985 resultados para capture-recapture models


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Capture/recapture studies significantly increase our knowledge of the natural history of anuran amphibians. Many different methods have been employed in these studies, but a number of new techniques still require experimental validation. During two reproductive seasons in a Cerrado remnant in southeastern Brazil, we investigated the movement patterns and habitat use of the pepper frog, Leptodactylus labyrinthicus, using a spool-and-line device. This low-cost device did not appear to interfere with the activities of the frogs and allowed for constant monitoring, showing precise routes of movement and great predictability of relocations. Both sexes were active at night. During the day, males and females made use of retreat sites under vegetation or in burrows constructed by small- and medium-sized mammals. Males and females did not use standardized routes; there were no significant differences between their movements, and movements were not correlated with body size or environmental conditions. Individuals are able to move further than 100 m per day, a characteristic that may enable this species to colonize or recolonize open areas.

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Pós-graduação em Ciência Animal - FMVA

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We propose a stage-structured integrodifference model for blowflies' growth and dispersion taking into account the density dependence of fertility and survival rates and the non-overlap of generations. We assume a discrete-time, stage-structured, model. The spatial dynamics is introduced by means of a redistribution kernel. We treat one and two dimensional cases, the latter on the semi-plane, with a reflexive boundary. We analytically show that the upper bound for the invasion front speed is the same as in the one-dimensional case. Using laboratory data for fertility and survival parameters and dispersal data of a single generation from a capture-recapture experiment in South Africa, we obtain an estimate for the velocity of invasion of blowflies of the species Chrysomya albiceps. This model predicts a speed of invasion which was compared to actual observational data for the invasion of the focal species in the Neotropics. Good agreement was found between model and observations.

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Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females) and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

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SummaryThe present thesis deals with the choosing of habitats and species structures of invertebrate populations in urban areas. The main emphasis is focused on the group of saltatoria. Samplings by stationary traps and also by net-catching were carried out from 1993 to 1997. The survey extended over the whole city area of Mainz, Germany, as well as several spots in the area of Frankfurt upon Main. Shifting calcerous sands received special consideration. For a better distinction of the surveying area, three different zones were established, 'Relicts of natural landscape', 'Traditional worked rural landscape' and 'Urban environment'. Partly significant differences in species and individual abundance between the zones showed the influence of the different cultivation on the fauna. To investigate population size and -structure as well as migration and habitat preference - especially in urban areas - capture-recapture experiments were performed on the two species Oedipoda caerulescens L. and Sphingonotus caerulans L. in 1998. Large secondary habitats, such as train stations, are getting more and more important for the survival of the highly endangered S. caerulans. Another centre of attention was the structure of invertebrate populations on class level. The results of the investigation show, that the importance of urban environment for the conservation of species and also nature has been highly underestimated so far.ZusammenfassungDie vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Habitatwahl und Artenzusammensetzung von Arthropodenpopulationen im besiedelten Bereich. Der Schwerpunkt lag auf der Gruppe der Saltatoria. Über mehrere Jahre (1993-1996) wurden Fänge mit stationären Fallen sowie Kescherfänge durchgeführt. Das Untersuchungsgebiet umfaßte in erster Linie das Stadtgebiet von Mainz, darüber hinaus wurden einzelne Standorte in Frankfurt/M. und Umgebung untersucht. Ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchungen lag auf Kalkflugsanddünen, besonders Restflächen im besiedelten Bereich. Sekundäre Sandstandorte oder vergleichbare anthropogen entstandene Böden wurden ebenfalls beprobt Das Stadtgebiet wurde aufgrund besserer Unterscheidung in drei Zonen aufgeteilt, die 'Naturlandschaftsrelikte', die 'Zone der Alten Kulturlandschaft' und die 'Urbane Landschaft'. Größtenteils signifikante Unterschiede in der Arten- und Individuenanzahl zwischen den Zonen zeigen den bedeutenden Einfluß der unterschiedlichen Bearbeitung und Kultivierung auf die Fauna. An den beiden Spezies Oedipoda caerulescens L. und Sphingonotus caerulans L. wurden Fang-Wiederfangexperimente zur Abschätzung der Populationsgröße, -struktur, Habitatwahl sowie Migration durchgeführt. Besonders für die stark gefährdete S. caerulans stellte sich die enorme Bedeutung von großflächigen Sekundärhabitaten im besiedelten Bereich, wie sie Bahnhöfe darstellen, heraus. Der zweite Schwerpunkt lag auf der Struktur von Invertebratenpopulationen im besiedelten Bereich. Sie wurden auf Ordnungsniveau erfaßt. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Bedeutung des besiedelten Bereiches für den Arten- und Biotopschutz bisher weit unterschätzt wurde.

