Impact of maritime air mass trajectories on the Western European coast urban aerosol

Lisbon is the largest urban area in the Western European coast. Due to this geographical position the Atlantic Ocean serves as an important source of particles and plays an important role in many atmospheric processes. The main objectives of this study were to (1) perform a chemical characterization of particulate matter (PM2.5) sampled in Lisbon, (2) identify the main sources of particles, (3) determine PM contribution to this urban area, and (4) assess the impact of maritime air mass trajectories on concentration and composition of respirable PM sampled in Lisbon. During 2007, PM2.5 was collected on a daily basis in the center of Lisbon with a Partisol sampler. The exposed Teflon filters were measured by gravimetry and cut into two parts: one for analysis by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and the other by ion chromatography (IC). Principal component analysis (PCA) and multilinear regression analysis (MLRA) were used to identify possible sources of PM2.5 and determine mass contribution. Five main groups of sources were identified: secondary aerosols, traffic, calcium, soil, and sea. Four-day backtracking trajectories ending in Lisbon at the starting sampling time were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. Results showed that maritime transport scenarios were frequent. These episodes were characterized by a significant decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and exerted a significant role on air quality in this urban area.

Impact of Sahara dust transport on Cape Verde atmospheric element particles

The objectives of this study were to (1) conduct an elemental characterization of airborne particles sampled in Cape Verde and (2) assess the influence of Sahara desert on local suspended particles. Particulate matter (PM10) was collected in Praia city (14°94'N; 23°49'W) with a low-volume sampler in order to characterize its chemical composition by k0-INAA. The filter samples were first weighed and subsequently irradiated at the Portuguese Research Reactor. Results showed that PM10 concentrations in Cape Verde markedly exceeded the health-based air quality standards defined by the European Union (EU), World Health Organization (WHO), and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in part due to the influence of Sahara dust transport. The PM10 composition was characterized essentially by high concentrations of elements originating from the soil (K, Sm, Co, Fe, Sc, Rb, Cr, Ce, and Ba) and sea (Na), and low concentrations of anthropogenic elements (As, Zn, and Sb). In addition, the high concentrations of PM measured in Cape Verde suggest that health of the population may be less affected compared with other sites where PM10 concentrations are lower but more enriched with toxic elements.

A concentric analysis of the impact of urbanization on the threatened European tree frog in an agricultural landscape

Pond-breeding amphibians are affected by site-specific factors and regional and landscape-scale patterns of land use. Recent anthropogenic landscape modifications (drainage, agriculture intensification, larger road networks, and increased traffic) affect species by reducing the suitable habitat area and fragmenting remaining populations. Using a robust concentric approach based on permutation tests, we evaluated the impact of recent landscape changes on the presence of the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea.) in wetlands. We analyzed the frequency of 1 traffic and 14 land-use indices at 20 circular ranges (from 100-m up to 2-km radii) around 76 ponds identified in western Switzerland. Urban areas and road surfaces had a strong adverse effect on tree frog presence even at relatively great distances (from 100 m up to 1 km). When traffic measurements were considered instead of road surfaces, the effect increased, suggesting a negative impact due to a vehicle-induced effect. Altogether, our results indicate that urbanization and traffic must be taken into account when pond creation is an option in conservation management plans, as is the case for the European tree frog in western Switzerland. We conclude that our easy-to-use and robust concentric method of analysis can successfully assist managers in identifying potential sites for pond creation, where probability of the presence of tree frogs is maximized.

Parallel declines in species and genetic diversity driven by anthropogenic disturbance: a multispecies approach in a French Atlantic dune system.

