Effects of surface roughness on airframe noise

The generation of sound by turbulent boundary layer flow at low Mach number over a rough wall is investigated by applying the theoretical model which describes the scattering of the turbulence near field into sound by roughness elements. Attention is focused on the numerical method to approximately quantify the absolute level of the roughness noise radiated to far field. Empirical models for the source statistics are obtained by scaling smooth-wall data through increased skin friction velocity and boundary layer thickness for the rough surface. Numerical integration is performed to determine the roughness noise, and it reproduces the spectral characteristics of the available empirical formula and experimental data. Experiments are conducted to measure the radiated sound from two rough plates in an open jet by four 1/2'' free-field condenser microphones. The measured noise spectra of the rough plates are above that of a smooth plate in 1-2.5 kHz frequency and exhibits encouraging agreement with the predicted spectra. Also, a phased microphone array is utilized to localize the sound source, and it confirms that the rough plates generate higher source strengthes in this frequency range. A parametric study illustrates that the roughness height and roughness density significantly affect the far-field radiated roughness noise with the roughness height having the dominant effect. The estimates of the roughness noise for a Boeing 757 sized aircraft wing show that in high frequency region the sound radiated from surface roughness may exceed that from the trailing edge, and higher overall sound pressure levels for the roughness noise are also observed.

Herramientas y métodos para la caracterización de la sostenibilidad socio, productivo, ambiental en áreas representativas de la cuenca del río Carcarañá, en el sur de la provincia de Santa Fe

Resumen: El presente trabajo aborda la caracterización socio-ambiental de un tramo de la cuenca del Río Carcarañá que atraviesa el sur de la Provincia de Santa Fe, en Argentina. El sector de interés ha sido especialmente afectado por el desarrollo de la agricultura extensiva que, si bien ha sido un elemento determinante del crecimiento económico y de la expansión tanto de las áreas de uso agropecuario, como del medio urbano y recreacional hacia el rural, ha sido sometido a un uso extensivo que requiere analizar la vulnerabilidad ambiental de la cuenca por pérdida de bienes y servicios ecosistémicos, evaluar el soporte ambiental, el uso de los recursos y la sostenibilidad ambiental. Para lograr este objetivo se propone el empleo de La metodologia multimodal, para generar un marco de evaluaciones tanto sociales como biofísicas y energéticas y además bosquejar modelos empíricos y/o teóricos que permitan interpretar la dinámica de los diferentes contaminantes en la cuenca, así como las preocupaciones de la población con relación a estos temas.

El componente de selección adversa de la horquilla de precios cotizada: una revisión de los modelos de estimación

[ES] Una de las principales preocupaciones en el área de la microestructura del mercado ha sido la estimación de los componentes no observables de la horquilla de precios a partir de las series de datos que proporcionan los mercados financieros, despertando quizá un mayor interés el de selección adversa por la implicaciones que supone la existencia del mismo. Esto ha provocado el desarrollo de numerosos modelos empíricos que, basándose en las propiedades estadísticas de las series de precios, proporcionan dichas estimaciones. La mayor disponibilidad de datos existentes en los mercados ha permitido el desarrollo en los últimos años de modelos basados en técnicas estadísticas más complejas como son el método generalizado de momentos o la metodología VAR y cuya base de partida es la dinámica de la formación del precio, y, en concreto, cómo la información privada de las transacciones se recoge en los nuevos precios cotizados. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar este último grupo de trabajos, es decir, aquellos modelos de estimación de los componentes de la horquilla basados en la dinámica de la formación de precios que, además de permitir la estimación del componente de selección adversa en series temporales, suponen una herramienta fundamental para analizar el proceso de incorporación de la información a los precios cotizados en los distintos mercados.

Evaluación del rendimiento pesquero potencial de la República Argentina: II. Evaluación por regiones

A limnological and fish survey program was developed in 110 lakes and reservoirs of Argentina during the summers of 1984 to 1987. Lakes and reservoirs were visited once, except for six situated in the Chubut Province that were studied seasonally over the course of two years. The sampling surveys were performed by the "Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero" and the "Provincia de Chubut". Here we present preliminary results of potential fish yield assessment on a regional basis, using empirical models. (Document contains 11 pages.)

