Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Linear Transceiver Design for an Amplify-and-Forward Relay Based on the MBER Criterion

A design methodology based on the Minimum Bit Error Ratio (MBER) framework is proposed for a non-regenerative Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) relay-aided system to determine various linear parameters. We consider both the Relay-Destination (RD) as well as the Source-Relay-Destination (SRD) link design based on this MBER framework, including the pre-coder, the Amplify-and-Forward (AF) matrix and the equalizer matrix of our system. It has been shown in the previous literature that MBER based communication systems are capable of reducing the Bit-Error-Ratio (BER) compared to their Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) based counterparts. We design a novel relay-aided system using various signal constellations, ranging from QPSK to the general M-QAM and M-PSK constellations. Finally, we propose its sub-optimal versions for reducing the computational complexity imposed. Our simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme indeed achieves a significant BER reduction over the existing LMMSE scheme.

Less-is-more effects in knowledge-based heuristic inference

Inference on the basis of recognition alone is assumed to occur prior to accessing further information (Pachur & Hertwig, 2006). A counterintuitive result of this is the “less-is-more” effect: a drop in the accuracy with which choices are made as to which of two or more items scores highest on a given criterion as more items are learned (Frosch, Beaman & McCloy, 2007; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). In this paper, we show that less-is-more effects are not unique to recognition-based inference but can also be observed with a knowledge-based strategy provided two assumptions, limited information and differential access, are met. The LINDA model which embodies these assumptions is presented. Analysis of the less-is-more effects predicted by LINDA and by recognition-driven inference shows that these occur for similar reasons and casts doubt upon the “special” nature of recognition-based inference. Suggestions are made for empirical tests to compare knowledge-based and recognition-based less-is-more effects

Design of alternative energy storage systems for hybrid vehicles based on statistical processing of driving cycles information

Hybrid vehicles represent the future for automakers, since they allow to improve the fuel economy and to reduce the pollutant emissions. A key component of the hybrid powertrain is the Energy Storage System, that determines the ability of the vehicle to store and reuse energy. Though electrified Energy Storage Systems (ESS), based on batteries and ultracapacitors, are a proven technology, Alternative Energy Storage Systems (AESS), based on mechanical, hydraulic and pneumatic devices, are gaining interest because they give the possibility of realizing low-cost mild-hybrid vehicles. Currently, most literature of design methodologies focuses on electric ESS, which are not suitable for AESS design. In this contest, The Ohio State University has developed an Alternative Energy Storage System design methodology. This work focuses on the development of driving cycle analysis methodology that is a key component of Alternative Energy Storage System design procedure. The proposed methodology is based on a statistical approach to analyzing driving schedules that represent the vehicle typical use. Driving data are broken up into power events sequence, namely traction and braking events, and for each of them, energy-related and dynamic metrics are calculated. By means of a clustering process and statistical synthesis methods, statistically-relevant metrics are determined. These metrics define cycle representative braking events. By using these events as inputs for the Alternative Energy Storage System design methodology, different system designs are obtained. Each of them is characterized by attributes, namely system volume and weight. In the last part the work, the designs are evaluated in simulation by introducing and calculating a metric related to the energy conversion efficiency. Finally, the designs are compared accounting for attributes and efficiency values. In order to automate the driving data extraction and synthesis process, a specific script Matlab based has been developed. Results show that the driving cycle analysis methodology, based on the statistical approach, allows to extract and synthesize cycle representative data. The designs based on cycle statistically-relevant metrics are properly sized and have satisfying efficiency values with respect to the expectations. An exception is the design based on the cycle worst-case scenario, corresponding to same approach adopted by the conventional electric ESS design methodologies. In this case, a heavy system with poor efficiency is produced. The proposed new methodology seems to be a valid and consistent support for Alternative Energy Storage System design.

Optimum Design of Electromagnets for Magnetic Levitation of Transport Systems based on the Inverse Problem Solutions

Article is devoted to design of optimum electromagnets for magnetic levitation of transport systems. The method of electromagnets design based on the inverse problem solution of electrical equipment is offered. The method differs from known by introducing a stage of minimization the target functions providing the stated levitation force and magnetic induction in a gap, and also the mass of an electromagnet. Initial values of parameters are received, using approximate formulas of the theory of electric devices and electrical equipment. The example of realization of a method is given. The received results show its high efficiency at design. It is practical to use the offered method and the computer program realizing it as a part of system of the automated design of electric equipment for transport with a magnetic levitation.

Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Most pavement design procedures incorporate reliability to account for design inputs-associated uncertainty and variability effect on predicted performance. The load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure, which delivers economical section while considering design inputs variability separately, has been recognised as an effective tool to incorporate reliability into design procedures. This paper presents a new reliability-based calibration in LRFD format for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking analysis framework. This paper employs a two-component reliability analysis methodology that utilises a central composite design-based response surface approach and a first-order reliability method. The reliability calibration was achieved based on a number of field pavement sections that have well-documented performance history and high-quality field and laboratory data. The effectiveness of the developed LRFD procedure was evaluated by performing pavement designs of various target reliabilities and design conditions. The result shows an excellent agreement between the target and actual reliabilities. Furthermore, it is clear from the results that more design features need to be included in the reliability calibration to minimise the deviation of the actual reliability from the target reliability.

