A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

(Appendix) Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, and Mg/Ca ratios of foraminifera from ODP Hole 154-925A

To better understand the links between the carbon cycle and changes in past climate over tectonic timescales we need new geochemical proxy records of secular change in silicate weathering rates. A number of proxies are under development, but some of the most promising (e.g. palaeoseawater records of Li and Nd isotope change) can only be employed on such large samples of mono-specific foraminifera that application to the deep sea sediment core archive becomes highly problematic. "Dentoglobigerina" venezuelana presents a potentially attractive target for circumventing this problem because it is a typically large (> 355 ?m diameter), abundant and cosmopolitan planktic foraminifer that ranges from the early Oligocene to early Pliocene. Yet considerable taxonomic and ecological uncertainties associated with this taxon must first be addressed. Here, we assess the taxonomy, palaeoecology, and ontogeny of "D." venezuelana using stable isotope (oxygen and carbon) and Mg/Ca data measured in tests of late Oligocene to early Miocene age from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 925, on Ceara Rise, in the western equatorial Atlantic. To help constrain the depth habitat of "D." venezuelana relative to other species we report the stable isotope composition of selected planktic foraminifera species within Globigerina, Globigerinoides, Paragloborotalia and Catapsydrax. We define three morphotypes of "D." venezuelana based on the morphology of the final chamber and aperture architecture. We determine the trace element and stable isotope composition of each morphotype for different size fractions, to test the validity of pooling these morphotypes for the purposes of generating geochemical proxy datasets and to assess any ontogenetic variations in depth habitat. Our data indicate that "D." venezuelana maintains a lower thermocline depth habitat at Ceara Rise between 24 and 21 Ma. Comparing our results to published datasets we conclude that this lower thermocline depth ecology for the Oligo-Miocene is part of an Eocene-to-Pliocene evolution of depth habitat from surface to sub-thermocline for "D." venezuelana. Our size fraction data advocate the absence of photosymbionts in "D." venezuelana and suggest that juveniles calcify higher in the water column, descending into slightly deeper water during the later stages of its life cycle. Our morphotype data show that d18O and d13C variation between morphotypes is no greater than within-morphotype variability. This finding will permit future pooling of morphotypes in the generation of the "sample hungry" palaeoceanographic records.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungsänderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von Ökosystemen mit permanenter natürlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) führt häufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinbäuerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, häufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland Ökosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungsänderung im Borana Rangeland Südäthiopiens. Bevölkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einzäunung, veränderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilität führen zu raschen Veränderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenhänge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungsänderungen und Vegetationsveränderungen an fünf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufläche um 12% aus, überwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den übrigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufläche relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, während Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch „bare land“, vegetationslose Flächen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus führen, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales Höhenmodell überlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische Höhe als signifikante Erklärungsvariablen für die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsmaß (R²=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erklärungsvariablen für die Richtung der räumlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergröße und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer Höhe zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 müNN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggröße (>3ha). Die Analyse der phänologischen Entwicklung von Feldfrüchten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begrünung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu können. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Auflösung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten führte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fläche eines Pixels beinhaltete häufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeinträchtigte. Für die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems für die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus wären höher auflösende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinräumig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und natürlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen für Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung könnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

Water quality trading: credit stacking and ancillary benefits

Ecosystems can provide many services. Wetlands, for example, can help mitigate water pollution from point sources as well as non-point sources, serve as habitat for wildlife, sequester carbon and serve as a place for recreation. Studies have found that these services can have substantial value to society. The sale of ecosystem credits has been found to be a possible way to finance construction investments in wetlands and easements to farmers to take their land out of production. At the same time, selling one ecosystem service credit may not always be enough to justify the investment. Traditionally market participants have only been allowed to sell a single credit from one piece of land, but recently there have been discussions about the possibility of selling more than one credit from a piece of land because it potentially could lead to more efficient ecosystem service provision. Selling multiple credits is sometimes referred to as credit stacking. This paper is an empirical study of the potential for credit stacking applied to the services provided by wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, specifically nitrogen, phosphorus and wildlife credits. In the setting of our study where costs are discrete rather than continuous we found that wetlands are a cost-effective way to reduce the nitrogen loads from wastewater treatment plants and that stacking nitrogen, phosphorus and wildlife credits may improve social welfare while leading to a higher level of ecosystem services. However, for credit stacking to be welfare improving we found that there needs to be a substantial demand for the credit that covers the majority of the investment in wetlands, while the credit aggregator has a choice between what ecosystem projects to undertake. If the credit that covers the majority of investment is sold first and is the sole basis of the investment decision and the objective is to improve welfare, a sequential implementation of ecosystem credits is not recommended; it would not lead to an increase in the total amount of ecosystem services provided though it would increase profit for the credit producer.

Carbon gold rush and carbon cowboys: a new chapter in green mythology?