Development of selection methods for steels and their heat treatments

Designers who want to manufacture a hardenable steel component need to select both the steel and its heat treatment. This project aims to develop a selection methodology for steels and process routes as an aid to designers. Three studies were conducted: - production of software to calculate the "equivalent diameter" and "equivalent Jominy distance" for simple shapes of a steel component; - prediction of semi-empirical Jominy curves (as-cooled) using CCT diagrams and process modelling methods, which were validated by experiment on plain carbon steels; - investigation of tempering of Jominy bars to explore the potential for semi-empirical models for the hardness after tempering.

A reassessment of equations for predicting natural mortality in Mediterranean teleosts

This brief article presents new empirical models for prediction of natural mortality (M) from growth parameters (L and K, W and K) in Mediterranean teleosts, based on 56 data sets presented in an earlier paper in the January 1993 issue of Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly in which models were presented that included temperature as a predictor variable, although its effect was nonsignificant and its partial slope had the "wrong" sign.

The relationship between catch and effort and its effect on predicted yields of sardine fisheries in Lake Kariba

There is an unusual relationship between catch per unit effort and effort in the Lake Kariba sardine (Limnothrissa miodon) fishery. This is apparently a results of ecological changes in the lake following the decline of the Salvinia mats that existed there until 1973. Predictive models based on the entire data set (1974-89) are of limited value because they are influenced by the rapid decline in catch per unit effort that took place from 1974 to 1978. A model based on the 1980-89 data indicates that the current catch could be increased substantially. Some empirical models and features of the sardine's biology suggest that it is a realistic model.

Catch-effort relationship in Pacific bigeye tuna fishery

Some problems associated with fitting surplus production models to unsuitable data are discussed. This is illustrated by an application of the Schaefer, Fox and PRODFIT models to Pacific Ocean bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus ) catch and effort data for 1952-1987, which appear to be better described by purely empirical models.

Age validation, growth modeling, and mortality estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from southeastern Australia: making the most of patchy data

Age estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from Tasmanian waters were produced by counting annuli on the transverse section of sagittal otoliths and were validated by comparison of growth with known-age individuals and modal progression of a strong recruitment pulse. Estimated ages ranged from one to 43 years; fast growth rates were observed for the first five years. Minimal sexual dimorphism was shown to exist between length, weight, and growth characteristics of striped trumpeter. Seasonal growth variability was strong in individuals up to at least age four, and growth rates peaked approximately one month after the observed peak in sea surface temperature. A modified two-phase von Bertalanffy growth function was fitted to the length-at-age data, and the transition between growth phases was linked to apparent changes in physiological and life history traits, including offshore movement as fish approach maturity. The two-phase curve was found to represent the mean length at age in the data better than the standard von Bertalanffy growth function. Total mortality was estimated by using catch curve analysis based on the standard and two-phase von Bertalanffy growth functions, and estimates of natural mortality were calculated by using two empirical models, one based on longevity and the other based on the parameters L∞ and k from both growth functions. The interactions between an inshore gillnet fishery targeting predominately juveniles and an offshore hook fishery targeting predominately adults highlight the need to use a precautionary approach when developing harvest strategies.

Dimensionamento e análise numérica de pisos industriais de concreto.

Os pisos industriais devem atender aos critérios de segurança, funcionalidade e durabilidade das estruturas de concreto. A fim de analisar o desempenho de placas de concreto apoiadas sobre base elástica quando submetidas a ações diretas e indiretas, foram elaborados diversos modelos analíticos e empíricos. Com o avanço tecnológico e o advento de softwares desenvolvidos através de processos numéricos como o método dos elementos finitos (MEF), a aplicação desses modelos foi facilitada. Este trabalho aborda os métodos de cálculo existentes e utilizados na execução dos projetos estruturais de pisos industriais de concreto.

