The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050.The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented.

Temporal evolution and electric potential structure of the auroral acceleration region from multispacecraft measurements

Bright aurorae can be excited by the acceleration of electrons into the atmosphere in violation of ideal magnetohydrodynamics. Modelling studies predict that the accelerating electric potential consists of electric double layers at the boundaries of an acceleration region but observations suggest that particle acceleration occurs throughout this region. Using multi-spacecraft observations from Cluster we have examined two upward current regions on 14 December 2009. Our observations show that the potential difference below C4 and C3 changed by up to 1.7 kV between their respective crossings, which were separated by 150 s. The field-aligned current density observed by C3 was also larger than that observed by C4. The potential drop above C3 and C4 was approximately the same in both crossings. Using a novel technique of quantitatively comparing the electron spectra measured by Cluster 1 and 3, which were separated in altitude, we determine when these spacecraft made effectively magnetically conjugate observations and use these conjugate observations to determine the instantaneous distribution of the potential drop in the AAR. Our observations show that an average of 15% of the potential drop in the AAR was located between C1 at 6235 km and C3 at 4685 km altitude, with a maximum potential drop between the spacecraft of 500~V and that the majority of the potential drop was below C3. By assuming a spatial invariance along the length of the upward current region, we discuss these observations in terms of temporal changes and the vertical structure of the electrostatic potential drop and in the context of existing models and previous observations single- and multi-spacecraft observations.

Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet evolution during the Cenozoic Era

The Antarctic Peninsula region is currently undergoing rapid environmental change, resulting in the thinning, acceleration and recession of glaciers and the sequential collapse of ice shelves. It is important to view these changes in the context of long-term palaeoenvironmental complexity and to understand the key processes controlling ice sheet growth and recession. In addition, numerical ice sheet models require detailed geological data for tuning and testing. Therefore, this paper systematically and holistically reviews published geological evidence for Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet variability for each key locality throughout the Cenozoic, and brings together the prevailing consensus of the extent, character and behaviour of the glaciations of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Major contributions include a downloadable database of 186 terrestrial and marine calibrated dates; an original reconstruction of the LGM ice sheet; and a new series of isochrones detailing ice sheet retreat following the LGM. Glaciation of Antarctica was initiated around the Eocene/Oligocene transition in East Antarctica. Palaeogene records of Antarctic Peninsula glaciation are primarily restricted to King George Island, where glacigenic sediments provide a record of early East Antarctic glaciations, but with modification of far-travelled erratics by local South Shetland Island ice caps. Evidence for Neogene glaciation is derived primarily from King George Island and James Ross Island, where glaciovolcanic strata indicate that ice thicknesses reached 500–850 m during glacials. This suggests that the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet draped, rather than drowned, the topography. Marine geophysical investigations indicate multiple ice sheet advances during this time. Seismic profiling of continental shelf-slope deposits indicates up to ten large advances of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the Early Pleistocene, when the ice sheet was dominated by 40 kyr cycles. Glacials became more pronounced, reaching the continental shelf edge, and of longer duration during the Middle Pleistocene. During the Late Pleistocene, repeated glacials reached the shelf edge, but ice shelves inhibited iceberg rafting. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred at 18 ka BP, after which transitional glaciomarine sediments on the continental shelf indicate ice-sheet retreat. The continental shelf contains large bathymetric troughs, which were repeatedly occupied by large ice streams during Pleistocene glaciations. Retreat after the LGM was episodic in the Weddell Sea, with multiple readvances and changes in ice-flow direction, but rapid in the Bellingshausen Sea. The late Holocene Epoch was characterised by repeated fluctuations in palaeoenvironmental conditions, with associated glacial readvances. However, this has been subsumed by rapid warming and ice-shelf collapse during the twentieth century.