Numerous studies assess the correlation between genetic and species diversities, but the processes underlying the observed patterns have only received limited attention. For instance, varying levels of habitat disturbance across a region may locally reduce both diversities due to extinctions, and increased genetic drift during population bottlenecks and founder events. We investigated the regional distribution of genetic and species diversities of a coastal sand dune plant community along 240 kilometers of coastline with the aim to test for a correlation between the two diversity levels. We further quantify and tease apart the respective contributions of natural and anthropogenic disturbance factors to the observed patterns. We detected significant positive correlation between both variables. We further revealed a negative impact of urbanization: Sites with a high amount of recreational infrastructure within 10 km coastline had significantly lowered genetic and species diversities. On the other hand, a measure of natural habitat disturbance had no effect. This study shows that parallel variation of genetic and species diversities across a region can be traced back to human landscape alteration, provides arguments for a more resolute dune protection, and may help to design priority conservation areas.

Testate amoebae (thecamoebians) as indicators of aquatic mine impact

The environmental impacts of a single mine often remain local, but acidic and metal-rich acid mine drainage (AMD) from the waste materials may pose a serious threat to adjacent surface waters and their ecosystems. Testate amoebae (thecamoebian) analysis was used together with lake sediment geochemistry to study and evaluate the ecological effects of sulphidic metal mines on aquatic environments. Three different mines were included in the study: Luikonlahti Cu-mine in Kaavi, eastern Finland, Haveri Cu-Au mine in Ylöjärvi, southern Finland and Pyhäsalmi Zn-Cu-S mine in Pyhäjärvi, central Finland. Luikonlahti and Haveri are closed mines, but Pyhäsalmi is still operating. The sampling strategy was case specific, and planned to provide a representative sediment sample series to define natural background conditions, to detect spatial and temporal variations in mine impacts, to evaluate the possible recovery after the peak contamination, and to distinguish the effects of other environmental factors from the mining impacts. In the Haveri case, diatom analyses were performed alongside thecamoebian analysis to evaluate the similarities and differences between the two proxies. The results of the analyses were investigated with multivariate methods (direct and indirect ordinations, diversity and distance measure indices). Finally, the results of each case study were harmonized, pooled, and jointly analyzed to summarize the results for this dissertation. Geochemical results showed broadly similar temporal patterns in each case. Concentrations of ions in the pre-disturbance samples defined the natural baseline against which other results were compared. The beginning of the mining activities had only minor impacts on sediment geochemistry, mainly appearing as an increased clastic input into the lakes at Haveri and Pyhäsalmi. The active mining phase was followed by the metallic contamination and, subsequently, by the most recent change towards decreased but still elevated metal concentrations in the sediments. Because of the delay in the oxidation of waste material and formation of AMD, the most intense, but transient metal contamination phase occurred in the post-mining period at Luikonlahti and Haveri. At Pyhäsalmi, the highest metal contamination preceded effluent mitigation actions. Spatial gradients were observed besides the temporal evolution in both the pre-disturbance and mine-impacted samples from Luikonlahti and Pyhäsalmi. The geochemical gradients varied with distance from the main source of contaminants (dispersion and dilution) and with water depth (redox and pH). The spatial extent of the highest metal contamination associated with these mines remained rather limited. At Haveri, the metallic impact was widespread, with the upstream site in another lake basin found to be contaminated. Changes in thecamoebian assemblages corresponded well with the geochemical results. Despite some differences, the general features and ecological responses of the faunal assemblages were rather similar in each lake. Constantly abundant strains of Difflugia oblonga, Difflugia protaeiformis and centropyxids formed the core of these assemblages. Increasing proportions of Cucurbitella tricuspis towards the surface samples were found in all of the cases. The results affirmed the indicator value of some already known indicator forms, but such as C. tricuspis and higher nutrient levels, but also elicited possible new ones such as D. oblonga ‘spinosa’ and clayey substrate, high conductivity and/or alkalinity, D. protaeiformis ‘multicornis’ and pH, water hardness and the amount of clastic material and Centropyxis constricta ‘aerophila’ and high metal and S concentrations. In each case, eutrophication appeared to be the most important environmental factor, masking the effects of other variables. Faunal responses to high metal inputs in sediments remained minor, but were nevertheless detectable. Besides the trophic state of the lake, numerical methods suggested overall geochemical conditions (pH, redox) to be the most important factor at Luikonlahti, whereas the Haveri results showed the clearest connection between metals and amoebae. At Pyhäsalmi, the strongest relationships were found between Ca- and S-rich present loading, redox conditions and substrate composition. Sediment geochemistry and testate amoeba analysis proved to be a suitable combination of methods to detect and describe the aquatic mine impacts in each specific case, to evaluate recovery and to differentiate between the effects of different anthropogenic and natural environmental factors. It was also suggested that aquatic mine impacts can be significantly mitigated by careful design and after-care of the waste facilities, especially by reducing and preventing AMD. The case-specific approach is nevertheless necessary because of the unique characteristics of each mine and variations in the environmental background conditions.