Nutrient dynamics and the eutrophication of shallow lakes Kasumigaura (Japan), Donghu (PR China), and Okeechobee (USA)

We compared the nutrient dynamics of three lakes that have been heavily influenced by point and non-point source pollution and other human activities. The lakes, located in Japan (Lake Kasumigaura), People's Republic of China (Lake Donghu), and the USA (Lake Okeechobee), all are relatively large(>30 km(2)), very shallow (<4 m mean depth), and eutrophic. In all three lakes we found strong interactions among the sediments, water column, and human activities. Important processes affecting nutrient dynamics included nitrogen fixation, light limitation due to resuspended sediments, and intense grazing on algae by cultured fish. As a result of these complex interactions, simple empirical models developed to predict in-lake responses of total phosphorus and algal biomass to external nutrient loads must be used with caution. While published models may provide 'good' results, in terms of model output matching actual data, this may not be due to accurate representation of lake processes in the models. The variable nutrient dynamics that we observed among the three study lakes appears to be typical for shallow lake systems. This indicates that a greater reliance on lake-specific research may be required for effective management, and a lesser role of inter-lake generalization than is possible for deeper, dimictic lake systems. Furthermore, accurate predictions of management impacts in shallow eutrophic lakes may require the use of relatively complex deterministic modeling tools. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

卫星高度计资料在海洋潮汐研究中的应用

本文依据收集到的392个地面验潮站8个主要分潮（M2、S2、K1、O1、N2、K2、P1及Q1）的调和常数，对现有7个全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验，结果显示各模式在深海区域均达到了比较高的准确度，相互之间差别也不大。经验模式GOT00和CSR4.0、同化模式NAO99、反演同化模式TPXO7.0、数值同化模式FES2002和FES2004的M2分潮均方根偏差在3 cm左右，其它分潮（S2、K1、O1、N2、K2、P1及Q1）大约在1～2 cm。本文还依据中国近海18个岛屿的调和常数对其中的5个大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验，结果表明，M2分潮均方根偏差在6～14 cm，明显高于大洋部分的偏差，其中日本国家天文台的潮汐模式NAO99在中国近海的结果相对较准确。 我们利用1992年8月至2008年8月的TOPEX/POSEIDON和JASON-1(T/P-J)卫星高度计资料，对沿卫星轨道的302816个站点进行了14个分潮的潮汐调和分析，得到了全球大洋潮汐的8个主要分潮以及2个气象分潮Sa、Ssa的经验同潮图。主要结果有：（1）各分潮在卫星上升轨道与下降轨道的交叉点(约7000个)相关性分析表明：M2分潮的振幅和迟角的相关系数很高（分别为0.9965和0.9961）；S2，K1，O1和Sa分潮也有较好的相关性（相关系数为0.94～0.99）；（2）该结果与392地面个验潮站吻合较好，其中M2分潮的振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差分别为：1.73 cm，2.340和2.93 cm；S2，K1和O1分潮的振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差为1 cm左右，5.250～7.270和1.5～2.1 cm，该精度与最近几年国际上的主要大洋潮汐模式的准确度相近；（3）首次通过卫星资料获得了Sa、Ssa分潮的同潮图。周期为1年的Sa分潮与大洋105个地面站相比，振幅、迟角和向量的均方根偏差分别为1.50 cm、18.360和2.16 cm。在此基础上，进一步分析了构成Sa、Ssa气象分潮的两个主要因素（海水密度以及海面气压）在全球的分布。 在T/P-J等卫星资料无法覆盖到南大洋和北冰洋，本文利用Princeton Ocean Model（POM）进行了数值模拟，模拟结果与162个地面实测站（其中南大洋30个，北冰洋132个）的观测比较一致。基于卫星资料分析的结果和数值模拟结果合并得到了全球大洋的8个主要分潮同潮图。在此基础上通过全球潮汐能量耗散的计算得到潮能通量的分布，并得到全球M2、S2、K1和O1分潮的潮汐能量耗散率为2.431TW、0.401TW、0.336TW和0.176TW。 本文还利用卫星资料对南海潮汐进行了研究，在中国南海，获得了主要的半日潮、全日潮、四分日分潮和长周期分潮（M2，S2，N2，K2，K1，O1，P1，Q1，M4, MS4，Sa, Ssa）的经验同潮图。与南海沿岸94个地面验潮站的数据符合得比较好，M2，S2，K1及O1等4个主要分潮的平均振幅差为2～4 cm，均方根偏差分别是9～11 cm.其它4个主要分潮N2，K2，P1，Q1的平均振幅差为1～2 cm，均方根偏差为2～4 cm。此外，本文还利用卫星高度计资料潮汐分析结果沿卫星轨道进行高通滤波，分离得出中国近海的M2，S2，K1及O1分潮的内潮信息。

