Portuguese average cost of capital

The oldest Portuguese share index still being calculated is the BVL/PSI-General, one which started the daily series on 5/Jan/1988 with a base value of 1000 points. Everyday a single value is computed based on the closing prices of all the shares included in the sample. Also, all corporate events affecting the price of any share beyond market sentiment are taken into account through proper adjustments, either in the numerator or the denominator of the formula. However, for dates before January 1988, there is nothing comparable to this index since the two different series known either never disclosed the methodology adopted to calculate the index or followed solutions not compatible with the above index. The present paper explains the solutions adopted to replicate as closely as possible the methodology of the BVL-General index to the main market of the Lisbon Exchange for the period 1978 – 1987. This is the first estimate of the historical Equity Risk Premium in Portugal above short-term risk-free rate from the re-opening of the market following the Carnation Revolution (and the accompanying nationalizations), to the present. In showing a value of the same order of magnitude found in other countries, the paper invites further studies on the effects of political decisions such as privatizations and joining the European Union.

Determination of the most suitable oil pipeline route using GIS least cost path analysis

The Keystone XL has a big role for transforming Canadian oil to the USA. The function of the pipeline is decreasing the dependency of the American oil industry on other countries and it will help to limit external debt. The proposed pipeline seeks the most suitable route which cannot damage agricultural and natural water recourses such as the Ogallala Aquifer. Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the suggested path in this study got extremely high correct results that will help in the future to use the least cost analysis for similar studies. The route analysis contains different weighted overlay surfaces, each, was influenced by various criteria (slope, geology, population and land use). The resulted least cost path routes for each weighted overlay surface were compared with the original proposed pipeline and each displayed surface was more effective than the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.

Experimental and modeling studies on reverse electrodialysis for sustainable power generation

A potentially renewable and sustainable source of energy is the chemical energy associated with solvation of salts. Mixing of two aqueous streams with different saline concentrations is spontaneous and releases energy. The global theoretically obtainable power from salinity gradient energy due to World’s rivers discharge into the oceans has been estimated to be within the range of 1.4-2.6 TW. Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is one of the emerging, membrane-based, technologies for harvesting the salinity gradient energy. A common RED stack is composed by alternately-arranged cation- and anion-exchange membranes, stacked between two electrodes. The compartments between the membranes are alternately fed with concentrated (e.g., sea water) and dilute (e.g., river water) saline solutions. Migration of the respective counter-ions through the membranes leads to ionic current between the electrodes, where an appropriate redox pair converts the chemical salinity gradient energy into electrical energy. Given the importance of the need for new sources of energy for power generation, the present study aims at better understanding and solving current challenges, associated with the RED stack design, fluid dynamics, ionic mass transfer and long-term RED stack performance with natural saline solutions as feedwaters. Chronopotentiometry was used to determinate diffusion boundary layer (DBL) thickness from diffusion relaxation data and the flow entrance effects on mass transfer were found to avail a power generation increase in RED stacks. Increasing the linear flow velocity also leads to a decrease of DBL thickness but on the cost of a higher pressure drop. Pressure drop inside RED stacks was successfully simulated by the developed mathematical model, in which contribution of several pressure drops, that until now have not been considered, was included. The effect of each pressure drop on the RED stack performance was identified and rationalized and guidelines for planning and/or optimization of RED stacks were derived. The design of new profiled membranes, with a chevron corrugation structure, was proposed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The performance of the suggested corrugation geometry was compared with the already existing ones, as well as with the use of conductive and non-conductive spacers. According to the estimations, use of chevron structures grants the highest net power density values, at the best compromise between the mass transfer coefficient and the pressure drop values. Finally, long-term experiments with natural waters were performed, during which fouling was experienced. For the first time, 2D fluorescence spectroscopy was used to monitor RED stack performance, with a dedicated focus on following fouling on ion-exchange membrane surfaces. To extract relevant information from fluorescence spectra, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) was performed. Moreover, the information obtained was then used to predict net power density, stack electric resistance and pressure drop by multivariate statistical models based on projection to latent structures (PLS) modeling. The use in such models of 2D fluorescence data, containing hidden, but extractable by PARAFAC, information about fouling on membrane surfaces, considerably improved the models fitting to the experimental data.

The implications of mandatory low-cost fuel provision

This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.