Individual and collective efforts to mitigate climate change in the form of carbon offsetting and emissions trading schemes have recently become the focus of much media attention. In this paper we explore a subset of the UK national press coverage centered on such schemes. The articles, selected from general as well as specialized business and finance newspapers, make use of gold rush, Wild West and cowboy imagery which is rooted in deeply entrenched myths and metaphors and allows readers to make sense of very complex environmental, political, ethical, and financial issues associated with carbon mitigation. They make what appears complicated and unfamiliar, namely carbon trading and offsetting, seem less complex and more familiar. A critical discussion of this type of imagery is necessary in order to uncover and question tacit assumptions and connotations which are built into it and which might otherwise go unnoticed and unchallenged in environmental communication.

Graphene And Carbon Nanotube Nanocomposite For Gene Transfection.

Graphene and carbon nanotube nanocomposite (GCN) was synthesised and applied in gene transfection of pIRES plasmid conjugated with green fluorescent protein (GFP) in NIH-3T3 and NG97 cell lines. The tips of the multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were exfoliated by oxygen plasma etching, which is also known to attach oxygen content groups on the MWCNT surfaces, changing their hydrophobicity. The nanocomposite was characterised by high resolution scanning electron microscopy; energy-dispersive X-ray, Fourier transform infrared and Raman spectroscopies, as well as zeta potential and particle size analyses using dynamic light scattering. BET adsorption isotherms showed the GCN to have an effective surface area of 38.5m(2)/g. The GCN and pIRES plasmid conjugated with the GFP gene, forming π-stacking when dispersed in water by magnetic stirring, resulting in a helical wrap. The measured zeta potential confirmed that the plasmid was connected to the nanocomposite. The NIH-3T3 and NG97 cell lines could phagocytize this wrap. The gene transfection was characterised by fluorescent protein produced in the cells and pictured by fluorescent microscopy. Before application, we studied GCN cell viability in NIH-3T3 and NG97 line cells using both MTT and Neutral Red uptake assays. Our results suggest that GCN has moderate stability behaviour as colloid solution and has great potential as a gene carrier agent in non-viral based therapy, with low cytotoxicity and good transfection efficiency.

Carbon Nanoparticles For Gene Transfection In Eukaryotic Cell Lines.

For the first time, oxygen terminated cellulose carbon nanoparticles (CCN) was synthesised and applied in gene transfection of pIRES plasmid. The CCN was prepared from catalytic of polyaniline by chemical vapour deposition techniques. This plasmid contains one gene that encodes the green fluorescent protein (GFP) in eukaryotic cells, making them fluorescent. This new nanomaterial and pIRES plasmid formed π-stacking when dispersed in water by magnetic stirring. The frequencies shift in zeta potential confirmed the plasmid strongly connects to the nanomaterial. In vitro tests found that this conjugation was phagocytised by NG97, NIH-3T3 and A549 cell lines making them fluorescent, which was visualised by fluorescent microscopy. Before the transfection test, we studied CCN in cell viability. Both MTT and Neutral Red uptake tests were carried out using NG97, NIH-3T3 and A549 cell lines. Further, we use metabolomics to verify if small amounts of nanomaterial would be enough to cause some cellular damage in NG97 cells. We showed two mechanisms of action by CCN-DNA complex, producing an exogenous protein by the transfected cell and metabolomic changes that contributed by better understanding of glioblastoma, being the major finding of this work. Our results suggested that this nanomaterial has great potential as a gene carrier agent in non-viral based therapy, with low cytotoxicity, good transfection efficiency, and low cell damage in small amounts of nanomaterials in metabolomic tests.

A Highly Improved Method For Sensitive Determination Of Amitriptyline In Pharmaceutical Formulations Using An Unmodified Carbon Nanotube Electrode In The Presence Of Sulfuric Acid.

The present paper describes a novel, simple and reliable differential pulse voltammetric method for determining amitriptyline (AMT) in pharmaceutical formulations. It has been described for many authors that this antidepressant is electrochemically inactive at carbon electrodes. However, the procedure proposed herein consisted in electrochemically oxidizing AMT at an unmodified carbon nanotube paste electrode in the presence of 0.1 mol L(-1) sulfuric acid used as electrolyte. At such concentration, the acid facilitated the AMT electroxidation through one-electron transfer at 1.33 V vs. Ag/AgCl, as observed by the augmentation of peak current. Concerning optimized conditions (modulation time 5 ms, scan rate 90 mV s(-1), and pulse amplitude 120 mV) a linear calibration curve was constructed in the range of 0.0-30.0 μmol L(-1), with a correlation coefficient of 0.9991 and a limit of detection of 1.61 μmol L(-1). The procedure was successfully validated for intra- and inter-day precision and accuracy. Moreover, its feasibility was assessed through analysis of commercial pharmaceutical formulations and it has been compared to the UV-vis spectrophotometric method used as standard analytical technique recommended by the Brazilian Pharmacopoeia.

One-dimensional Silicon And Germanium Nanostructures With No Carbon Analogues.

