The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

A depth-integrated 2D coastal and estuarine model with conformal boundary-fitted mesh generation

Details are given of the development and application of a 2D depth-integrated, conformal boundary-fitted, curvilinear model for predicting the depth-mean velocity field and the spatial concentration distribution in estuarine and coastal waters. A numerical method for conformal mesh generation, based on a boundary integral equation formulation, has been developed. By this method a general polygonal region with curved edges can be mapped onto a regular polygonal region with the same number of horizontal and vertical straight edges and a multiply connected region can be mapped onto a regular region with the same connectivity. A stretching transformation on the conformally generated mesh has also been used to provide greater detail where it is needed close to the coast, with larger mesh sizes further offshore, thereby minimizing the computing effort whilst maximizing accuracy. The curvilinear hydrodynamic and solute model has been developed based on a robust rectilinear model. The hydrodynamic equations are approximated using the ADI finite difference scheme with a staggered grid and the solute transport equation is approximated using a modified QUICK scheme. Three numerical examples have been chosen to test the curvilinear model, with an emphasis placed on complex practical applications

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Mastication effort study using photorefractive holographic interferometry technique

The purpose of this work was the force-displacement response analysis of the masticatory process in a dried human skull by Double-Exposure Photorefractive Holographic Interferometry Technique (2E-PRHI). The load concentration and dissipation of the forces from dried human skull were analysed at applied loading stands as a Simulation of Isolated Contraction (SIC) of some mastication muscles. The 2EHI and Fringe Analysis Method were used to obtain the quantitative results of this force-displacement response. These results document quantitatively the real biomechanical response from dried human skull under applied loading and it can be used for complementary study by finite element model and others analysis type. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A proposed Model for Country Branding : an experimental Application on Nigeria

In the era of globalization, countries compete with each other for attention, respect and trust of potential consumers, investors, tourists, media and governments of other nations. Branding is the most powerful tool that a nation can utilize for effective differentiation strategies and for creating competitive advantage over other nations. Unfortunately, not every nations or destination marketers have a broad understanding of the concept of branding and how a country can be successfully branded. Hence, this study has proposed a model that could be used as a valuable guide for country branding. Also the model is recommended for countries struggling with image crisis; on the mission to improve the image internationally. Nigeria is a good example of countries with image crisis; it is one of the most populated countries in the world with a population of about 160 million inhabitants and growth rate of 2.553percent annually. Despite the abundant resources (e.g. coal, petroleum, natural gas etc.) that the nation is endowed with, it is quite disappointing that the population below poverty line is still at the alarming rate of 70percent of the total population. The mismanagement and poor leadership of the nation characterised by corruption, fraud, embezzlement of public fund etc. has culminated into serious image crisis that is slowing down the potential for investment and economic growth. However, there has been series of image rebranding campaigns but no tangible achievement has been recorded. It is quite questionable though, if image rebranding will provide the kind of future that Nigeria envisaged, considering the socio-political situation and the economic imbalance; compounded by the obvious fact that the nation has no known brand. Therefore, this paper argues that there is need to redirect the effort invested on image rebranding to the creation of a unique and competitive brand for the country. It was established from the study that a nation’s brand is capable of improving the reputation of the nation as well as stimulate the expectation of the target audience. However, it was also established from the study that a wrong approach to branding could mislead the target audience and attract negative publicity. Hence, as a contribution of the study to the field of branding, a model was proposed as a functional guide for country branding. Also, considering the abysmal performance of Nigeria’s image in the international community and to strengthen the argument that brand creation is required for the country; an experimental application of the proposed model was conducted using Nigeria as the case country. The first phase of the model suggested a major improvement in the society; this is required to further enhance the strengths of the country and to motivate the much needed community participation and confidence in the brand creation. It is the conclusion of the study that a strong nation brand can offset the image problem if it is built on something concrete, genuine, and uniquely identifiable with the country, capable of connecting to the cognitive psychology of the target audience.

The Open Provenance Model Core Specification (v1.1)

The Open Provenance Model is a model of provenance that is designed to meet the following requirements: (1) To allow provenance information to be exchanged between systems, by means of a compatibility layer based on a shared provenance model. (2) To allow developers to build and share tools that operate on such a provenance model. (3) To define provenance in a precise, technology-agnostic manner. (4) To support a digital representation of provenance for any 'thing', whether produced by computer systems or not. (5) To allow multiple levels of description to coexist. (6) To define a core set of rules that identify the valid inferences that can be made on provenance representation. This document contains the specification of the Open Provenance Model (v1.1) resulting from a community-effort to achieve inter-operability in the Provenance Challenge series.

Comparison between univariate and bivariate geostatistical models for estimating catch per unit of effort (cpue): A simulation study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparing three indices of catch per unit effort using Bayesian geostatistics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bayesian approximations in randomized response model

Practical Bayesian inference depends upon detailed examination of posterior distribution. When the prior and likelihood are conjugate, this is easily carried out; however, in general, one must resort to numerical approximation. In this paper, our aim is to solve, using MAPLE, the Bayesian paradigm, for a very special data collecting procedure, known as the randomized-response technique. This allows researchers to obtain sensitive information while guaranteeing privacy to respondents. This approach intends to reduce false responses on sensitive questions. Exact methods and approximations will be compared from the accuracy point of view as well as for the computational effort.

The psychobiological model: a new explanation to intensity regulation and (in)tolerance in endurance exercise

The mechanisms underpinning fatigue and exhaustion, and the specific sources of exercise-endurance intensity regulation and (in)tolerance have been investigated for over a century. Although several scientific theories are currently available, over the past five years a new framework called Psychobiological model has been proposed. This model gives greater attention to perceptual and motivational factors than its antecedents, and their respective influence on the conscious process of decision-making and behavioral regulation. In this review we present experimental evidences and summarize the key points of the Psychobiological model to explain intensity regulation and (in)tolerance in endurance exercise. Still, we discuss how the Psychobiological model explains training-induced adaptations related to improvements in performance, experimental manipulations, its predictions, and propose future directions for this investigative area. The Psychobiological model may give a new perspective to the results already published in the literature, helping scientists to better guide their research problems, as well as to analyze and interpret new findings more accurately.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Relationship between aerobic and anaerobic parameters from 3-minute all-out tethered swimming and 400-m maximal front crawl effort

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Irreversibility by competition on a Glauber-Ising model by means of the entropy production.

An out of equilibrium Ising model subjected to an irreversible dynamics is analyzed by means of a stochastic dynamics, on a effort that aims to understand the observed critical behavior as consequence of the intrinsic microscopic characteristics. The study focus on the kinetic phase transitions that take place by assuming a lattice model with inversion symmetry and under the influence of two competing Glauber dynamics, intended to describe the stationary states using the entropy production, which characterize the system behavior and clarifies its reversibility conditions. Thus, it is considered a square lattice formed by two sublattices interconnected, each one of which is in contact with a heat bath at different temperature from the other. Analytical and numerical treatments are faced, using mean-field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations. For the one dimensional model exact results for the entropy production were obtained, though in this case the phase transition that takes place in the two dimensional counterpart is not observed, fact which is in accordance with the behavior shared by lattice models presenting inversion symmetry. Results found for the stationary state show a critical behavior of the same class as the equilibrium Ising model with a phase transition of the second order, which is evidenced by a divergence with an exponent µ ¼ 0:003 of the entropy production derivative.