Fast Learning by Bounding Likelihoods in Sigmoid Type Belief Networks

Sigmoid type belief networks, a class of probabilistic neural networks, provide a natural framework for compactly representing probabilistic information in a variety of unsupervised and supervised learning problems. Often the parameters used in these networks need to be learned from examples. Unfortunately, estimating the parameters via exact probabilistic calculations (i.e, the EM-algorithm) is intractable even for networks with fairly small numbers of hidden units. We propose to avoid the infeasibility of the E step by bounding likelihoods instead of computing them exactly. We introduce extended and complementary representations for these networks and show that the estimation of the network parameters can be made fast (reduced to quadratic optimization) by performing the estimation in either of the alternative domains. The complementary networks can be used for continuous density estimation as well.

Predictive control using feedback linearization based on dynamic neural models

This paper presents a hybrid control strategy integrating dynamic neural networks and feedback linearization into a predictive control scheme. Feedback linearization is an important nonlinear control technique which transforms a nonlinear system into a linear system using nonlinear transformations and a model of the plant. In this work, empirical models based on dynamic neural networks have been employed. Dynamic neural networks are mathematical structures described by differential equations, which can be trained to approximate general nonlinear systems. A case study based on a mixing process is presented.

Tracking and surveillance in wide-area spatial environments using the abstract hidden markov model.

In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking an object and predicting the object's future trajectory in a wide-area environment, with complex spatial layout and the use of multiple sensors/cameras. To solve this problem, there is a need for representing the dynamic and noisy data in the tracking tasks, and dealing with them at different levels of detail. We employ the Abstract Hidden Markov Models (AHMM), an extension of the well-known Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN), as our underlying representation framework. The AHMM allows us to explicitly encode the hierarchy of connected spatial locations, making it scalable to the size of the environment being modeled. We describe an application for tracking human movement in an office-like spatial layout where the AHMM is used to track and predict the evolution of object trajectories at different levels of detail.

A probabilistic framework for tracking in wide-area environments

Surveillance in wide-area spatial environments is characterised by complex spatial layouts, large state space, and the use of multiple cameras/sensors. To solve this problem, there is a need for representing the dynamic and noisy data in the tracking tasks, and dealing with them at different levels of detail. This requirement is particularly suited to the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN). In this paper, we propose the use of LDPN as the integrated framework for tracking in wide-area environments. We illustrate, with the help of a synthetic tracking scenario, how the parameters of the LDPN can be estimated from training data, and then used to draw predictions and answer queries about unseen tracks at various levels of detail.

On the recognition of abstract Markov policies

Abstraction plays an essential role in the way the agents plan their behaviours, especially to reduce the computational complexity of planning in large domains. However, the effects of abstraction in the inverse process – plan recognition – are unclear. In this paper, we present a method for recognising the agent’s behaviour in noisy and uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We use the concept of abstract Markov policies in abstract probabilistic planning as the model of the agent’s behaviours and employ probabilistic inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to infer the correct policy from a sequence of observations. When the states are fully observable, we show that for a broad and often-used class of abstract policies, the complexity of policy recognition scales well with the number of abstraction levels in the policy hierarchy. For the partially observable case, we derive an efficient hybrid inference scheme on the corresponding DBN to overcome the exponential complexity.

Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Proposing the deep dynamic Bayesian network as a future computer based medical system

The development of new learning models has been of great importance throughout recent years, with a focus on creating advances in the area of deep learning. Deep learning was first noted in 2006, and has since become a major area of research in a number of disciplines. This paper will delve into the area of deep learning to present its current limitations and provide a new idea for a fully integrated deep and dynamic probabilistic system. The new model will be applicable to a vast number of areas initially focusing on applications into medical image analysis with an overall goal of utilising this approach for prediction purposes in computer based medical systems.