Paleoamerican Morphology in the Context of European and East Asian Late Pleistocene Variation: Implications for Human Dispersion Into the New World

Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Lärares beskrivningar av evolution som undervisningsinnehåll i biologi på gymnasiet

Biological evolution is part of the syllabi for Biology and Science in Swedish upper secondary school. In the syllabi, evolution is not only presented as a topic in Biology courses, but is also regarded as a unifying theme. The teacher has a fundamental role in deciding how the national curriculum is translated into the educational situation. This thesis investigates teachers’ accounts of their teaching of evolution in Swedish upper secondary school, describing their understandings of the purpose of teaching and learning evolution as part of biology education. The thesis is based on interviews of teachers teaching the course Biology A, which is compulsory as dictated by the Natural Science Program. The interviews were supplemented with questionnaires. The interviews were orientated towards questions about selection of course content and the reasons for choosing this content. The interviews were focused on teachers experiences based on their own practice. Two aspects of content were examined: (1) the scientific content taught in terms of themes and (2) the socializing value-laden aspects, such as priorities taken by the teachers and the teachers´ overarching aims.   The results showed that teachers described different teaching contents with regard to values, even when the core content of themes was similar. Four different selective traditions for choosing content were identified among teachers. The results are discussed in relation to the context and conditions that the teachers identify as influential on the content chosen. Teachers’ interactions with their students as well as their world views are important for their selection and adjustment of content. There are also indications that teachers’ personal views about purposes are important for selecting the teaching content.

Combined Vertical And Lateral Channel Evolution Numerical Modeling

Vertical stream bed erosion has been studied routinely and its modeling is getting widespread acceptance. The same cannot be said with lateral stream bank erosion since its measurement or numerical modeling is very challenging. Bank erosion, however, can be important to channel morphology. It may contribute significantly to the overall sediment budget of a stream, is a leading cause of channel migration, and is the cause of major channel maintenance. However, combined vertical and lateral channel evolution is seldom addressed. In this study, a new geofluival numerical model is developed to simulate combined vertical and lateral channel evolution. Vertical erosion is predicted with a 2D depth-averaged model SRH-2D, while lateral erosion is simulated with a linear retreat bank erosion model developed in this study. SRH-2D and the bank erosion model are coupled together both spatially and temporally through a common mesh and the same time advancement. The new geofluvial model is first tested and verified using laboratory meander channels; good agreement are obtained between predicted bank retreat and measured data. The model is then applied to a 16-kilometer reach of Chosui River, Taiwan. Vertical and lateral channel evolution during a three-year period (2004 to 2007) is simulated and results are compared with the field data. It is shown that the geofluvial model correctly captures all major erosion and deposition patterns. The new model is shown to be useful for identifying potential erosion sites and providing information for river maintenance planning.

ESR dating of pleistocene mammal teeth and its implications for the biostratigraphy and geological evolution of the coastal plain, Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Accentuated polymorphism of heterochromatin and nucleolar organizer regions in Astyanax scabripinnis (Pisces, Characidae): tools for understanding karyotypic evolution

Astyanax scabripinnis has been considered a species complex because it presents high karyotypic and morphological variability among its populations. In this work, individuals of two A. scabripinnis populations from different streams in the same hydrographic basin were analyzed through C-banding and AgNOR. Although they present distinct diploid numbers, they show meta and submetacentric chromosome groups highly conserved (numerically and morphologically). Other chromosomal characteristics are also shared by both populations, as the pattern of constitutive heterochromatin distribution (large blocks in the telomeric regions of subtelocentric and acrocentric chromosomes) and some nucleolar chromosomes. Inter-individual variations both in the number and size of heterochromatic blocks, and in the number and localization of NORs were verified in the studied populations, characterizing them as polymorphics for these regions. The mechanisms involved in the dispersion of heterochromatin and NORs through the karyotypes, as well as the possible events related to the generation of polymorphism of those regions are discussed. Furthermore, relationships between these populations and within the context of the scabripinnis complex are also approached.

Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, causal factors and evolution of a group of patients with chronic urticaria-angioedema