Dynamic ecosystems under anthropogenic stress : how does macrotidal sandy fauna respond to green tides?

Highly dynamic systems, often considered as resilient systems, are characterised by abiotic and biotic processes under continuous and strong changes in space and time. Because of this variability, the detection of overlapping anthropogenic stress is challenging. Coastal areas harbour dynamic ecosystems in the form of open sandy beaches, which cover the vast majority of the world’s ice-free coastline. These ecosystems are currently threatened by increasing human-induced pressure, among which mass-development of opportunistic macroalgae (mainly composed of Chlorophyta, so called green tides), resulting from the eutrophication of coastal waters. The ecological impact of opportunistic macroalgal blooms (green tides, and blooms formed by other opportunistic taxa), has long been evaluated within sheltered and non-tidal ecosystems. Little is known, however, on how more dynamic ecosystems, such as open macrotidal sandy beaches, respond to such stress. This thesis assesses the effects of anthropogenic stress on the structure and the functioning of highly dynamic ecosystems using sandy beaches impacted by green tides as a study case. The thesis is based on four field studies, which analyse natural sandy sediment benthic community dynamics over several temporal (from month to multi-year) and spatial (from local to regional) scales. In this thesis, I report long-lasting responses of sandy beach benthic invertebrate communities to green tides, across thousands of kilometres and over seven years; and highlight more pronounced responses of zoobenthos living in exposed sandy beaches compared to semi-exposed sands. Within exposed sandy sediments, and across a vertical scale (from inshore to nearshore sandy habitats), I also demonstrate that the effects of the presence of algal mats on intertidal benthic invertebrate communities is more pronounced than that on subtidal benthic invertebrate assemblages, but also than on flatfish communities. Focussing on small-scale variations in the most affected faunal group (i.e. benthic invertebrates living at low shore), this thesis reveals a decrease in overall beta-diversity along a eutrophication-gradient manifested in the form of green tides, as well as the increasing importance of biological variables in explaining ecological variability of sandy beach macrobenthic assemblages along the same gradient. To illustrate the processes associated with the structural shifts observed where green tides occurred, I investigated the effects of high biomasses of opportunistic macroalgae (Ulva spp.) on the trophic structure and functioning of sandy beaches. This work reveals a progressive simplification of sandy beach food web structure and a modification of energy pathways over time, through direct and indirect effects of Ulva mats on several trophic levels. Through this thesis I demonstrate that highly dynamic systems respond differently (e.g. shift in δ13C, not in δ15N) and more subtly (e.g. no mass-mortality in benthos was found) to anthropogenic stress compared to what has been previously shown within more sheltered and non-tidal systems. Obtaining these results would not have been possible without the approach used through this work; I thus present a framework coupling field investigations with analytical approaches to describe shifts in highly variable ecosystems under human-induced stress.

