A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

Finite element model calibration of an instrumented RC building based on seismic excitation including non-structural components and soil-structure- interaction

Peer reviewed

Finite element model updating of a RC building considering seismic response trends

Peer reviewed

A simplified finite element model for assessing steel fibre reinforced concrete structural performance

The present numerical investigation offers evidence concerning the validity and objectivity of the predictions of a simple, yet practical, finite element model concerning the responses of steel fibre reinforced concrete structural elements under static monotonic and cyclic loading. Emphasis is focused on realistically describing the fully brittle tensile behaviour of plain concrete and the contribution of steel fibres on the post-cracking behaviour it exhibits. The good correlation exhibited between the numerical predictions and their experimental counterparts reveals that, despite its simplicity, the subject model is capable of providing realistic predictions concerning the response of steel fibre reinforced concrete structural configurations exhibiting both ductile and brittle modes of failure without requiring recalibration.

Assessing model credibility of CT-Based finite element model to predict bone strength

Osteoporosis is one of the major causes of mortality among the elderly. Nowadays, areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is used as diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis; however, this is a moderate predictor of the femur fracture risk and does not capture the effect of some anatomical and physiological properties on the bone strength estimation. Data from past research suggest that most fragility femur fractures occur in patients with aBMD values outside the pathological range. Subject-specific finite element models derived from computed tomography data are considered better tools to non-invasively assess hip fracture risk. In particular, the Bologna Biomechanical Computed Tomography (BBCT) is an In Silico methodology that uses a subject specific FE model to predict bone strength. Different studies demonstrated that the modeling pipeline can increase predictive accuracy of osteoporosis detection and assess the efficacy of new antiresorptive drugs. However, one critical aspect that must be properly addressed before using the technology in the clinical practice, is the assessment of the model credibility. The aim of this study was to define and perform verification and uncertainty quantification analyses on the BBCT methodology following the risk-based credibility assessment framework recently proposed in the VV-40 standard. The analyses focused on the main verification tests used in computational solid mechanics: force and moment equilibrium check, mesh convergence analyses, mesh quality metrics study, evaluation of the uncertainties associated to the definition of the boundary conditions and material properties mapping. Results of these analyses showed that the FE model is correctly implemented and solved. The operation that mostly affect the model results is the material properties mapping step. This work represents an important step that, together with the ongoing clinical validation activities, will contribute to demonstrate the credibility of the BBCT methodology.

Root cause analysis applied to a finite element model's refinement of a negative stiffness structure

Negative Stiffness Structures are mechanical systems that require a decrease in the applied force to generate an increase in displacement. They are structures that possess special characteristics such as snap-through and bi-stability. All of these features make them particularly suitable for different applications, such as shock-absorption, vibration isolation and damping. From this point of view, they have risen awareness of their characteristics and, in order to match them to the application needed, a numerical simulation is of great interest. In this regard, this thesis is a continuation of previous studies in a circular negative stiffness structure and aims at refine the numerical model by presenting a new solution. To that end, an investigation procedure is needed. Amongst all of the methods available, root cause analysis was the chosen one to perform the investigation since it provides a clear view of the problem under analysis and a categorization of all the causes behind it. As a result of the cause-effect analysis, the main causes that have influence on the numerical results were obtained. Once all of the causes were listed, solutions to them were proposed and it led to a new numerical model. The numerical model proposed was of nonlinear type of analysis with hexagonal elements and a hyperelastic material model. The results were analyzed through force-displacement curves, allowing for the visualization of the structure’s energy recovery. When compared to the results obtained from the experimental part, it is evident that the trend is similar and the negative stiffness behaviour is present.