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Ziel der Arbeit war die Quantifizierung einer Reihe von Lebenszyklusmerkmalen der beiden tropischen Grasmückenarten Sylvia boehmi und S. lugens (Aves: Sylviidae; frühere Gattung Parisoma). 13 Brutpaare beider Arten wurden von 2000 bis 2002 in Kenia beobachtet. Die Daten wurden mit multivariater Statistik und multistate mark-recapture Modellen ausgewertet. Die Lebenszyklusmerkmale der beiden untersuchten Sylvia Arten sind im Vergleich zu den temperaten Sylvia-Arten gekennzeichnet durch kleine Gelege von zwei Eiern, lange Inkubationsperioden (S. boehmi (b.) 15.0 Tage, S. lugens (l.) 14.5 Tage), lange Nestlingsperioden (b. 12.9 Tage, l. 16.0 Tage), und niedrige Nesterfolgsraten (b. 19.4%, l. 33.2%). Der Zeitraum vom Ausfliegen der Jungen bis zu ihrer Unabhängigkeit war mit 58.5 Tagen bei S. boehmi und 37.5 Tagen bei S. lugens vergleichsweise lang und die Überlebensrate der flüggen Jungen in dieser Zeit war relativ hoch (b. 69.2%, l. 55.4%). Die jährliche Überlebensrate der brütenden adulten Tiere betrug bei S. boehmi 71.2% und bei S. lugens 57.2%. Die Saisonalität des Habitats, bedingt durch Regen- und Trockenzeiten, hatte keinen Einfluss auf die monatliche Überlebensrate im Laufe eines Jahres. Trotz hoher Nestprädationsraten gab es keinen klaren Zusammenhang zwischen Prädation und Fütterungsrate, Nestbewachung oder Neststandort.

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Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

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Since 1990, the issue of homelessness has become increasingly important in Hungary as a result of economic and structural changes. Various suggestions as to how the problem may be solved have always been preceded by the question "How many homeless people are there?" and there is still no official consensus as to the answer. Counting of the homeless is particularly difficult because of the bias in the initial sampling frame due to two factors that characterise this population: the definition of homelessness, and its 'hidden' nature. David aimed to estimate the size of the homeless population of Budapest by using two non-standard sampling methods: snowball sampling and the capture-recapture method. Her calculations are based on three data sets: one snowball data set and two independent list data sets. These estimators, supported by other statistical data, suggest that in 1999 there were about 8000-10000 homeless people in Budapest.

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In this position paper, we claim that the need for time consuming data preparation and result interpretation tasks in knowledge discovery, as well as for costly expert consultation and consensus building activities required for ontology building can be reduced through exploiting the interplay of data mining and ontology engineering. The aim is to obtain in a semi-automatic way new knowledge from distributed data sources that can be used for inference and reasoning, as well as to guide the extraction of further knowledge from these data sources. The proposed approach is based on the creation of a novel knowledge discovery method relying on the combination, through an iterative ?feedbackloop?, of (a) data mining techniques to make emerge implicit models from data and (b) pattern-based ontology engineering to capture these models in reusable, conceptual and inferable artefacts.

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This study investigated how harvest and water management affected the ecology of the Pig Frog, Rana grylio. It also examined how mercury levels in leg muscle tissue vary spatially across the Everglades. Rana grylio is an intermediate link in the Everglades food web. Although common, this inconspicuous species can be affected by three forms of anthropogenic disturbance: harvest, water management and mercury contamination. This frog is harvested both commercially and recreationally for its legs, is aquatic and thus may be susceptible to water management practices, and can transfer mercury throughout the Everglades food web. ^ This two-year study took place in three major regions: Everglades National Park (ENP), Water Conservation Areas 3A (A), and Water Conservation Area 3B (B). The study categorized the three sites by their relative harvest level and hydroperiod. During the spring of 2001, areas of the Everglades dried completely. On a regional and local scale Pig Frog abundance was highest in Site A, the longest hydroperiod, heavily harvested site, followed by ENP and B. More frogs were found along survey transects and in capture-recapture plots before the dry-down than after the dry-down in Sites ENP and B. Individual growth patterns were similar across all sites, suggesting differences in body size may be due to selective harvest. Frogs from Site A, the flooded and harvested site, had no differences in survival rates between adults and juveniles. Site B populations shifted from a juvenile to adult dominated population after the dry-down. Dry-downs appeared to affect survival rates more than harvest. ^ Total mercury in frog leg tissue was highest in protected areas of Everglades National Park with a maximum concentration of 2.3 mg/kg wet mass where harvesting is prohibited. Similar spatial patterns in mercury levels were found among pig frogs and other wildlife throughout parts of the Everglades. Pig Frogs may be transferring substantial levels of mercury to other wildlife species in ENP. ^ In summary, although it was found that abundance and survival were reduced by dry-down, lack of adult size classes in Site A, suggest harvest also plays a role in regulating population structure. ^

