Iowa Pavement Asset Management Decision-Making Framework & Pavement Treatment Selection Tool for Local Agencies, TR-651, 2015

Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data of agency pavements also contributes to this problem. This study developed a systematic pavement treatment selection framework for local agencies to assist them in selecting the most appropriate treatment and to help justify their maintenance and rehabilitation decisions. The framework is based on an extensive literature review of the various pavement treatment techniques in terms of their technical applicability and limitations, meaningful practices of neighboring states, and the results of a survey of local agencies. The treatment selection framework involves three different steps: pavement condition assessment, selection of technically feasible treatments using decision trees, and selection of the most appropriate treatment considering the return-on-investment (ROI) and other non-economic factors. An Excel-based spreadsheet tool that automates the treatment selection framework was also developed, along with a standalone user guide for the tool. The Pavement Treatment Selection Tool (PTST) for Local Agencies allows users to enter the severity and extent levels of existing distresses and then, recommends a set of technically feasible treatments. The tool also evaluates the ROI of each feasible treatment and, if necessary, it can also evaluate the non-economic value of each treatment option to help determine the most appropriate treatment for the pavement. It is expected that the framework and tool will help local agencies improve their pavement asset management practices significantly and make better economic and defensible decisions on pavement treatment selection.

The timing of exploratory decision-making revealed by single-trial topographic EEGanalyses.

Decision-making in an uncertain environment is driven by two major needs: exploring the environment to gather information or exploiting acquired knowledge to maximize reward. The neural processes underlying exploratory decision-making have been mainly studied by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging, overlooking any information about the time when decisions are made. Here, we carried out an electroencephalography (EEG) experiment, in order to detect the time when the brain generators responsible for these decisions have been sufficiently activated to lead to the next decision. Our analyses, based on a classification scheme, extract time-unlocked voltage topographies during reward presentation and use them to predict the type of decisions made on the subsequent trial. Classification accuracy, measured as the area under the Receiver Operator's Characteristic curve was on average 0.65 across 7 subjects. Classification accuracy was above chance levels already after 516 ms on average, across subjects. We speculate that decisions were already made before this critical period, as confirmed by a positive correlation with reaction times across subjects. On an individual subject basis, distributed source estimations were performed on the extracted topographies to statistically evaluate the neural correlates of decision-making. For trials leading to exploration, there was significantly higher activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the right supramarginal gyrus; areas responsible for modulating behavior under risk and deduction. No area was more active during exploitation. We show for the first time the temporal evolution of differential patterns of brain activation in an exploratory decision-making task on a single-trial basis.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Does working memory training affect decision making ? : a neuroeconomic study