Comprehensive evaluation of the WaterGAP3 model across climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic gradients

In den letzten Jahrzehnten haben sich makroskalige hydrologische Modelle als wichtige Werkzeuge etabliert um den Zustand der globalen erneuerbaren Süßwasserressourcen flächendeckend bewerten können. Sie werden heutzutage eingesetzt um eine große Bandbreite wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen zu beantworten, insbesondere hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen anthropogener Einflüsse auf das natürliche Abflussregime oder der Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels und Klimawandels auf die Ressource Wasser. Diese Auswirkungen lassen sich durch verschiedenste wasserbezogene Kenngrößen abschätzen, wie z.B. erneuerbare (Grund-)Wasserressourcen, Hochwasserrisiko, Dürren, Wasserstress und Wasserknappheit. Die Weiterentwicklung makroskaliger hydrologischer Modelle wurde insbesondere durch stetig steigende Rechenkapazitäten begünstigt, aber auch durch die zunehmende Verfügbarkeit von Fernerkundungsdaten und abgeleiteten Datenprodukten, die genutzt werden können, um die Modelle anzutreiben und zu verbessern. Wie alle makro- bis globalskaligen Modellierungsansätze unterliegen makroskalige hydrologische Simulationen erheblichen Unsicherheiten, die (i) auf räumliche Eingabedatensätze, wie z.B. meteorologische Größen oder Landoberflächenparameter, und (ii) im Besonderen auf die (oftmals) vereinfachte Abbildung physikalischer Prozesse im Modell zurückzuführen sind. Angesichts dieser Unsicherheiten ist es unabdingbar, die tatsächliche Anwendbarkeit und Prognosefähigkeit der Modelle unter diversen klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen zu überprüfen. Bisher wurden die meisten Evaluierungsstudien jedoch lediglich in wenigen, großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgeführt oder fokussierten auf kontinentalen Wasserflüssen. Dies steht im Kontrast zu vielen Anwendungsstudien, deren Analysen und Aussagen auf simulierten Zustandsgrößen und Flüssen in deutlich feinerer räumlicher Auflösung (Gridzelle) basieren. Den Kern der Dissertation bildet eine umfangreiche Evaluierung der generellen Anwendbarkeit des globalen hydrologischen Modells WaterGAP3 für die Simulation von monatlichen Abflussregimen und Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen auf Basis von mehr als 2400 Durchflussmessreihen für den Zeitraum 1958-2010. Die betrachteten Flusseinzugsgebiete repräsentieren ein breites Spektrum klimatischer und physiographischer Bedingungen, die Einzugsgebietsgröße reicht von 3000 bis zu mehreren Millionen Quadratkilometern. Die Modellevaluierung hat dabei zwei Zielsetzungen: Erstens soll die erzielte Modellgüte als Bezugswert dienen gegen den jegliche weiteren Modellverbesserungen verglichen werden können. Zweitens soll eine Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung entwickelt und getestet werden, die eindeutige Ansatzpunkte zur Modellverbesserung aufzeigen soll, falls die Modellgüte unzureichend ist. Hierzu werden komplementäre Modellgütemaße mit neun Gebietsparametern verknüpft, welche die klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen sowie den Grad anthropogener Beeinflussung in den einzelnen Einzugsgebieten quantifizieren. WaterGAP3 erzielt eine mittlere bis hohe Modellgüte für die Simulation von sowohl monatlichen Abflussregimen als auch Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen, jedoch sind für alle betrachteten Modellgütemaße deutliche räumliche Muster erkennbar. Von den neun betrachteten Gebietseigenschaften weisen insbesondere der Ariditätsgrad und die mittlere Gebietsneigung einen starken Einfluss auf die Modellgüte auf. Das Modell tendiert zur Überschätzung des jährlichen Abflussvolumens mit steigender Aridität. Dieses Verhalten ist charakteristisch für makroskalige hydrologische Modelle und ist auf die unzureichende Abbildung von Prozessen der Abflussbildung und –konzentration in wasserlimitierten Gebieten zurückzuführen. In steilen Einzugsgebieten wird eine geringe Modellgüte hinsichtlich der Abbildung von monatlicher Abflussvariabilität und zeitlicher Dynamik festgestellt, die sich auch in der Güte der Niedrig- und Hochwassersimulation widerspiegelt. Diese Beobachtung weist auf notwendige Modellverbesserungen in Bezug auf (i) die Aufteilung des Gesamtabflusses in schnelle und verzögerte Abflusskomponente und (ii) die Berechnung der Fließgeschwindigkeit im Gerinne hin. Die im Rahmen der Dissertation entwickelte Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung durch Verknüpfung von komplementären Modellgütemaßen und Einzugsgebietseigenschaften wurde exemplarisch am Beispiel des WaterGAP3 Modells erprobt. Die Methode hat sich als effizientes Werkzeug erwiesen, um räumliche Muster in der Modellgüte zu erklären und Defizite in der Modellstruktur zu identifizieren. Die entwickelte Methode ist generell für jedes hydrologische Modell anwendbar. Sie ist jedoch insbesondere für makroskalige Modelle und multi-basin Studien relevant, da sie das Fehlen von feldspezifischen Kenntnissen und gezielten Messkampagnen, auf die üblicherweise in der Einzugsgebietsmodellierung zurückgegriffen wird, teilweise ausgleichen kann.

