The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

An empirical investigation of the effects of rounding on the SPF probabilities of decine and output growth histograms

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

A note on growth and inflation

A simple exercise on growth and inflationary financing of public expenditures is presented in this note. In a parameterized overlapping generations mode1 where government expenses positivc1y affects the growth rate of human capital, steady state capital and output increase with inflation, reproducing the so called Tobin effect. For large inflation rates, however, government authorities cannot affect real variables and there are only nominal effects. It is also shown that the optimal policy implies some inflation but not growth maximization.

Endogenous time-dependent rules and inflation inertia: preliminary version

When policy rules are changed, the effect of nominal rigidities should be modelled through endogenous pricing rules. We endogenize Taylor (1979) type pricing rule to examine the output effects of monetary disinflations. We derive optimal fixed-price time-dependent rules in inflationary steady states and during disinflations. We also develop a methodology to aggregate individual pricing rules which vary through disinflation. This allows us to reevaluate the output costs of monetary disinflation, including aspects as the role of the initial leveI of inflation and the importance of the degree of credibility of the policy change.

Comparative study of LMI-based output feedback spr synthesis for plants with different numbers of inputs and outputs

New Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) conditions are proposed for the following problem, called Strictly Positive Real (SPR) synthesis: given a linear time-invariant plant, find a constant output feedback matrix Ko and a constant output tandem matrix F for the controlled system to be SPR. It is assumed that the plant has the number of outputs greater than the number of inputs. Some sufficient conditions for the solution of the problem are presented and compared. These results can be directly applied in the LMI-based design of Variable Structure Control (VSC) of uncertain plants. ©2008 IEEE.

Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia

Includes bibliography.

Tractor perfomance as a function of speed and seeder s tire inflation pressure

O desempenho de tratores agrícolas em condições de campo resulta da interação entre pneu e rodado, influenciado pela velocidade de deslocamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um trator agrícola sob diferentes pressões de inflação dos pneus da semeadora (518, 483, and 414kPa) e em duas marchas que proporcionaram velocidades de 3,0 e 6,0km h-1. O experimento foi realizado no campus de Jaboticabal da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi fatorial inteiramente casualizado (3x2), com quatro repetições. A força de tração foi influenciada pela marcha e pela potência exigida; no entanto, a pressão de inflação do pneu da semeadora não alterou esses parâmetros. Além disso, o consumo de combustível foi influenciado apenas pela marcha do trator. O consumo de energia foi maior com o aumento da velocidade, ocasionada pela mudança de marcha. A velocidade de deslocamento foi maior para a pressão de 518kPa, em razão da menor patinagem da semeadora promovida por essa pressão. A patinagem do trator não foi alterada pelos fatores testados.

Arterial O2 content and tension in regulation of cardiac output and leg blood flow during exercise in humans

[EN] A universal O2 sensor presumes that compensation for impaired O2 delivery is triggered by low O2 tension, but in humans, comparisons of compensatory responses to altered arterial O2 content (CaO2) or tension (PaO2) have not been reported. To directly compare cardiac output (QTOT) and leg blood flow (LBF) responses to a range of CaO2 and PaO2, seven healthy young men were studied during two-legged knee extension exercise with control hemoglobin concentration ([Hb] = 144.4 +/- 4 g/l) and at least 1 wk later after isovolemic hemodilution ([Hb] = 115 +/- 2 g/l). On each study day, subjects exercised twice at 30 W and on to voluntary exhaustion with an FIO2 of 0.21 or 0.11. The interventions resulted in two conditions with matched CaO2 but markedly different PaO2 (hypoxia and anemia) and two conditions with matched PaO2 and different CaO2 (hypoxia and anemia + hypoxia). PaO2 varied from 46 +/- 3 Torr in hypoxia to 95 +/- 3 Torr (range 37 to >100) in anemia (P < 0.001), yet LBF at exercise was nearly identical. However, as CaO2 dropped from 190 +/- 5 ml/l in control to 132 +/- 2 ml/l in anemia + hypoxia (P < 0.001), QTOT and LBF at 30 W rose to 12.8 +/- 0.8 and 7.2 +/- 0.3 l/min, respectively, values 23 and 47% above control (P < 0.01). Thus regulation of QTOT, LBF, and arterial O2 delivery to contracting intact human skeletal muscle is dependent for signaling primarily on CaO2, not PaO2. This finding suggests that factors related to CaO2 or [Hb] may play an important role in the regulation of blood flow during exercise in humans.

