Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

The Impact of Readily Detected- and Underlying Attributes on Social Integration in Cross-Cultural Settings

The benefits and drawbacks of homogeneity and heterogeneity have been debated at length. Whereas some researchers assert that heterogeneity is beneficial for groups that are engaged in complex problem solving, the other researchers emphasize the potential costs associated with diversity. The inconsistency is a result of the incomplete measurement of diversity and focus one or two types of diversity. Most research concentrates on the readily detected/visible characteristics, making the assumption that such characteristics are related to underlying attributes (e.g., attitudes and values). In many cases, the demographic characteristics do not covary perfectly with the psychological attributes. Thus both types of attributes need to be utilized to fully understand the impact of diversity. The present research with four essays takes into account both types of attributes and tests their impact on social integration in cross-cultural settings. The results indicate that: (1) readily detectable- and underlying attributes are not related; (2) diversity has overall a negative impact on social integration; (3) socio-cultural context potentially influences the salience of diversity; and (4) diversity and social integration influences the formation of social cognition in form of transactive memory directories. The limits of research and managerial implications are discussed.

Early warning sign attributes for the safety of drinking water treatment works

A proactive risk management strategy seeks to prevent accidents from taking place and maintain the safety of a system. In this context, the task of identifying and disseminating early warning signs and signals is among the most important. The problem is that warning signs that are present before an accident takes place are often being overlooked and not picked up or identified as warning signs. If these warning signs were responded to, then an accident may be averted. Accidents occuring in the critical domain of a drinking water treatments works can have serious implications for the public health of consumers of the water supplied. Realising and comprehending early warning signs is a major challenge for the domain of systems safety and especially in the domain of a water treatment works. The approaches that are typically used to enhance the realisation, comprehension and dissemination of early warning signs in the water treatment domain in Ireland mainly involves the creation of accident scenarios, the use of monitoring data and procedures for the dissemination of warnings. While all of these approaches are all useful to inform the mental or process models of possible accident scenarios, nevertheless, accidents are still occurring in this domain. Therefore, a new approach to enhance the comprehension of and effective dissemination of early warning signs is required in order to improve safety and proactive risk management strategies. The contributions of this thesis is the provision of a set of attributes associated with the early warning sign concept that provides meaningful data on the early warning signs and allows recipients to better comprehend them. The values of these attributes were customised for application in the water treatment domain. This research proves that early warning signs at a water treatment works received with information on their attributes are comprehended and communicated more effectively and efficiently than the usual pragmatic approach and thereby improves the safety and proactive risk management strategies.

Oil and Dependency::The Case of Kazakhstan

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent oil-rich country of Kazakhstan has become a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). Although international organisations such as the IMF and UNCTAD have claimed that FDI could be considered an engine in the transition from state socialism and as a powerful force for integration of this region into the global economy; this investment also poses significant risks to Kazakhstan. These risks fall into two broad categories: The first category can be broadly described as issues associated with the “resource curse” or the “Dutch Disease”. The term Dutch Disease describes a situation where booming demand in oil exporting countries, due to high oil revenues, leads to shift of an economy’s productive resources from the tradeable sector to the non-tradeable sector. The second category is associated with the over-dependency of oil exporting countries on a relatively small number of large multinational corporations (MNCs). This over-dependency can lead to a situation where licenses and concessions are granted at less favourable conditions than if they were auctioned in an efficient market. Examining the licensing policy of the Kazakhstani Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, this paper notes that the latter issue of over-dependency has become less of a risk due to deliberate efforts to diversify investment relationships. Notwithstanding this situation there is some evidence that it remains difficult for oil exporting nations such as Kazakhstan to ensure that oil revenues are channelled into sustainable economic development.

