Imperfection Insensitive Thin Shells

The buckling of axially compressed cylindrical shells and externally pressurized spherical shells is extremely sensitive to even very small geometric imperfections. In practice this issue is addressed by either using overly conservative knockdown factors, while keeping perfect axial or spherical symmetry, or adding closely and equally spaced stiffeners on shell surface. The influence of imperfection-sensitivity is mitigated, but the shells designed from these approaches are either too heavy or very expensive and are still sensitive to imperfections. Despite their drawbacks, these approaches have been used for more than half a century.

This thesis proposes a novel method to design imperfection-insensitive cylindrical shells subject to axial compression. Instead of following the classical paths, focused on axially symmetric or high-order rotationally symmetric cross-sections, the method in this thesis adopts optimal symmetry-breaking wavy cross-sections (wavy shells). The avoidance of imperfection sensitivity is achieved by searching with an evolutionary algorithm for smooth cross-sectional shapes that maximize the minimum among the buckling loads of geometrically perfect and imperfect wavy shells. It is found that the shells designed through this approach can achieve higher critical stresses and knockdown factors than any previously known monocoque cylindrical shells. It is also found that these shells have superior mass efficiency to almost all previously reported stiffened shells.

Experimental studies on a design of composite wavy shell obtained through the proposed method are presented in this thesis. A method of making composite wavy shells and a photogrametry technique of measuring full-field geometric imperfections have been developed. Numerical predictions based on the measured geometric imperfections match remarkably well with the experiments. Experimental results confirm that the wavy shells are not sensitive to imperfections and can carry axial compression with superior mass efficiency.

An efficient computational method for the buckling analysis of corrugated and stiffened cylindrical shells subject to axial compression has been developed in this thesis. This method modifies the traditional Bloch wave method based on the stiffness matrix method of rotationally periodic structures. A highly efficient algorithm has been developed to implement the modified Bloch wave method. This method is applied in buckling analyses of a series of corrugated composite cylindrical shells and a large-scale orthogonally stiffened aluminum cylindrical shell. Numerical examples show that the modified Bloch wave method can achieve very high accuracy and require much less computational time than linear and nonlinear analyses of detailed full finite element models.

This thesis presents parametric studies on a series of externally pressurized pseudo-spherical shells, i.e., polyhedral shells, including icosahedron, geodesic shells, and triambic icosahedra. Several optimization methods have been developed to further improve the performance of pseudo-spherical shells under external pressure. It has been shown that the buckling pressures of the shell designs obtained from the optimizations are much higher than the spherical shells and not sensitive to imperfections.

