Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Prevalence and predictors of refractive error in a genetically isolated population : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence and associations of refractive error on Norfolk Island. DESIGN: Population-based study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. PARTICIPANTS: All permanent residents on Norfolk Island aged ≥ 15 years were invited to participate. METHODS: Patients underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction, slit-lamp biomicroscope examination and biometry assessment. Only phakic eyes were analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and multivariate associations of refractive error and myopia. RESULTS: There were 677 people (645 right phakic eyes, 648 left phakic eyes) aged ≥ 15 years were included in this study. Mean age of participants was 51.1 (standard deviation 15.7; range 15-81). Three hundred and seventy-six people (55.5%) were female. Adjusted to the 2006 Norfolk Island population, prevalence estimates of refractive error were as follows: myopia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ -1.0 D) 10.1%, hypermetropia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ 1.0 D) 36.6%, and astigmatism 17.7%. Significant independent predictors of myopia in the multivariate model were lower age (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001), shallower anterior chamber depth (P = 0.031) and increased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). Significant independent predictors of refractive error were increasing age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.009), Pitcairn ancestry (P = 0.041), cataract (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001) and decreased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of myopia on Norfolk Island is lower than on mainland Australia, and the Norfolk Island population demonstrates ethnic differences in the prevalence estimates. Given the significant associations between refractive error and several ocular biometry characteristics, Norfolk Island may be a useful population in which to find the genetic basis of refractive error.

Patient error : a preliminary taxonomy

PURPOSE Current research on errors in health care focuses almost exclusively on system and clinician error. It tends to exclude how patients may create errors that influence their health. We aimed to identify the types of errors that patients can contribute and help manage, especially in primary care. METHODS Eleven nominal group interviews of patients and primary health care professionals were held in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. Group members reported and helped to classify types of potential error by patients. We synthesized the ideas that emerged from the nominal groups into a taxonomy of patient error. RESULTS Our taxonomy is a 3-level system encompassing 70 potential types of patient error. The first level classifies 8 categories of error into 2 main groups: action errors and mental errors. The action errors, which result in part or whole from patient behavior, are attendance errors, assertion errors, and adherence errors. The mental errors, which are errors in patient thought processes, comprise memory errors, mindfulness errors, misjudgments, and—more distally—knowledge deficits and attitudes not conducive to health. CONCLUSION The taxonomy is an early attempt to understand and recognize how patients may err and what clinicians should aim to influence so they can help patients act safely. This approach begins to balance perspectives on error but requires further research. There is a need to move beyond seeing patient, clinician, and system errors as separate categories of error. An important next step may be research that attempts to understand how patients, clinicians, and systems interact to cocreate and reduce errors.

Visualising experimental flow fields through a stormwater gross pollutant trap

Abstract An experimental dataset representing a typical flow field in a stormwater gross pollutant trap (GPT) was visualised. A technique was developed to apply the image-based flow visualisation (IBFV) algorithm to the raw dataset. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) software was previously used to capture the flow field data by tracking neutrally buoyant particles with a high speed camera. The dataset consisted of scattered 2D point velocity vectors and the IBFV visualisation facilitates flow feature characterisation within the GPT. The flow features played a pivotal role in understanding stormwater pollutant capture and retention behaviour within the GPT. It was found that the IBFV animations revealed otherwise unnoticed flow features and experimental artefacts. For example, a circular tracer marker in the IBFV program visually highlighted streamlines to investigate the possible flow paths of pollutants entering the GPT. The investigated flow paths were compared with the behaviour of pollutants monitored during experiments.