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The caatinga is considered the only exclusively Brazilian biome, with a total area of 735.000km². It is estimated that about 59% of this area has already been removed and only 2% are protected in conservations units. The region is characteristic by strong seasonality and heterogeneity in their environments. This paper sets generate information on morphological and population patterns Lanio pilatus in two areas of caatinga of Estação Ecológica do Seridó (ESEC – Seridó), Serra Negra do Norte - RN. Data collection was performed in six phases between July 2012 and December 2014, covering the end of the dry and rainy seasons in the region. The captures were performed with nets and individuals captured were marked with metal rings and measured (weight, wing length, tail, tarsus, culmen and tip of the bill to nostril). Through these measures, we observed that only males of open area range in weight during the dry and rainy season, youngs were significantly lower for all parameters measured, and males were larger than females in three characteristics (weight, wing length and tail) in open area and only one (wing length) in the closed area. The population parameters were generated from the mark-capture-recapture technique by program MARK, using the techniques of robust design and CJS. The survival probability of detection and population estimates varied with time. Only individuals of open area fluctuated in their estimates during the study. Overall, the environment was a great mediator of results which increases the need for more studies on the life history of the species in the region.

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Marine mammals exploit the efficiency of sound propagation in the marine environment for essential activities like communication and navigation. For this reason, passive acoustics has particularly high potential for marine mammal studies, especially those aimed at population management and conservation. Despite the rapid realization of this potential through a growing number of studies, much crucial information remains unknown or poorly understood. This research attempts to address two key knowledge gaps, using the well-studied bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a model species, and underwater acoustic recordings collected on four fixed autonomous sensors deployed at multiple locations in Sarasota Bay, Florida, between September 2012 and August 2013. Underwater noise can hinder dolphin communication. The ability of these animals to overcome this obstacle was examined using recorded noise and dolphin whistles. I found that bottlenose dolphins are able to compensate for increased noise in their environment using a wide range of strategies employed in a singular fashion or in various combinations, depending on the frequency content of the noise, noise source, and time of day. These strategies include modifying whistle frequency characteristics, increasing whistle duration, and increasing whistle redundancy. Recordings were also used to evaluate the performance of six recently developed passive acoustic abundance estimation methods, by comparing their results to the true abundance of animals, obtained via a census conducted within the same area and time period. The methods employed were broadly divided into two categories – those involving direct counts of animals, and those involving counts of cues (signature whistles). The animal-based methods were traditional capture-recapture, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR), and an approach that blends the “snapshot” method and mark-recapture distance sampling, referred to here as (SMRDS). The cue-based methods were conventional distance sampling (CDS), an acoustic modeling approach involving the use of the passive sonar equation, and SECR. In the latter approach, detection probability was modelled as a function of sound transmission loss, rather than the Euclidean distance typically used. Of these methods, while SMRDS produced the most accurate estimate, SECR demonstrated the greatest potential for broad applicability to other species and locations, with minimal to no auxiliary data, such as distance from sound source to detector(s), which is often difficult to obtain. This was especially true when this method was compared to traditional capture-recapture results, which greatly underestimated abundance, despite attempts to account for major unmodelled heterogeneity. Furthermore, the incorporation of non-Euclidean distance significantly improved model accuracy. The acoustic modelling approach performed similarly to CDS, but both methods also strongly underestimated abundance. In particular, CDS proved to be inefficient. This approach requires at least 3 sensors for localization at a single point. It was also difficult to obtain accurate distances, and the sample size was greatly reduced by the failure to detect some whistles on all three recorders. As a result, this approach is not recommended for marine mammal abundance estimation when few recorders are available, or in high sound attenuation environments with relatively low sample sizes. It is hoped that these results lead to more informed management decisions, and therefore, more effective species conservation.

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The purpose of my study was to collect data on managed cat (Felis catus) colonies located in two Miami-Dade County, Florida, parks, in order to test the following assertions put forward by proponents of the colonies: 1) Managed cat colonies will decline in size over time and 2) The territorial behavior of cats living in established cat colonies will prevent additional cats from joining. I collected observational and photographic capture-recapture data in order to track colony population dynamics. Behavioral data were also collected in order to understand the role that cat behavior plays in influencing colony population dynamics. My results do not support the assertion that colonies will decline over time. Instead, my findings demonstrate that the establishment of colonies on public lands encourages dumping of cats and creates an attractive nuisance. Furthermore, my behavioral analysis suggests that territorial behavior does not play a role in excluding new cats.

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Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

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In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.