'Alternate-goal bias' in antisaccades and the influence of expectation

Saccadic performance depends on the requirements of the current trial, but also may be influenced by other trials in the same experiment. This effect of trial context has been investigated most for saccadic error rate and reaction time but seldom for the positional accuracy of saccadic landing points. We investigated whether the direction of saccades towards one goal is affected by the location of a second goal used in other trials in the same experimental block. In our first experiment, landing points ('endpoints') of antisaccades but not prosaccades were shifted towards the location of the alternate goal. This spatial bias decreased with increasing angular separation between the current and alternative goals. In a second experiment, we explored whether expectancy about the goal location was responsible for the biasing of the saccadic endpoint. For this, we used a condition where the saccadic goal randomly changed from one trial to the next between locations on, above or below the horizontal meridian. We modulated the prior probability of the alternate-goal location by showing cues prior to stimulus onset. The results showed that expectation about the possible positions of the saccadic goal is sufficient to bias saccadic endpoints and can account for at least part of this phenomenon of 'alternate-goal bias'.

Efficacy of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments in non-inferiority trials: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background There is concern that non-inferiority trials might be deliberately designed to conceal that a new treatment is less effective than a standard treatment. In order to test this hypothesis we performed a meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials to assess the average effect of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments. Methods One hundred and seventy non-inferiority treatment trials published in 121 core clinical journals were included. The trials were identified through a search of PubMed (1991 to 20 February 2009). Combined relative risk (RR) from meta-analysis comparing experimental with standard treatments was the main outcome measure. Results The 170 trials contributed a total of 175 independent comparisons of experimental with standard treatments. The combined RR for all 175 comparisons was 0.994 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.978–1.010] using a random-effects model and 1.002 (95% CI 0.996–1.008) using a fixed-effects model. Of the 175 comparisons, experimental treatment was considered to be non-inferior in 130 (74%). The combined RR for these 130 comparisons was 0.995 (95% CI 0.983–1.006) and the point estimate favoured the experimental treatment in 58% (n = 76) and standard treatment in 42% (n = 54). The median non-inferiority margin (RR) pre-specified by trialists was 1.31 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1.18–1.59]. Conclusion In this meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials the average RR comparing experimental with standard treatments was close to 1. The experimental treatments that gain a verdict of non-inferiority in published trials do not appear to be systematically less effective than the standard treatments. Importantly, publication bias and bias in the design and reporting of the studies cannot be ruled out and may have skewed the study results in favour of the experimental treatments. Further studies are required to examine the importance of such bias.

3D Computerized Occlusion Rating of Embolized Experimental Aneurysms Using Noninvasive 1.5T MR Imaging

For embolized cerebral aneurysms, the initial occlusion rate is the most powerful parameter to predict aneurysm rerupture and recanalization. However, the occlusion rate is only estimated subjectively in clinical routine. To minimize subjective bias, computer occlusion-rating (COR) was successfully validated for 2D images. To minimize the remaining inaccuracy of 2D-COR, COR was applied to 1.5T 3D MR imaging.

TH2 cytokines from malignant cells suppress TH1 responses and enforce a global TH2 bias in leukemic cutaneous T-cell lymphoma

PURPOSE In leukemic cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (L-CTCL), malignant T cells accumulate in the blood and give rise to widespread skin inflammation. Patients have intense pruritus, increased immunoglobulin E (IgE), and decreased T-helper (TH)-1 responses, and most die from infection. Depleting malignant T cells while preserving normal immunity is a clinical challenge. L-CTCL has been variably described as a malignancy of regulatory, TH2 and TH17 cells. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN We analyzed phenotype and cytokine production in malignant and benign L-CTCL T cells, characterized the effects of malignant T cells on healthy T cells, and studied the immunomodulatory effects of treatment modalities in patients with L-CTCL. RESULTS Twelve out of 12 patients with L-CTCL overproduced TH2 cytokines. Remaining benign T cells were also strongly TH2 biased, suggesting a global TH2 skewing of the T-cell repertoire. Culture of benign T cells away from the malignant clone reduced TH2 and enhanced TH1 responses, but separate culture had no effect on malignant T cells. Coculture of healthy T cells with L-CTCL T cells reduced IFNγ production and neutralizing antibodies to interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 restored TH1 responses. In patients, enhanced TH1 responses were observed following a variety of treatment modalities that reduced malignant T-cell burden. CONCLUSIONS A global TH2 bias exists in both benign and malignant T cells in L-CTCL and may underlie the infectious susceptibility of patients. TH2 cytokines from malignant cells strongly inhibited TH1 responses. Our results suggest that therapies that inhibit TH2 cytokine activity, by virtue of their ability to improve TH1 responses, may have the potential to enhance both anticancer and antipathogen responses.

Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the RRT and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A wellknown method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. We therefore conducted an experimental study in which different implementations of the RRT and the CM have been tested and compared to direct questioning. Our study is a large-scale online survey on sensitive behaviors by students such as cheating in exams and paper plagiarism. The results of the study reveal poor per-formance of the RRT, while the CM yielded significantly higher estimates of sensitive behaviors than direct questioning. We conclude that the CM is a promising approach for asking sensitive questions in self-administered surveys.

Asking Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. In the context of an online survey on plagiarism and cheating on exams among students of two Swiss universities (N = 6,494), we tested different implementations of the RRT and the CM and compared them to direct questioning using a randomized experimental design. Results reveal a poor performance of the RRT, which failed to elicit higher prevalence estimates than direct questioning. Using the CM however, significantly higher prevalence estimates were obtained making it a promising new alternative to the conventional RRT.

Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Evaluation of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies indicate that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered surveys. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors from online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to overcome these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online surveys is still lacking. A new variant of the RRT called the Crosswise Model has recently been proposed to overcome some of the deficiencies of existing RRT designs. We therefore conducted an experimental study in which different implementations of the RRT, including two implementations of the crosswise model, were tested and compared to direct questioning. Our study is a large-scale online survey (N = 6,037) on sensitive behaviors by students such as cheating in exams and plagiarism. Results indicate that the crosswise-model RRT---unlike the other variants of RRT we evaluated---yields higher prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors than direct questioning. Whether higher estimates are a sufficient condition for more valid results, however, remains questionable.

School-age children show a bias toward fantasy classifications after playing a platform game

We investigated the influence of playing a video game on children’s ability to distinguish between fantasy and reality. School-age children played a platform game for 15 min and then performed a fantasy/reality distinction task in which they were to judge whether images (from the platform game and from other games) were fantasy images or reality images. Unlike those in the control group (who played a memory game), the children in the experimental group showed a response bias toward mistakenly classifying reality images from the video game as fantasy images (as determined by means of an analysis based on signal detection theory). We conclude that playing the video game exerted a short-term influence on children’s ability to distinguish between fantasy and reality.

Hindsight bias in gustatory judgments

Being in hindsight, people tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. This phenomenon has been studied for a wide variety of knowledge domains (e.g., episodes with uncertain outcomes, or solutions to almanac questions). As a result of these studies, hindsight bias turned out to be a robust phenomenon. In this paper, we present two experiments that successfully extended the domain of hindsight bias to gustatory judgments. Participants tasted different food items and were asked to estimate the quantity of a certain ingredient, for example, the residual sugar in a white wine. Judgments in both experiments were systematically biased towards previously presented low or high values that were labeled as the true quantities. Thus, hindsight bias can be considered a phenomenon that extends well beyond the judgment domains studied so far.

Three Experimental Approaches to Measure the Social Context Dependence of Prejudice Communication and Discriminatory Behavior

Empirical research on discrimination is faced with crucial problems stemming from the specific character of its object of study. In democratic societies the communication of prejudices and other forms of discriminatory behavior is considered socially undesirable and depends on situational factors such as whether a situation is considered private or whether a discriminatory consensus can be assumed. Regular surveys thus can only offer a blurred picture of the phenomenon. But also survey experiments intended to decrease the social desirability bias (SDB) so far failed in systematically implementing situational variables. This paper introduces three experimental approaches to improve the study of discrimination and other topics of social (un-)desirability. First, we argue in favor of cognitive context framing in surveys in order to operationalize the salience of situational norms. Second, factorial surveys offer a way to take situational contexts and substitute behavior into account. And third, choice experiments – a rather new method in sociology – offer a more valid method of measuring behavioral characteristics compared to simple items in surveys. All three approaches – which may be combined – are easy to implement in large-scale surveys. Results of empirical studies demonstrate the fruitfulness of each of these approaches.