Effect of shear rupture on aggregate scale formation in sea ice

A discrete element model is used to study shear rupture of sea ice under convergent wind stresses. The model includes compressive, tensile, and shear rupture of viscous elastic joints connecting floes that move under the action of the wind stresses. The adopted shear rupture is governed by Coulomb’s criterion. The ice pack is a 400 km long square domain consisting of 4 km size floes. In the standard case with tensile strength 10 times smaller than the compressive strength, under uniaxial compression the failure regime is mainly shear rupture with the most probable scenario corresponding to that with the minimum failure work. The orientation of cracks delineating formed aggregates is bimodal with the peaks around the angles given by the wing crack theory determining diamond-shaped blocks. The ice block (floe aggregate) size decreases as the wind stress gradient increases since the elastic strain energy grows faster leading to a higher speed of crack propagation. As the tensile strength grows, shear rupture becomes harder to attain and compressive failure becomes equally important leading to elongation of blocks perpendicular to the compression direction and the blocks grow larger. In the standard case, as the wind stress confinement ratio increases the failure mode changes at a confinement ratio within 0.2–0.4, which corresponds to the analytical critical confinement ratio of 0.32. Below this value, the cracks are bimodal delineating diamond shape aggregates, while above this value failure becomes isotropic and is determined by small-scale stress anomalies due to irregularities in floe shape.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints

Foliation boudinage

In this thesis foliation boudinage and related structures have been studied based on field observations and numerical modeling. Foliation boudinage occurs in foliated rocks independent of lithology contrast. The developing structures are called ‘Foliation boudinage structures (FBSs)’ and show evidence for both ductile and brittle deformation. They are recognized in rocks by perturbations in monotonous foliation adjacent to a central discontinuity, mostly filled with vein material. Foliation boudinage structures have been studied in the Çine Massif in SW-Turkey and the Furka Pass-Urseren Zone in central Switzerland. Four common types have been distinguished in the field, named after vein geometries in their boudin necks in sections normal to the boudin axis: lozenge-, crescent-, X- and double crescent- type FBSs. Lozengetype FBSs are symmetric and characterized by lozenge-shaped veins in their boudin neck with two cusps facing opposite sides. A symmetrical pair of flanking folds occurs on the two sides of the vein. Crescent-type FBSs are asymmetric with a single smoothly curved vein in the boudin neck, with vein contacts facing to one side. X- and double crescent- type FBSs are asymmetric. The geometry of the neck veins resembles that of cuspate-lobate structures. The geometry of flanking structures is related to the shape of the veins. The veins are mostly filled with massive quartz in large single crystals, commonly associated with tourmaline, feldspar and biotite and in some cases with chlorite. The dominance of large facetted single quartz crystals and spherulitic chlorite in the veins suggest that the minerals grew into open fluidfilled space. FLAC experiments show that fracture propagation during ductile deformation strongly influences the geometry of developing veins. The cusps of the veins are better developed in the case of propagating fractures. The shape of the boudin neck veins in foliation boudinage depends on the initial orientation and shape of the fracture, the propagation behaviour of the fracture, the geometry of bulk flow, and the stage at which mineral filling takes place. A two dimensional discrete element model was used to study the progressive development of foliation boudinage structures and the behavior of visco-elastic material deformed under pure shear conditions. Discrete elements are defined by particles that are connected by visco-elastic springs. Springs can break. A number of simulations was Abstract vii performed to investigate the effect of material properties (Young’s modulus, viscosity and breaking strength) and anisotropy on the developing structures. The models show the development of boudinage in single layers, multilayers and in anisotropic materials with random mica distribution. During progressive deformation different types of fractures develop from mode I, mode II to the combination of both. Voids develop along extension fractures, at intersections of conjugate shear fractures and in small pull-apart structures along shear fractures. These patterns look similar to the natural examples. Fractures are more localized in the models where the elastic constants are low and the competence contrast is high between the layers. They propagate through layers where the constants are high and the competence contrast is relatively low. Flow localize around these fractures and voids. The patterns similar to symmetric boudinage structures and extensional neck veins (e.g. lozenge type) more commonly develop in the models with lower elastic constants and anisotropy. The patterns similar to asymmetric foliation boudinage structures (e.g. X-type) develop associated with shear fractures in the models where elastic constants and anisotropy of the materials are relatively high. In these models boudin neck veins form commonly at pull-aparts along the shear fractures and at the intersection of fractures.