Record of natural and anthropogenic changes in reef environments (Barbados West Indies) using laser ablation ICP-MS and sclerochronology on coral cores

Coral growth rate can be affected by environmental parameters such as seawater temperature, depth, and light intensity. The natural reef environment is also disturbed by human influences such as anthropogenic pollutants, which in Barbados are released close to the reefs. Here we describe a relatively new method of assessing the history of pollution and explain how these effects have influenced the coral communities off the west coast of Barbados. We evaluate the relative impact of both anthropogenic pollutants and natural stresses. Sclerochronology documents framework and skeletal growth rate and records pollution history (recorded as reduced growth) for a suite of sampled Montastraea annularis coral cores. X-radiography shows annual growth band patterns of the corals extending back over several decades and indicates significantly lower growth rate in polluted sites. Results using laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) on the whole sample (aragonite, organic matter, trapped particulate matter, etc.), have shown contrasting concentrations of the trace elements (Cu, Sn, Zn, and Pb) between corals at different locations and within a single coral. Deepwater corals 7 km apart, record different levels of Pb and Sn, suggesting that a current transported the metal pollution in the water. In addition, the 1995 hurricanes are associated with anomalous values for Sn and Cu from most sites. These are believed to result from dispersion of nearshore polluted water. We compared the concentrations of trace elements in the coral growth of particular years to those in the relevant contemporaneous seawater. Mean values for the concentration factor in the coral, relative to the water, ranged from 10 for Cu and Ni to 2.4 and 0.7 for Cd and Zn, respectively. Although the uncertainties are large (60-80%), the coral record enabled us to demonstrate the possibility of calculating a history of seawater pollution for these elements from the 1940s to 1997. Our values were much higher than those obtained from analysis of carefully cleaned coral aragonite; they demonstrate the incorporation of more contamination including that from particulate material as well as dissolved metals.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact Experiment (ADRIEX) overview

The Aerosol Direct Radiative Experiment (ADRIEX) took place over the Adriatic and Black Seas during August and September 2004 with the aim of characterizing anthropogenic aerosol in these regions in terms of its physical and optical properties and establishing its impact on radiative balance. Eight successful flights of the UK BAE-146 Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements were completed together with surface-based lidar and AERONET measurements, in conjunction with satellite overpasses. This paper outlines the motivation for the campaign, the methodology and instruments used, describes the synoptic situation and provides an overview of the key results. ADRIEX successfully measured a range of aerosol conditions across the northern Adriatic, Po Valley and Black Sea. Generally two layers of aerosol were found in the vertical: in the flights over the Black Sea and the Po Valley these showed differences in chemical and microphysical properties, whilst over the Adriatic the layers were often more similar. Nitrate aerosol was found to be important in the Po Valley region. The use of new instruments to measure the aerosol chemistry and mixing state and to use this information in determining optical properties is demonstrated. These results are described in much more detail in the subsequent papers of this special issue.

