934 resultados para early IODM system


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Suicide has drawn much attention from both the scientific community and the public. Examining the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide is essential in developing suicide prevention strategies and interventions, because it will provide health authorities with important information for their decision-making. However, previous studies did not examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide using a spatial analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to identify the patterns of suicide and to examine how socio-environmental factors impact on suicide over time and space at the Local Governmental Area (LGA) level in Queensland. The suicide data between 1999 and 2003 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Socio-environmental variables at the LGA level included climate (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature), Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and demographic variables (proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate, proportion of population with low income and low education level). Climate data were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. SEIFA and demographic variables were acquired from ABS. A series of statistical and geographical information system (GIS) approaches were applied in the analysis. This study included two stages. The first stage used average annual data to view the spatial pattern of suicide and to examine the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide over space. The second stage examined the spatiotemporal pattern of suicide and assessed the socio-environmental determinants of suicide, using more detailed seasonal data. In this research, 2,445 suicide cases were included, with 1,957 males (80.0%) and 488 females (20.0%). In the first stage, we examined the spatial pattern and the determinants of suicide using 5-year aggregated data. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between variables. Then a Poisson regression model was applied in the multivariable analysis, as the occurrence of suicide is a small probability event and this model fitted the data quite well. Suicide mortality varied across LGAs and was associated with a range of socio-environmental factors. The multivariable analysis showed that maximum temperature was significantly and positively associated with male suicide (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.07). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide in male population (male: RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03). There was a positive association between unemployment rate and suicide in both genders (male: RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06; female: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.16). No significant association was observed for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low individual income and low educational attainment. In the second stage of this study, we undertook a preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of suicide using seasonal data. Firstly, we assessed the interrelations between variables. Secondly, a generalised estimating equations (GEE) model was used to examine the socio-environmental impact on suicide over time and space, as this model is well suited to analyze repeated longitudinal data (e.g., seasonal suicide mortality in a certain LGA) and it fitted the data better than other models (e.g., Poisson model). The suicide pattern varied with season and LGA. The north of Queensland had the highest suicide mortality rate in all the seasons, while there was no suicide case occurred in the southwest. Northwest had consistently higher suicide mortality in spring, autumn and winter. In other areas, suicide mortality varied between seasons. This analysis showed that maximum temperature was positively associated with suicide among male population (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.47) and total population (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.32). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide among total population (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.19) and by gender (male: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.13; female: RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.48). Unemployment rate was positively associated with total (RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.59) and female (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.18) suicide. There was also a positive association between proportion of population with low individual income and suicide in total (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.48) and male (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.72) population. Rainfall was only positively associated with suicide in total population (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.19). There was no significant association for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low educational attainment. The second stage is the extension of the first stage. Different spatial scales of dataset were used between the two stages (i.e., mean yearly data in the first stage, and seasonal data in the second stage), but the results are generally consistent with each other. Compared with other studies, this research explored the variety of the impact of a wide range of socio-environmental factors on suicide in different geographical units. Maximum temperature, proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and proportion of population with low individual income were among the major determinants of suicide in Queensland. However, the influence from other factors (e.g. socio-culture background, alcohol and drug use) influencing suicide cannot be ignored. An in-depth understanding of these factors is vital in planning and implementing suicide prevention strategies. Five recommendations for future research are derived from this study: (1) It is vital to acquire detailed personal information on each suicide case and relevant information among the population in assessing the key socio-environmental determinants of suicide; (2) Bayesian model could be applied to compare mortality rates and their socio-environmental determinants across LGAs in future research; (3) In the LGAs with warm weather, high proportion of Indigenous population and/or unemployment rate, concerted efforts need to be made to control and prevent suicide and other mental health problems; (4) The current surveillance, forecasting and early warning system needs to be strengthened, to trace the climate and socioeconomic change over time and space and its impact on population health; (5) It is necessary to evaluate and improve the facilities of mental health care, psychological consultation, suicide prevention and control programs; especially in the areas with low socio-economic status, high unemployment rate, extreme weather events and natural disasters.

