Comparing Australias genuine progress to its economic growth performance

Australia has recorded consistently strong levels of economic growth in recent times. Under conventional considerations, the well-being experienced by Australians would also be considered to have increased in equal terms over this period. This is because aggregate standard national accounts have from their inception been assigned as proxy measures of well-being both within the economic literature and public debate. However, this approach fails to consider a number of important economic costs and non-welfaristic impacts on well-being associated with a growing economy. As a result, figures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita over-estimate well-being. It is possible to adjust these estimates to overcome these limitations. Within this paper, the sustainable well-being of Australia will be reviewed by estimating a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) for the period 1986–2003. Policy implications following from this new analysis will also be discussed.

Mental health promotion and socio-economic disadvantage: lessons from substance abuse, violence and crime prevention and child health

Issue addressed: Mental health promotion aimed at populations with low socio-economic status (SES) may benefit by investigating prevention strategies that effectively address related child and adolescent problems.
Methods: Evidence from a number of literature reviews and program evaluations was synthesised. First, the impact of SES on development from childhood to adulthood is considered in light of research on substance
abuse, violence, crime, and child development problems. Second, evaluations of interventions are reviewed to identify those that have shown outcomes in research studies (efficacy) or in real-world settings (effectiveness) in reducing developmental problems associated with low SES. Low SES is measured in different ways including low levels of education and/or income or definitions that combine several variables into a new indicator of low SES.
Results: Factors associated with low SES are also associated to varying extent with the development of violence and crime, substance abuse and child health problems. Interventions that address underlying determinants of low SES show strong efficacy in decreasing adolescent crime and violence and effectiveness in improving child health outcomes. Although there is limited efficacy evidence that substance abuse prevention can be effectively addressed by targeting low SES, programs designed to improve educational pathways show some efficacy in reducing aspects of adolescent substance use.
Conclusion: Mental health promotion strategies can draw on the approaches outlined here that are associated with the prevention of child and adolescent problems within low SES communities. Alternatively, such interventions could be supported in mental health promotion policy as they may assist in preventing related problems that undermine mental health.

The relationship between economic development and social welfare: A new adjusted GDP measure of welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue of preparation of social welfare measurements on the basis of an unadjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper extends this method to incorporate cost-benefit analysis of economic growth in a growing economy in calculating the adjusted GDP, termed as the cost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approach is empirically applied to Thailand. There are stark differences between GDP per capita and CB adjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as an indicator of social welfare if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework.

Can social cognitive theory constructs explain socio-economic variations in adolescent eating behaviours? A mediation analysis

Adolescents of low socio-economic position (SEP) are less likely than those of higher SEP to consume diets in line with current dietary recommendations. The reasons for these SEP variations remain poorly understood. We investigated the mechanisms underlying socio-economic variations in adolescents’ eating behaviours using a theoretically derived explanatory model. Data were obtained from a community-based sample of 2529 adolescents aged 12–15 years, from 37 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. Adolescents completed a web-based survey assessing their eating behaviours, self-efficacy for healthy eating, perceived importance of nutrition and health, social modelling and support and the availability of foods in the home. Parents provided details of maternal education level, which was used as an indicator of SEP. All social cognitive constructs assessed mediated socio-economic variations in at least one indicator of adolescents’ diet. Cognitive factors were the strongest mediator of socio-economic variations in fruit intakes, while for energy-dense snack foods and fast foods, availability of energy-dense snacks at home tended to be strong mediators. Social cognitive theory provides a useful framework for understanding socio-economic variations in adolescent's diet and might guide public health programmes and policies focusing on improving adolescent nutrition among those experiencing socio-economic disadvantage.

The end of economic growth? A contracting threshold hypothesis

This paper argues that GDP growth in both developed and developing countries has associated costs that can outweigh the benefits and thus reduce sustainable well-being. This conclusion is based upon the findings of empirical applications of the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) to a range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The studies conducted on seven Asia-Pacific countries indicate that, in the case of five of the seven nations, more recent GDP growth has reduced the sustainable well-being experienced by the average citizen residing within them. Moreover, the threshold point at which the costs of GDP growth outweigh the benefits appears to be contracting (i.e., occurring at a much lower per capita level of GDP). This paper therefore introduces a new contracting threshold hypothesis: as the economies of the Asia-Pacific region and the world collectively expand in a globalised economic environment, there is a contraction over time in the threshold level of per capita GDP. As a consequence, the threshold point confronting growth late-comers (i.e., developing countries) occurs at a much lower level of sustainable welfare than what wealthy nations currently enjoy. The consequences of this for developing countries are clearly significant and require a new approach to economic development.

The determinants of economic growth versus genuine progress in South Korea

This paper examines whether the drivers of economic growth are the same as those for genuine progress in the case of South Korea. Using data covering the period 1970–2005, the paper first constructs a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). An empirical model is then specified and estimated using growth in GDP per capita and growth in the GPI per capita as dependent variables. Results indicate that while physical capital, research and development, exports, and inflation are all important in determining growth in GDP per capita, only physical capital is a driver of genuine progress. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to identify and target other determinants of genuine progress to improve the well-being of South Koreans, rather than focus attention on traditional sources of economic growth.