We all make decisions of varying levels of importance every day. Because making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, almost all decision involves some conflicts or dissatisfaction. Traditional economic models esteem that a person must weight the positive and negative outcomes of each option, and based on all these inferences, determines which option is the best for that particular situation. However, individuals rather act as irrational agents and tend to deviate from these rational choices. They somewhat evaluate the outcomes' subjective value, namely, when they face a risky choice leading to losses, people are inclined to have some preference for risk over certainty, while when facing a risky choice leading to gains, people often avoid to take risks and choose the most certain option. Yet, it is assumed that decision making is balanced between deliberative and emotional components. Distinct neural regions underpin these factors: the deliberative pathway that corresponds to executive functions, implies the activation of the prefrontal cortex, while the emotional pathway tends to activate the limbic system. These circuits appear to be altered in individuals with ADHD, and result, amongst others, in impaired decision making capacities. Their impulsive and inattentive behaviors are likely to be the cause of their irrational attitude towards risk taking. Still, a possible solution is to administrate these individuals a drug treatment, with the knowledge that it might have several side effects. However, an alternative treatment that relies on cognitive rehabilitation might be appropriate. This project was therefore aimed at investigate whether an intensive working memory training could have a spillover effect on decision making in adults with ADHD and in age-matched healthy controls. We designed a decision making task where the participants had to select an amount to gamble with the chance of 1/3 to win four times the chosen amount, while in the other cases they could loose their investment. Their performances were recorded using electroencephalography prior and after a one-month Dual N-Back training and the possible near and far transfer effects were investigated. Overall, we found that the performance during the gambling task was modulated by personality factors and by the importance of the symptoms at the pretest session. At posttest, we found that all individuals demonstrated an improvement on the Dual N-Back and on similar untrained dimensions. In addition, we discovered that not only the adults with ADHD showed a stable decrease of the symptomatology, as evaluated by the CAARS inventory, but this reduction was also detected in the control samples. In addition, Event-Related Potential (ERP) data are in favor of an change within prefrontal and parietal cortices. These results suggest that cognitive remediation can be effective in adults with ADHD, and in healthy controls. An important complement of this work would be the examination of the data in regard to the attentional networks, which could empower the fact that complex programs covering the remediation of several executive functions' dimensions is not required, a unique working memory training can be sufficient. -- Nous prenons tous chaque jour des décisions ayant des niveaux d'importance variables. Toutes les décisions ont une composante conflictuelle et d'insatisfaction, car prendre une décision implique qu'il y ait des choix alternatifs à considérer. Les modèles économiques traditionnels estiment qu'une personne doit peser les conséquences positives et négatives de chaque option et en se basant sur ces inférences, détermine quelle option est la meilleure dans une situation particulière. Cependant, les individus peuvent dévier de ces choix rationnels. Ils évaluent plutôt les valeur subjective des résultats, c'est-à-dire que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les mener à des pertes, les gens ont tendance à avoir des préférences pour le risque à la place de la certitude, tandis que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les conduire à un gain, ils évitent de prendre des risques et choisissent l'option la plus su^re. De nos jours, il est considéré que la prise de décision est balancée entre des composantes délibératives et émotionnelles. Ces facteurs sont sous-tendus par des régions neurales distinctes: le chemin délibératif, correspondant aux fonctions exécutives, implique l'activation du cortex préfrontal, tandis que le chemin émotionnel active le système limbique. Ces circuits semblent être dysfonctionnels chez les individus ayant un TDAH, et résulte, entre autres, en des capacités de prise de décision altérées. Leurs comportements impulsifs et inattentifs sont probablement la cause de ces attitudes irrationnelles face au risque. Cependant, une solution possible est de leur administrer un traitement médicamenteux, en prenant en compte les potentiels effets secondaires. Un traitement alternatif se reposant sur une réhabilitation cognitive pourrait être appropriée. Le but de ce projet est donc de déterminer si un entrainement intensif de la mémoire de travail peut avoir un effet sur la prise de décision chez des adultes ayant un TDAH et chez des contrôles sains du même âge. Nous avons conçu une tâche de prise de décision dans laquelle les participants devaient sélectionner un montant à jouer en ayant une chance sur trois de gagner quatre fois le montant choisi, alors que dans l'autre cas, ils pouvaient perdre leur investissement. Leurs performances ont été enregistrées en utilisant l'électroencéphalographie avant et après un entrainement d'un mois au Dual N-Back, et nous avons étudié les possibles effets de transfert. Dans l'ensemble, nous avons trouvé au pré-test que les performances au cours du jeu d'argent étaient modulées par les facteurs de personnalité, et par le degré des sympt^omes. Au post-test, nous avons non seulement trouvé que les adultes ayant un TDAH montraient une diminutions stable des symptômes, qui étaient évalués par le questionnaire du CAARS, mais que cette réduction était également perçue dans l'échantillon des contrôles. Les rsultats expérimentaux mesurés à l'aide de l'éléctroencéphalographie suggèrent un changement dans les cortex préfrontaux et pariétaux. Ces résultats suggèrent que la remédiation cognitive est efficace chez les adultes ayant un TDAH, mais produit aussi un effet chez les contrôles sains. Un complément important de ce travail pourrait examiner les données sur l'attention, qui pourraient renforcer l'idée qu'il n'est pas nécessaire d'utiliser des programmes complexes englobant la remédiation de plusieurs dimensions des fonctions exécutives, un simple entraiment de la mémoire de travail devrait suffire.