Location-based games : transforming everyday environments into dynamic learning spaces

Location based games (LBGs) provide an opportunity to look at how new technologies can support a reciprocal relationship between formal classroom learning and learning that can potentially occur in other everyday environments. Fundamentally many games are intensely engaging due to the resulting social interactions and technical challenges they provide to individual and group players. By introducing the use of mobile devices we can transport these characteristics of games into everyday spaces. LBGs are understood as a broad genre incorporating ideas and tools that provide many unique opportunities for us to to reveal, create and even subvert various social, cultural, technical, and scientific interpretations of place, in particular places where learning is sometimes problematic.--------- A team of Queensland game developers have learnt a great deal through designing a range of LBGs such as SCOOT for various user groups and places. While these LBGs were primarily designed as social events, we found that the players recognised and valued the game as an opportunity to learn about their environment, it's history, cultural significance, inhabitants, services etc. Since identifying the strong pedagogical outcomes of LBGs, the team has created a set of authoring tools for people to design and host their own LBGs. A particular version of this is known as MiLK the mobile learning kit for schools.---------- This presentation will include examples of how LBGs have been used to improve the teaching and learning outcomes in various contexts. Participants will be introduced to MiLK and invited to trial it in their own classrooms with students.

A synthesizable hardware evolutionary algorithm design for unmanned aerial system real-time path planning

The main objective of this paper is to detail the development of a feasible hardware design based on Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to determine flight path planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) navigating terrain with obstacle boundaries. The design architecture includes the hardware implementation of Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) terrain and EA population memories within the hardware, as well as the EA search and evaluation algorithms used in the optimizing stage of path planning. A synthesisable Very-high-speed integrated circuit Hardware Description Language (VHDL) implementation of the design was developed, for realisation on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. Simulation results show significant speedup compared with an equivalent software implementation written in C++, suggesting that the present approach is well suited for UAV real-time path planning applications.

Learning by design workshop

The Learning by Design Workshop Program 2010, a part of the Queensland Government Unlimited: Designing for the Asia Pacific Event Program, was a one-day professional development design thinking workshop run on October 9, 2011 at The Edge, State Library of Queensland for self-selected public and private secondary school teachers from the subject areas of Visual Art, Graphics and Industrial Technology and Design. Participants were drawn from a database of Brisbane and regional Queensland schools from the goDesign and Living City Workshop Programs. It aimed to generate leadership within schools for design-led education and creative thinking and give teachers a rare opportunity to work with professional designers to generate future strategies for design-based learning. Teachers were introduced to the concept of design thinking in education by international keynote speakers CJ Lim (Studio 8 Architects) and Jeb Brugmann (The Next Practice), national speaker Oliver Freeman (NevilleFreeman Agency) and three Queensland speakers, Alexander Loterztain, David Williams and Keith Holledge. Inspired by the Unlimited showcase exhibition Make Change: Design Thinking in Action and ‘Idea Starters’/teaching resources provided, teachers worked with a professional designer (from a discipline of architecture, interior design, industrial design, urban design, graphic design or landscape architecture) in ten random teams, to generate optimistic ideas for the Ideal City of tomorrow, each considering a theme – Food, Water, Transport, Ageing, Growth, Employment, Shelter, Health, Education and Energy. They then discussed how this process could be best activated and expanded on to build interest and knowledge in design thinking in the classroom. Assisted by illustrators, the teams prepared a visual presentation of their ideas and process from art materials provided. The workshop culminated in a video-taped interactive design charette to the larger group, which is intended to be utilised as a toolkit and praxis for teachers as part of the State Library of Queensland Design Minds Website Project.

The heart of quality teaching : a values-based pedagogy for pre-service teacher education