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The low stream salinity naturally in the Nebine-Mungallala Catchment, extent of vegetation retention, relatively low rainfall and high evaporation indicates that there is a relatively low risk of rising shallow groundwater tables in the catchment. Scalding caused by wind and water erosion exposing highly saline sub-soils is a more important regional issue, such as in the Homeboin area. Local salinisation associated with evaporation of bore water from free flowing bore drains and bores is also an important land degradation issue particularly in the lower Nebine, Wallam and Mungallala Creeks. The replacement of free flowing artesian bores and bore drains with capped bores and piped water systems under the Great Artesian Basin bore rehabilitation program is addressing local salinisation and scalding in the vicinity of bore drains and preventing the discharge of saline bore water to streams. Three principles for the prevention and control of salinity in the Nebine Mungallala catchment have been identified in this review: • Avoid salinity through avoiding scalds – i.e. not exposing the near-surface salt in landscape through land degradation; • Riparian zone management: Scalding often occurs within 200m or so of watering lines. Natural drainage lines are most likely to be overstocked, and thus have potential for scalding. Scalding begins when vegetation is removed, and without that binding cover, wind and water erosion exposes the subsoil; and • Monitoring of exposed or grazed soil areas. Based on the findings of the study, we make the following recommendations: 1. Undertake a geotechnical study of existing maps and other data to help identify and target areas most at risk of rising water tables causing salinity. Selected monitoring should then be established using piezometers as an early warning system. 2. SW NRM should financially support scald reclamation activity through its various funding programs. However, for this to have any validity in the overall management of salinity risk, it is critical that such funding require the landholder to undertake a salinity hazard/risk assessment of his/her holding. 3. A staged approach to funding may be appropriate. In the first instance, it would be reasonable to commence funding some pilot scald reclamation work with a view to further developing and piloting the farm hazard/risk assessment tools, and exploring how subsequent grazing management strategies could be incorporated within other extension and management activities. Once the details of the necessary farm level activities have been more clearly defined, and following the outcomes of the geotechnical review recommended above, a more comprehensive funding package could be rolled out to priority areas. 4. We recommend that best-practice grazing management training currently on offer should be enhanced with information about salinity risk in scald-prone areas, and ways of minimising the likelihood of scald formation. 5. We recommend that course material be developed for local students in Years 6 and 7, and that arrangements be made with local schools to present this information. Given the constraints of existing syllabi, we envisage that negotiations may have to be undertaken with the Department of Education in order for this material to be permitted to be used. We have contact with key people who could help in this if required. 6. We recommend that SW NRM continue to support existing extension activities such as Grazing Land Management and the Monitoring Made Easy tools. These aids should be able to be easily expanding to incorporate techniques for monitoring, addressing and preventing salinity and scalding. At the time of writing staff of SW NRM were actively involved in this process. It is important that these activities are adequately resourced to facilitate the uptake by landholders of the perception that salinity is an issue that needs to be addressed as part of everyday management. 7. We recommend that SW NRM consider investing in the development and deployment of a scenario-modelling learning support tool as part of the awareness raising and education activities. Secondary salinity is a dynamic process that results from ongoing human activity which mobilises and/or exposes salt occurring naturally in the landscape. Time scales can be short to very long, and the benefits of management actions can similarly have immediate or very long time frames. One way to help explain the dynamics of these processes is through scenario modelling.

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Interstellar gas abundances (Clayton et al., 1986) suggest that titanium may be bound up in dust and indeed, excess titanium in carbonaceous chondrites is attributed to mixing of interstellar and Solar System materials (Morton, 1974). Fine-grained chondritic interplanetary dust particles (lOPs) of cometary origin are relatively pristine early Solar System materials (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987; Rietmeijer, 1987) and show chemical and mineralogical signatures related to a pre-solar or nebular origin. For example, large OtH ratios suggest a presolar or interstellar dust component in some chondritic lOPs(Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). Ti/Si ratios (normalized to bulk CI) in lOPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrices exceed solar abundances but are similar to dust from comet Halley (Jessberger et al., 1987). The Ti-distribution in chondritic lOPs shows major, small-scale « 0.1 urn) variations (Flynn et al., 1978) consistent with heterogeneously distributed Ti-bearingphases. Analytical electron microscope (AEM) studies, in fact, have identified platey grains of Ti-metal, Ti407 and Ti s09 in two different lOPs (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). The occurrence of Ti407 was related in situ low-temperature aqueous alteration and therefore implied the presence of BaTi03 (Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984). Yet, the presence ofTis09 in an lOp which shows no evidence of aqueous alteration (Rietmeijer.and McKay, 1986) requires a different interpretation. The distribution of Ti-oxides in chondritic lOPs were investigated with ultra-microtomed thin sections of fluffy chondri tic lOP U2011*B (lSC allocation U2011C2) using a lEOL 2000FX AEM operating at an accelerating voltage of 200kV and with an attached Tracor Northern TN5500 energy dispersive spectrometer.