Interocular corneal symmetry in refractive error groups

Purpose: To examine between eye differences in corneal higher order aberrations and topographical characteristics in a range of refractive error groups. Methods: One hundred and seventy subjects were recruited including; 50 emmetropic isometropes, 48 myopic isometropes (spherical equivalent anisometropia ≤ 0.75 D), 50 myopic anisometropes (spherical equivalent anisometropia ≥ 1.00 D) and 22 keratoconics. The corneal topography of each eye was captured using the E300 videokeratoscope (Medmont, Victoria, Australia) and analyzed using custom written software. All left eye data were rotated about the vertical midline to account for enantiomorphism. Corneal height data were used to calculate the corneal wavefront error using a ray tracing procedure and fit with Zernike polynomials (up to and including the eighth radial order). The wavefront was centred on the line of sight by using the pupil offset value from the pupil detection function in the videokeratoscope. Refractive power maps were analysed to assess corneal sphero-cylindrical power vectors. Differences between the more myopic (or more advanced eye for keratoconics) and the less myopic (advanced) eye were examined. Results: Over a 6 mm diameter, the cornea of the more myopic eye was significantly steeper (refractive power vector M) compared to the fellow eye in both anisometropes (0.10 ± 0.27 D steeper, p = 0.01) and keratoconics (2.54 ± 2.32 D steeper, p < 0.001) while no significant interocular difference was observed for isometropic emmetropes (-0.03 ± 0.32 D) or isometropic myopes (0.02 ± 0.30 D) (both p > 0.05). In keratoconic eyes, the between eye difference in corneal refractive power was greatest inferiorly (associated with cone location). Similarly, in myopic anisometropes, the more myopic eye displayed a central region of significant inferior corneal steepening (0.15 ± 0.42 D steeper) relative to the fellow eye (p = 0.01). Significant interocular differences in higher order aberrations were only observed in the keratoconic group for; vertical trefoil C(3,-3), horizontal coma C(3,1) secondary astigmatism along 45 C(4, -2) (p < 0.05) and vertical coma C(3,-1) (p < 0.001). The interocular difference in vertical pupil decentration (relative to the corneal vertex normal) increased with between eye asymmetry in refraction (isometropia 0.00 ± 0.09, anisometropia 0.03 ± 0.15 and keratoconus 0.08 ± 0.16 mm) as did the interocular difference in corneal vertical coma C (3,-1) (isometropia -0.006 ± 0.142, anisometropia -0.037 ± 0.195 and keratoconus -1.243 ± 0.936 μm) but only reached statistical significance for pair-wise comparisons between the isometropic and keratoconic groups. Conclusions: There is a high degree of corneal symmetry between the fellow eyes of myopic and emmetropic isometropes. Interocular differences in corneal topography and higher order aberrations are more apparent in myopic anisometropes and keratoconics due to regional (primarily inferior) differences in topography and between eye differences in vertical pupil decentration relative to the corneal vertex normal. Interocular asymmetries in corneal optics appear to be associated with anisometropic refractive development.

Identification and elimination of a matrix-induced systematic error in LA–ICP–MS 206Pb/238U dating of zircon

Black et al. (2004) identified a systematic difference between LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measurements of 206Pb/238U in zircons, which they correlated with the incompatible trace element content of the zircon. We show that the offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U correlates more strongly with the total radiogenic Pb than with any incompatible trace element. This suggests that the cause of the 206Pb/238U offset is related to differences in the radiation damage (alpha dose) between the reference and unknowns. We test this hypothesis in two ways. First, we show that there is a strong correlation between the difference in the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U and the difference in the alpha dose received by unknown and reference zircons. The LA–ICP–MS ages for the zircons we have dated can be as much as 5.1% younger than their TIMS age to 2.1% older, depending on whether the unknown or reference received the higher alpha dose. Second, we show that by annealing both reference and unknown zircons at 850 °C for 48 h in air we can eliminate the alpha-dose-induced differences in measured 206Pb/238U. This was achieved by analyzing six reference zircons a minimum of 16 times in two round robin experiments: the first consisting of unannealed zircons and the second of annealed grains. The maximum offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U for the unannealed zircons was 2.3%, which reduced to 0.5% for the annealed grains, as predicted by within-session precision based on counting statistics. Annealing unknown zircons and references to the same state prior to analysis holds the promise of reducing the 3% external error for the measurement of 206Pb/238U of zircon by LA–ICP–MS, indicated by Klötzli et al. (2009), to better than 1%, but more analyses of annealed zircons by other laboratories are required to evaluate the true potential of the annealing method.