井间地震技术研究和应用

Cross well seismic technique is a new type of geophysical method, which observes the seismic wave of the geologic body by placing both the source and receiver in the wells. By applying this method, it averted the absorption to high-frequency component of seismic signal caused by low weathering layers, thus, an extremely high-resolution seismic signal can be acquired. And extremely fine image of cross well formations, structure, and reservoir can be achieved as well. An integrated research is conducted to the high-frequency S-wave and P-wave data and some other data to determine the small faults, small structure and resolving the issues concerning the thin bed and reservoir's connectivity, fluid distribution, steam injection and fracture. This method connects the high-resolution surface seismic, logging and reservoir engineering. In this paper, based on the E & P situation in the oilfield and the theory of geophysical exploration, a research is conducted on cross well seismic technology in general and its important issues in cross well seismic technology in particular. A technological series of integrated field acquisition, data processing and interpretation and its integrated application research were developed and this new method can be applied to oilfield development and optimizing oilfield development scheme. The contents and results in this paper are as listed follows: An overview was given on the status quo and development of the cross well seismic method and problems concerning the cross well seismic technology and the difference in cross well seismic technology between China and international levels; And an analysis and comparison are given on foreign-made field data acquisition systems for cross-well seismic and pointed out the pros and cons of the field systems manufactured by these two foreign companies and this is highly valuable to import foreign-made cross well seismic field acquisition system for China. After analyses were conducted to the geometry design and field data for the cross well seismic method, a common wave field time-depth curve equation was derived and three types of pipe waves were discovered for the first time. Then, a research was conducted on the mechanism for its generation. Based on the wave field separation theory for cross well seismic method, we believe that different type of wave fields in different gather domain has different attributes characteristics, multiple methods (for instance, F-K filtering and median filtering) were applied in eliminating and suppressing the cross well disturbances and successfully separated the upgoing and downgoing waves and a satisfactory result has been achieved. In the area of wave field numerical simulation for cross well seismic method, a analysis was conducted on conventional ray tracing method and its shortcomings and proposed a minimum travel time ray tracing method based on Feraiat theory in this paper. This method is not only has high-speed calculation, but also with no rays enter into "dead end" or "blinded spot" after numerous iterations and it is become more adequate for complex velocity model. This is first time that the travel time interpolation has been brought into consideration, a dynamic ray tracing method with shortest possible path has been developed for the first arrivals of any complex mediums, such as transmission, diffraction and refraction, etc and eliminated the limitation for only traveling from one node to another node and increases the calculation accuracy for minimum travel time and ray tracing path and derives solution and corresponding edge conditions to the fourth-order differential sonic wave equation. The final step is to calculate cross well seismic synthetics for given source and receivers from multiple geological bodies. Thus, real cross-well seismic wave field can be recognized through scientific means and provides important foundation to guide the cross well seismic field geometry designing. A velocity tomographic inversion of the least square conjugated gradient method was developed for cross well seismic velocity tomopgraphic inversion and a modification has been made to object function of the old high frequency ray tracing method and put forward a thin bed oriented model for finite frequency velocity tomographic inversion method. As the theory model and results demonstrates that the method is simple and effective and is very important in seismic ray tomographic imaging for the complex geological body. Based on the characteristics of the cross well seismic algorithm, a processing flow for cross well seismic data processing has been built and optimized and applied to the production, a good section of velocity tomopgrphic inversion and cross well reflection imaging has been acquired. The cross well seismic data is acquired from the depth domain and how to interprets the depth domain data and retrieve the attributes is a brand new subject. After research was conducted on synthetics and trace integration from depth domain for the cross well seismic data interpretation, first of all, a research was conducted on logging constraint wave impedance of cross well seismic data and initially set up cross well seismic data interpretation flows. After it applied and interpreted to the cross well seismic data and a good geological results has been achieved in velocity tomographic inversion and reflection depth imaging and a lot of difficult problems for oilfield development has been resolved. This powerful, new method is good for oilfield development scheme optimization and increasing EOR. Based on conventional reservoir geological model building from logging data, a new method is also discussed on constraining the accuracy of reservoir geological model by applying the high resolution cross well seismic data and it has applied to Fan 124 project and a good results has been achieved which it presents a bight future for the cross well seismic technology.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Outcomes and process in reading tutoring

Background: Large-scale randomised controlled trials are relatively rare in education. The present study approximates to, but is not exactly, a randomised controlled trial. It was an attempt to scale up previous small peer tutoring projects, while investing only modestly in continuing professional development for teachers.Purpose: A two-year study of peer tutoring in reading was undertaken in one local education authority in Scotland. The relative effectiveness of cross-age versus same-age tutoring, light versus intensive intervention, and reading versus reading and mathematics tutoring were investigated.Programme description (if relevant): The intervention was Paired Reading, a freely available cross-ability tutoring method applied to books of the pupils' choice but above the tutee's independent readability level. It involves Reading Together and Reading Alone, and switching from one to the other according to need.Sample: Eighty-seven primary schools of overall average socio-economic status, ability and gender in one council in Scotland. There were few ethnic minority students. Proportions of students with special needs were low. Children were eight and 10 years old as the intervention started. Macro-evaluation n = 3520. Micro-evaluation Year 1 15 schools n = 592, Year 2 a different 15 schools n = 591, compared with a comparison group of five schools n = 240.Design and methods: Almost all the primary schools in the local authority participated and were randomly allocated to condition. A macro-evaluation tested and retested over a two-year period using Performance Indicators in Primary Schools. A micro-evaluation tested and retested within each year using norm-referenced tests of reading comprehension. Macro-evaluation was with multi-level modelling, micro-evaluation with descriptive statistics and effect sizes, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA).Results: Macro-evaluation yielded significant pre-post gains in reading attainment for cross-age tutoring over both years. No other differences were significant. Micro-evaluation yielded pre-post changes in Year 1 (selected) and Year 2 (random) greater than controls, with no difference between same-age and cross-age tutoring. Light and intensive tutoring were equally effective. Tutoring reading and mathematics together was more effective than only tutoring reading. Lower socio-economic and lower reading ability students did better. Girls did better than boys. Regarding observed implementation quality, some factors were high and others low. Few implementation variables correlated with attainment gain.Conclusions: Paired Reading tutoring does lead to better reading attainment compared with students not participating. This is true in the long term (macro-evaluation) for cross-age tutoring, and in the short term (micro-evaluation) for both cross-age and same-age tutoring. Tutors and tutees benefited. Intensity had no effect but dual tutoring did have an effect. Low-socio-economic status, low-ability and female students did better. The results of the different forms of evaluation were indeed different. There are implications for practice and for future research. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Reciprocal relations across time between basic values and value-expressive behaviors: A longitudinal study among children

