Bankruptcy Costs, Liability Dollarization, and Vulnerability to Sudden Stops

Emerging market countries that have improved institutions and attained intermediate levels of institutional quality have experienced severe financial crises following capital flow reversals. However, there is also evidence that countries with strong institutions and deep capital markets are less affected by external shocks. We reconcile these two observations using a calibrated DSGE model that extends the financial accelerator framework developed in Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The model captures financial market institutional quality with creditors. ability to recover assets from bankrupt firms. Bankruptcy costs affect vulnerability to sudden stops directly but also indirectly by affecting the degree of liability dollarization. Simulations reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between bankruptcy recovery rates and the output loss following sudden stops. We provide empirical evidence that this non-linear relationship exists.

Controle operário como direito

O controle operário é um fenômeno social, expressão direta da luta de classes e produto de um momento histórico no qual as relações sociais de produção são marcadas pela subsunção forma e real do trabalho ao capital e pela propriedade privada dos meios de produção. Nesse sentido, o controle operário se expressa em diversos momentos dessa histórica, seja como luta dos trabalhadores pela sobrevivência, de forma a garantir o emprego e sua fonte de subsistência, ou, luta revolucionária, para a superação do modo de produção capitalista, almejando não só o controle no local de trabalho, mas do próprio Estado. Quando se está falando de uma fábrica ou empresa, o método geralmente utilizado para se alcançar este objetivo é a ocupação do estabelecimento e o controle do processo produtivo, mas é possível que seu controle possa ser exercido por meio de conselhos no interior da fábrica, respaldado por uma organização operária e popular mais geral na sociedade. Esse fenômeno normalmente é abordado na sociologia ou na política, de forma a verificar as relações e contradições do controle operário com o modo de produção vigente e com as instituições políticas como Estado, o partido ou o Sindicato. Cumpre no presente trabalho, todavia, abordar em que medida o controle operário pode ser encarado como um direito dos trabalhadores de assumirem o controle do processo produtivo no local de trabalho. A partir de uma abordagem histórica do fenômeno do controle operário e de sua expressão contemporânea, como produto de ocupações de fábricas falidas ou em dificuldades financeiras, nas quais o empregador passa a descumprir reiteradamente os direitos trabalhistas, verifica-se que, ao contrário de uma violação ao direito de propriedade ou direito de posse, o que se configura, nessas hipóteses, é um verdadeiro direito dos trabalhadores de controlar a produção, notadamente com o intuito de manter a unidade produtiva e a geração de emprego e renda para a sociedade. Nesse sentido, devem ser protegidos juridicamente os métodos da classe trabalhadora que se efetivam com este fim, como as greves de ocupações ativas, quando conferem à posse ou à propriedade sua função social. Todavia, este direito não surge livre de contradições. Com efeito, o direito reproduziria em si a lógica capitalista, ou poderia servir de instrumento para a classe trabalhadora? Embora encaremos a forma jurídica enquanto produto da forma mercantil e, portanto, essencialmente capitalista, verificamos que o próprio desenvolvimento dialético da história não se dá livre de contradições. A nova racionalidade do direito social, nesse sentido, seria um elemento que, se por um lado busca reafirmar a lógica capitalista em seu bojo, restabelecendo os padrões de igualdade e liberdade, por outro carrega consigo elementos que, em alguma medida, expõe as contradições e os limites do próprio direito. Portanto, o direito ao controle operário não se mostra elemento prejudicial à classe trabalhadora, embora seja acompanhado de contradições inerentes.

Who lost Ukraine? CEPS Commentary, 16 December 2013

In his penetrating look at who lost Ukraine, Ivan Krastev finds that ultimately, everybody got Ukraine wrong. In his view, outsiders need to understand how high the stakes have recently become in the post-Soviet space, where two opposing integration projects are doomed to clash. He concludes that there are only three options left for Ukraine: sign the agreement with the EU, as the majority of Ukrainians want; join Putin’s EurAsEC, as the endangered political elite prefers; or go bankrupt.

A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Can the eurozone’s economic governance combine political accountability, legitimacy and effectiveness? EPC Discussion Paper, 1 September 2015

After years of economic crisis, resulting in significant changes to economic governance at EU level, especially for the eurozone, the time has come to consider the longer term political and economic implications of this new situation for the economic integration process. Not only to determine how well the system is likely to function but also what more needs to be done to ensure long-term stability and to provide the EU institutions with sufficient political legitimacy to carry out this new role. This article does not consider abolishing the euro, based on the conviction that introducing the euro created a path dependency that makes trying to unpick the seams of the process extremely costly. While, economically, the exit of one eurozone member state might conceivably be manageable (but costly, especially for that country), the long term political costs might end up unravelling the whole European integration process, with the potential for a bankrupt and politically unstable state outside the euro but still within the EU. However, the status quo situation is still unstable, politically and economically, and needs further policy reforms.

The dramatic works of Samuel Foote, Esq. : In four volumes.

Head-piece.