Clinical utility of a molecular test in adjuvant treatment decision making in women with endocrine-sensitive early stage breast cancer: a retrospective, single center one year experience

Background. Molecular tests for breast cancer (BC) risk assessment are reimbursed by health insurances in Switzerland since the beginning of year 2015. The main current role of these tests is to help oncologists to decide about the usefulness of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with early stage endocrine-sensitive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative BC. These gene expression signatures aim at predicting the risk of recurrence in this subgroup. One of them (OncotypeDx/OT) also predicts distant metastases rate with or without the addition of cytotoxic chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. The clinical utility of these tests -in addition to existing so-called "clinico-pathological" prognostic and predictive criteria (e.g. stage, grade, biomarkers status)-is still debated. We report a single center one year experience of the use of one molecular test (OT) in clinical decision making. Methods. We extracted from the CHUV Breast Cancer Center data base the total number of BC cases with estrogen-receptor positive (ER+), HER2-negative early breast cancer (node negative (pN0) disease or micrometastases in up to 3 lymph nodes) operated between September 2014 and August 2015. For the cases from this group in which a molecular test had been decided by the tumor board, we collected the clinicopathologic parameters, the initial tumor board decision, and the final adjuvant systemic therapy decision. Results. A molecular test (OT) was done in 12.2% of patients with ER + HER2 negative early BC. The median age was 57.4 years and the median invasive tumor size was 1.7 cm. These patients were classified by ODX testing (Recurrence Score) into low-, intermediate-, and high risk groups, respectively in 27.2%, 63.6% and 9% of cases. Treatment recommendations changed in 18.2%, predominantly from chemotherapyendocrine therapy to endocrine treatment alone. Of 8 patients originally recommended chemotherapy, 25% were recommended endocrine treatment alone after receiving the Recurrence Score result. Conclusions. Though reimbursed by health insurances since January 2015, molecular tests are used moderately in our institution as per the decision of the multidisciplinary tumor board. It's mainly used to obtain a complementary confirmation supporting the decision of no chemotherapy. The OncotypeDx Recurrence Score results were in the intermediate group in 66% of the 9 tested cases but contributed to avoid chemotherapy in 2 patients during the last 12 months.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decisionmakers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reducednumber of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between theseactors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-knownmulticriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow theso-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al.,1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknownvariance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative prioritiesof the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of themedian of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner(priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will beused in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution ofthe problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Effect of emotions on consumer decision-making in a high involvement product adoption context

This thesis was written in order participate in the emergent discussion on the role of emotions in consumer decision-making. The goal of the thesis was to find out which emotions affect consumer decision-making, how these emotions relate to traditional process models of consumer decision-making, and how emotions and other factors affect consumer decision-making. The thesis is placed into a context of high involvement product adoption. The empirical research was conducted according to a qualitative methodology, which combined video diaries and face-to-face or Skype interviews as data collection methods. The case product category was dancing poles, and four women participated in the study. The central results indicate that emotion and cognition walk hand in hand in consumer decision-making, that consumers experience a variety of emotions during a decision-making process, and that emotions have an important effect on consumer decision-making and consumer behavior.

Immediate Decision-Making and Information Needs in Intensive Care Coordination

The aim of this study was to develop a theoretical model for information integration to support the deci¬sion making of intensive care charge nurses, and physicians in charge – that is, ICU shift leaders. The study focused on the ad hoc decision-making and immediate information needs of shift leaders during the management of an intensive care unit’s (ICU) daily activities. The term ‘ad hoc decision-making’ was defined as critical judgements that are needed for a specific purpose at a precise moment with the goal of ensuring instant and adequate patient care and a fluent flow of ICU activities. Data collection and research analysis methods were tested in the identification of ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decision-making. Decision-making of ICU charge nurses (n = 12) and physicians in charge (n = 8) was observed using a think-aloud technique in two university-affiliated Finnish ICUs for adults. The ad hoc decisions of ICU shift leaders were identified using an application of protocol analysis. In the next phase, a structured online question¬naire was developed to evaluate the immediate information needs of ICU shift leaders. A national survey was conducted in all Finnish, university-affiliated hospital ICUs for adults (n = 17). The questionnaire was sent to all charge nurses (n = 515) and physicians in charge (n = 223). Altogether, 257 charge nurses (50%) and 96 physicians in charge (43%) responded to the survey. The survey was also tested internationally in 16 Greek ICUs. From Greece, 50 charge nurses out of 240 (21%) responded to the survey. A think-aloud technique and protocol analysis were found to be applicable for the identification of the ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders. During one day shift leaders made over 200 ad hoc decisions. Ad hoc decisions were made horizontally, related to the whole intensive care process, and vertically, concerning single intensive care incidents. Most of the ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decisions were related to human resources and know-how, patient information and vital signs, and special treatments. Commonly, this ad hoc decision-making involved several multiprofessional decisions that constituted a bundle of immediate decisions and various information needs. Some of these immediate information needs were shared between the charge nurses and the physicians in charge. The majority of which concerned patient admission, the organisation and management of work, and staff allocation. In general, the information needs of charge nurses were more varied than those of physicians. It was found that many ad hoc deci-sions made by the physicians in charge produced several information needs for ICU charge nurses. This meant that before the task at hand was completed, various kinds of information was sought by the charge nurses to support the decision-making process. Most of the immediate information needs of charge nurses were related to the organisation and management of work and human resources, whereas the information needs of the physicians in charge mainly concerned direct patient care. Thus, information needs differ between professionals even if the goal of decision-making is the same. The results of the international survey confirmed these study results for charge nurses. Both in Finland and in Greece the information needs of charge nurses focused on the organisation and management of work and human resources. Many of the most crucial information needs of Finnish and Greek ICU charge nurses were common. In conclusion, it was found that ICU shift leaders make hundreds of ad hoc decisions during the course of a day related to the allocation of resources and organisation of patient care. The ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders is a complex multi-professional process, which requires a lot of immediate information. Real-time support for information related to patient admission, the organisation and man¬agement of work, and allocation of staff resources is especially needed. The preliminary information integration model can be applied when real-time enterprise resource planning systems are developed for intensive care daily management

Evidencing and Sharing Value with Decision Making Models in an Industrial Maintenance Network

The objective of this thesis is to concretize the potential benefits that the industrial maintenance case network could achieve through using the value-based life-cycle model and the flexible asset management model. It is also inspected what factors prevent value creation and sharing in the maintenance contract practices of the case network. This thesis is a case study which utilizes modelling. Four scenarios were developed to demonstrate value creation in the future. The data was partly provided by the collaborating company, partly gathered from public financial statement information. The results indicate that value has been created through the past maintenance of the collaborating company’s rod mill and that profitability of the collaborating company has been mostly on satisfactory level during the past few years. Potential value might be created by increasing the share of proactive maintenance of the rod mill in the future. Profitability of the network could be improved in the future through flexible asset management operations. The main obstacle for value creation and sharing seems to be the lack of sufficient trust between the network members.

The importance of package design to Japanese consumers: The role of visual and informational elements of package design in decision making

The importance of package design as a marketing tool is growing as the competition in retail environment increases. However, there is a lack of studies on how each element of package design affects consumer decisions in different countries. The objective of this thesis is to study the role of package design to Japanese consumers. The research was conducted through an experiment with a sample of 37 Japanese female participants. They were divided into two groups and were given different tasks: one group had to choose a chocolate for themselves, and the other for a group of friends. The participants were presented with 15 different Finnish chocolate boxes to choose from. The qualitative data was gathered through observation and semi-structured interviews. In addition, data from questionnaires was quantified and all the data was triangulated. The empirical results suggest that visual elements strongly affect the decision making of Japanese consumers. Image was the most important element which acted as both, a visual and an informational aspect in the experiment. Informational elements on the other hand have little effect, especially when the context is written in a foreign language. However, informational elements affected participants who were choosing chocolates for a group of friends. A unique finding was the importance of kawaii (cuteness) to Japanese consumers.