a large capital outflow. Moreover, if a country has a weak banking sector but high net reserve ratios, the capital flow reversal might only increase the vulnerability to a currency crisis without necessarily causing it. The results are in accordance with much of the empiricalliterature on the determinants of financiaI crises in emerging markets. Some aspectsof the recent policy debate on the introduction of capital controls are also analysed.

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? : empirical analysis using state-level panel data

This paper examines empirically whether financial deepening has contributed to poverty reduction in India. Using unbalanced panel data for 28 states and union territories between 1973 and 2004, we estimate models in which the poverty ratio is explained by financial deepening, controlling for international openness, inflation rate, and economic growth. From the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that financial deepening and economic growth alleviate poverty, while international openness and the inflation rate have the opposite effect. These results are robust to changes in the poverty ratios in rural areas, urban areas, and the whole economy.

A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

Does Financial Performance Depend on Hotel Size? Analysis of the Financial Profile of the U.S. Lodging Industry

This research presents a financial profile of the U.S. Lodging Industry based on an analysis of 2,091 financial statements (fiscal year 2011) for individual hotels ranging in asset size of $500 thousand to $250 million. The study analyzes summary results of the financial position and profitability of hotels based on a common size analysis of Balance Sheets and Income Statements. Furthermore, the study analyzes 10 key performance benchmarks as measured by Liquidity, Solvency and Operating Ratios. The results of the study show a divergence in the hotel industry’s financial performance based on the size of the hotel and by upper, median and lower quartiles of the study sample.

Impact of financial crisis on earnings management in listed companies of Portugal and UK

Firm’s financial information is essential to stakeholders’ decision making. Although not always financial statements show the firm’s real image. This study examines listed firms from Portugal and UK. Firms have different purposes to manipulate earnings: some strive for influencing investors’ perception about a particular company, some try to provide better position for gaining finance from credit institutions or paying less tax to tax authorities. Usually, this behaviour is induced when firms have financial problems. Consequently, the study also aims to see the impact of financial crisis on earnings management. We try to answer question how does extent of firms’ involvement in earnings management change when the world undergoes financial crisis. Furthermore, we also compare two countries with different legal forces in terms of quality of accounting to see the main differences. We used a panel data methodology to analyse financial data from 2004 till 2014 of listed firms from Portugal and UK. Beneish (1999) model was applied to categorize manipulator and non-manipulator firms. Analysing accounting information according to Beneish’s ratios, findings suggest that financial crisis had certain impact on firms’ tendency to manipulate financial results in UK although it is not statistically significant. Moreover, besides the differences between Portugal and UK, results contradict the common view of legal systems’ quality, as UK firms tend to apply more accounting techniques for manipulation than the Portuguese ones. Our main results also confirm that some UK firms manipulate ratios of receivables’ days, asset quality index, depreciation index, leverage, sales and general administrative expenses whereas Portuguese firms manipulate only receivables’ days. Finally, we also find that the main reason to manipulate results is not to influence the cost of obtained funds neither to minimize tax burden since net profit does not explain the ratios used in the Beneish model. Results suggest that the main concern to listed firms manipulate results is to influence financial investors perception.

Financial sustainability of cooperatives: a case of portuguese olive oil cooperatives

En Portugal, como en otros países, las cooperativas agrícolas tienen un papel económico importante en el sistema alimentario. Similar a otras organizaciones económicas, las cooperativas agrícolas han sido testigos de cambios estructurales en las últimas décadas en términos de modelos de gobernación y gestión. Las cooperativas agrícolas portuguesas se han visto constreñidas por su contexto a adoptar un modelo tradicional de propiedad y control. El objetivo principal de este estudio era analizar cuestiones relacionadas con la estructura de gestión y desempeño financiero de las cooperativas, basada en los datos recogidos de cooperativas de aceite de oliva situadas en la región interior norte de Portugal. La combinación de un análisis cualitativo de la estructura y toma de decisiones, una evaluación financiera y la aplicación de un enfoque en varios criterios (PROMETHEE II), los resultados están en línea con expectativas (por ejemplo, bajos niveles de participación de los miembros, gestión no profesional, ratios de rentabilidad bajos, bajo apalancamiento y una capacidad para cumplir compromisos financieros), excepto la relación entre la gestión profesional y el desempeño financiero. La existencia de gestión profesional no conduce a mejores resultados financieros. Este resultado refuerza la creencia de que las cooperativas que están estructuradas de diferente manera tienen intereses diferentes y contradictorios a las partes interesadas.

Ratios and indicators that determine return on equity

This study aims to investigate factors that may affect return on equity (ROE). The ROE is a gauge of profit generating efficiency and a strong measure of how well the management of a firm creates value for its shareholders. Firms with higher ROE typically have competitive advantages over their competitors which translates into superior returns for investors. Therefore, seems imperative to study the drivers of ROE, particularly ratios and indicators that may have considerable impact. The analysis is done on a sample of 90 largest non-financial companies which are components of NASDAQ-100 index and also on industry sector samples. The ordinary least squares method is used to find the most impactful drivers of ROE. The extended DuPont model’s components are considered as the primary factors affecting ROE. In addition, other ratios and indicators such as price to earnings, price to book and current are also incorporated. Consequently, the study uses eight ratios that are believed to have impact on ROE. According to our findings, the most relevant ratios that determine ROE are tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover and financial leverage (extended DuPont components) regardless of industry sectors.

Soil characteristics in Doon Valley (north west Himalaya, India) by inversion of H/V spectral ratios from ambient noise measurements

Past and recent observations have shown that the local site conditions significantly affect the behavior of seismic waves and its potential to cause destructive earthquakes. Thus, seismic microzonation studies have become crucial for seismic hazard assessment, providing local soil characteristics that can help to evaluate the possible seismic effects. Among the different methods used for estimating the soil characteristics, the ones based on ambient noise measurements, such as the H/V technique, become a cheap, non-invasive and successful way for evaluating the soil properties along a studied area. In this work, ambient noise measurements were taken at 240 sites around the Doon Valley, India, in order to characterize the sediment deposits. First, the H/V analysis has been carried out to estimate the resonant frequencies along the valley. Subsequently, some of this H/V results have been inverted, using the neighborhood algorithm and the available geotechnical information, in order to provide an estimation of the S-wave velocity profiles at the studied sites. Using all these information, we have characterized the sedimentary deposits in different areas of the Doon Valley, providing the resonant frequency, the soil thickness, the mean S-wave velocity of the sediments, and the mean S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m.