Export Supply Chain Organization and Food Safety and Quality Standards: a case study of the Moroccan Fruit and Vegetable Sector

Agri-food supply chains extend beyond national boundaries, partially facilitated by a policy environment that encourages more liberal international trade. Rising concentration within the downstream sector has driven a shift towards “buyer-driven” global value chains (GVCs) extending internationally with global sourcing and the emergence of multinational key economic players that compete with increase emphasis on product quality attributes. Agri-food systems are thus increasingly governed by a range of inter-related public and private standards, both of which are becoming a priori mandatory, especially in supply chains for high-value and quality-differentiated agri-food products and tend to strongly affect upstream agricultural practices, firms’ internal organization and strategic behaviour and to shape the food chain organization. Notably, increasing attention has been given to the impact of SPS measures on agri-food trade and notably on developing countries’ export performance. Food and agricultural trade is the vital link in the mutual dependency of the global trade system and developing countries. Hence, developing countries derive a substantial portion of their income from food and agricultural trade. In Morocco, fruit and vegetable (especially fresh) are the primary agricultural export. Because of the labor intensity, this sector (especially citrus and tomato) is particularly important in terms of income and employment generation, especially for the female laborers hired in the farms and packing houses. Hence, the emergence of agricultural and agrifood product safety issues and the subsequent tightening of market requirements have challenged mutual gains due to the lack of technical and financial capacities of most developing countries.

Formalizing a Conceptual Framework of Work Domain Knowledge

Background: The failure rate of health information systems is high, partially due to fragmented, incomplete, or incorrect identification and description of specific and critical domain requirements. In order to systematically transform the requirements of work into real information system, an explicit conceptual framework is essential to summarize the work requirements and guide system design. Recently, Butler, Zhang, and colleagues proposed a conceptual framework called Work Domain Ontology (WDO) to formally represent users’ work. This WDO approach has been successfully demonstrated in a real world design project on aircraft scheduling. However, as a top level conceptual framework, this WDO has not defined an explicit and well specified schema (WDOS) , and it does not have a generalizable and operationalized procedure that can be easily applied to develop WDO. Moreover, WDO has not been developed for any concrete healthcare domain. These limitations hinder the utility of WDO in real world information system in general and in health information system in particular. Objective: The objective of this research is to formalize the WDOS, operationalize a procedure to develop WDO, and evaluate WDO approach using Self-Nutrition Management (SNM) work domain. Method: Concept analysis was implemented to formalize WDOS. Focus group interview was conducted to capture concepts in SNM work domain. Ontology engineering methods were adopted to model SNM WDO. Part of the concepts under the primary goal “staying healthy” for SNM were selected and transformed into a semi-structured survey to evaluate the acceptance, explicitness, completeness, consistency, experience dependency of SNM WDO. Result: Four concepts, “goal, operation, object and constraint”, were identified and formally modeled in WDOS with definitions and attributes. 72 SNM WDO concepts under primary goal were selected and transformed into semi-structured survey questions. The evaluation indicated that the major concepts of SNM WDO were accepted by 41 overweight subjects. SNM WDO is generally independent of user domain experience but partially dependent on SNM application experience. 23 of 41 paired concepts had significant correlations. Two concepts were identified as ambiguous concepts. 8 extra concepts were recommended towards the completeness of SNM WDO. Conclusion: The preliminary WDOS is ready with an operationalized procedure. SNM WDO has been developed to guide future SNM application design. This research is an essential step towards Work-Centered Design (WCD).

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Balancing curriculum processes and content in a project centred curriculum - In pursuit of graduate attributes

Chemical engineering education is challenged around the world by demands and rapid changes encompassing a wide range of technical and social drivers. Graduates must be prepared for practice in increasingly diverse workplace environments in which generic or transferable attributes such as communication and teamwork together with technical excellence are mandated by prospective employers and society at large. If academe is to successfully deliver on these graduate attributes, effective curriculum design needs to include appropriate educational processes as well as course content. Conventional teacher centred approaches, stand-alone courses and retro-fitted remedial modules have not delivered the desired outcomes. Development of the broader spectrum of attributes is more likely when students are engaged with realistic and relevant experiences that demand the integration and practice of these attributes in contexts that the students find meaningful. This paper describes and evaluates The University of Queensland's Project Centred Curriculum in Chemical Engineering (PCC), a programme-wide approach to meeting these requirements. PCC strategically integrates project-based learning with more traditional instruction. Data collected shows improved levels of student attainment of generic skills with institutional and nationally benchmarked indicators showing significant increases in student perceptions of teaching quality, and overall satisfaction with the undergraduate experience. Endorsements from Australian academic, professional and industry bodies also support the approach as more effectively aligning engineering education with professional practice requirements.