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A mineralogical survey of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs)showed that these micrometeorites differ significantly in form and texture from components of carbonaceous chondrites and contain some mineral assemblages which do not occur in any meteorite class1. Models of chondritic IDP mineral evolution generally ignore the typical (ultra-) fine grain size of consituent minerals which range between 0.002-0.1µm in size2. The chondritic porous (CP) subset of chondritic IDPs is probably debris from short period comets although evidence for a cometary origin is still circumstantial3. If CP IDPs represent dust from regions of the Solar System in which comet accretion occurred, it can be argued that pervasive mineralogical evolution of IDP dust has been arrested due to cryogenic storage in comet nuclei. Thus, preservation in CP IDPs of "unusual meteorite minerals", such as oxides of tin, bismuth and titanium4, should not be dismissed casually. These minerals may contain specific information about processes that occurred in regions of the solar nebula, and early Solar System, which spawned the IDP parent bodies such as comets and C, P and D asteroids6. It is not fully appreciated that the apparent disparity between the mineralogy of CP IDPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrix may also be caused by the choice of electron-beam techniques with different analytical resolution. For example, Mg-Si-Fe distributions of Cl matrix obtained by "defocussed beam" microprobe analyses are displaced towards lower Fe-values when using analytical electron microscope (AEM)data which resolve individual mineral grains of various layer silicates and magnetite in the same matrix6,7. In general, "unusual meteorite minerals" in chondritic IDPs, such as metallic titanium, Tin01-n(Magneli phases) and anatase8 add to the mineral data base of fine-grained Solar System materials and provide constraints on processes that occurred in the early Solar System.

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Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation. The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1B climate change assumptions for the area. The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the horizontal spatial resolution of 30 m is rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting DEM was used for flood modelling. The above mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps. According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously available flood maps. The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore these maps can serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.

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CARBONACEOUS chondrites provide valuable information as they are the least altered examples of early Solar System material1. The matrix constitutes a major proportion of carbonaceous chondrites. Despite many past attempts, unambiguous identification of the minerals in the matrix has not been totally successful2. This is mainly due to the extremely fine-grained nature of the matrix phases. Recently, progress in the characterisation of these phases has been made by electron diffraction studies3,4. We present here the direct observation, by high resolution imaging, of phases in carbonaceous chondrite matrices. We used ion-thinned sections from the Murchison C2(M) meteorite for transmission electron microscopy. The Murchison matrix contains both ordered and disordered inter-growths of serpentine-like and brucite-like layers. Such mixed-layer structures are new types of layer silicates. © 1979 Nature Publishing Group.

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Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

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The Lake Wivenhoe Integrated Wireless Sensor Network is conceptually similar to traditional SCADA monitoring and control approaches. However, it is applied in an open system using wireless devices to monitor processes that affect water quality at both a high spatial and temporal frequency. This monitoring assists scientists to better understand drivers of key processes that influence water quality and provide the operators with an early warning system if below standard water enters the reservoir. Both of these aspects improve the safety and efficient delivery of drinking water to the end users.

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Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

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OBJECTIVES To identify the meteorological drivers of dengue vector density and determine high- and low-risk transmission zones for dengue prevention and control in Cairns, Australia. METHODS Weekly adult female Ae. aegypti data were obtained from 79 double sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in Cairns for the period September 2007-May 2012. Maximum temperature, total rainfall and average relative humidity data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the study period. Time series-distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the relationship between meteorological variables and vector density. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed via semivariography, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to predict vector density in Cairns. RESULTS Ae. aegypti density was associated with temperature and rainfall. However, these relationships differed between short (0-6 weeks) and long (0-30 weeks) lag periods. Semivariograms showed that vector distributions were spatially autocorrelated in September 2007-May 2008 and January 2009-May 2009, and vector density maps identified high transmission zones in the most populated parts of Cairns city, as well as Machans Beach. CONCLUSION Spatiotemporal patterns of Ae. aegypti in Cairns are complex, showing spatial autocorrelation and associations with temperature and rainfall. Sticky ovitraps should be placed no more than 1.2 km apart to ensure entomological coverage and efficient use of resources. Vector density maps provide evidence for the targeting of prevention and control activities. Further research is needed to explore the possibility of developing an early warning system of dengue based on meteorological and environmental factors.