Internet-based interpretation bias modification for social anxiety: A pilot study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The biased interpretation of ambiguous social situations is considered a maintaining factor of Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD). Studies on the modification of interpretation bias have shown promising results in laboratory settings. The present study aims at pilot-testing an Internet-based training that targets interpretation and judgmental bias. METHOD: Thirty-nine individuals meeting diagnostic criteria for SAD participated in an 8-week, unguided program. Participants were presented with ambiguous social situations, were asked to choose between neutral, positive, and negative interpretations, and were required to evaluate costs of potential negative outcomes. Participants received elaborate automated feedback on their interpretations and judgments. RESULTS: There was a pre-to-post-reduction of the targeted cognitive processing biases (d = 0.57-0.77) and of social anxiety symptoms (d = 0.87). Furthermore, results showed changes in depression and general psychopathology (d = 0.47-0.75). Decreases in cognitive biases and symptom changes did not correlate. The results held stable accounting for drop-outs (26%) and over a 6-week follow-up period. Forty-five percent of the completer sample showed clinical significant change and almost half of the participants (48%) no longer met diagnostic criteria for SAD. LIMITATIONS: As the study lacks a control group, results lend only preliminary support to the efficacy of the intervention. Furthermore, the mechanism of change remained unclear. CONCLUSION: First results promise a beneficial effect of the program for SAD patients. The treatment proved to be feasible and acceptable. Future research should evaluate the intervention in a randomized-controlled setting.

Current velocities and settling experimental results

This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500 km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.

Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: Experimental Results for the Randomized Response Technique (RRT) and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT)

Gaining valid answers to so-called sensitive questions is an age-old problem in survey research. Various techniques have been developed to guarantee anonymity and minimize the respondent's feelings of jeopardy. Two such techniques are the randomized response technique (RRT) and the unmatched count technique (UCT). In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of different implementations of the RRT (using a forced-response design) in a computer-assisted setting and also compare the use of the RRT to that of the UCT. The techniques are evaluated according to various quality criteria, such as the prevalence estimates they provide, the ease of their use, and respondent trust in the techniques. Our results indicate that the RRTs are problematic with respect to several domains, such as the limited trust they inspire and non-response, and that the RRT estimates are unreliable due to a strong false "no" bias, especially for the more sensitive questions. The UCT, however, performed well compared to the RRTs on all the evaluated measures. The UCT estimates also had more face validity than the RRT estimates. We conclude that the UCT is a promising alternative to RRT in self-administered surveys and that future research should be directed towards evaluating and improving the technique.

Experimental investigation on box-wing configuration for UAS

The range for airframe configurations available for UAS is as diverse as those used for manned aircraft and more since the commercial risk in trying unorthodox solutions is less for the UAS manufacturer. This is principally because the UAS airframes are usually much smaller than the manned aircraft and operators are less likely to have a bias against unconventional configurations. One of these unconventional configurations is the box-wing, which is an unconventional solution for the design of the new UAS generation. The existence of two wings separated in different planes that are, however, significantly close together, means that the aerodynamic analysis by theoretical or computational methods is a difficult task, due to the considerable interference existing. Considering the fact that the flight of most UAS takes place at low Reynolds numbers, it is necessary to study the aerodynamics of the box wing configuration by testing different models in a wind tunnel to be able to obtain reasonable results. In the present work, the study is enhanced by varying not only the sweepback angles of the two wings, but also their position along the models’ fuselage. Certain models have shown being more efficient than others, pointing out that certain relative positions of wing exists that can improve the aerodynamics efficiency of the box wing configuration.