LONGEVIDADE EMPRESARIAL: UM ESTUDO EM MICRO E PEQUENAS EMPRESAS DE SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO DO SETOR DE VAREJO

A quantidade de micro e pequenas empresas que encerram suas atividades no Brasil, antes de dois, três ou cinco anos, chega a taxas de mortalidade que se aproximam dos 75%. O presente estudo buscou analisar dez empresas de micro porte do setor de varejo na cidade de São Bernardo do Campo que estão em atividade e que conseguiram superar e vencer as taxas de mortalidade empresarial e de concorrência mercadológica. A investigação iniciou-se pelo ABC paulista, efetuando um levantamento no SEBRAE (Serviço Brasileiro de Apoio às Micro e Pequenas Empresas) e na JUCESP (Junta Comercial do Estado de São Paulo) para descobrir a quantidade de micro e pequenas empresas que estavam em atividade e que inauguraram entre 2006 e 2007. Posteriormente o foco foi para a cidade de São Bernardo do Campo onde foram inauguradas 744 MPE´s (Micro e Pequenas Empresas), sendo que 49 delas estavam categorizadas no setor de varejo do vestuário e por fim definiram-se dez empresas que atenderam aos pré-requisitos metodológicos do estudo. A discussão sobre o tema da longevidade empresarial, ou seja, entender quais foram às capacidades que algumas empresas tiveram de manter-se operante por tantos anos, foi fator essencial para o estudo. O objetivo central deste trabalho foi de verificar a forma de administrar e de tratar de seus negócios destes dez empresários que fizeram com que tivessem sobrevida no mercado. Este estudo valeu-se dos métodos qualitativos, de recorte transversal com amostra não probabilística e por cota para poder efetuar todo processo metodológico e construir a análise final da pesquisa.

Climate or rural development policy?

Being heavily energy dependent, it is not much of a surprise that Europe pays special attention to reducing the use of fossil fuels. Each one of the ten new member states is characterized by relatively low per capita energy consumption and relatively low energy efficiency, and the share of renewables in their energy mix tends to be low, too. The paper examines the problem when policy measures create a decrease in environmental capital instead of an increase. In this case it hardly seems justified to talk about environmental protection. The authors describe a case of a Hungarian rapeseed oil mill which would not be of too much interest on its own but given that almost all similar plants went bankrupt, there are some important lessons to learn from its survival. The enterprise the authors examined aimed at establishing a micro-regional network. They completed a brown-field development to establish a small plant on the premises of a former large agricultural cooperative. By partnering with the former employees and suppliers of the sometime cooperative, they enjoyed some benefits which all the other green-field businesses focusing on fuel production could not. The project improved food security, energy security and population retention as well.

Some aspects of European climate policy

Being heavily energy dependent, it is not much of a surprise that Europe pays special attention to reducing the use of fossil fuels. Each one of the ten new member states is characterized by relatively low per capita energy consumption and relatively low energy efficiency, and the share of renewables in their energy mix tends to be low, too. The paper examines the problem, when the policy measures create a decrease in environmental capital instead of an increase. In this case it hardly seems justified to talk about environmental protection. The authors describe a case of a rapeseed oil mill which would not be of too much interest on its own but given that almost all similar plants went bankrupt, there are some important lessons to learn from its survival. The enterprise the authors examined aimed at establishing a micro-regional network. They completed a brown-field development to establish a small plant on the premises of a former large agricultural cooperative. By partnering with the former employees and suppliers of the sometime cooperative, they enjoyed some benefits which all the other green-field businesses focusing on fuel production could not. The project improved food security, energy security and population retention as well.

A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

The Persistence of Torture: Explaining Coercive Interrogation in America’s Small Wars

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Essays on Market Frictions and Securitization

This dissertation provides a novel theory of securitization based on intermediaries minimizing the moral hazard that insiders can misuse assets held on-balance sheet. The model predicts how intermediaries finance different assets. Under deposit funding, the moral hazard is greatest for low-risk assets that yield sizable returns in bad states of nature; under securitization, it is greatest for high-risk assets that require high guarantees and large reserves. Intermediaries thus securitize low-risk assets. In an extension, I identify a novel channel through which government bailouts exacerbate the moral hazard and reduce total investment irrespective of the funding mode. This adverse effect is stronger under deposit funding, implying that intermediaries finance more risky assets off-balance sheet. The dissertation discusses the implications of different forms of guarantees. With explicit guarantees, banks securitize assets with either low information-intensity or low risk. By contrast, with implicit guarantees, banks only securitize assets with high information-intensity and low risk. Two extensions to the benchmark static and dynamic models are discussed. First, an extension to the static model studies the optimality of tranching versus securitization with guarantees. Tranching eliminates agency costs but worsens adverse selection, while securitization with guarantees does the opposite. When the quality of underlying assets in a certain security market is sufficiently heterogeneous, and when the highest quality assets are perceived to be sufficiently safe, securitization with guarantees dominates tranching. Second, in an extension to the dynamic setting, the moral hazard of misusing assets held on-balance sheet naturally gives rise to the moral hazard of weak ex-post monitoring in securitization. The use of guarantees reduces the dependence of banks' ex-post payoffs on monitoring efforts, thereby weakening monitoring incentives. The incentive to monitor under securitization with implicit guarantees is the weakest among all funding modes, as implicit guarantees allow banks to renege on their monitoring promises without being declared bankrupt and punished.