How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world. This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007. For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisis This book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America. The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress. Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market. The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Chest associated to motor physiotherapy improves cardiovascular variables in newborns with respiratory distress syndrome

Background We aimed to evaluate the effects of chest and motor physiotherapy treatment on hemodynamic variables in preterm newborns with respiratory distress syndrome. Methods We evaluated heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), systolic (SAP), mean (MAP) and diastolic arterial pressure (DAP), temperature and oxygen saturation (SO2%) in 44 newborns with respiratory distress syndrome. We compared all variables between before physiotherapy treatment vs. after the last physiotherapy treatment. Newborns were treated during 11 days. Variables were measured 2 minutes before and 5 minutes after each physiotherapy treatment. We applied paired Student t test to compare variables between the two periods. Results HR (148.5 ± 8.5 bpm vs. 137.1 ± 6.8 bpm - p < 0.001), SAP (72.3 ± 11.3 mmHg vs. 63.6 ± 6.7 mmHg - p = 0.001) and MAP (57.5 ± 12 mmHg vs. 47.7 ± 5.8 mmHg - p = 0.001) were significantly reduced after 11 days of physiotherapy treatment compared to before the first session. There were no significant changes regarding RR, temperature, DAP and SO2%. Conclusions Chest and motor physiotherapy improved cardiovascular parameters in respiratory distress syndrome newborns.

Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

A letter to the Right Honorable Sir Robert Peel, bart. etc., on the condition of England, and on the means of removing the causes of distress.

Added title page: The budget. A series of letters on financial, commercial, and colonial policy. By a member of the Political Economy club. No. IX.

Financial pamphlets

A collection of miscellaneous pamphlets on finance.

Distress risk, growth and earnings quality

We extend and complement prior work by investigating the earnings quality of firms with different financial health characteristics and growth prospects. By using three alternative measures of default likelihood and two alternative measures of growth options, without being limited to a specific event, we provide a more comprehensive setup for analysing the earnings characteristics of the universe of firms than examining distressed firms with persistent losses, dividend reductions or bankruptcy-filings. Our dataset consists of 15,049 healthy U.S. firms over the period 1990-2004. Results show that the relation between earnings quality and financial health is not monotonic. Distressed firms have a low level of earnings timeliness for bad news and a high level for good news, and manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than healthy firms. On the other hand, healthy firms have a high level of earnings timeliness for bad news. Growth aspects play an important role in a firm's ability to manage earnings. In contrast to the findings of prior studies, growth firms have greater earnings timeliness for bad news, whereas value firms manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than growth firms. © 2011 The Authors. Abacus© 2011 Accounting Foundation, The University of Sydney.

“Considering there’s supposedly nothing wrong with me, it’s not a life”: Women’s Narratives of Distress, Visiting Herbalists, and Being Well in the 21st Century

Distress can have a profoundly negative impact on the well-being of women (who are the main receivers of treatment for distress). Distress also poses a huge financial problem for the United Kingdom, the cost of which is predicted to reach over £26bn by 2026. A growing body of research has shown that various medicinal plants have potential to treat different aspects of distress. However, there is little research investigating the patient experience of western herbal practice (WHP), and none investigating women’s experiences of WHP for distress. In response, this longitudinal study utilised interviews with twenty-six women who were visiting herbalists for distress across the south-east of The United Kingdom to elicit their stories of distress, as well as their experiences of WHP. The narratives were analysed from a constructionist standpoint, using inductive thematic analysis. The participants’ narratives highlighted the profound impact of everyday distress, whilst feelings associated with distress (anxiety, low mood, isolation, shame and guilt) were frequently communicated via the use of metaphors. These negative feelings, often combined with unsuccessful biomedical encounters, frequently led to the women feeling desperate when first visiting a herbalist. The participants’ experiences of WHP showed that an accessible practitioner and good therapeutic relationship combined with flexible herbal treatment, allowed women with diverse stories of distress to overcome feelings of desperation. Ongoing support allowed the women to feel like they had a safety net as they journeyed from a place of distress, back into the wider world. These findings were supported by more unusual negative accounts, which showed how the herbal therapeutic process could be unsuccessful if elements were missing. This research is of significance as it helps to deepen our understanding of women’s experiences of distress – particularly perceptions of stigma which surround feelings of shame (linked to an inability to cope) and guilt (linked to the perceived impact of distress on others). The research also has relevance for WHP, as it highlights which positive aspects of WHP are of particular importance to women patients who are living with distress.

Unemployment as a source of mental distress to individuals and their family: Unemployed parents perceptions during the economic recession

Background: Due to the economic recession, several people in Europe became unemployed. This situation may risk their mental health. Aim: This study explored parents’ perceptions about their unemployment’s effects in daily life during the recession. Methods: A total of 59 unemployed parents (40.7% fathers and 59.3% mothers), ageing 44.4 years (±6.2), answer a question on how the unemployment affected their family lives. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data. Results: The findings suggest that unemployment is a source of adult and youth mental distress and of economic hardship and changes in family relations. Conclusion: Support to unemployed individuals and their families could benefit from these insights when granting the needed financial and socioemotional assistance.

Distress and unemployment: The related economic and noneconomic factors in a sample of unemployed adults

Objectives To examine the associations between economic and noneconomic factors and psychological distressin a group of 748 unemployed adults during economic recession. Methods Data were collected through a questionnaire. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were used to test the associations between distress and the deprivation of income and latent benefits of employment (time structure, activity, status, collective purpose and social contact). Results The participants’ mean of distress was higher than the national population mean, and 46.5% of the participants scored above that. All economic and noneconomic factors emerged as strong predictors of distress; particularly financial deprivation (OR 1.06; CI 95 % 1.04–1.09) and lack of structured time (OR 1.07; CI 95 % 1.05–1.09). Women (OR 1.40; CI 95 % 1.04–1.86) and people with lower education levels (OR 0.45; CI 95 % 0.34–0.61) were more affected. Conclusions The unemployed individuals score high on distress, especially those facing financial strain and lack of structured time, and women and individuals with lower education in particular. Given the recessionary context and high unemployment rates, these insights raise awareness for policies and actions targeting the needs of unemployed people.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.

Sudanese Refugee Narratives of Social Distress

This working paper provides an 'archive' of Sudanese refugee narratives of distress. The narratives have been interpreted within through the lens of Bourdieu's social distress.