937 resultados para crude oil volatility


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At head of title: Final: Environmental statement.

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Economic media inform on prices of three well established crude oil benchmarks: Brent, WTI and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these is however declining with their low output - motivating investigation of the pricing dynamics. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just following the general market trends. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality, geographical and organisational segments. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are good price indicators. WTI and Brent still lead the market, but they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter, which confirms the lack of dominant benchmark within the segment of medium quality crudes.

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The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

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Crude oil markets witness growing disparity between the quality of crudes supplied and demanded in the market. The market share of low-quality crudes is increasing due to the depletion of old fields and increasing demand. This is unnerving the practitioners and affecting the relevance of the traditional benchmark crudes due to the lack of lower quality benchmarks (Montepeque, 2005). In this article, we apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependence of 32 crudes in order to establish which crudes drive other prices and which ones simply follow general market trends. Our results indicate that some of the old benchmarks are still relevant while others can be disregarded. Our results also interestingly show that the low-quality Mediterranean Russian Urals crude, introduced in the late 1990s, has emerged recently as a significant driver of global prices. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

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Since the Exxon Valdez accident in 1987, renewed interest has come forth to better understand and predict the fate and transport of crude oil lost to marine environments. The short-term fate of an Arabian Crude oil was simulated in laboratory experiments using artificial seawater. The time-dependent changes in the rheological and chemical properties of the oil under the influence of natural weathering processes were characterized, including dispersion behavior of the oil under simulated ocean turbulence. Methodology included monitoring the changes in the chemical composition of the oil by Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GCMS), toxicity evaluations for the oil dispersions by Microtox analysis, and quantification of dispersed soluble aromatics by fluorescence spectrometry. Results for this oil show a sharp initial increase in viscosity, due to evaporative losses of lower molecular weight hydrocarbons, with the formation of stable water-in-oil emulsions occurring within one week. Toxicity evaluations indicate a decreased EC-50 value (higher toxicity) occurring after the oil has weathered eight hours, with maximum toxicity being observed after weathering seven days. Particle charge distributions, determined by electrophoretic techniques using a Coulter DELSA 440, reveal that an unstable oil dispersion exists within the size range of 1.5 to 2.5 um, with recombination processes being observed between sequential laser runs of a single sample.