Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Seasonal variability of rainfall recorded in growth bands of the Giant African Land Snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from India

Seasonal rainfall patterns in Bangalore, India, have been reconstructed using stable isotopic ratios in the growth bands of Giant African Land Snail shells. The present study was conducted at Bangalore, India which receives rain during the summer months. The oxygen isotopic record in the rainwater samples collected during different months covering the period of the summer monsoon of the year 2008 is compared with the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands deposited simultaneously. The chronology of the shell growth band is independently established assuming the growth rate observed in a chamber experiment maintaining similar relative humidity and temperature conditions. A consistent pattern observed in the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands and rainwater is demonstrated and provides a novel approach for precipitation reconstruction at seasonal and weekly time scales. This approach of using isotopic ratios in the gastropod growth bands for rainfall can serve as a substitute for filling gaps in rainfall data and for cases where no rain records are available. In addition, they can be used to determine the frequencies and magnitudes of dry spells from the past records. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An assessment of terrestrial water storage, rainfall and river discharge over Northern India from satellite data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a key role in the global water cycle and is highly influenced by climate variability and human activities. In this study, monthly TWS, rainfall and Ganga-Brahmaputra river discharge (GBRD) are analysed over India for the period of 2003-12 using remote sensing satellite data. The spatial pattern of mean TWS shows a decrease over a large and populous region of Northern India comprising the foothills of the Himalayas, the Indo-Gangetic Plains and North East India. Over this region, the mean monthly TWS exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle and a large interannual variability, highly correlated with rainfall and GBRD variations (r > 0.8) with a lag time of 2 months and 1 month respectively. The time series of monthly TWS shows a consistent and statistically significant decrease of about 1 cm year(-1) over Northern India, which is not associated with changes in rainfall and GBRD. This recent change in TWS suggests a possible impact of rapid industrialization, urbanization and increase in population on land water resources. Our analysis highlights the potential of the Earth-observation satellite data for hydrological applications.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

Modeling on Runoff Concentration Caused by Rainfall on Hillslopes and Application in Maoping Slope

Based on the fact that the concentration flowlines of overland flow depend on the surface landform of hillslope, a kinematic wave model was developed for simulating runoff generation and flow concentration caused by rainfall on hillslopes. The model-simulated results agree well with experimental observations. Applying the model to the practical case of Maoping slope, we obtained the characteristics of runoff generation and infiltration on the slope. Especially, the simulated results adequately reflected the confluent pattern of surface runoff, which offers a scientific foundation for designing the drainage engineering on the Maoping slope.

Relationships between ENSO events and San Francisco rainfall, 1949-1991

As California entered its sixth consecutive year of drought, the onset of a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific and other indicators of a developing ENSO event were observed. This brought the following question from the media, water officials, and the public: What effect will El Niño have on the current rainfall season in general and on the intraseasonal distribution of rain in particular? To answer the question, the historical San Francisco rainfall record was examined in relationship to previous ENSO events.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Part I: Historical data synthesis

From the 1940s until 2003, portions of the island of Vieques, a municipality within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, were used by the US Navy as a base and training facility, resulting in development and zoning history that differ in comparison to other Caribbean islands. The majority of former Navy lands are now under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service as a National Wildlife Refuge, while a smaller percentage of land was transferred to the Vieques municipality and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. An analysis of the distribution and status of the marine resources is timely in light of the recent land transfer, increases in development and tourism, and potential changes in marine zoning around the island. To meet this need, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch, in cooperation with the Office of Response and Restoration and other local and regional partners, conducted Part I of an ecological characterization to integrate historical data and research into a synthesis report. The overall objective of this report is to provide resource managers and residents a comprehensive characterization of the marine resources of Vieques to support research, monitoring, and management. For example, knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical features, habitats, and biological communities is necessary to make an informed decision of the establishment and placement of a marine protected area (MPA). The report is divided into chapters based on the physical environment (e.g., climate, geology, bathymetry), habitat types (e.g., reefs and hardbottom, seagrasses, mangroves) and major faunal groups (e.g. fish, turtles, birds). Each section includes five subsections: an overview, description of the relevant literature, methods of analysis, information on the distribution, status and trends of the particular resource, and a discussion of ecological linkages with other components of the Vieques marine ecosystem and surrounding environment. The physical environment of Vieques is similar to other islands within the Greater Antilles chain, with some distinctions. The warm, tropical climate of Vieques, mediated by the northeasterly trade winds, is characterized by a dry season (December-April) and a rainy season (May-November), the latter of which is characterized by the occasional passage of tropical cyclones. Compared to mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques is characterized by lower elevation, less annual precipitation, and higher average temperatures. The amount of annual precipitation also varies spatially within Vieques, with the western portion of the island receiving higher amounts of rainfall than further east. While the North Equatorial Current dominates the circulation pattern in the Greater Antilles region, small scale current patterns specific to Vieques are not as well characterized. These physical processes are important factors mitigating the distribution and composition of marine benthic habitats around Vieques. In general, the topography of Vieques is characterized by rolling hills. Mt. Pirata, the tallest point at 301 m, is located near the southwest coast. In the absence of island wide sedimentation measurements, information on land cover, slope, precipitation, and soil type were used to estimate relative erosion potential and sediment delivery for each watershed. While slope and precipitation amount are the primary driving factors controlling runoff, land use practices such as urban development, military activity, road construction, and agriculture can increase the delivery of pollution and sediments to coastal waters. Due to the recent land transfer, increased development and tourism is expected, which may result in changes in the input of sediments to the coastal environment.