Tracing children’s values and value-expressive behavior over a sixth-month period, we examined stability and change of values and behavior and the reciprocal relations between them. Three hundred and ten sixth-grade students in Italy completed value and value-expressive behavior questionnaires three times in three-month intervals during the scholastic year. We assessed Schwartz's (1992) higher-order values of conservation, openness to change, self-enhancement, and self-transcendence, as well as their respective expressive behaviors. Reciprocal relations over time between values and behaviors were examined using a cross-lagged longitudinal design. Results showed that values and behaviors had reciprocal longitudinal effects on one another, after the stability of the variables was taken into account (i.e., values predicted change in behaviors, but also behaviors predicted change in values). Our findings also revealed that: (1) values were more stable over time than behaviors, and (2) the longitudinal effect of values on behaviors tended to be stronger than the longitudinal effect of behaviors on values. Findings are discussed in light of the recent developmental literature on value change.

A Longitudinal Examination of Bidirectional Associations between Subjective Sleep Characteristics and Psychosocial Functioning among University Students

A number of studies have found a significant link between sleep and psychosocial functioning among university students. A critical examination of this literature, however, indicates that one important gap within the literature is the need for longitudinal studies that specifically test for bidirectional associations between these two constructs. The main purpose of my dissertation was to address this gap by conducting three studies that examined bidirectional associations between sleep and psychosocial functioning among a sample of university students. Participants were 942 (71.5% female) undergraduate students enrolled at a Canadian university, who completed survey assessments annually for three consecutive years, beginning in their first year of university. In the first study, I assessed bidirectional associations between two sleep characteristics (sleep quality and sleep duration) and three psychosocial functioning variables (academics, friendship quality, and intrapersonal adjustment). Results based on cross-lagged models indicated a significant bidirectional association between sleep quality and intrapersonal adjustment, such that more sleep problems predicted more negative intrapersonal adjustment over time, and vice versa. Unidirectional associations indicated that both higher academic achievement and more positive friendship quality were significant predictors of less sleep problems over time. In the second study, in which I examined bidirectional associations between sleep and media use, results provided support only for unidirectional associations; such that more sleep problems predicted increases in both time spent watching television and time spent engaged in online social networking. In the third study of my dissertation, in which I examined social ties at university and sleep quality, results indicated a significant bidirectional association, such that more positive social ties predicted less sleep problems over time, and vice versa. Importantly, emotion regulation was a significant mediator of this association. Findings across the three studies, highlight the importance of determining the direction of effects between different sleep characteristics and various aspects of university students’ psychosocial functioning, as such findings have important implications for both methodology and practice. A better understanding of the nature of the associations between sleep and psychosocial functioning will equip students, parents and university administrators with the tools necessary to facilitate successful adjustment across the university years.

Finance and Growth : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries, 1960-1990

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth using cross-country and panel data regressions for 69 developing countries for the 1960-1990 period. The main results are : (i) financial development is a significant determinant of economic growth, as it has been shown in cross-sectional regressions; (ii) financial markets cease to exert any effect on real activity when the temporal dimension is introduced in the regressions. The paradox may be explained, in the case of developing countries, by the lack of an entrepreneurial private sector capable to transform the available funds into profitable projects; (iii) the effect of financial development on economic growth is channeled mainly through an increase in investment efficiency.

Fair Allocation of Production Externalities: Recent Results

We survey recent axiomatic results in the theory of cost-sharing. In this litterature, a method computes the individual cost shares assigned to the users of a facility for any profile of demands and any monotonic cost function. We discuss two theories taking radically different views of the asymmetries of the cost function. In the full responsibility theory, each agent is accountable for the part of the costs that can be unambiguously separated and attributed to her own demand. In the partial responsibility theory, the asymmetries of the cost function have no bearing on individual cost shares, only the differences in demand levels matter. We describe several invariance and monotonicity properties that reflect both normative and strategic concerns. We uncover a number of logical trade-offs between our axioms, and derive axiomatic characterizations of a handful of intuitive methods: in the full responsibility approach, the Shapley-Shubik, Aumann-Shapley, and subsidyfree serial methods, and in the partial responsibility approach, the cross-subsidizing serial method and the family of quasi-proportional methods.