Ferroelectric phase transitions studies in 0.5Ba(Zr0.2Ti0.8) O3-0.5(Ba0.7Ca0.3)TiO3 ceramics

The ferroelectric phase transitions in 0.5Ba(Zr0.2Ti0.8)O3-0.5(Ba0.7Ca0.3)TiO3 (BCZT 50/50) ceramics,fabricatedbyasolidstatereaction,werestudiedbyusing X-Ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and measuring electric polarization, dielectric permittivity and pyroelectric current. Xraydiffraction(XRD)confirmsthecoexistenceoftetragonal(T) andrhombohedral(R)phasesatroomtemperature.Thetemperature dependence of the Raman modes frequency reveals the existenceoftwophasetransitionscorrespondingtotherhombohedral – tetragonal, and tetragonal - cubic close to 30 and 100 °C, respectively. The temperature dependence of electric polarization,pyroelectriccurrent,anddielectricpermittivityfurther supports theferroelectric (tetragonal) toparaelectric (cubic) phasetransition.Moreover,thedielectricpermittivityrevealsthe diffuseness of the phase transition and is attributed to the compositional fluctuations of different polar micro-regions.

Cost Factors in Digital Projects: A Model Useful in Other Applications

Description of a costing model developed by digital production librarian to determine the cost to put an item into the Claremont Colleges Digital Library at the Claremont University Consortium. This case study includes variables such as material types and funding sources, data collection methods, and formulas and calculations for analysis. This model is useful for grant applications, cost allocations, and budgeting for digital project coordinators and digital library projects.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

On the cost of rent-seeking by government bureaucrats in a Real-Business-Cycle framework

This paper studies the wasteful e ffect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between rent-seeking behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill, which is taken to represent the rent component. In particular, public o fficials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. The rent-seeking extraction technology in the government administration is modeled as in Murphy et al. (1991) and incorporated in an otherwise standard Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) framework with public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970-2007. The main fi ndings are: (i) Due to the existence of a signi ficant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent rent-seeking, which in turn leads to signifi cant losses in terms of output; (ii) The measures for the rent-seeking cost obtained from the model for the major EU countries are highly-correlated to indices of bureaucratic ineffi ciency; (iii) Under the optimal scal policy regime,steady-state rent-seeking is smaller relative to the exogenous policy case, as the government chooses a higher public wage premium, but sets a much lower public employment, thus achieving a decrease in rent-seeking.

Tracking cost savings from competitive tendering in the short and long run

A major initiative of the Thatcher and Major Conservative administrations was that public sector ancillary and professional services provided by incumbent direct service organisations [DSOs] be put out to tender. Analyses of this initiative, in the UK and elsewhere, found costs were often reduced in the short run. However, few if any studies went beyond the first round of tendering. We analyze data collected over successive rounds of tendering for cleaning and catering services of Scottish hospitals in order to assess the long term consequences of this initiative. The experience of the two services was very different. Cost savings for cleaning services tended to increase with each additional round of tendering and became increasingly stable. In accordance with previous results in the literature, DSOs produced smaller cost reductions than private contractors: probably an inevitable consequence of the tendering process at the time. Cost savings from DSOs tended to disappear during the first round of tendering, but they appear to have been more permanent in successive rounds. Cost savings for catering, on the other hand, tended to be much smaller, and these were not sustained.

An empirical analysis of a merger between a network and low-cost airlines

We use a difference-in-difference estimator to examine the effects of a merger involving three airlines. The novelty lies in the examination of this operation in two distinct scenarios: (1) on routes where two low-cost carriers and (2) on routes where a network and one of the low-cost airlines had previously been competing. We report a reduction in frequencies but no substantial effect on prices in the first scenario, while in the second we report an increase in prices but no substantial effect on frequencies. These results may be attributed to the differences in passenger types flying on these routes.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

Diagnostic accuracy, effectiveness and cost for cognitive impairment and dementia screening of three short cognitive tests applicable to illiterates

BACKGROUND Illiteracy, a universal problem, limits the utilization of the most widely used short cognitive tests. Our objective was to assess and compare the effectiveness and cost for cognitive impairment (CI) and dementia (DEM) screening of three short cognitive tests applicable to illiterates. METHODS Phase III diagnostic test evaluation study was performed during one year in four Primary Care centers, prospectively including individuals with suspicion of CI or DEM. All underwent the Eurotest, Memory Alteration Test (M@T), and Phototest, applied in a balanced manner. Clinical, functional, and cognitive studies were independently performed in a blinded fashion in a Cognitive Behavioral Neurology Unit, and the gold standard diagnosis was established by consensus of expert neurologists on the basis of these results. Effectiveness of tests was assessed as the proportion of correct diagnoses (diagnostic accuracy [DA]) and the kappa index of concordance (k) with respect to gold standard diagnoses. Costs were based on public prices at the time and hospital accounts. RESULTS The study included 139 individuals: 47 with DEM, 36 with CI, and 56 without CI. No significant differences in effectiveness were found among the tests. For DEM screening: Eurotest (k = 0.71 [0.59-0.83], DA = 0.87 [0.80-0.92]), M@T (k = 0.72 [0.60-0.84], DA = 0.87 [0.80-0.92]), Phototest (k = 0.70 [0.57-0.82], DA = 0.86 [0.79-0.91]). For CI screening: Eurotest (k = 0.67 [0.55-0.79]; DA = 0.83 [0.76-0.89]), M@T (k = 0.52 [0.37-0.67]; DA = 0.80 [0.72-0.86]), Phototest (k = 0.59 [0.46-0.72]; DA = 0.79 [0.71-0.86]). There were no differences in the cost of DEM screening, but the cost of CI screening was significantly higher with M@T (330.7 ± 177.1 €, mean ± sd) than with Eurotest (294.1 ± 195.0 €) or Phototest (296.0 ± 196. 5 €). Application time was shorter with Phototest (2.8 ± 0.8 min) than with Eurotest (7.1 ± 1.8 min) or M@T (6.8 ± 2.2 min). CONCLUSIONS Eurotest, M@T, and Phototest are equally effective. Eurotest and Phototest are both less expensive options but Phototest is the most efficient, requiring the shortest application time.