Comparison of calibrated and uncalibrated arterial pressure-based cardiac output monitors during orthotopic liver transplantation

Arterial pressure-based cardiac output monitors (APCOs) are increasingly used as alternatives to thermodilution. Validation of these evolving technologies in high-risk surgery is still ongoing. In liver transplantation, FloTrac-Vigileo (Edwards Lifesciences) has limited correlation with thermodilution, whereas LiDCO Plus (LiDCO Ltd.) has not been tested intraoperatively. Our goal was to directly compare the 2 proprietary APCO algorithms as alternatives to pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The cardiac index (CI) was measured simultaneously in 20 OLT patients at prospectively defined surgical landmarks with the LiDCO Plus monitor (CI(L)) and the FloTrac-Vigileo monitor (CI(V)). LiDCO Plus was calibrated according to the manufacturer's instructions. FloTrac-Vigileo did not require calibration. The reference CI was derived from pulmonary artery catheter intermittent thermodilution (CI(TD)). CI(V)-CI(TD) bias ranged from -1.38 (95% confidence interval = -2.02 to -0.75 L/minute/m(2), P = 0.02) to -2.51 L/minute/m(2) (95% confidence interval = -3.36 to -1.65 L/minute/m(2), P < 0.001), and CI(L)-CI(TD) bias ranged from -0.65 (95% confidence interval = -1.29 to -0.01 L/minute/m(2), P = 0.047) to -1.48 L/minute/m(2) (95% confidence interval = -2.37 to -0.60 L/minute/m(2), P < 0.01). For both APCOs, bias to CI(TD) was correlated with the systemic vascular resistance index, with a stronger dependence for FloTrac-Vigileo. The capability of the APCOs for tracking changes in CI(TD) was assessed with a 4-quadrant plot for directional changes and with receiver operating characteristic curves for specificity and sensitivity. The performance of both APCOs was poor in detecting increases and fair in detecting decreases in CI(TD). In conclusion, the calibrated and uncalibrated APCOs perform differently during OLT. Although the calibrated APCO is less influenced by changes in the systemic vascular resistance, neither device can be used interchangeably with thermodilution to monitor cardiac output during liver transplantation.

Corticospinal output and loss of force during motor fatigue

The objective of this study was to analyze central motor output changes in relation to contraction force during motor fatigue. The triple stimulation technique (TST, Magistris et al. in Brain 121(Pt 3):437-450, 1998) was used to quantify a central conduction index (CCI = amplitude ratio of central conduction response and peripheral nerve response, obtained simultaneously by the TST). The CCI removes effects of peripheral fatigue from the quantification. It allows a quantification of the percentage of the entire target muscle motor unit pool driven to discharge by a transcranial magnetic stimulus. Subjects (n = 23) performed repetitive maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) of abductor digiti minimi (duration 1 s, frequency 0.5 Hz) during 2 min. TST recordings were obtained every 15 s, using stimulation intensities sufficient to stimulate all cortical motor neurons (MNs) leading to the target muscle, and during voluntary contractions of 20% of the MVC to facilitate the responses. TST was also repetitively recorded during recovery. This basic exercise protocol was modified in a number of experiments to further characterize influences on CCI of motor fatigue (4 min exercise at 50% MVC; delayed fatigue recovery during local hemostasis, "stimulated exercise" by 20 Hz trains of 1 s duration at 0.5 Hz during 2 min). In addition, the cortical silent period was measured during the basic exercise protocol. Force fatigued to approximately 40% of MVC in all experiments and in all subjects. In all subjects, CCI decreased during exercise, but this decrease varied markedly between subjects. On average, CCI reductions preceded force reductions during exercise, and CCI recovery preceded force recovery. Exercising at 50% for 4 min reduced muscle force more markedly than CCI. Hemostasis induced by a cuff delayed muscle force recovery, but not CCI recovery. Stimulated exercise reduced force markedly, but CCI decreased only marginally. Summarized, force reduction and reduction of the CCI related poorly quantitatively and in time, and voluntary drive was particularly critical to reduce the CCI. The fatigue induced reduction of CCI may result from a central inhibitory phenomenon. Voluntary muscle activation is critical for the CCI reduction, suggesting a primarily supraspinal mechanism.