Diabetes in the young - a global view and worldwide estimates of numbers of children with type 1 diabetes

This paper describes the methodology, results and limitations of the 2013 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Atlas (6th edition) estimates of the worldwide numbers of prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in children (<15 years). The majority of relevant information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly diagnosed cases. Studies were graded on quality criteria and, if no information was available in the published literature, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Prevalence rates were then derived from these incidence rates and applied to United Nations 2012 Revision population estimates for 2013 for each country to obtain estimates of the number of prevalent cases. Data availability was highest for the countries in Europe (76%) and lowest for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa (8%). The prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 500,000 children aged under 15 years with type 1 diabetes worldwide, the largest numbers being in Europe (129,000) and North America (108,700). Countries with the highest estimated numbers of new cases annually were the United States (13,000), India (10,900) and Brazil (5000). Compared with the prevalence estimates made in previous editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, the numbers have increased in most of the IDF Regions, often reflecting the incidence rate increases that have been well-documented in many countries. Monogenic diabetes is increasingly being recognised among those with clinical features of type 1 or type 2 diabetes as genetic studies become available, but population-based data on incidence and prevalence show wide variation due to lack of standardisation in the studies. Similarly, studies on type 2 diabetes in childhood suggest increased incidence and prevalence in many countries, especially in Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities, but detailed population-based studies remain limited.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of forest. A case of study in notheastern Armenia

The forest has a crucial ecological role and the continuous forest loss can cause colossal effects on the environment. As Armenia is one of the low forest covered countries in the world, this problem is more critical. Continuous forest disturbances mainly caused by illegal logging started from the early 1990s had a huge damage on the forest ecosystem by decreasing the forest productivity and making more areas vulnerable to erosion. Another aspect of the Armenian forest is the lack of continuous monitoring and absence of accurate estimation of the level of cuts in some years. In order to have insight about the forest and the disturbances in the long period of time we used Landsat TM/ETM + images. Google Earth Engine JavaScript API was used, which is an online tool enabling the access and analysis of a great amount of satellite imagery. To overcome the data availability problem caused by the gap in the Landsat series in 1988- 1998, extensive cloud cover in the study area and the missing scan lines, we used pixel based compositing for the temporal window of leaf on vegetation (June-late September). Subsequently, pixel based linear regression analyses were performed. Vegetation indices derived from the 10 biannual composites for the years 1984-2014 were used for trend analysis. In order to derive the disturbances only in forests, forest cover layer was aggregated and the original composites were masked. It has been found, that around 23% of forests were disturbed during the study period.

Transparency in financial reporting by European Foundations

The increasing role of the European Foundations, urges for more transparency. The prevalent accounting frameworks in which they operate and report their activities are mostly based on national laws. This lack of harmonization, limits comparison between European foundations. Thus, this Work Project analyzes the current financial reporting by European foundations, and evaluates the similarities, differences and data availability between countries. The research provides evidence about little information available, deficiency in the financial reporting, within and between countries. The research recommends the need to ensure uniformity by providing a clear definition for public-benefit purpose, harmonization of laws and financial reporting.

Suivi des changements des utilisations/occupations du sol en milieu urbain par imagerie satellitale de résolution spatiale moyenne : le cas de la région métropolitaine de Montréal

De nos jours les cartes d’utilisation/occupation du sol (USOS) à une échelle régionale sont habituellement générées à partir d’images satellitales de résolution modérée (entre 10 m et 30 m). Le National Land Cover Database aux États-Unis et le programme CORINE (Coordination of information on the environment) Land Cover en Europe, tous deux fondés sur les images LANDSAT, en sont des exemples représentatifs. Cependant ces cartes deviennent rapidement obsolètes, spécialement en environnement dynamique comme les megacités et les territoires métropolitains. Pour nombre d’applications, une mise à jour de ces cartes sur une base annuelle est requise. Depuis 2007, le USGS donne accès gratuitement à des images LANDSAT ortho-rectifiées. Des images archivées (depuis 1984) et des images acquises récemment sont disponibles. Sans aucun doute, une telle disponibilité d’images stimulera la recherche sur des méthodes et techniques rapides et efficaces pour un monitoring continue des changements des USOS à partir d’images à résolution moyenne. Cette recherche visait à évaluer le potentiel de telles images satellitales de résolution moyenne pour obtenir de l’information sur les changements des USOS à une échelle régionale dans le cas de la Communauté Métropolitaine de Montréal (CMM), une métropole nord-américaine typique. Les études précédentes ont démontré que les résultats de détection automatique des changements dépendent de plusieurs facteurs tels : 1) les caractéristiques des images (résolution spatiale, bandes spectrales, etc.); 2) la méthode même utilisée pour la détection automatique des changements; et 3) la complexité du milieu étudié. Dans le cas du milieu étudié, à l’exception du centre-ville et des artères commerciales, les utilisations du sol (industriel, commercial, résidentiel, etc.) sont bien délimitées. Ainsi cette étude s’est concentrée aux autres facteurs pouvant affecter les résultats, nommément, les caractéristiques des images et les méthodes de détection des changements. Nous avons utilisé des images TM/ETM+ de LANDSAT à 30 m de résolution spatiale et avec six bandes spectrales ainsi que des images VNIR-ASTER à 15 m de résolution spatiale et avec trois bandes spectrales afin d’évaluer l’impact des caractéristiques des images sur les résultats de détection des changements. En ce qui a trait à la méthode de détection des changements, nous avons décidé de comparer deux types de techniques automatiques : (1) techniques fournissant des informations principalement sur la localisation des changements et (2)techniques fournissant des informations à la fois sur la localisation des changements et sur les types de changement (classes « de-à »). Les principales conclusions de cette recherche sont les suivantes : Les techniques de détection de changement telles les différences d’image ou l’analyse des vecteurs de changements appliqués aux images multi-temporelles LANDSAT fournissent une image exacte des lieux où un changement est survenu d’une façon rapide et efficace. Elles peuvent donc être intégrées dans un système de monitoring continu à des fins d’évaluation rapide du volume des changements. Les cartes des changements peuvent aussi servir de guide pour l’acquisition d’images de haute résolution spatiale si l’identification détaillée du type de changement est nécessaire. Les techniques de détection de changement telles l’analyse en composantes principales et la comparaison post-classification appliquées aux images multi-temporelles LANDSAT fournissent une image relativement exacte de classes “de-à” mais à un niveau thématique très général (par exemple, bâti à espace vert et vice-versa, boisés à sol nu et vice-versa, etc.). Les images ASTER-VNIR avec une meilleure résolution spatiale mais avec moins de bandes spectrales que LANDSAT n’offrent pas un niveau thématique plus détaillé (par exemple, boisés à espace commercial ou industriel). Les résultats indiquent que la recherche future sur la détection des changements en milieu urbain devrait se concentrer aux changements du couvert végétal puisque les images à résolution moyenne sont très sensibles aux changements de ce type de couvert. Les cartes indiquant la localisation et le type des changements du couvert végétal sont en soi très utiles pour des applications comme le monitoring environnemental ou l’hydrologie urbaine. Elles peuvent aussi servir comme des indicateurs des changements de l’utilisation du sol. De techniques telles l’analyse des vecteurs de changement ou les indices de végétation son employées à cette fin.

Mass Transport In The Equatorial Indian Ocean

In the equatorial oceans, the meridional currents are far less energetic than their zonal counterparts. The response of the Equatorial Indian Ocean to the seasonal reversals in the zonal wind field. is quite interesting and unique. A modest attempt, considering the shortcomings in the hydrographic data availability and distribution, is made to evaluate the variability in the zonal transport of mass. in_ both space and time. The peculiarities in its hydrological regime imposed upon by the seasonally varying winds is best appreciated when compared with the quasi permanent circulation characteristics of the Pacific and Atlanti'c.The major features of the tequatorial mass transport is outlined in the introductory chapter of this thesis for the Pacific and Atlantic Mass transport studies in the Indian Ocean, as can be seen from the earlier studies, gis“ the least known and understood, though could have captured the attention of both the experimentalist and the theoretician alike. owing to its complexity. Since in the Indian Ocean, the studies on the zonal mass transport are limited and are confined to the equator only, an attempt has been made to compute the mass transport extending from 5 N to 20 S.

Strategies towards evaluation beyond scientific impact

Various research fields, like organic agricultural research, are dedicated to solving real-world problems and contributing to sustainable development. Therefore, systems research and the application of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches are increasingly endorsed. However, research performance depends not only on self-conception, but also on framework conditions of the scientific system, which are not always of benefit to such research fields. Recently, science and its framework conditions have been under increasing scrutiny as regards their ability to serve societal benefit. This provides opportunities for (organic) agricultural research to engage in the development of a research system that will serve its needs. This article focuses on possible strategies for facilitating a balanced research evaluation that recognises scientific quality as well as societal relevance and applicability. These strategies are (a) to strengthen the general support for evaluation beyond scientific impact, and (b) to provide accessible data for such evaluations. Synergies of interest are found between open access movements and research communities focusing on global challenges and sustainability. As both are committed to increasing the societal benefit of science, they may support evaluation criteria such as knowledge production and dissemination tailored to societal needs, and the use of open access. Additional synergies exist between all those who scrutinise current research evaluation systems for their ability to serve scientific quality, which is also a precondition for societal benefit. Here, digital communication technologies provide opportunities to increase effectiveness, transparency, fairness and plurality in the dissemination of scientific results, quality assurance and reputation. Furthermore, funders may support transdisciplinary approaches and open access and improve data availability for evaluation beyond scientific impact. If they begin to use current research information systems that include societal impact data while reducing the requirements for narrative reports, documentation burdens on researchers may be relieved, with the funders themselves acting as data providers for researchers, institutions and tailored dissemination beyond academia.

Back from beyond the bid-ask spread: perspectives on liquidity

Research into the topic of liquidity has greatly benefited from the availability of data. Although bid-ask spreads were inaccessible to researchers, Roll (1984) provided a conceptual model that estimated the effective bid-ask prices from regular time series data, recorded on a daily or longer interval. Later data availability improved and researchers were able to address questions regarding the factors that influenced the spreads and the relationship between spreads and risk, return and liquidity. More recently transaction data have been used to measure the effective spread and researchers have been able to refine the concepts of liquidity to include the impact of transactions on price movements (Clayton and McKinnon, 2000) on a trade-by-trade analysis. This paper aims to use techniques that combine elements from all three approaches and, by studying US data over a relatively long time period, to throw light on earlier research as well as to reveal the changes in liquidity over the period controlling for extraneous factors such as market, age and size of REIT. It also reveals some comparable results for the UK market over the same period.

Suitability of pesticide risk indicators for less developed countries: a comparison

Pesticide risk indicators provide simple support in the assessment of environmental and health risks from pesticide use, and can therefore inform policies to foster a sustainable interaction of agriculture with the environment. For their relative simplicity, indicators may be particularly useful under conditions of limited data availability and resources, such as in Less Developed Countries (LDCs). However, indicator complexity can vary significantly, in particular between those that rely on an exposure–toxicity ratio (ETR) and those that do not. In addition, pesticide risk indicators are usually developed for Western contexts, which might cause incorrect estimation in LDCs. This study investigated the appropriateness of seven pesticide risk indicators for use in LDCs, with reference to smallholding agriculture in Colombia. Seven farm-level indicators, among which 3 relied on an ETR (POCER, EPRIP, PIRI) and 4 on a non-ETR approach (EIQ, PestScreen, OHRI, Dosemeci et al., 2002), were calculated and then compared by means of the Spearman rank correlation test. Indicators were also compared with respect to key indicator characteristics, i.e. user friendliness and ability to represent the system under study. The comparison of the indicators in terms of the total environmental risk suggests that the indicators not relying on an ETR approach cannot be used as a reliable proxy for more complex, i.e. ETR, indicators. ETR indicators, when user-friendly, show a comparative advantage over non-ETR in best combining the need for a relatively simple tool to be used in contexts of limited data availability and resources, and for a reliable estimation of environmental risk. Non-ETR indicators remain useful and accessible tools to discriminate between different pesticides prior to application. Concerning the human health risk, simple algorithms seem more appropriate for assessing human health risk in LDCs. However, further research on health risk indicators and their validation under LDC conditions is needed.

Assessing levels of uncertainty in recent temperature time series

We examine to what degree we can expect to obtain accurate temperature trends for the last two decades near the surface and in the lower troposphere. We compare temperatures obtained from surface observations and radiosondes as well as satellite-based measurements from the Microwave Soundings Units (MSU), which have been adjusted for orbital decay and non-linear instrument-body effects, and reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In regions with abundant conventional data coverage, where the MSU has no major influence on the reanalysis, temperature anomalies obtained from microwave sounders, radiosondes and from both reanalyses agree reasonably. Where coverage is insufficient, in particular over the tropical oceans, large differences are found between the MSU and either reanalysis. These differences apparently relate to changes in the satellite data availability and to differing satellite retrieval methodologies, to which both reanalyses are quite sensitive over the oceans. For NCEP, this results from the use of raw radiances directly incorporated into the analysis, which make the reanalysis sensitive to changes in the underlying algorithms, e.g. those introduced in August 1992. For ERA, the bias-correction of the one-dimensional variational analysis may introduce an error when the satellite relative to which the correction is calculated is biased itself or when radiances change on a time scale longer than a couple of months, e.g. due to orbit decay. ERA inhomogeneities are apparent in April 1985, October/November 1986 and April 1989. These dates can be identified with the replacements of satellites. It is possible that a negative bias in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used in the reanalyses may have been introduced over the period of the satellite record. This could have resulted from a decrease in the number of ship measurements, a concomitant increase in the importance of satellite-derived SSTs, and a likely cold bias in the latter. Alternately, a warm bias in SSTs could have been caused by an increase in the percentage of buoy measurements (relative to deeper ship intake measurements) in the tropical Pacific. No indications for uncorrected inhomogeneities of land surface temperatures could be found. Near-surface temperatures have biases in the boundary layer in both reanalyses, presumably due to the incorrect treatment of snow cover. The increase of near-surface compared to lower tropospheric temperatures in the last two decades may be due to a combination of several factors, including high-latitude near-surface winter warming due to an enhanced NAO and upper-tropospheric cooling due to stratospheric ozone decrease.

Entrepreneurial activity across European cities

The importance of entrepreneurship as a driving force in the economic development has been widely recognised. Respectively, a growing number of empirical studies have focused on explaining variation in entrepreneurial activity at various spatial levels with the majority of them taking either a cross-country perspective or looking at the inter-regional differences. More recent studies on entrepreneurship have shifted their focus to examining cross-city variation in entrepreneurship. However, overall, given limited city-level data availability, scarce work has been undertaken so far on cross-city entrepreneurship within the spatially oriented entrepreneurship research. Furthermore, to our best knowledge, no empirical studies exist on entrepreneurship in European cities and our paper aims to fill this gap

Geographical range margins of many taxonomic groups continue to shift polewards

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups.

Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Analytical modeling of interconnection networks in heterogeneous multi-cluster systems

In data-intensive distributed systems, replication is the most widely used approach to offer high data availability, low bandwidth consumption, increased fault-tolerance and improved scalability of the overall system. Replication-based systems implement replica control protocols that enforce a specified semantics of accessing the data. Also, the performance depends on a number of factors, the chief of which is the protocol used to maintain consistency among object replica. In this paper, we propose a new low-cost and high data availability protocol called the box-shaped grid structure for maintaining consistency of replicated data on networked distributed computing systems. We show that the proposed protocol provides high data availability, low communication costs, and increased fault-tolerance as compared to the baseline replica control protocols.