Teachers and organisational change (an analysis):an analysis

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Studentized U-quantile processes under dependence with applications to change-point analysis

Peer reviewed

Spam campaign detection, analysis, and formalization

Les courriels Spams (courriels indésirables ou pourriels) imposent des coûts annuels extrêmement lourds en termes de temps, d’espace de stockage et d’argent aux utilisateurs privés et aux entreprises. Afin de lutter efficacement contre le problème des spams, il ne suffit pas d’arrêter les messages de spam qui sont livrés à la boîte de réception de l’utilisateur. Il est obligatoire, soit d’essayer de trouver et de persécuter les spammeurs qui, généralement, se cachent derrière des réseaux complexes de dispositifs infectés, ou d’analyser le comportement des spammeurs afin de trouver des stratégies de défense appropriées. Cependant, une telle tâche est difficile en raison des techniques de camouflage, ce qui nécessite une analyse manuelle des spams corrélés pour trouver les spammeurs. Pour faciliter une telle analyse, qui doit être effectuée sur de grandes quantités des courriels non classés, nous proposons une méthodologie de regroupement catégorique, nommé CCTree, permettant de diviser un grand volume de spams en des campagnes, et ce, en se basant sur leur similarité structurale. Nous montrons l’efficacité et l’efficience de notre algorithme de clustering proposé par plusieurs expériences. Ensuite, une approche d’auto-apprentissage est proposée pour étiqueter les campagnes de spam en se basant sur le but des spammeur, par exemple, phishing. Les campagnes de spam marquées sont utilisées afin de former un classificateur, qui peut être appliqué dans la classification des nouveaux courriels de spam. En outre, les campagnes marquées, avec un ensemble de quatre autres critères de classement, sont ordonnées selon les priorités des enquêteurs. Finalement, une structure basée sur le semiring est proposée pour la représentation abstraite de CCTree. Le schéma abstrait de CCTree, nommé CCTree terme, est appliqué pour formaliser la parallélisation du CCTree. Grâce à un certain nombre d’analyses mathématiques et de résultats expérimentaux, nous montrons l’efficience et l’efficacité du cadre proposé.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Monitoring the condition of savanna riparian zones in Northern Australia using high spatial resolution imagery and a field based rapid assessment method

Government agencies responsible for riparian environments are assessing the combined utility of field survey and remote sensing for mapping and monitoring indicators of riparian zone condition. The objective of this work was to compare the Tropical Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition (TRARC) method to a satellite image based approach. TRARC was developed for rapid assessment of the environmental condition of savanna riparian zones. The comparison assessed mapping accuracy, representativeness of TRARC assessment, cost-effectiveness, and suitability for multi-temporal analysis. Two multi-spectral QuickBird images captured in 2004 and 2005 and coincident field data covering sections of the Daly River in the Northern Territory, Australia were used in this work. Both field and image data were processed to map riparian health indicators (RHIs) including percentage canopy cover, organic litter, canopy continuity, stream bank stability, and extent of tree clearing. Spectral vegetation indices, image segmentation and supervised classification were used to produce RHI maps. QuickBird image data were used to examine if the spatial distribution of TRARC transects provided a representative sample of ground based RHI measurements. Results showed that TRARC transects were required to cover at least 3% of the study area to obtain a representative sample. The mapping accuracy and costs of the image based approach were compared to those of the ground based TRARC approach. Results proved that TRARC was more cost-effective at smaller scales (1-100km), while image based assessment becomes more feasible at regional scales (100-1000km). Finally, the ability to use both the image and field based approaches for multi-temporal analysis of RHIs was assessed. Change detection analysis demonstrated that image data can provide detailed information on gradual change, while the TRARC method was only able to identify more gross scale changes. In conclusion, results from both methods were considered to complement each other if used at appropriate spatial scales.