Energy cost of glucose storage in human subjects during glucose-insulin infusions.

The effect of graded levels of hyperinsulinemia on energy expenditure, while euglycemia was maintained by glucose infusion, was examined in 22 healthy young male volunteers by using the euglycemic insulin clamp technique in combination with indirect calorimetry. Insulin was infused at five rates to achieve steady-state hyperinsulinemic plateaus of 62 +/- 4, 103 +/- 5, 170 +/- 10, 423 +/- 16, and 1,132 +/- 47 microU/ml. Total body glucose uptake during each of the five insulin clamp studies was 0.41, 0.50, 0.66, 0.74, and 0.77 g/min, respectively. Glucose storage (calculated from the difference between total body glucose uptake minus total glucose oxidation) was 0.25, 0.29, 0.43, 0.49, and 0.52 g/min for each group, respectively, and represented over 60-70% of total glucose uptake. The net increment in energy expenditure after intravenous glucose was 0.08, 0.10, 0.14, 0.17, and 0.23 kcal/min, respectively. Throughout the physiological and supraphysiological range of insulinemia, there was a significant relationship (r = 0.95, P less than 0.001) between the increment in energy expenditure and glucose storage, indicating an energy cost of 0.45 kcal/g glucose stored. However, at each level of hyperinsulinemia, the theoretical value for the energy cost of glucose storage (assuming that all of the glucose is stored in the form of glycogen) could account for only 45-63% of the actual increase in energy expenditure that was measured by indirect calorimetry. These results indicate that factors in addition to glucose storage as glycogen must be responsible for the increase in energy expenditure that accompanies glucose infusion.

All-Optical Label Stacking: Easing the Trade-offs Between Routing and Architecture Cost in All-Optical Packet Switching

All-optical label swapping (AOLS) forms a key technology towards the implementation of all-optical packet switching nodes (AOPS) for the future optical Internet. The capital expenditures of the deployment of AOLS increases with the size of the label spaces (i.e. the number of used labels), since a special optical device is needed for each recognized label on every node. Label space sizes are affected by the way in which demands are routed. For instance, while shortest-path routing leads to the usage of fewer labels but high link utilization, minimum interference routing leads to the opposite. This paper studies all-optical label stacking (AOLStack), which is an extension of the AOLS architecture. AOLStack aims at reducing label spaces while easing the compromise with link utilization. In this paper, an integer lineal program is proposed with the objective of analyzing the softening of the aforementioned trade-off due to AOLStack. Furthermore, a heuristic aiming at finding good solutions in polynomial-time is proposed as well. Simulation results show that AOLStack either a) reduces the label spaces with a low increase in the link utilization or, similarly, b) uses better the residual bandwidth to decrease the number of labels even more

Schistosoma mansoni in a low-prevalence area in Brazil: the importance of additional methods for the diagnosis of hard-to-detect individual carriers by low-cost immunological assays

Schistosomiasis diagnosis is based on the detection of eggs in the faeces, which is laborious and lacks sensitivity, especially for patients with a low parasite burden. Immunological assays for specific antibody detection are available, but they usually demonstrate low sensitivity and/or specificity. In this study, two simple immunological assays were evaluated for the detection of soluble Schistosoma mansoni adult worm preparation (SWAP) and egg-specific IgGs. These studies have not yet been evaluated for patients with low parasite burdens. Residents of an endemic area in Brazil donated sera and faecal samples for our study. The patients were initially diagnosed by a rigorous Kato-Katz analysis of 18 thick smears from four different stool samples. The ELISA-SWAP was successful for human diagnosis with 90% sensitivity and specificity, confirming the Kato-Katz diagnosis with nearly perfect agreement, as seen by the Kappa index (0.85). Although the ELISA-soluble S. mansoni egg antigen was 85% sensitive, it exhibited low specificity (80%; Kappa index: 0.75) and was more susceptible to cross-reactivity. We believe that immunological assays should be used in conjunction with Kato-Katz analysis as a supplementary tool for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis for patients with low infection burdens, which are usually hard to detect.