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.

Attractiveness of venture ideas : a conjoint study

Principal Topic : According to Shane & Venkataraman (2000) entrepreneurship consists of the recognition and exploitation of venture ideas - or opportunities as they often called - to create future goods and services. This definition puts venture ideas is at the heart of entrepreneurship research. Substantial research has been done on venture ideas in order to enhance our understanding of this phenomenon (e.g. Choi & Shepherd, 2004; Shane, 2000; Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005). However, we are yet to learn what factors drive entrepreneurs' perceptions of the relative attractiveness of venture ideas, and how important different idea characteristics are for such assessments. Ruef (2002) recognized that there is an uneven distribution of venture ideas undertaken by entrepreneurs in the USA. A majority introduce either a new product/service or access a new market or market segment. A smaller percentage of entrepreneurs introduce a new method of production, organizing, or distribution. This implies that some forms of venture ideas are perceived by entrepreneurs as more important or valuable than others. However, Ruef does not provide any information regarding why some forms of venture ideas are more common than others among entrepreneurs. Therefore, this study empirically investigates what factors affect the attractiveness of venture ideas as well as their relative importance. Based on two key characteristics of venture ideas, namely venture idea newness and relatedness, our study investigates how different types and degrees of newness and relatedness of venture ideas affect their attractiveness as perceived by expert entrepreneurs. Methodology/Key : Propositions According to Schumpeter (1934) entrepreneurs introduce different types of venture ideas such as new products/services, new method of production, enter into new markets/customer and new method of promotion. Further, according to Schumpeter (1934) and Kirzner (1973) venture ideas introduced to the market range along a continuum of innovative to imitative ideas. The distinction between these two extremes of venture idea highlights an important property of venture idea, namely their newness. Entrepreneurs, in order to gain competitive advantage or above average returns introduce their venture ideas which may be either new to the world, new to the market that they seek to enter, substantially improved from current offerings and an imitative form of existing offerings. Expert entrepreneurs may be more attracted to venture ideas that exhibit high degree of newness because of the higher newness is coupled with increased market potential (Drucker, 1985) Moreover, certain individual characteristics also affect the attractiveness of venture idea. According to Shane (2000), individual's prior knowledge is closely associated with the recognition of venture ideas. Sarasvathy's (2001) Effectuation theory proposes a high degree of relatedness between venture ideas and the resource position of the individual. Thus, entrepreneurs may be more attracted to venture ideas that are closely aligned with the knowledge and/or resources they already possess. On the other hand, the potential financial gain (Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005) may be larger for ideas that are not close to the entrepreneurs' home turf. Therefore, potential financial gain is a stimulus that has to be considered separately. We aim to examine how entrepreneurs weigh considerations of different forms of newness and relatedness as well as potential financial gain in assessing the attractiveness of venture ideas. We use conjoint analysis to determine how expert entrepreneurs develop preferences for venture ideas which involved with different degrees of newness, relatedness and potential gain. This analytical method paves way to measure the trade-offs they make when choosing a particular venture idea. The conjoint analysis estimates respondents' preferences in terms of utilities (or part-worth) for each level of newness, relatedness and potential gain of venture ideas. A sample of 50 expert entrepreneurs who were awarded young entrepreneurship awards in Sri Lanka in 2007 is used for interviews. Each respondent is interviewed providing with 32 scenarios which explicate different combinations of possible profiles open them into consideration. Conjoint software (SPSS) is used to analyse data. Results and Implications : The data collection of this study is still underway. However, results of this study will provide information regarding the attractiveness of each level of newness, relatedness and potential gain of venture idea and their relative importance in a business model. Additionally, these results provide important implications for entrepreneurs, consultants and other stakeholders as regards the importance of different of attributes of venture idea coupled with different levels. Entrepreneurs, consultants and other stakeholders could make decisions accordingly.

