Chromatographic recovery of chemicals from acidic biomass hydrolysates

Lignocellulosic biomasses (e.g., wood and straws) are a potential renewable source for the production of a wide variety of chemicals that could be used to replace those currently produced by petrochemical industry. This would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions and waste amounts, and to economical savings. There are many possible pathways available for the manufacturing of chemicals from lignocellulosic biomasses. One option is to hydrolyze the cellulose and hemicelluloses of these biomasses into monosaccharides using concentrated sulfuric acid as catalyst. This process is an efficient method for producing monosaccharides which are valuable platforn chemicals. Also other valuable products are formed in the hydrolysis. Unfortunately, the concentrated acid hydrolysis has been deemed unfeasible mainly due to high chemical consumption resulting from the need to remove sulfuric acid from the obtained hydrolysates prior to the downstream processing of the monosaccharides. Traditionally, this has been done by neutralization with lime. This, however, results in high chemical consumption. In addition, the by-products formed in the hydrolysis are not removed and may, thus, hinder the monosaccharide processing. In order to improve the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis, the chemical consumption should be decreased by recycling of sulfuric acid without neutralization. Furthermore, the monosaccharides and the other products formed in the hydrolysis should be recovered selectively for efficient downstream processing. The selective recovery of the hydrolysis by-products would have additional economical benefits on the process due to their high value. In this work, the use of chromatographic fractionation for the recycling of sulfuric acid and the selective recovery of the main components from the hydrolysates formed in the concentrated acid hydrolysis was investigated. Chromatographic fractionation based on the electrolyte exclusion with gel type strong acid cation exchange resins in acid (H+) form as a stationary phase was studied. A systematic experimental and model-based study regarding the separation task at hand was conducted. The phenomena affecting the separation were determined and their effects elucidated. Mathematical models that take accurately into account these phenomena were derived and used in the simulation of the fractionation process. The main components of the concentrated acid hydrolysates (sulfuric acid, monosaccharides, and acetic acid) were included into this model. Performance of the fractionation process was investigated experimentally and by simulations. Use of different process options was also studied. Sulfuric acid was found to have a significant co-operative effect on the sorption of the other components. This brings about interesting and beneficial effects in the column operations. It is especially beneficial for the separation of sulfuric acid and the monosaccharides. Two different approaches for the modelling of the sorption equilibria were investigated in this work: a simple empirical approach and a thermodynamically consistent approach (the Adsorbed Solution theory). Accurate modelling of the phenomena observed in this work was found to be possible using the simple empirical models. The use of the Adsorbed Solution theory is complicated by the nature of the theory and the complexity of the studied system. In addition to the sorption models, a dynamic column model that takes into account the volume changes of the gel type resins as changing resin bed porosity was also derived. Using the chromatography, all the main components of the hydrolysates can be recovered selectively, and the sulfuric acid consumption of the hydrolysis process can be lowered considerably. Investigation of the performance of the chromatographic fractionation showed that the highest separation efficiency in this separation task is obtained with a gel type resin with a high crosslinking degree (8 wt. %); especially when the hydrolysates contain high amounts of acetic acid. In addition, the concentrated acid hydrolysis should be done with as low sulfuric acid concentration as possible to obtain good separation performance. The column loading and flow rate also have large effects on the performance. In this work, it was demonstrated that when recycling of the fractions obtained in the chromatographic fractionation are recycled to preceding unit operations these unit operations should included in the performance evaluation of the fractionation. When this was done, the separation performance and the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis process were found to improve considerably. Use of multi-column chromatographic fractionation processes, the Japan Organo process and the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography process, was also investigated. In the studied case, neither of these processes could compete with the single-column batch process in the productivity. However, due to internal recycling steps, the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography was found to be superior to the batch process when the product yield and the eluent consumption were taken into account.