Pacific sea surface temperature associations with southwestern United States summer rainfall and atmospheric circulation

Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined for their associations with (1) summer rainfall, and (2) the latitude location of the mid-tropospheric subtropical high pressure ridge (STR) in the southwestern United States during 1945 to 1986. Extreme northward (southward) displacements of STR are associated with wet (dry) summers over Arizona and an enhanced (weakened) gradient of SST off the California and Baja coasts. These tend to follow winters marked by positive (negative) phases of the PNA, Pacific/North America, teleconnection pattern. Recent decadal variations of Arizona summer rainfall (1950s wet; 1970s dry) appear similarly related to southwestern United States synoptic circulation and eastern Pacific SSTs.

One hundred years of rainfall trends in California

This paper is an examination of precipitation trends in California for 100 years based on 96 rain records. The study resulted from an attempt to develop a wetness index for the San Francisco Bay area, where declining rainfall trends indicated a lot more rainfall in the first 50 years of the study period. A regular pattern of decline was found in California coastal stations, concurrent with an increasing trend at inland stations.

Early expressed genes showing a dichotomous developing pattern in the lancelet embryo

Lancelets (amphioxus), although showing the most similar anatomical features to vertebrates, never develop a vertebrate-like head but rather several structures specific to this animal. The lancelet anatomical specificity seems to be traceable to early developmental stages, such as the vertebrate dorsal and anterior-posterior determinations. The BMP and Wnt proteins play important roles in establishing the early basis of the dorsal structures and the head in vertebrates. The early behavior of BMP and Wnt may be also related to the specific body structures of lancelets. The expression patterns of a dpp-related gene, Bbbmp2/4, and two wnt-related genes, Bbwnt7 and Bbwnt8, have been studied in comparison with those of brachyury and Hnf-3 beta class genes The temporal expression patterns of these genes are similar to those of vertebrates; Bbbmp2/4 and Bbwnt8 are first expressed in the invaginating primitive gut and the equatorial region. respectively, at the initial gastrula stage. However, spatial expression pattern of Bbbmp2/4 differs significantly from the vertebrate cognates. It is expressed in the mid-dorsal inner layer of gastrulae and widely in the anterior region, in which vertebrates block BMP signaling, The present study suggests that the lancelet embryo may have two distinct developmental domains from the gastrula stage, the domains of which coincide later with the lateral diverticular and the somitocoelomic regions. The embryonic origin of the anterior-specific structures in lancelets corresponds to the anterior domain where Bbbmp2/4 is continuously expressed.

An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the equatorial Pacific circulation

To investigate the interaction between the tropical Pacific and China seas a variable-grid global ocean circulation model with fine grid[(1/6)degrees] covering the area from 20degreesS to 50degreesN and from 99degrees to 150degreesE is developed. Numerical computation of the annually cyclic circulation fields is performed. The results of the annual mean zonal currents and deep to abyssal western boundary currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are reported. The North Equatorial Current,the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are fairly well simulated. The model well reproduces the northward flowing abyssal western boundary current. From the model results a lower deep western boundary current east of the Bismarck-Solomon-New Hebrides Island chain at depths around 2 000 in has been found. The model results also show that the currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have multi-layer structures both in zonal currents and western boundary currents, indicating that the global ocean overturning thermohaline circulation appears of multi-layer pattern.

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.