太阳辐射对热层和电离层变化性的影响

Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation at wavelengths less than 400 nm is an important source of energy for aeronomic processes throughout the solar system. Solar UV photons are absorbed in planetary atmospheres, as well as throughout the heliosphere, via photodissociation of molecules, photoionization of molecules and atoms, and photoexcitation toexcitation including resonance scattering. In this paper, the solar irradiances data measured by TIMED SEE, as well as the solar proxies such as F10.7 and Mg II, thermosphere neutral density of CHAMP measurements and topside ionospheric plasmas densities from DMSP, are used to analyze solar irradiance effects on the variabilities of the thermosphere and the ionosphere. First, thermosphere densities near 410 km altitude are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2004. Correlations between the densities and the solar irradiances for different spectral lines and wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. The density correlates remarkably well with all the selected solar irradiances except the lower chromospheric O I (130.4 nm) emission. Among the chosen solar proxies, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio index, EUV (30-120 nm) and F10.7 show the highest correlations with the density for short-term (< ~27 days) variations. For both long- (> ~27 days) and short-term variations, linear correlation coefficients exhibit a decreasing trend from low latitudes towards high latitudes. The density variability can be effectively modeled (capturing 71% of the variance) using multiple solar irradiance indices, including F10.7, SEUV (the EUV 30-120 nm index), and SFUV (the FUV 120-193 nm index), in which a lag time of 1 day was used for both F10.7 and SEUV, and 5 days for SFUV. In our regression formulation SEUV has the largest contribution to the density variation (40%), with the F10.7 having the next largest contribution (32%) and SFUV accounting for the rest (28%). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27.2 days (mean period of the Sun's rotation) is present in both density and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) is also revealed in 2004. However, soft X-ray and FUV irradiances did not present a pronounced 54.4 day period in 2004, in spite of their high correlation with the densities. The Ap index also shows 54-day periodicities in 2004, and magnetic activity, together with solar irradiance, affects the 54-day variation in density significantly. In addition, NRLMSISE00, DTM-2000 and JB2006 model predictions are compared with density measurements from CHAMP to assess their accuracy, and the results show that these models underestimate the response of the thermosphere to variations induced by solar rotation. Next, the equatorial topside ionospheric plasmas densities Ni are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2005. Linear correlations between Ni and the solar irradiances for different wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (115-130 nm) show higher correlation with Ni for the long-term variations, whereas EUV (35-115 nm) show higher correlation for the short-term variations. Moreover, partial correlation analysis shows that the long-term variations of Ni are affected by both XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (35-115 nm), whereas XUV (0-35 nm) play a more important role; the short-term variations of Ni are mostly affected by EUV (35-115 nm). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27 days is present in both Ni and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54 days is also revealed in 2004. Finally, prompted by previous studies that have suggested solar EUV radiation as a means of driving the semiannual variation, we investigate the intra-annual variation in thermosphere neutral density near 400 km during 2002-2005. The intra-annual variation, commonly referred to as the ‘semiannual variation’, is characterized by significant latitude structure, hemispheric asymmetries, and inter-annual variability. The magnitude of the maximum yearly difference, from the yearly minimum to the yearly maximum, varies by as much as 60% from year to year, and the phases of the minima and maxima also change by 20-40 days from year to year. Each annual harmonic of the intra-annual variation, namely, annual, semiannual, ter-annual and quatra-annual, exhibits a decreasing trend from 2002 through 2005 that is correlated with the decline in solar activity. In addition, some variations in these harmonics are correlated with geomagnetic activity, as represented by the daily mean value of Kp. Recent empirical models of the thermosphere are found to be deficient in capturing most of the latitude dependencies discovered in our data. In addition, the solar flux and geomagnetic activity proxies that we have employed do not capture some latitude and inter-annual variations detected in our data. It is possible that these variations are partly due to other effects, such as seasonal-latitudinal variations in turbopause altitude (and hence O/N2 composition) and ionosphere coupling processes that remain to be discovered in the context of influencing the intra-annual variations depicted here. Our results provide a new dataset to challenge and validate thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation models that seek to delineate the thermosphere intra-annual variation and to understand the various competing mechanisms that may contribute to its existence and variability. We furthermore suggest that the term “intra-annual” variation be adopted to describe the variability in thermosphere and ionosphere parameters that is well-captured through a superposition of annual, semiannual, ter-annual, and quatra-annual harmonic terms, and that “semiannual’ be used strictly in reference to a pure 6-monthly sinusoidal variation. Moreover, we propose the term “intra-seasonal” to refer to those shorter-term variations that arise as residuals from the above Fourier representation.