Attribute exclusion strategies in airline choice : accounting for exogenous information on decision maker processing strategies in models of discrete choice

We examine the impact of individual-specific information processing strategies (IPSs) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of discrete choice. Current practice assumes that individuals employ a homogenous IPS with regards to how they process attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We show how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute may be used in the estimation process, and how such information provides outputs that are IPS segment specific. We contend that accounting the inclusion/exclusion of attributes will result in behaviourally richer population parameter estimates.

Flexural and torsional rigidity of colonoscope at room and body temperatures

A series of experiments have been conducted to determine the flexural, EI, and torsional, GJ, rigidity of an Olympus colonoscope CF‐140S and torsional rigidity of a Pentax colonoscope EC‐3870 and the dependency of these properties on temperature and on the presence of loops. Along the length of the colonoscope, the Olympus colonoscope flexural rigidity varied between 260 and 400 Ncm2 and torsional rigidity varied between 68 and 88 Ncm2/deg, with an average of 76 Ncm2/deg for tests involving 0.86 Nm of anti‐clockwise torque. Results show a significant decrease of 10% in torsional rigidity between clockwise and anti‐clockwise torque. For the Pentax colonoscope flexural rigidity was not tested; its torsional rigidity varied between 34 and 76 Ncm2/deg, with an average of 46 Ncm2/deg for tests involving 0.43 Nm of anti‐clockwise torque. An increase in temperature of the Olympus colonoscope from 24°C to 37°C reduces EI by an average of 17% and GJ by an average of 7%. A right‐handed loop caused a significant increase in flexural rigidity, but other looping configurations had no significant influence.

Application of machine learning in fault diagnostics of mechanical systems

A diagnostic method based on Bayesian Networks (probabilistic graphical models) is presented. Unlike conventional diagnostic approaches, in this method instead of focusing on system residuals at one or a few operating points, diagnosis is done by analyzing system behavior patterns over a window of operation. It is shown how this approach can loosen the dependency of diagnostic methods on precise system modeling while maintaining the desired characteristics of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) tools (fault isolation, robustness, adaptability, and scalability) at a satisfactory level. As an example, the method is applied to fault diagnosis in HVAC systems, an area with considerable modeling and sensor network constraints.

An analytical and experimental study of the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate

An analytical solution is presented in this paper for the vibration response of a ribbed plate clamped on all its boundary edges by employing a travelling wave solution. A clamped ribbed plate test rig is also assembled in this study for the experimental investigation of the ribbed plate response and to provide verification results to the analytical solution. The dynamic characteristics and mode shapes of the ribbed plate are measured and compared to those obtained from the analytical solution and from finite element analysis (FEA). General good agreements are found between the results. Discrepancies between the computational and experimental results at low and high frequencies are also discussed. Explanations are offered in the study to disclose the mechanism causing the discrepancies. The dependency of the dynamic response of the ribbed plate on the distance between the excitation force and the rib is also investigated experimentally. It confirms the findings disclosed in a previous analytical study [T. R. Lin and J. Pan, A closed form solution for the dynamic response of finite ribbed plates. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 119 (2006) 917-925] that the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate due to a point force excitation is controlled by the plate stiffness when the source is more than a quarter plate bending wavelength away from the rib and from the plate boundary. The response is largely affected by the rib stiffness when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the rib.

Prandtl number scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate due to uniform surface heat flux

A new scaling analysis has been performed for the unsteady natural convection boundary layer under a downward facing inclined plate with uniform heat flux. The development of the thermal or viscous boundary layers may be classified into three distinct stages including a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical as well as numerical results. Earlier scaling shows that the existing scaling laws of the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time scale for the natural convection flow on a heated plate of uniform heat flux provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings performed very well with Rayleigh number and aspect ratio dependency. In this study, a new Prandtl number scaling has been developed using a triple-layer integral approach for Pr > 1. It is seen that in comparison to the direct numerical simulations, the new scaling performs considerably better than the previous scaling.