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: Urticária-angioedema crônico é enfermidade freqüente, complexa e multicausal. O objetivo foi estudar as características sociodemográficas, clínicas, os fatores causais, agravantes e a evolução da enfermidade. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Descritivo e prospectivo, realizado no ambulatório de Dermatologia da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp). MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados pacientes com diagnóstico de urticária-angioedema crônico através de dados sociodemográficos, anamnese, exames dermatológico, clínico e laboratorial, com ênfase nos fatores causais, agravantes e na evolução da enfermidade. RESULTADOS: 125 pacientes foram incluídos, 95 mulheres e 30 homens. Predominaram mulheres de 30 a 40 anos e homens de 10 a 20 anos. A idade média foi de 35 anos para as mulheres e 32 anos para os homens. Predominaram pacientes de raça branca, residentes em zona urbana e casados. O tempo médio de doença foi de 45,6 meses e de cada lesão foi de 5,6 horas. A metade dos casos tinha surtos diariamente e associação de urticária com angioedema. Não houve horário preferencial de aparecimento dos surtos, mas o noturno foi o horário de piora mais citado. A causa foi esclarecida em 37,6%, predominando as infecções. O estresse foi o agravante mais referido. O tempo médio de acompanhamento foi de 11,7 meses e 60% evoluíram para o controle, 32% melhoraram, 9% mantiveram-se inalterados e um caso piorou. CONCLUSÕES: Urticária-angioedema ocorreu mais em mulheres de meia-idade. A causa foi esclarecida em um terço dos pacientes e metade deles teve controle da doença em aproximadamente um ano.

Study of the evolution of the placenta and fetal pancreas in the pathophysiology of growth retardation intrauterine due to restricted maternal diet

CONTEXTO: O retardo do crescimento intra-uterino (RCIU) continua sendo importante problema em perinatologia neste final de século. A natureza do agente etiológico, o período da gestação em que ocorreu o insulto e a sua duração influenciam o tipo de RCIU. OBJETIVO: Estudar a fisiopatologia do retardo de crescimento intrauterino (RCIU) em ratas, decorrente da restrição protéico-calórica materna, em relação à evolução do pâncreas fetal e placenta entre o 18o e 21o dias de prenhez. TIPO DE ESTUDO: Ensaio clínico randomizado em animal de laboratório. PARTICIPANTES: 41 ratas prenhes, normoglicêmicas, da raça Wistar. INTERVENÇÃO: Constituíram-se seis grupos experimentais: controle, com dieta ad libitum e cesárea, respectivamente, no 18º e 21º dias; grupos dieta restritiva a 25% introduzida no 1o dia da prenhez e cesárea no 18o e 21o dias; grupos com a mesma restrição, porém iniciada no 3o dia, com cesárea no 18o e 21o dias. VARIÁVEIS ESTUDADAS: Os recém-nascidos foram classificados, em relação à média mais ou menos um desvio padrão do grupo controle, em peso pequeno (PIP), adequado (AIP) e grande (GIP) para a idade de prenhez; as placentas foram pesadas e processadas para estudo histopatológico, incluindo morfologia e histoquímica, e os pâncreas fetais, para estudo morfológico. RESULTADOS: A desnutrição protéico-calórica materna causou RCIU após o 18o dia da prenhez. Antes desse período não ocorreu RCIU, porque a desnutrição materna diminuiu o número da prole e a placenta tornou-se vicariante. A restrição alimentar não interferiu com a morfologia do pâncreas fetal, e o estudo imunohistoquímico da placenta mostrou que, quando a restrição é introduzida no 1o dia de prenhez, os estoques de glicogênio também não sofrem alterações, diminuindo entre o 18o e 21o dias, como na prenhez normal. A restrição no 3o dia cursou com baixas concentrações de glicogênio placentário no 18o dia e desaparecimento no 21o dia. CONCLUSÃO: A fisiopatologia do RCIU, decorrente da restrição protéico-calórica materna em ratas, está relacionada com menor peso placentário e baixos estoques de glicogênio placentário.

Evolution of spherical non-uniform perturbations in the universe

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Frustration and hydrophobicity interplay in protein folding and protein evolution

A lattice model is used to study mutations and compacting effects on protein folding rates and folding temperature. In the context of protein evolution, we address the question regarding the best scenario for a polypeptide chain to fold: either a fast nonspecific collapse followed by a slow rearrangement to form the native structure or a specific collapse from the unfolded state with the simultaneous formation of the native state. This question is investigated for optimized sequences, whose native state has no frustrated contacts between monomers, and also for mutated sequences, whose native state has some degree of frustration. It is found that the best scenario for folding may depend on the amount of frustration of the native structure. The implication of this result on protein evolution is discussed. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Trade and investment flows between the Caribbean and the rest of the hemisphere in the context of the FTAA

Includes bibliography