Error modeling and calibration of exteroceptive sensors for accurate mapping applications

Reliable robotic perception and planning are critical to performing autonomous actions in uncertain, unstructured environments. In field robotic systems, automation is achieved by interpreting exteroceptive sensor information to infer something about the world. This is then mapped to provide a consistent spatial context, so that actions can be planned around the predicted future interaction of the robot and the world. The whole system is as reliable as the weakest link in this chain. In this paper, the term mapping is used broadly to describe the transformation of range-based exteroceptive sensor data (such as LIDAR or stereo vision) to a fixed navigation frame, so that it can be used to form an internal representation of the environment. The coordinate transformation from the sensor frame to the navigation frame is analyzed to produce a spatial error model that captures the dominant geometric and temporal sources of mapping error. This allows the mapping accuracy to be calculated at run time. A generic extrinsic calibration method for exteroceptive range-based sensors is then presented to determine the sensor location and orientation. This allows systematic errors in individual sensors to be minimized, and when multiple sensors are used, it minimizes the systematic contradiction between them to enable reliable multisensor data fusion. The mathematical derivations at the core of this model are not particularly novel or complicated, but the rigorous analysis and application to field robotics seems to be largely absent from the literature to date. The techniques in this paper are simple to implement, and they offer a significant improvement to the accuracy, precision, and integrity of mapped information. Consequently, they should be employed whenever maps are formed from range-based exteroceptive sensor data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

UV Photodissociation Action Spectroscopy of Haloanilinium Ions in a Linear Quadrupole Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer

UV-vis photodissociation action spectroscopy is becoming increasingly prevalent because of advances in, and commercial availability of, ion trapping technologies and tunable laser sources. This study outlines in detail an instrumental arrangement, combining a commercial ion-trap mass spectrometer and tunable nanosecond pulsed laser source, for performing fully automated photodissociation action spectroscopy on gas-phase ions. The components of the instrumentation are outlined, including the optical and electronic interfacing, in addition to the control software for automating the experiment and performing online analysis of the spectra. To demonstrate the utility of this ensemble, the photodissociation action spectra of 4-chloroanilinium, 4-bromoanilinium, and 4-iodoanilinium cations are presented and discussed. Multiple photoproducts are detected in each case and the photoproduct yields are followed as a function of laser wavelength. It is shown that the wavelength-dependent partitioning of the halide loss, H loss, and NH3 loss channels can be broadly rationalized in terms of the relative carbon-halide bond dissociation energies and processes of energy redistribution. The photodissociation action spectrum of (phenyl)Ag-2 (+) is compared with a literature spectrum as a further benchmark.

Ozone-Induced Dissociation on a Modified Tandem Linear Ion-Trap : Observations of Different Reactivity for Isomeric Lipids

Ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) exploits the gas-phase reaction between mass-selected lipid ions and ozone vapor to determine the position(s) of unsaturation In this contribution, we describe the modification of a tandem linear ion-trap mass spectrometer specifically for OzID analyses wherein ozone vapor is supplied to the collision cell This instrumental configuration provides spatial separation between mass-selection, the ozonolysis reaction, and mass-analysis steps in the OzID process and thus delivers significant enhancements in speed and sensitivity (ca 30-fold) These improvements allow spectra revealing the double-bond position(s) within unsaturated lipids to be acquired within 1 s significantly enhancing the utility of OzID in high-throughput lipidomic protocols The stable ozone concentration afforded by this modified instrument also allows direct comparison of relative reactivity of isomeric lipids and reveals reactivity trends related to (1) double-bond position, (2) substitution position on the glycerol backbone, and (3) stereochemistry For cis- and trans-isomers, differences were also observed in the branching ratio of product ions arising from the gas-phase ozonolysis reaction, suggesting that relative ion abundances could be exploited as markers for double-bond geometry Additional activation energy applied to mass-selected lipid ions during injection into the collision cell (with ozone present) was found to yield spectra containing both OzID and classical-CID fragment ions This combination CID-OzID acquisition on an ostensibly simple monounsaturated phosphatidylcholine within a cow brain lipid extract provided evidence for up to four structurally distinct phospholipids differing in both double-bond position and sn-substitution U Am Soc Mass Spectrom 2010, 21, 1989-1999) (C) 2010 American Society for Mass Spectrometry

Reactions of the hydroperoxide anion with dimethyl methylphosphonate in an ion trap mass spectrometer : evidence for a gas phase alpha-effect