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A comprehensive literature review has been undertaken exploring the stressors placed on the personal relationships of Australian Army personnel, through service life and also overseas deployments. This work is the first step in a program of research aimed at developing a screening tool, aimed at acting as an early warning system to enable the right assistance to be given to affected personnel at the earliest possible time. It is envisioned that this tool will be utilised by the day-to-day managers of Australian Army personnel, of whom the vast majority are not health practitioners. This review has identified the commonalities of relationships that last through service life and/or deployments, and those that fail. These factors are those which will aid the development of the screening tool, and enable the early identification of Australian Army personnel who are at risk of having their personal relationship break down. Several of the known relationship stressors are relevant to other ‘high intensity’ professions, such as paramedics. Personal experience as an Army Officer has helped to highlight the importance of this research, and the benefits of developing a tool tailored to the unique social microclimate that is the Australian Army are clear. This research is, to the author’s knowledge, unique in the Australian context.

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An outbreak detection and response system, using time series moving percentile method based on historical data, in China has been used for identifying dengue fever outbreaks since 2008. For dengue fever outbreaks reported from 2009 to 2012, this system achieved a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 99.8% and a median time to detection of 3 days, which indicated that the system was a useful decision tool for dengue fever control and risk-management programs in China.

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Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

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The possibility of establishing an accurate relative chronology of the early solar system events based on the decay of short-lived Al-26 to Mg-26 (half-life of 0.72 Myr) depends on the level of homogeneity (or heterogeneity) of Al-26 and Mg isotopes. However, this level is difficult. to constrain precisely because of the very high precision needed for the determination of isotopic ratios, typically of +/- 5 ppm. In this study, we report for the first time a detailed analytical protocol developed for high precision in situ Mg isotopic measurements ((25)mg/(24)mg and (26)mg/Mg-24 ratios, as well as Mg-26 excess) by MC-SIMS. As the data reduction process is critical for both accuracy and precision of the final isotopic results, factors such as the Faraday cup (FC) background drift and matrix effects on instrumental fractionation have been investigated. Indeed these instrumental effects impacting the measured Mg-isotope ratios can be as large or larger than the variations we are looking for to constrain the initial distribution of Al-26 and Mg isotopes in the early solar system. Our results show that they definitely are limiting factors regarding the precision of Mg isotopic compositions, and that an under- or over-correction of both FC background instabilities and instrumental isotopic fractionation leads to important bias on delta Mg-25, delta(26)mg and Delta Mg-26 values (for example, olivines not corrected for FC background drifts display Delta Mg-26 values that can differ by as much as 10 ppm from the truly corrected value). The new data reduction process described here can then be applied to meteoritic samples (components of chondritic meteorites for instance) to accurately establish their relative chronology of formation.

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Silicon is the second most abundant element on the Earth and one of the more abundant elements in our Solar System. Variations in the relative abundance of the stable isotopes of Si (Si isotope fractionation) in different natural reservoirs, both terrestrial (surface and deep Earth) as well as extra-terrestrial (e.g. meteorites, lunar samples), are a powerful tracer of present and past processes involving abiotic as well as biotic systems. The versatility of the Si isotope tracer is reflected in its wide-ranging applications from understanding the origin of early Solar System objects, planetary differentiation, Moon formation, mantle melting and magma differentiation on the Earth, ancient sea-water composition, to modern-day weathering, clay formation and biological fractionation on land as well as in the oceans. The application of Si isotopes as tracers of natural processes started over six decades ago and its usage has seen a sudden increase over the last decade due to improvements in mass spectrometry, particularly the advent of multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers, which has made Si isotope measurements safe and relatively easy while simultaneously improving the accuracy and precision of measurements.