Credit cycle identification: A Markov-switching application

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Information provision improvement with a geofencing event-bases system

Nowadays there is a big percentage of the population, specially young users, which are smartphone users and there is a lot of information to be provided within the applications, information provision should be done carefully and should be accurate, otherwise an overload of information will be produced, and the user will discard the app which is providing the information. Mobile devices are becoming smarter and provide many ways to filter information. However, there are alternatives to improve information provision from the side of the application. Some examples are, taking into account the local time, considering the battery level before doing an action and checking the user location to send personalized information attached to that location. SmartCampus and SmartCities are becoming a reality and they have more and more data integrated every day. With all this amount of data it is crucial to decide when and where is the user going to receive a notification with new information. Geofencing is a technique which allows applications to deliver information in a more useful way, in the right time and in the right place. It consists of geofences, physical regions delimited by boundaries, and devices that are eligible to receive the information assigned to the geofence. When devices cross one of these geofences an alert is pushed to the mobile device with the information.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Millennium BCP- The almond hill credit extension proposal

This Work Project is a case study on the credit lending process and loan pricing policy of Millennium bcp, one of the main Portuguese banks. The goal of the case study is to provide an opportunity to understand the above mentioned process and policy in a major bank and to explore the issues and interests at play when a relevant credit decision must be taken. I would like to thank Dr. José Miguel Pessanha without whom this project would not have been possible.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

The implications of mandatory low-cost fuel provision

This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

Tourism education in Ireland : an analysis of the provision of third level tourism education in Ireland focusing on the needs of the public, private and voluntary sectors

Tourism education in Ireland has witnessed a transformation within the last four decades since CERT introduced the first fundamentals of training in the 1960’s. An analysis of the provision of tourism education in Ireland, focusing on the needs of the public, private and voluntary sectors was the main focus of this study and concentrates mainly on third level provision of tourism education within the island of Ireland. The study examines the role of tourism education in Ireland, establishing any current or emerging trends in third level tourism provision. It identifies and analyses the main stakeholders in the public, private and voluntary sectors and investigates if any requirements exist in the provision of third level education. The multi-faceted nature of the tourism industry has resulted in the provision of a diverse range of educational courses. As a result of this diversity, a question hangs over the status of tourism as a professional discipline within itself. Other issues identified through this study are the over provision of tourism courses and the current and future disparity within tourism education. The qualitative nature of the research involved questioning of major stakeholders and educators who influence tourism education provision and developing an overview of the current status of tourism education provision in Ireland identifying the present needs of each sector. Finally several strategies are suggested which may enhance third level tourism education in the future.

Does the provision of full day care improve the quality of life for children and their parents

This study sought to explore and examine if the provision of full day care improves the quality of life for children and their parents. Owing to the effects of the Celtic Tiger, life in Ireland has changed considerably over the past five to ten years. Because of the booming economy there are now 60.8% of women employed in the workforce. This means many changes for children, parents and families. Findings in the literature review are based on international studies. The researcher utilised both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies for the study. She interviewed 31 respondents; 27 childcare managers; 3 politicians and the chairperson of a childcare committee. Furthermore, 325 questionnaires were completed in a survey by working parents in the statutory and voluntary sectors in and around Sligo town and in two childcare facilities in Letterkenny, Co. Donegal. Babies as young as 4 months are being cared for in childcare facilities from 6.45am until 6.pm daily, 5 days per week. Some children are spending up to 11 hours per day in childcare facilities. The study has not categorically concluded that full day care is either positive or negative for children. Childcare facilities are providing good quality childcare encompassing various services; however, 25 out of 27 childcare managers reported to the researcher that they would not leave their child in full day care. Parents are finding it difficult to manage work life balance. Health dominated quality of life issues. Two hundred and thirty five (235) parents reported being stressed. The study also found that 315 working parents feel that the government is not doing enough to support working parents. On a positive note, 241 parents said they are happy in general with the quality of life for them, their family and their children. In addition, the researcher has identified a number of recommendations for future changes in policy and further study.

On the provision of global public goods : experimental evidence on climate change mitigation issues

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011