Lidar uncertainty in complex terrain development of a bias correction methodology

El autor ha trabajado como parte del equipo de investigación en mediciones de viento en el Centro Nacional de Energías Renovables (CENER), España, en cooperación con la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid y la Universidad Técnica de Dinamarca. El presente reporte recapitula el trabajo de investigación realizado durante los últimos 4.5 años en el estudio de las fuentes de error de los sistemas de medición remota de viento, basados en la tecnología lidar, enfocado al error causado por los efectos del terreno complejo. Este trabajo corresponde a una tarea del paquete de trabajo dedicado al estudio de sistemas remotos de medición de viento, perteneciente al proyecto de intestigación europeo del 7mo programa marco WAUDIT. Adicionalmente, los datos de viento reales han sido obtenidos durante las campañas de medición en terreno llano y terreno complejo, pertenecientes al también proyecto de intestigación europeo del 7mo programa marco SAFEWIND. El principal objetivo de este trabajo de investigación es determinar los efectos del terreno complejo en el error de medición de la velocidad del viento obtenida con los sistemas de medición remota lidar. Con este conocimiento, es posible proponer una metodología de corrección del error de las mediciones del lidar. Esta metodología está basada en la estimación de las variaciones del campo de viento no uniforme dentro del volumen de medición del lidar. Las variaciones promedio del campo de viento son predichas a partir de los resultados de las simulaciones computacionales de viento RANS, realizadas para el parque experimental de Alaiz. La metodología de corrección es verificada con los resultados de las simulaciones RANS y validadas con las mediciones reales adquiridas en la campaña de medición en terreno complejo. Al inicio de este reporte, el marco teórico describiendo el principio de medición de la tecnología lidar utilizada, es presentado con el fin de familiarizar al lector con los principales conceptos a utilizar a lo largo de este trabajo. Posteriormente, el estado del arte es presentado en donde se describe los avances realizados en el desarrollo de la la tecnología lidar aplicados al sector de la energía eólica. En la parte experimental de este trabajo de investigación se ha estudiado los datos adquiridos durante las dos campañas de medición realizadas. Estas campañas has sido realizadas en terreno llano y complejo, con el fin de complementar los conocimiento adquiridos en casa una de ellas y poder comparar los efectos del terreno en las mediciones de viento realizadas con sistemas remotos lidar. La primer campaña experimental se desarrollo en terreno llano, en el parque de ensayos de aerogeneradores H0vs0re, propiedad de DTU Wind Energy (anteriormente Ris0). La segunda campaña experimental se llevó a cabo en el parque de ensayos de aerogeneradores Alaiz, propiedad de CENER. Exactamente los mismos dos equipos lidar fueron utilizados en estas campañas, haciendo de estos experimentos altamente relevantes en el contexto de evaluación del recurso eólico. Un equipo lidar está basado en tecnología de onda continua, mientras que el otro está basado en tecnología de onda pulsada. La velocidad del viento fue medida, además de con los equipos lidar, con anemómetros de cazoletas, veletas y anemómetros verticales, instalados en mástiles meteorológicos. Los sensores del mástil meteorológico son considerados como las mediciones de referencia en el presente estudio. En primera instancia, se han analizado los promedios diez minútales de las medidas de viento. El objetivo es identificar las principales fuentes de error en las mediciones de los equipos lidar causadas por diferentes condiciones atmosféricas y por el flujo no uniforme de viento causado por el terreno complejo. El error del lidar ha sido estudiado como función de varias propiedades estadísticas del viento, como lo son el ángulo vertical de inclinación, la intensidad de turbulencia, la velocidad vertical, la estabilidad atmosférica y las características del terreno. El propósito es usar este conocimiento con el fin de definir criterios de filtrado de datos. Seguidamente, se propone una metodología para corregir el error del lidar causado por el campo de viento no uniforme, producido por la presencia de terreno complejo. Esta metodología está basada en el análisis matemático inicial sobre el proceso de cálculo de la velocidad de viento por los equipos lidar de onda continua. La metodología de corrección propuesta hace uso de las variaciones de viento calculadas a partir de las simulaciones RANS realizadas para el parque experimental de Alaiz. Una ventaja importante que presenta esta metodología es que las propiedades el campo de viento real, presentes en las mediciones instantáneas del lidar de onda continua, puede dar paso a análisis adicionales como parte del trabajo a futuro. Dentro del marco del proyecto, el trabajo diario se realizó en las instalaciones de CENER, con supervisión