FastAero – A Precorrected FFT – Fast Multipole Tree Steady and Unsteady Potential Flow Solver

In this paper a precorrected FFT-Fast Multipole Tree (pFFT-FMT) method for solving the potential flow around arbitrary three dimensional bodies is presented. The method takes advantage of the efficiency of the pFFT and FMT algorithms to facilitate more demanding computations such as automatic wake generation and hands-off steady and unsteady aerodynamic simulations. The velocity potential on the body surfaces and in the domain is determined using a pFFT Boundary Element Method (BEM) approach based on the Green’s Theorem Boundary Integral Equation. The vorticity trailing all lifting surfaces in the domain is represented using a Fast Multipole Tree, time advected, vortex participle method. Some simple steady state flow solutions are performed to demonstrate the basic capabilities of the solver. Although this paper focuses primarily on steady state solutions, it should be noted that this approach is designed to be a robust and efficient unsteady potential flow simulation tool, useful for rapid computational prototyping.

Quality of life and stimulus perception in patients' rehabilitated with complete denture

The objective of this study was to evaluate and correlate quality of life (QoL), and stimulus perception of complete denture users, before and after the insertion of new prostheses. We selected 60 patients using bimaxillary complete conventional dentures who needed to replace their prostheses. During anamnesis, we collected demographic data and applied the Oral Health Impact Profile for Edentulous Patients (OHIP-EDENT) questionnaire and stimulus perception questionnaire (PERCEPTION). Before installation of new prostheses, the patients responded to OHIP-EDENT questionnaire, and on the day of installation, they responded to PERCEPTION questionnaire. At the patients 3-month follow-up, we re-administered the OHIP-EDENT and PERCEPTION questionnaires. The Wilcoxon and MacNemar tests were used to compare patient responses between the time points analysed. Most of the OHIP-EDENT items showed a highly significant impact of the new prostheses on oral health (P = 0.003). The PERCEPTION questionnaire data indicated that the patients experienced significant improvements (P < 0.05) in terms of their sensations with the new prostheses. Cross-lagged data analysis did not show any causality between the OHIP-EDENT and PERCEPTION questionnaires (ZPF test, P = 0.772). We concluded that the treatment was effective with respect to the patients QoL and their adaptation to the new prostheses.

Flutter analysis including structural uncertainties

The common practice in industry is to perform flutter analyses considering the generalized stiffness and mass matrices obtained from finite element method (FEM) and aerodynamic generalized force matrices obtained from a panel method, as the doublet lattice method. These analyses are often reperformed if significant differences are found in structural frequencies and damping ratios determined from ground vibration tests compared to FEM. This unavoidable rework can result in a lengthy and costly process of analysis during the aircraft development. In this context, this paper presents an approach to perform flutter analysis including uncertainties in natural frequencies and damping ratios. The main goal is to assure the nominal system’s stability considering these modal parameters varying in a limited range. The aeroelastic system is written as an affine parameter model and the robust stability is verified solving a Lyapunov function through linear matrix inequalities and convex optimization

Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

Prospective effects of emotion regulation on emotional adjustment

Deficits in emotion-regulation skills have widely been shown to be associated with poor emotional adjustment. However, it is still unclear whether these deficits are a cause or a consequence of poor adjustment. The purpose of the present research was to clarify the reciprocal effects between these 2 concepts. In 2 studies (Ns = 446 and 635), self-reports of emotion regulation and emotional adjustment were assessed twice with a 2-week interval. Cross-lagged regression analyses demonstrated that self-reports of emotion regulation predicted subsequent adjustment, over and above the effects of previous adjustment, whereas emotional adjustment did not predict subsequent emotion regulation. Thus, a focus on emotion-regulation skills may be important in the prevention and treatment of affect-related mental health problems.

Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood

Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

Anger and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in crime victims: A longitudinal analysis

Among trauma-exposed individuals, severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms is strongly correlated with anger. The authors used 2 longitudinal data sets with 282 and 218 crime victims, respectively, to investigate the temporal sequence of anger and PTSD symptoms following the assault. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that PTSD symptoms predicted subsequent level of anger, but that anger did not predict subsequent PTSD symptoms. Testing alternative models (common factor model, unmeasured 3rd variable model) that might account for spuriousness of the relation strengthened confidence in the results of the cross-lagged analyses. Further analyses suggested that rumination mediates the effect of PTSD symptoms on anger.