In an ever changing world the adults of the future will be faced with many challenges. To cope with these challenges it seems apparent that values education will need to become paramount within a child.s education. A considerable number of research studies have indicated that values education is a critical component within education (Lovat & Toomey, 2007b). Building on this research Lovat (2006) claimed that values education was the missing link in quality teaching The concept of quality teaching had risen to the fore within educational research literature in the late 20th century with the claim that it is the teacher who makes the difference in schooling (Hattie, 2004). Thus, if teachers make such a difference to student learning, achievement and well-being, then it must hold true that pre-service teacher education programmes are vital in ensuring the development of quality teachers for our schools. The gap that this current research programme addressed was to link the fields of values education, quality teaching and pre-service teacher education. This research programme aimed to determine the impact of a values-based pedagogy on the development of quality teaching dimensions within pre-service teacher education. The values-based pedagogy that was investigated in this research programme was Philosophy in the Classroom. The research programme adopted a nested case study design based on the constructivist-interpretative paradigm in examining a unit within a pre-service teacher education programme at a Queensland university. The methodology utilised was qualitative where the main source of data was via interviews. In total, 43 pre-service teachers participated in three studies in order to determine if their involvement in a unit where the focus was on introducing pre-service teachers to an explicit values-based pedagogy impacted on their knowledge, skills and confidence in terms of quality teaching dimensions. The research programme was divided into three separate studies in order to address the two research questions: 1. In what ways do pre-service teachers perceive they are being prepared to become quality teachers? 2. Is there a connection between an explicit values-based pedagogy in pre-service teacher education and the development of pre-service teachers. understanding of quality teaching? Study One provided insight into 21 pre-service teachers. understandings of quality teaching. These 21 participants had not engaged in an explicit values-based pedagogy. Study Two involved the interviewing of 22 pre-service teachers at two separate points in time . prior to exposure to a unit that employed a values-explicit pedagogy and post this subject.s lecture content delivery. Study Three reported on and analysed individual case studies of five pre-service teachers who had participated in Study Two Time 1 and Time 2, as well as a third time following their field experience where they had practice in teaching the values explicit pedagogy. The results of the research demonstrate that an explicit values-based pedagogy introduced into a teacher education programme has a positive impact on the development of pre-service teachers. understanding of quality teaching skills and knowledge. The teaching and practice of a values-based pedagogy positively impacted on pre-service teachers with increases of knowledge, skills and confidence demonstrated on the quality teaching dimensions of intellectual quality, a supportive classroom environment, recognition of difference, connectedness and values. These findings were reinforced through the comparison of pre-service teachers who had participated in the explicit values-based pedagogical approach, with a sample of pre-service teachers who had not engaged in this same values-based pedagogical approach. A solid values-based pedagogy and practice can and does enhance pre-service teachers. understanding of quality teaching. These findings surrounding the use of a values-based pedagogy in pre-service teacher education to enhance quality teaching knowledge and skills has contributed theoretically to the field of educational research, as well having practical implications for teacher education institutions and teacher educators.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

Design minds : an online design education platform for non-designers to enact cultural change

Education in the 21st century demands a model for understanding a new culture of learning in the face of rapid change, open access data and geographical diversity. Teachers no longer need to provide the latest information because students themselves are taking an active role in peer collectives to help create it. This paper examines, through an Australian case study entitled ‘Design Minds’, the development of an online design education platform as a key initiative to enact a government priority for state-wide cultural change through design-based curriculum. Utilising digital technology to create a supportive community, ‘Design Minds’ recognises that interdisciplinary learning fostered through engagement will empower future citizens to think, innovate, and discover. This paper details the participatory design process undertaken with multiple stakeholders to create the platform. It also outlines a proposed research agenda for future measurement of its value in creating a new learning culture, supporting regional and remote communities, and revitalising frontline services. It is anticipated this research will inform ongoing development of the online platform, and future design education and research programs in K-12 schools in Australia.

A Kansei approach to passenger terminal design

Current approaches to passenger terminal design are based on a direct relationship between the number of travelers and the size of the passenger terminal building: as one increases, so does the other. Over the next several decades, it is believed that the number of travelers worldwide will increase significantly. It follows, therefore, that in order to process these additional passengers, airports will need to build larger terminal facilities. Unfortunately, this is not a viable option for many airports due to financial, economic, operational and general space constraints. In this paper, we explore a new way of approaching terminal design based on a passenger oriented perspective. In doing so, we extend an interpretation of the Kansei design concept and show how it may be applicable towards the creation of new design paradigms in aviation. Our results are based on data collected in-situ at a major international terminal during 2012.

Young children's statistical reasoning : a tale of two contexts

This thesis explored the knowledge and reasoning of young children in solving novel statistical problems, and the influence of problem context and design on their solutions. It found that young children's statistical competencies are underestimated, and that problem design and context facilitated children's application of a wide range of knowledge and reasoning skills, none of which had been taught. A qualitative design-based research method, informed by the Models and Modeling perspective (Lesh & Doerr, 2003) underpinned the study. Data modelling activities incorporating picture story books were used to contextualise the problems. Children applied real-world understanding to problem solving, including attribute identification, categorisation and classification skills. Intuitive and metarepresentational knowledge together with inductive and probabilistic reasoning was used to make sense of data, and beginning awareness of statistical variation and informal inference was visible.

Sectional analysis of the pollutant wash-off process based on runoff hydrograph

The validity of using rainfall characteristics as lumped parameters for investigating the pollutant wash-off process such as first flush occurrence is questionable. This research study introduces an innovative concept of using sector parameters to investigate the relationship between the pollutant wash-off process and different sectors of the runoff hydrograph and rainfall hyetograph. The research outcomes indicated that rainfall depth and rainfall intensity are two key rainfall characteristics which influence the wash-off process compared to the antecedent dry period. Additionally, the rainfall pattern also plays a critical role in the wash-off process and is independent of the catchment characteristics. The knowledge created through this research study provides the ability to select appropriate rainfall events for stormwater quality treatment design based on the required treatment outcomes such as the need to target different sectors of the runoff hydrograph or pollutant species. The study outcomes can also contribute to enhancing stormwater quality modelling and prediction in view of the fact that conventional approaches to stormwater quality estimation is primarily based on rainfall intensity rather than considering other rainfall parameters or solely based on stochastic approaches irrespective of the characteristics of the rainfall event.