Phrase-based statistical language generation using graphical models and active learning

Most previous work on trainable language generation has focused on two paradigms: (a) using a statistical model to rank a set of generated utterances, or (b) using statistics to inform the generation decision process. Both approaches rely on the existence of a handcrafted generator, which limits their scalability to new domains. This paper presents BAGEL, a statistical language generator which uses dynamic Bayesian networks to learn from semantically-aligned data produced by 42 untrained annotators. A human evaluation shows that BAGEL can generate natural and informative utterances from unseen inputs in the information presentation domain. Additionally, generation performance on sparse datasets is improved significantly by using certainty-based active learning, yielding ratings close to the human gold standard with a fraction of the data. © 2010 Association for Computational Linguistics.

The Carboxy-Terminal Modulator Protein (CTMP) Regulates Mitochondrial Dynamics

Background: Mitochondria are central to the metabolism of cells and participate in many regulatory and signaling events. They are looked upon as dynamic tubular networks. We showed recently that the Carboxy-Terminal Modulator Protein (CTMP) is a mitochondrial protein that may be released into the cytosol under apoptotic conditions.

Inscribing value on business model innovations: Insights from industrial projects commercializing disruptive digital innovations

In this paper we seek to show how marketing activities inscribe value on business model innovation, representative of an act, or sequence of socially interconnecting acts. Theoretically we ask two interlinked questions: (1) how can value inscriptions contribute to business model innovations? (2) how can marketing activities support the inscription of value on business model innovations? Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with the thirty-seven members from across four industrial projects commercializing disruptive digital innovations. Various individuals from a diverse range of firms are shown to cast relevant components of their agency and knowledge on business model innovations through negotiation as an ongoing social process. Value inscription is mutually constituted from the marketing activities, interactions and negotiations of multiple project members across firms and functions to counter destabilizing forces and tensions arising from the commercialization of disruptive digital innovations. This contributes to recent conceptual thinking in the industrial marketing literature, which views business models as situated within dynamic business networks and a context-led evolutionary process. A contribution is also made to debate in the marketing literature around marketing's boundary-spanning role, with marketing activities shown to span and navigate across functions and firms in supporting value inscriptions on business model innovations.

Inteligência artificial aplicada na previsão de mercados financeiros

Neste documento, são investigados vários métodos usados na inteligência artificial, com o objetivo de obter previsões precisas da evolução dos mercados financeiros. O uso de ferramentas lineares como os modelos AR, MA, ARMA e GARCH têm muitas limitações, pois torna-se muito difícil adaptá-los às não linearidades dos fenómenos que ocorrem nos mercados. Pelas razões anteriormente referidas, os algoritmos como as redes neuronais dinâmicas (TDNN, NARX e ESN), mostram uma maior capacidade de adaptação a estas não linearidades, pois não fazem qualquer pressuposto sobre as distribuições de probabilidade que caracterizam estes mercados. O facto destas redes neuronais serem dinâmicas, faz com que estas exibam um desempenho superior em relação às redes neuronais estáticas, ou outros algoritmos que não possuem qualquer tipo de memória. Apesar das vantagens reveladas pelas redes neuronais, estas são um sistema do tipo black box, o que torna muito difícil extrair informação dos pesos da rede. Isto significa que estes algoritmos devem ser usados com precaução, pois podem tornar-se instáveis.

Input constraints handling in an MPC/feedback linearization scheme

The combination of model predictive control based on linear models (MPC) with feedback linearization (FL) has attracted interest for a number of years, giving rise to MPC+FL control schemes. An important advantage of such schemes is that feedback linearizable plants can be controlled with a linear predictive controller with a fixed model. Handling input constraints within such schemes is difficult since simple bound contraints on the input become state dependent because of the nonlinear transformation introduced by feedback linearization. This paper introduces a technique for handling input constraints within a real time MPC/FL scheme, where the plant model employed is a class of dynamic neural networks. The technique is based on a simple affine transformation of the feasible area. A simulated case study is presented to illustrate the use and benefits of the technique.