电离层参量M(3000)F2和hmF2的经验正交函数方法建模研究

The ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2 (the so-called transmission factor or the propagation factor) is important not only in practical applications such as frequency planning for radio-communication but also in ionospheric modeling. This parameter is strongly anti-correlated with the ionospheric F2-layer peak height hmF2，a parameter often used as a key anchor point in some widely used empirical models of the ionospheric electron density profile (e.g., in IRI and NeQuick models). Since hmF2 is not easy to obtain from measurements and M(3000)F2 can be routinely scaled from ionograms recorded by ionosonde/digisonde stations distributed globally and its data has been accumulated for a long history, usually the value of hmF2 is calculated from M(3000)F2 using the empirical formula connecting them. In practice, CCIR M(3000)F2 model is widely used to obtain M(3000)F2 value. However, recently some authors found that the CCIR M(3000)F2 model has remarkable discrepancies with the measured M(3000)F2, especially in low-latitude and equatorial regions. For this reason, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) research community proposes to improve or update the currently used CCIR M(3000)F2 model. Any efforts toward the improvement and updating of the current M(3000)F2 model or newly development of a global hmF2 model are encouraged. In this dissertation, an effort is made to construct the empirical models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2 based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis combined with regression analysis method. The main results are as follows: 1. A single station model is constructed using monthly median hourly values of M(3000)F2 data observed at Wuhan Ionospheric Observatory during the years of 1957–1991 and compared with the IRI model. The result shows that EOF method is possible to use only a few orders of EOF components to represent most of the variance of the original data set. It is a powerful method for ionospheric modeling. 2. Using the values of M(3000)F2 observed by ionosondes distributed globally, data at grids uniformly distributed globally were obtained by using the Kriging interpolation method. Then the gridded data were decomposed into EOF components using two different coordinates: (1) geographical longitude and latitude; (2) modified dip (Modip) and local time. Based on the EOF decompositions of the gridded data under these two coordinates systems, two types of the global M(3000)F2 model are constructed. Statistical analysis showed that the two types of the constructed M(3000)F2 model have better agreement with the observational M(3000)F2 than the M(3000)F2 model currently used by IRI. The constructed models can represent the global variations of M(3000)F2 better. 3. The hmF2 data used to construct the hmF2 model were converted from the observed M(3000)F2 based on the empirical formula connecting them. We also constructed two types of the global hmF2 model using the similar method of modeling M(3000)F2. Statistical analysis showed that the prediction of our models is more accurate than the model of IRI. This demonstrated that using EOF analysis method to construct global model of hmF2 directly is feasible. The results in this thesis indicate that the modeling technique based on EOF expansion combined with regression analysis is very promising when used to construct the global models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2. It is worthwhile to investigate further and has the potential to be used to the global modeling of other ionospheric parameters.

Probabilistic modeling of structural deterioration of reinforced concrete beams under saline environment corrosion

For existing reinforced concrete structures exposed to saline or marine conditions, there is an increasing engineering interest in their remaining safety and serviceability. A significant factor is the corrosion of steel reinforcement. At present there is little field experience and other data available. This limits the possibility for developing purely empirical models for strength and performance deterioration for use in structural safety and serviceability assessment. An alternative approach using theoretical concepts and probabilistic modeling is proposed herein. It is based on the evidence that the rate of diffusion of chlorides is influenced by internal damage to the concrete surrounding the reinforcement. This may be due to localized stresses resulting from external loading or through concrete shrinkage. Usually, the net effect is that the time to initiation of active corrosion is shortened, leading to greater localized corrosion and earlier reduction of ultimate capacity and structural stiffness. The proposed procedure is applied to an example beam and compared to experimental observations,including estimates of uncertainty in the remaining ultimate moment capacity and beam stiffness. Reasonably good agreement between the results of the proposed procedure and the experiment was found