Impact of protected forests on rural household fuel tree planting and deforestation: Chiro District, Ethiopia

This study aims at exploring the potential impact of forest protection intervention on rural households’ private fuel tree planting in Chiro district of eastern Ethiopia. The study results revealed a robust and significant positive impact of the intervention on farmers’ decisions to produce private household energy by growing fuel trees on their farm. As participation in private fuel tree planting is not random, the study confronts a methodological issue in investigating the causal effect of forest protection intervention on rural farm households’ private fuel tree planting through non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The protection intervention on average has increased fuel tree planting by 503 (580.6%) compared to open access areas and indirectly contributed to slowing down the loss of biodiversity in the area. Land cover/use is a dynamic phenomenon that changes with time and space due to anthropogenic pressure and development. Forest cover and land use changes in Chiro District, Ethiopia over a period of 40 years was studied using remotely sensed data. Multi temporal satellite data of Landsat was used to map and monitor forest cover and land use changes occurred during three point of time of 1972,1986 and 2012. A pixel base supervised image classification was used to map land use land cover classes for maps of both time set. The result of change detection analysis revealed that the area has shown a remarkable land cover/land use changes in general and forest cover change in particular. Specifically, the dense forest cover land declined from 235 ha in 1972 to 51 ha in 1986. However, government interventions in forest protection in 1989 have slowed down the drastic change of dense forest cover loss around the protected area through reclaiming 1,300 hectares of deforested land through reforestation program up to 2012.

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Remote Sensing Change Analysis Methodology to Support Traffic Monitoring Programs, 2003

The Federal Highway Administration mandates that states collect traffic count information at specified intervals to meet the needs of the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). A manual land use change detection method was employed to determine the effects of land use change on traffic for Black Hawk County, Iowa, from 1994 to 2002. Results from land use change detection could enable redirecting traffic count activities and related data management resources to areas that are experiencing the greatest changes in land use and related traffic volume. Including a manual land use change detection process in the Iowa Department of Transportation’s traffic count program has the potential to improve efficiency by focusing monitoring activities in areas more likely to experience significant increase in traffic.

Remote Sensing Change Analysis Methodology to Support Traffic Monitoring Programs: Phase 2, 2004

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) issued a report in July 2003, based on a sample study of the application of remote sensed image land use change detection to the methodology of traffic monitoring in Blackhawk County, Iowa. In summary, the results indicated a strong correlation and a statistically significant regression coefficient between the identification of built-up land use change areas from remote sensed data and corresponding changes in traffic patterns, expressed as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Based on these results, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) requested that CTRE expand the study area to five counties in the southwest quadrant of the state. These counties are scheduled for traffic counts in 2004, and the Iowa DOT desired the data to 1) evaluate the current methodology used to place the devices; 2) potentially influence the placement of traffic counting devices in areas of high built-up land use change; and 3) determine if opportunities exist to reduce the frequency and/or density of monitoring activity in lower trafficked rural areas of the state. This project is focused on the practical application of built-up land use change data for placement of traffic count data recording devices in five southwest Iowa counties.

Change-point detection in environmental time series based on the informational approach

In this study, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is applied in order to detect change-points in the time series of surface water quality variables. The application of change-point analysis allowed detecting change-points in both the mean and the variance in series under study. Time variations in environmental data are complex and they can hinder the identification of the so-called change-points when traditional models are applied to this type of problems. The assumptions of normality and uncorrelation are not present in some time series, and so, a simulation study is carried out in order to evaluate the methodology’s performance when applied to non-normal data and/or with time correlation.

Urban sprawl analysis and modeling in Asmara, Eritreia: Application of Geospatial Tools

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Analysis of urban land use and land cover changes: a case of study in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Automatic front-crawl temporal phase detection using adaptive filtering of inertial signals

This study introduces a novel approach for automatic temporal phase detection and inter-arm coordination estimation in front-crawl swimming using inertial measurement units (IMUs). We examined the validity of our method by comparison against a video-based system. Three waterproofed IMUs (composed of 3D accelerometer, 3D gyroscope) were placed on both forearms and the sacrum of the swimmer. We used two underwater video cameras in side and frontal views as our reference system. Two independent operators performed the video analysis. To test our methodology, seven well-trained swimmers performed three 300 m trials in a 50 m indoor pool. Each trial was in a different coordination mode quantified by the index of coordination. We detected different phases of the arm stroke by employing orientation estimation techniques and a new adaptive change detection algorithm on inertial signals. The difference of 0.2 +/- 3.9% between our estimation and video-based system in assessment of the index of coordination was comparable to experienced operators' difference (1.1 +/- 3.6%). The 95% limits of agreement of the difference between the two systems in estimation of the temporal phases were always less than 7.9% of the cycle duration. The inertial system offers an automatic easy-to-use system with timely feedback for the study of swimming.