The gas phase degradation reactions of the chemical warfare agent (CWA) simulant, dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP), with the hydroperoxide anion (HOO(-)) were investigated using a modified quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. The HOO(-) anion reacts readily with neutral DMMP forming two significant product ions at m/z 109 and m/z 123. The major reaction pathways correspond to (i) the nucleophilic substitution at carbon to form \[CH(3)P(O)(OCH(3))O](-) (m/z 109) in a highly exothermic process and (ii) exothermic proton transfer. The branching ratios of the two reaction pathways, 89% and 11% respectively, indicate that the former reaction is significantly faster than the latter. This is in contrast to the trend for the methoxide anion with DMMP, where proton transfer dominates. The difference in the observed reactivities of the HOO(-) and CH(3)O(-) anions can be considered as evidence for an a-effect in the gas phase and is supported by electronic structure calculations at the B3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ//B3LYP/6-31+G(d) level of theory that indicate the S(N)2(carbon) process has an activation energy 7.8 kJ mol(-1) lower for HOO(-) as compared to CH(3)O(-). A similar alpha-effect was calculated for nucleophilic addition-elimination at phosphorus, but this process an important step in the perhydrolysis degradation of CWAs in solution - was not observed to occur with DMMP in the gas phase. A theoretical investigation revealed that all processes are energetically accessible with negative activation energies. However, comparison of the relative Arrhenius pre-exponential factors indicate that substitution at phosphorus is not kinetically competitive with respect to the S(N)2(carbon) and deprotonation processes.

Charge transport and density of trap states in balanced high mobility ambipolar organic thin-film transistors

We report on charge transport and density of trap states (trap DOS) in ambipolar diketopyrrolopyrrole-benzothiadiazole copolymer thin-film transistors. This semiconductor possesses high electron and hole field-effect mobilities of up to 0.6 cm 2/V-s. Temperature and gate-bias dependent field-effect mobility measurements are employed to extract the activation energies and trap DOS to understand its unique high mobility balanced ambipolar charge transport properties. The symmetry between the electron and hole transport characteristics, parameters and activation energies is remarkable. We believe that our work is the first charge transport study of an ambipolar organic/polymer based field-effect transistor with room temperature mobility higher than 0.1 cm 2/V-s in both electrons and holes.

The capture and retention evaluation of a stormwater gross pollutant trap design

Gross pollutant traps (GPT) are designed to capture and retain visible street waste, such as anthropogenic litter and organic matter. Blocked screens, low/high downstream tidal waters and flows operating above/below the intended design limits can hamper the operations of a stormwater GPT. Under these adverse operational conditions, a recently developed GPT was evaluated. Capture and retention experiments were conducted on a 50% scale model with partially and fully blocked screens, placed inside a hydraulic flume. Flows were established through the model via an upstream channel-inlet configuration. Floatable, partially buoyant, neutrally buoyant and sinkable spheres were released into the GPT and monitored at the outlet. These experiments were repeated with a pipe-inlet configured GPT. The key findings from the experiments were of practical significance to the design, operation and maintenance of GPTs. These involved an optimum range of screen blockages and a potentially improved inlet design for efficient gross pollutant capture/retention operations. For example, the outlet data showed that the capture and retention efficiency deteriorated rapidly when the screens were fully blocked. The low pressure drop across the retaining screens and the reduced inlet flow velocities were either insufficient to mobilise the gross pollutants, or the GPT became congested.

Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Density of trap states in a polymer field-effect transistor

We report a more accurate method to determine the density of trap states in a polymer field-effect transistor. In the approach, we describe in this letter, we take into consideration the sub-threshold behavior in the calculation of the density of trap states. This is very important since the sub-threshold regime of operation extends to fairly large gate voltages in these disordered semiconductor based transistors. We employ the sub-threshold drift-limited mobility model (for sub-threshold response) and the conventional linear mobility model for above threshold response. The combined use of these two models allows us to extract the density of states from charge transport data much more accurately. We demonstrate our approach by analyzing data from diketopyrrolopyrrole based co-polymer transistors with high mobility. This approach will also work well for other disordered semiconductors in which sub-threshold conduction is important.

Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.