Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

The integration of online advertising: The effects of source expertise and certainty level of the message on consumer involvement and persuasion in the context of user-generated advertising

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of corporate social responsibility on consumer behavior: The role of profit-seeking and altruistic perceived motives

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Smart metering consumer behavior study in the Republic of Ireland: Further analyses on the consumers’ electricity consumptions and usage perceptions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Medium-short-term and repetition effects of advergames on children consumer behaviour

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Children consumer behaviour field lab: The Nestum consumer

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of the measurement unit of unit price on consumer preference and choice

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The dilution effect: The influence of expertise and abstraction on consumer's judgements of products

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Robots and humans as co-workers? The human-centred perspective of work with autonomous systems

The design of work organisation systems with automated equipment is facing new challenges and the emergence of new concepts. The social aspects that are related with new concepts on the complex work environments (CWE) are becoming more relevant for that design. The work with autonomous systems implies options in the design of workplaces. Especially that happens in such complex environments. The concepts of “agents”, “co-working” or “human-centred technical systems” reveal new dimensions related to human-computer interaction (HCI). With an increase in the number and complexity of those human-technology interfaces, the capacities of human intervention can become limited, originating further problems. The case of robotics is used to exemplify the issues related with automation in working environments and the emergence of new HCI approaches that would include social implications. We conclude that studies on technology assessment of industrial robotics and autonomous agents on manufacturing environment should also focus on the human involvement strategies in organisations. A needed participatory strategy implies a new approach to workplaces design. This means that the research focus must be on the relation between technology and social dimensions not as separate entities, but integrated in the design of an interaction system.

Which consumer capabilities are actually triggered by children in-store?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Sustainability and consumer responses: The effect of bad industry reputation and fit

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Heavy metal contamination in seafood and consumer exposure in the Gulf Cooperation Council

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Tecnologia e Segurança Alimentar

Online consumer behavior: The tablet shopper – A new kind of customer?

Tablet computers are on the rise and are increasingly superseding stationary computers in terms of modern online shopping. This paper therefore aims on understanding how tablet and website characteristics might impact online consumer behavior. The collected data resulted from focus groups and in-depth interviews conducted with a technology affine audience. It has shown that tablets indeed may have shifted shopping behavior from utilitarian towards rather recreational attributes. Discussions also revealed high customer expectations towards visited shopping websites and prevailing deficits. Thus, harnessing the concept of experiential flow is crucial. Compelling experiences are required to increase the duration of stay and consequently the likelihood of increased purchases.

Being ahead of its time the consumer resistance phenomenon: A comparative case study research

Double Degree.

Consumer perception of CSR in Portugal: The aftermath of the financial crisis

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature has largely neglected consumers’ perceptions in the debate regarding the role of CSR in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In that context, this study aims to test the possibility that consumers’ perceptions of CSR level, firm reputation and brand trust, might depend on the type of industry sector of a firm, the level of fit of an initiative or both. By conducting a survey on Portuguese consumers and running a two-way analysis of variance, it suggests that solely the type of industry sector has an effect on consumer perception and that consumers are less tolerable of controversial industries.