cercana de la UPM, incluyendo una estancia de 1.5 meses en la universidad. Durante esta estancia, se definió el análisis matemático de las mediciones de viento realizadas por el equipo lidar de onda continua. Adicionalmente, los efectos del campo de viento no uniforme sobre el error de medición del lidar fueron analíticamente definidos, después de asumir algunas simplificaciones. Adicionalmente, durante la etapa inicial de este proyecto se desarrollo una importante trabajo de cooperación con DTU Wind Energy. Gracias a esto, el autor realizó una estancia de 1.5 meses en Dinamarca. Durante esta estancia, el autor realizó una visita a la campaña de medición en terreno llano con el fin de aprender los aspectos básicos del diseño de campañas de medidas experimentales, el estudio del terreno y los alrededores y familiarizarse con la instrumentación del mástil meteorológico, el sistema de adquisición y almacenamiento de datos, así como de el estudio y reporte del análisis de mediciones. ABSTRACT The present report summarizes the research work performed during last 4.5 years of investigation on the sources of lidar bias due to complex terrain. This work corresponds to one task of the remote sensing work package, belonging to the FP7 WAUDIT project. Furthermore, the field data from the wind velocity measurement campaigns of the FP7 SafeWind project have been used in this report. The main objective of this research work is to determine the terrain effects on the lidar bias in the measured wind velocity. With this knowledge, it is possible to propose a lidar bias correction methodology. This methodology is based on an estimation of the wind field variations within the lidar scan volume. The wind field variations are calculated from RANS simulations performed from the Alaiz test site. The methodology is validated against real scale measurements recorded during an eight month measurement campaign at the Alaiz test site. Firstly, the mathematical framework of the lidar sensing principle is introduced and an overview of the state of the art is presented. The experimental part includes the study of two different, but complementary experiments. The first experiment was a measurement campaign performed in flat terrain, at DTU Wind Energy H0vs0re test site, while the second experiment was performed in complex terrain at CENER Alaiz test site. Exactly the same two lidar devices, based on continuous wave and pulsed wave systems, have been used in the two consecutive measurement campaigns, making this a relevant experiment in the context of wind resource assessment. The wind velocity was sensed by the lidars and standard cup anemometry and wind vanes (installed on a met mast). The met mast sensors are considered as the reference wind velocity measurements. The first analysis of the experimental data is dedicated to identify the main sources of lidar bias present in the 10 minute average values. The purpose is to identify the bias magnitude introduced by different atmospheric conditions and by the non-uniform wind flow resultant of the terrain irregularities. The lidar bias as function of several statistical properties of the wind flow like the tilt angle, turbulence intensity, vertical velocity, atmospheric stability and the terrain characteristics have been studied. The aim of this exercise is to use this knowledge in order to define useful lidar bias data filters. Then, a methodology to correct the lidar bias caused by non-uniform wind flow is proposed, based on the initial mathematical analysis of the lidar measurements. The proposed lidar bias correction methodology has been developed focusing on the the continuous wave lidar system. In a last step, the proposed lidar bias correction methodology is validated with the data of the complex terrain measurement campaign. The methodology makes use of the wind field variations obtained from the RANS analysis. The results are presented and discussed. The advantage of this methodology is that the wind field properties at the Alaiz test site can be studied with more detail, based on the instantaneous measurements of the CW lidar. Within the project framework, the daily basis work has been done at CENER, with close guidance and support from the UPM, including an exchange period of 1.5 months. During this exchange period, the mathematical analysis of the lidar sensing of the wind velocity was defined. Furthermore, the effects of non-uniform wind fields on the lidar bias were analytically defined, after making some assumptions for the sake of simplification. Moreover, there has been an important cooperation with DTU Wind Energy, where a secondment period of 1.5 months has been done as well. During the secondment period at DTU Wind Energy, an important introductory learning has taken place. The learned aspects include the design of an experimental measurement campaign in flat terrain, the site assessment study of obstacles and terrain conditions, the data acquisition and processing, as well as the study and reporting of the measurement analysis.