Biogenic nitric oxide emissions from soils: impact on NOx and ozone over West Africa during AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) - Modelling study

Nitrogen oxide biogenic emissions from soils are driven by soil and environmental parameters. The relationship between these parameters and NO fluxes is highly non linear. A new algorithm, based on a neural network calculation, is used to reproduce the NO biogenic emissions linked to precipitations in the Sahel on the 6 August 2006 during the AMMA campaign. This algorithm has been coupled in the surface scheme of a coupled chemistry dynamics model (MesoNH Chemistry) to estimate the impact of the NO emissions on NOx and O3 formation in the lower troposphere for this particular episode. Four different simulations on the same domain and at the same period are compared: one with anthropogenic emissions only, one with soil NO emissions from a static inventory, at low time and space resolution, one with NO emissions from neural network, and one with NO from neural network plus lightning NOx. The influence of NOx from lightning is limited to the upper troposphere. The NO emission from soils calculated with neural network responds to changes in soil moisture giving enhanced emissions over the wetted soil, as observed by aircraft measurements after the passing of a convective system. The subsequent enhancement of NOx and ozone is limited to the lowest layers of the atmosphere in modelling, whereas measurements show higher concentrations above 1000 m. The neural network algorithm, applied in the Sahel region for one particular day of the wet season, allows an immediate response of fluxes to environmental parameters, unlike static emission inventories. Stewart et al (2008) is a companion paper to this one which looks at NOx and ozone concentrations in the boundary layer as measured on a research aircraft, examines how they vary with respect to the soil moisture, as indicated by surface temperature anomalies, and deduces NOx fluxes. In this current paper the model-derived results are compared to the observations and calculated fluxes presented by Stewart et al (2008).

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.

Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes

Recent studies using comprehensive middle atmosphere models predict a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in response to climate change. To gain confidence in the realism of this result it is important to quantify and understand the contributions from the different components of stratospheric wave drag that cause this increase. Such an analysis is performed here using three 150-yr transient simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a Chemistry-Climate Model that simulates climate change and ozone depletion and recovery. Resolved wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag account for 60% and 40%, respectively, of the long-term trend in annual mean net upward mass flux at 70 hPa, with planetary waves accounting for 60% of the resolved wave drag trend. Synoptic wave drag has the strongest impact in northern winter, where it accounts for nearly as much of the upward mass flux trend as planetary wave drag. Owing to differences in the latitudinal structure of the wave drag changes, the relative contribution of resolved and parameterized wave drag to the tropical upward mass flux trend over any particular latitude range is highly sensitive to the range of latitudes considered. An examination of the spatial structure of the climate change response reveals no straightforward connection between the low-latitude and high-latitude changes: while the model results show an increase in Arctic downwelling in winter, they also show a decrease in Antarctic downwelling in spring. Both changes are attributed to changes in the flux of stationary planetary wave activity into the stratosphere.

The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet

In the past several decades, the tropospheric westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to accelerate on the poleward side of the surface wind maximum. This has been attributed to the combined anthropogenic effects of increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone and is predicted to continue by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) models. In this paper, the predictions of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) models are examined: Unlike the AR4 models, the CCMVal models have a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Owing to the expected disappearance of the ozone hole in the first half of the 21st century, the CCMVal models predict that the tropospheric westerlies in Southern Hemisphere summer will be decelerated, on the poleward side, in contrast with the prediction of most IPCC/AR4 models.

Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts*

Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part of the recorded increase in TC counts. This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less) in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily due to an increase in very short-lived TCs. The authors also undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques. These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.