Osmotic dehydration of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) in ternary solutions

The aim of this work was to evaluate the osmotic dehydration of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) using hypertonic sucrose solutions, with or without NaCl, at three different concentrations, at 40 °C. Highest water losses were obtained when the mixture of sucrose and NaCl was used. The addition of NaCl to osmotic solutions increases the driving force of the process and it is verified that the osmotic dehydration process is mainly influenced by changes in NaCl concentration, but the positive effect of the salt-sucrose interaction on soluble solids also determined the decrease of solid gain when solutes were at maximum concentrations. Mass transfer kinetics were modeled according to Peleg, Fick and Page's equations, which presented good fittings of the experimental data. Peleg's equation and Page's model presented the best fitting and showed excellent predictive capacity for water loss and salt gain data. The effective diffusivity determined using Fick's Second Law applied to slice geometry was found to be in the range from 3.82 x 10-11 to 7.46 x 10-11 m²/s for water loss and from 1.18 x 10-10 to 3.38 x 10-11 m²/s for solid gain.

Mathematical modeling of dehydration of 'Fuji' and 'Gala' apples slices using infrared

The objective of this work was to determine and model the infrared dehydration curves of apple slices - Fuji and Gala varieties. The slices were dehydrated until constant mass, in a prototype dryer with infrared heating source. The applied temperatures ranged from 50 to 100 °C. Due to the physical characteristics of the product, the dehydration curve was divided in two periods, constant and falling, separated by the critical moisture content. A linear model was used to describe the constant dehydration period. Empirical models traditionally used to model the drying behavior of agricultural products were fitted to the experimental data of the falling dehydration period. Critical moisture contents of 2.811 and 3.103 kgw kgs-1 were observed for the Fuji and Gala varieties, respectively. Based on the results, it was concluded that the constant dehydration rates presented a direct relationship with the temperature; thus, it was possible to fit a model that describes the moisture content variation in function of time and temperature. Among the tested models, which describe the falling dehydration period, the model proposed by Midilli presented the best fit for all studied conditions.

Thermodynamic properties of water sorption of jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam.) as a function of moisture content

The Jackfruit tree is one of the most significant trees in tropical home gardens and perhaps the most widespread and useful tree in the important genus Artocarpus. The fruit is susceptible to mechanical and biological damage in the mature state, and some people find the aroma of the fruit objectionable, particularly in confined spaces. The dehydration process could be an alternative for the exploitation of this product, and the relationship between moisture content and water activity provides useful information for its processing and storage. The aim of this study was to determine the thermodynamic properties of the water sorption of jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam.) as a function of moisture content. Desorption isotherms of the different parts of the jackfruit (pulp, peduncle, mesocarp, peel, and seed) were determined at four different temperatures (313.15, 323.15, 333.15, and 343.15 K) in a water activity range of 0.02-0.753 using the static gravimetric method. Theoretical and empirical models were used to model the desorption isotherms. An analytical solution of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation was proposed to calculate the isosteric heat of sorption, the differential entropy, and Gibbs' free energy using the Guggenhein-Anderson-de Boer and Oswin models considering the effect of temperature on the hygroscopic equilibrium.

Analysis of applicability of Peleg model to the cooking-infusion of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) slices

Mass transfer kinetics in osmotic dehydration is usually modeled by Fick's law, empirical models and probabilistic models. The aim of this study was to determine the applicability of Peleg model to investigate the mass transfer during osmotic dehydration of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) slices at different temperatures. Osmotic dehydration was performed on mackerel slices by cooking-infusion in solutions with glycerol and salt (a w = 0.64) at different temperatures: 50, 70, and 90 ºC. Peleg rate constant (K1) (h(g/gdm)-1) varied with temperature variation from 0.761 to 0.396 for water loss, from 5.260 to 2.947 for salt gain, and from 0.854 to 0.566 for glycerol intake. In all cases, it followed the Arrhenius relationship (R²>0.86). The Ea (kJ / mol) values obtained were 16.14; 14.21, and 10.12 for water, salt, and glycerol, respectively. The statistical parameters that qualify the goodness of fit (R²>0.91 and RMSE<0.086) indicate promising applicability of Peleg model.