Intersections between disability, type of impairment, gender and socio-economic disadvantage in a nationally representative sample of 33,101 working aged Australians

Background:People with disabilities are socio-economically disadvantaged and have poorer health than people without disabilities; however, little is known about the way in which disadvantage is patterned by gender and type of impairment.Objectives:1. To describe whether socio-economic circumstances vary according to type of impairment (sensory and speech, intellectual, physical, psychological and acquired brain injury) 2. To compare levels of socio-economic disadvantage for women and men with the same impairment typeMethods:We used a large population-based disability-focused survey of Australians, analysing data from 33,101 participants aged 25 to 64. Indicators of socio-economic disadvantage included education, income, employment, housing vulnerability, and multiple disadvantage. Stratified by impairment type, we estimated: the population weighted prevalence of socio-economic disadvantage; the relative odds of disadvantage compared to people without disabilities; and the relative odds of disadvantage between women and men.Results:With few exceptions, people with disabilities fared worse for every indicator compared to people without disability; those with intellectual and psychological impairments and acquired brain injuries were most disadvantaged. While overall women with disabilities were more disadvantaged than men, the magnitude of the relative differences was lower than the same comparisons between women and men without disabilities, and there were few differences between women and men with the same impairment types.Conclusions:Crude comparisons between people with and without disabilities obscure how disadvantage is patterned according to impairment type and gender. The results emphasise the need to unpack how gender and disability intersect to shape socio-economic disadvantage.

The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption-economic growth: new evidence from China

Coal comprises 70% of primary energy sources and 80% of electricity generation in China. This paper investigates the coal consumption-economic growth nexus in an integrated demand-supply framework over the period from 1978 to 2010. We incorporate the role of coal technology to explain the growth process. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in the coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator, a proxy for coal technology, causing almost a 35% increase in real GDP in the long run. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth, feedback effects both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and coal demand and openness to coal consumption. For a robustness check, we forecast the validity of the causal relationships beyond the sample horizon using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method. Our analysis suggests that improving overall efficiency in coal sector will continue to play a significant role in maintaining sustainable growth in China in the long run.

Coal - the black gold of economic growth in China: empirical evidence and the role of cleaner coal technologies in recent time

Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast the validity of causal relationships beyond the sample horizon. The paper suggests the role of advanced coal technologies will play a significant role along with other environmental and energy policies in maintaining sustainable economic growth in China .

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Probiotic in feeding of juvenile matrinxã (Brycon amazonicus): economic viability

Objetivou-se analisar a viabilidade econômica do uso do probiótico Bacillus subtilis na alimentação de matrinxã Brycon amazonicus, em tanques-rede. O experimento foi conduzido no Polo Regional do Vale do Ribeira, no município de Pariquera-Açu, São Paulo, Brasil, entre fevereiro e julho de 2009. Foram avaliados 960 peixes juvenis, divididos em 12 tanques-rede de 2,7 m³ (1,5 x 1,5 x 1,2 m) em uma área total de 600 m², com profundidade média de 1,50 m. Os testes foram conduzidos com um tratamento testemunha (T1), duas doses de probiótico (T2 = 5 g e T3 = 10 g kg-1 de ração) e quatro repetições. Os resultados mostraram que o T2 proporcionou melhor desempenho zootécnico e econômico da matrinxã na fase de engorda no sistema intensivo de criação.

Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The use of key indicators to assess Latin America’s long-term economic performance

Through the astute analysis of official statistics, we can gather a more complete picture of the economic performance of a given country, and understand more fully what have been its drivers, leading to a more effective use of national resources and a more efficient design of policy options. However, the myriad of information and numerical data across the system of macroeconomic statistics can be challenging to interpret in a straightforward manner. In order to synthetically assess economic performance across countries in Latin America we propose the use of a composite indicator, which builds upon the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) and incorporates key indicators from each of the pillars of macroeconomic statistics: the System of National Accounts, the Balance of Payments Statistics, Monetary and Financial Statistics and Public Finance Statistics. Through a composite examination of key statistical indicators in each country across their long-term trends, we can more fully understand the underlying macroeconomic dynamics.

Economic growth and real volatility: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

Using a new database of quarterly data for 21 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1990-2012 period, this document shows that the duration of GDP contractions appears to be a rather robust indicator of real volatility, and is negatively correlated with long run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period. These results are consistent with different theoretical hypotheses in the literature that relate the duration of GDP contractions with economic growth. They also show that the relationship between real volatility and economic growth in the region is robust to the inclusion of external variables that control for external uncertainty and volatility.

Alteração da fertilidade do solo como indicador do processo de antropização e presença de atividades não agrícolas no assentamento rural Horto Aimorés, municípios de Bauru e Pederneiras/SP =: Change of soil fertility as an indicator of the anthropization process and presence of non agricultural activities at the rural settlement Horto Aimorés, cities of Bauru and Pederneiras/ SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT