An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

The value of badger populations and control of tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales: A note

This note reports on the results of a choice experiment survey of 400 people in England and Wales, conducted to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population. The study was undertaken in the context of the possible need to reduce the badger population by culling to help control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. The study found that people were concerned about the problem of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, which was reflected in their willingness to pay to control the disease, and gave a relatively low value to changes in the size of the badger population (within limits). However, people did not like the idea of a policy that intentionally killed large numbers of badgers and had a relatively very high willingness to pay not to have such a policy.

Public values for badgers, bovine TB reduction and management strategies

This paper applies an attribute-based stated choice experiment approach to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population in England and Wales. The study was undertaken in the context of a rising incidence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle and the government's review of current bTB control policy. This review includes consideration of culling badgers to reduce bTB in cattle, since badgers are thought to be an important wildlife reservoir for the disease. The design of the CE involved four attributes (size of badger population, cattle slaughtered due to bTB, badger management strategy and household tax) at four levels with eight choice sets of two alternatives presented to respondents. Telephone interviews were undertaken with over 400 respondents, which elicited their attitudes and preferences concerning badgers, bTB in cattle and badger management strategies. The study estimated a willingness to pay of 0.10 pound per household per year per 100,000 badgers and 1.52 pound per household per year per 10,000 cattle slaughtered due to bTB which aggregated to 22 per badger and 3298 pound per bTB slaughtered animal for all households in England and Wales. Management strategy toward badgers had a very high valuation, highlighting the emotive issue of badger culling for respondents and the importance of government policy towards badgers.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.

The joint effects of larval density and C-14-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

1. Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2. Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of C-14-cypermethrin in a sediment-water test system for 67 days at 20 +/- 1 degreesC. 3. Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to C-14-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. C-14-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of C-14-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations.

Binaural prediction of speech intelligibility in reverberant rooms with multiple noise sources

When speech is in competition with interfering sources in rooms, monaural indicators of intelligibility fail to take account of the listener’s abilities to separate target speech from interfering sounds using the binaural system. In order to incorporate these segregation abilities and their susceptibility to reverberation, Lavandier and Culling [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 127, 387–399 (2010)] proposed a model which combines effects of better-ear listening and binaural unmasking. A computationally efficient version of this model is evaluated here under more realistic conditions that include head shadow, multiple stationary noise sources, and real-room acoustics. Three experiments are presented in which speech reception thresholds were measured in the presence of one to three interferers using real-room listening over headphones, simulated by convolving anechoic stimuli with binaural room impulse-responses measured with dummy-head transducers in five rooms. Without fitting any parameter of the model, there was close correspondence between measured and predicted differences in threshold across all tested conditions. The model’s components of better-ear listening and binaural unmasking were validated both in isolation and in combination. The computational efficiency of this prediction method allows the generation of complex “intelligibility maps” from room designs. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

Modelling of Johne's disease control options in beef cattle: a decision support approach

Johne's disease in cattle is a contagious wasting disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's infection is characterised by a long subclinical phase and can therefore go undetected for long periods of time during which substantial production losses can occur. The protracted nature of Johne's infection therefore presents a challenge for both veterinarians and farmers when discussing control options due to a paucity of information and limited test performance when screening for the disease. The objectives were to model Johne's control decisions in suckler beef cattle using a decision support approach, thus implying equal focus on ‘end user’ (veterinarian) participation whilst still focusing on the technical disease modelling aspects during the decision support model development. The model shows how Johne's disease is likely to affect a herd over time both in terms of physical and financial impacts. In addition, the model simulates the effect on production from two different Johne's control strategies; herd management measures and test and cull measures. The article also provides and discusses results from a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects on production from improving the currently available test performance. Output from running the model shows that a combination of management improvements to reduce routes of infection and testing and culling to remove infected and infectious animals is likely to be the least-cost control strategy.

Habitat manipulation in lowland rice-coconut cropping systems of the Philippines: an effective rodent pest management strategy?

BACKGROUND: Reduction of vegetation height is recommended as a management strategy for controlling rodent pests of rice in South-east Asia, but there are limited field data to assess its effectiveness. The breeding biology of the main pest species of rodent in the Philippines, Rattus tanezumi, suggests that habitat manipulation in irrigated rice–coconut cropping systems may be an effective strategy to limit the quality and availability of their nesting habitat. The authors imposed a replicated manipulation of vegetation cover in adjacent coconut groves during a single rice-cropping season, and added artificial nest sites to facilitate capture and culling of young. RESULTS: Three trapping sessions in four rice fields (two treatments, two controls) adjacent to coconut groves led to the capture of 176 R. tanezumi, 12Rattus exulans and seven Chrotomysmindorensis individuals. There was no significant difference in overall abundance between crop stages or between treatments, and there was no treatment effect on damage to tillers or rice yield. Only two R. tanezumi were caught at the artificial nest sites. CONCLUSION: Habitat manipulation to reduce the quality of R. tanezumi nesting habitat adjacent to rice fields is not effective as a lone rodent management tool in rice–coconut cropping systems.

Intraspecific variation in 16S rRNA gene of Mycoplasma synoviae determined by DNA sequencing

Mycoplasma synoviae (MS) is an important avian pathogen may cause both respiratory disease and joint inflammation synovitis in poultry, causing economic losses to the Brazilian poultry industry. The genotypic variation in 16S rRNA gene is unknown. Partial sequences of 16S rRNA gene of 19 strains of M. synoviae were sequenced and analyzed in order to obtain molecular characterization and evaluation of the genetic variability of strains from distinct Brazilian areas of poultry production. Different polymorphic patterns were observed. The number of polymorphic alterations in the studied strains ranged from 0 to 6. The nucleotide variations, including deletion, insertion and substitutions, ranged from 3 to 5. The genotypic diversity observed in this study may be explained by spontaneous mutations that may occur when a lineage remains in the same flock for long periods. The culling and reposition in poultry flocks may be responsible for the entry of new strains in different areas. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data

The rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upper-air temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003-2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere. Citation: Osprey, S., et al. (2009), Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05809, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036359.

The magnetized steel and scintillator calorimeters of the MINOS experiment

The Main Injector Neutrino Oscillation Search (MINOS) experiment uses an accelerator-produced neutrino beam to perform precision measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters in the ""atmospheric neutrino"" sector associated with muon neutrino disappearance. This long-baseline experiment measures neutrino interactions in Fermilab`s NuMI neutrino beam with a near detector at Fermilab and again 735 km downstream with a far detector in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in northern Minnesota. The two detectors are magnetized steel-scintillator tracking calorimeters. They are designed to be as similar as possible in order to ensure that differences in detector response have minimal impact on the comparisons of event rates, energy spectra and topologies that are essential to MINOS measurements of oscillation parameters. The design, construction, calibration and performance of the far and near detectors are described in this paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Análise das relações da curva de crescimento e eficiência produtiva de vacas da raça Holandesa

O objetivo neste trabalho foi analisar as relações entre parâmetros da curva de crescimento (peso à maturidade e taxa de maturação) e medidas da eficiência produtiva de 333 vacas da raça Holandesa nascidas de 1992 a 2002. Dados de idade ao primeiro parto, produção de leite e duração da primeira lactação, primeiro intervalo de partos e produção de leite por dia de intervalo de partos foram analisados por meio de um modelo linear generalizado com o efeito fixo de grupo contemporâneo (ano-estação de nascimento), os efeitos aleatórios de pai da vaca e erro e os efeitos lineares e quadráticos do peso à maturidade e da taxa de maturação. Nas análises de longevidade e de duração da vida útil, incluiu-se o efeito fixo de motivo de descarte da vaca. Houve efeitos linear e quadrático da taxa de maturação sobre a maioria das características, exceto o primeiro intervalo de partos e a produção de leite por dia de intervalo de partos. As estimativas das taxas de maturação ótimas variaram de 0,0896 a 0,1187 kg/kg de peso vivo/mês. O peso à maturidade influenciou a longevidade de forma linear e quadrática. A combinação ótima foi de 701 kg de peso à maturidade e 0,0934 kg/kg de peso vivo/mês de taxa de maturação. O peso à maturidade correlacionou-se de forma desfavorável com a duração da primeira lactação (-0,11). Coeficientes de correlação significativos foram obtidos entre taxa de maturação e idade ao primeiro parto (-0,22), produção de leite na primeira lactação (0,18), duração da primeira lactação (0,18) e longevidade (0,14), o que confirma a hipótese de que vacas com taxas de maturação mais rápidas apresentam maior eficiência produtiva.