Study of the enthalpy-entropy mechanism from water sorption of orange seeds (C. sinensis cv. Brazilian) for the use of agro-industrial residues as a possible source of vegetable oil production

Orange seeds are a promising agroindustry-waste which can be implemented in the extraction and production of vegetable oil. The relationship between moisture content and water activity provides useful information for the processing and storage of this waste item. The aim of this study was to determine the mechanism of water sorption enthalpy-entropy of orange seeds (C. sinensis cv. Brazilians) according to the moisture content. Therefore, desorption isotherms were determined at five different temperature (30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 ºC) under a wide range of moisture content (0.005-0.057 kg kg-1 d.b.) and water activity (0.02-0.756). Theoretical and empirical models were used for modeling the desorption isotherms. An analytical solution of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation was proposed to compute the isosteric heat of sorption, the differential entropy, and Gibbs free energy using the Oswin model when the effect of temperature on the hygroscopic equilibrium was considered.

Intégration du concept de capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore à l’aménagement du territoire au Québec : Réalité ou utopie?

Ce mémoire a comme objectif de présenter une revue de la littérature et une analyse comparative des différents modèles existants pour le calcul de la capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore. Ce document a aussi pour but d’évaluer les différentes options pour l’utilisation de ce genre d’outil au Québec, ainsi que d’amorcer une réflexion sur les applications possibles de ce concept au niveau local, en lien avec l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. L’analyse comparative des modèles théoriques, combinée à la réflexion d’acteurs clés impliqués actuellement dans un processus qui consiste à tester leur utilisation dans les Laurentides au Québec, a permis de mettre en relief l’importance de calibrer les modèles régionalement. De plus, certains avantages semblent résider dans l’utilisation d’un modèle de nature empirique afin d’effectuer les prédictions sur les apports naturels et totaux en phosphore pour les lacs de cette région. Par contre, l’utilisation d’une approche de type « bilan de masse », s’avère tout de même indispensable afin de relativiser l’importance des différents apports anthropiques en phosphore du bassin versant. Dans l’avenir, l’utilisation de tels modèles permettra possiblement de justifier certaines mesures restrictives au développement des bassins versants, qui pourront s’insérer parmi les outils d’urbanisme actuels. Ce sont principalement les municipalités qui détiennent les pouvoirs nécessaires afin d’intégrer les prescriptions découlant de ce genre d’analyse à l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. Plusieurs outils d’urbanisme, tels que les plans d’aménagement d’ensemble (PAE) ou bien les règlements de zonage et de lotissement, semblent donner assez de latitude afin de permettre aux municipalités d’intervenir en ce sens. Toutefois, les modèles de capacité de support ne pourront pas être utilisés afin de calculer un nombre précis d’habitations qu’il est possible de construire dans le bassin versant d’un lac.

Recherche et caractérisation des étoiles jeunes de faible masse dans le voisinage solaire

L'outil développé dans le cadre de cette thèse est disponible à l'adresse suivante: www.astro.umontreal.ca/~malo/banyan.php

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Asymmetric response of demand-supply mismatch to investor's sentiment

We look through both the demand and supply side information to understand dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine how accurately investors’ attitudes predict the market returns and thereby flagging off extent of any demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis is based on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation/offer prices may indicate impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. In the process, we study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995-2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles and in various stages of those cycles. Additionally, we also seek to understand how investors’ attitude or the sentiment affects the market activity over the cycles through asymmetric responses. We test our hypothesis variously using a number of measures of market activity and attitude indicators within several model specifications. The empirical models are estimated using Vector Error Correction framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude exert strong and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. Moreover, these effects do reveal heterogeneous responses across the real estate sectors. Interestingly, our results indicate the asymmetric responses during boom, normal and recessionary periods. These results are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings.

Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

The kinetics of thermal generation of flavour

Control and optimization of flavor is the ultimate challenge for the food and flavor industry. The major route to flavor formation during thermal processing is the Maillard reaction, which is a complex cascade of interdependent reactions initiated by the reaction between a reducing sugar and an amino compd. The complexity of the reaction means that researchers turn to kinetic modeling in order to understand the control points of the reaction and to manipulate the flavor profile. Studies of the kinetics of flavor formation have developed over the past 30 years from single- response empirical models of binary aq. systems to sophisticated multi-response models in food matrixes, based on the underlying chem., with the power to predict the formation of some key aroma compds. This paper discusses in detail the development of kinetic models of thermal generation of flavor and looks at the challenges involved in predicting flavor.