In this work we report new silicon and germanium tubular nanostructures with no corresponding stable carbon analogues. The electronic and mechanical properties of these new tubes were investigated through ab initio methods. Our results show that these structures have lower energy than their corresponding nanoribbon structures and are stable up to high temperatures (500 and 1000 K, for silicon and germanium tubes, respectively). Both tubes are semiconducting with small indirect band gaps, which can be significantly altered by both compressive and tensile strains. Large bandgap variations of almost 50% were observed for strain rates as small as 3%, suggesting their possible applications in sensor devices. They also present high Young's modulus values (0.25 and 0.15 TPa, respectively). TEM images were simulated to help in the identification of these new structures.

Evaluation Of The Cytotoxicity And Phototoxicity Of Caryocar Brasiliense Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Extract.

Caryocar brasiliense Camb (Pequi) is a typical Brazilian Cerrado fruit tree. Its fruit is used as a vitamin source for culinary purposes and as a source of oil for the manufacture of cosmetics. C. brasiliense supercritical CO2 extracts exhibit antimicrobial activity against the bacteria Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Staphylococcus aureus and also possess antioxidant activity. This study was designed to evaluate the in vitro cytotoxicity and phototoxicity of the supercritical CO2 extract obtained from the leaves of this species. In vitro cytotoxicity and phototoxicity of C. brasiliense supercritical CO2 extracts were assessed using a tetrazolium-based colorimetric assay (XTT) and Neutral Red methods. We found that the C. brasiliense (Pequi) extract obtained by supercritical CO2 extraction did not present cytotoxic and phototoxic hazards. This finding suggests that the extract may be useful for the development of cosmetic and/or pharmaceutical products.

Brazilian Natural Fiber (jute) As Raw Material For Activated Carbon Production.

Jute fiber is the second most common natural cellulose fiber worldwide, especially in recent years, due to its excellent physical, chemical and structural properties. The objective of this paper was to investigate: the thermal degradation of in natura jute fiber, and the production and characterization of the generated activated carbon. The production consisted of carbonization of the jute fiber and activation with steam. During the activation step the amorphous carbon produced in the initial carbonization step reacted with oxidizing gas, forming new pores and opening closed pores, which enhanced the adsorptive capacity of the activated carbon. N2 gas adsorption at 77K was used in order to evaluate the effect of the carbonization and activation steps. The results of the adsorption indicate the possibility of producing a porous material with a combination of microporous and mesoporous structure, depending on the parameters used in the processes, with resulting specific surface area around 470 m2.g-1. The thermal analysis indicates that above 600°C there is no significant mass loss.

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Extraction Of Capsaicinoids From Malagueta Pepper (capsicum Frutescens L.) Assisted By Ultrasound.

Extracts from malagueta pepper (Capsicum frutescens L.) were obtained using supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) assisted by ultrasound, with carbon dioxide as solvent at 15MPa and 40°C. The SFE global yield increased up to 77% when ultrasound waves were applied, and the best condition of ultrasound-assisted extraction was ultrasound power of 360W applied during 60min. Four capsaicinoids were identified in the extracts and quantified by high performance liquid chromatography. The use of ultrasonic waves did not influence significantly the capsaicinoid profiles and the phenolic content of the extracts. However, ultrasound has enhanced the SFE rate. A model based on the broken and intact cell concept was adequate to represent the extraction kinetics and estimate the mass transfer coefficients, which were increased with ultrasound. Images obtained by field emission scanning electron microscopy showed that the action of ultrasonic waves did not cause cracks on the cell wall surface. On the other hand, ultrasound promoted disturbances in the vegetable matrix, leading to the release of extractable material on the solid surface. The effects of ultrasound were more significant on SFE from larger solid particles.

Analysis Of Cellular Adhesion On Superhydrophobic And Superhydrophilic Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotube Scaffolds.

We analyzed GFP cells after 24h cultivated on superhydrophilic vertically aligned carbon nanotube scaffolds. We produced two different densities of VACNT scaffolds on Ti using Ni or Fe catalysts. A simple and fast oxygen plasma treatment promoted the superhydrophilicity of them. We used five different substrates, such as: as-grown VACNT produced using Ni as catalyst (Ni), as-grown VACNT produced using Fe as catalyst (Fe), VACNT-O produced using Ni as catalyst (NiO), VACNT-O produced using Fe as catalyst (FeO) and Ti (control). The 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole reagent nuclei stained the adherent cells cultivated on five different analyzed scaffolds. We used fluorescence microscopy for image collect, ImageJ® to count adhered cell and GraphPad Prism 5® for statistical analysis. We demonstrated in crescent order: Fe, Ni, NiO, FeO and Ti scaffolds that had an improved cellular adhesion. Oxygen treatment associated to high VACNT density (group FeO) presented significantly superior cell adhesion up to 24h. However, they do not show significant differences compared with Ti substrates (control). We demonstrated that all the analyzed substrates were nontoxic. Also, we proposed that the density and hydrophilicity influenced the cell adhesion behavior.

Long-term Decline Of The Amazon Carbon Sink.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.