Determinación del coeficiente de rozamiento grano-pared en silos de pared corrugada mediante el método de los elementos discretos

El comportamiento de los materiales granulares almacenados en silos se ve afectado por varios parámetros, tanto aquellos característicos del material como de la geometría del silo. La determinación del coeficiente de rozamiento pared-partícula es uno de los parámetros de mayor importancia, siendo habituales en su determinación el uso de ensayos de corte directo. En el presente trabajo se estudia dicho coeficiente para el supuesto de una pared corrugada, el cual, teóricamente, debe representar a un valor efectivo que depende tanto del coeficiente de rozamiento grano-pared (para el caso de una pared lisa) y el ángulo de rozamiento interno del material. La determinación del rozamiento efectivo se ha realizado a través de la simulación por elementos discretos de un ensayo de corte sobre una pared corrugada. Los valores obtenidos han sido comparados con las prescripciones expuestas en la normativa vigente. La potencialidad del método de los elementos discretos permite el estudio de diversas configuraciones geométricas de la pared corrugada de los silos sin necesidad de realizar ensayos de laboratorio. Esto permitirá, en trabajos sucesivos, investigar la influencia de muy diversos factores en el valor del rozamiento efectivo grano-pared en este tipo de paredes. The mechanical behaviour of granular materials stored in silos is affected by numerous parameters, some of them being related to the characteristic of the stored materials and others to the geometry of the silo. The determination of the particle-wall friction coefficient (or wall friction) is of great importance and direct shear tests are usually conducted in order to obtain its value. In this work this variable is analysed for the case of a corrugated wall. This value is expected to be an effective value between the particle-wall friction coefficient (obtained for a flat wall) and the internal friction coefficient of the material under study. The effective wall friction determination has been carried out by using a discrete element model to simulate a direct shear test on a corrugated wall. The values obtained have been compared with prescriptions given in the current standards. The potential of the discrete element method allows different geometries of the silo corrugated wall to be considered without the necessity of developing laboratory tests. In future works it will allow the influence of numerous parameters on the effective wall friction in corrugated walls to be studied.

Comparison of DEM and experiment for a scale model SAG mill

Predictions of flow patterns in a 600-mm scale model SAG mill made using four classes of discrete element method (DEM) models are compared to experimental photographs. The accuracy of the various models is assessed using quantitative data on shoulder, toe and vortex center positions taken from ensembles of both experimental and simulation results. These detailed comparisons reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the various models for simulating mills and allow the effect of different modelling assumptions to be quantitatively evaluated. In particular, very close agreement is demonstrated between the full 3D model (including the end wall effects) and the experiments. It is also demonstrated that the traditional two-dimensional circular particle DEM model under-predicts the shoulder, toe and vortex center positions and the power draw by around 10 degrees. The effect of particle shape and the dimensionality of the model are also assessed, with particle shape predominantly affecting the shoulder position while the dimensionality of the model affects mainly the toe position. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Development of an HTR-10 model in the Serpent reactor physics code

The use of exact coordinates of pebbles and fuel particles of pebble bed reactor modelling becoming possible in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations is an important development step. This allows exact modelling of pebble bed reactors with realistic pebble beds without the placing of pebbles in regular lattices. In this study the multiplication coefficient of the HTR-10 pebble bed reactor is calculated with the Serpent reactor physics code and, using this multiplication coefficient, the amount of pebbles required for the critical load of the reactor. The multiplication coefficient is calculated using pebble beds produced with the discrete element method and three different material libraries in order to compare the results. The received results are lower than those from measured at the experimental reactor and somewhat lower than those gained with other codes in earlier studies.

A multithickness sea ice model accounting for sliding friction

A multithickness sea ice model explicitly accounting for the ridging and sliding friction contributions to sea ice stress is developed. Both ridging and sliding contributions depend on the deformation type through functions adopted from the Ukita and Moritz kinematic model of floe interaction. In contrast to most previous work, the ice strength of a uniform ice sheet of constant ice thickness is taken to be proportional to the ice thickness raised to the 3/2 power, as is revealed in discrete element simulations by Hopkins. The new multithickness sea ice model for sea ice stress has been implemented into the Los Alamos “CICE” sea ice model code and is shown to improve agreement between model predictions and observed spatial distribution of sea ice thickness in the Arctic.