Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Falsification and corroboration of conceptual hydrological models using geophysical data

Geophysical data may provide crucial information about hydrological properties, states, and processes that are difficult to obtain by other means. Large data sets can be acquired over widely different scales in a minimally invasive manner and at comparatively low costs, but their effective use in hydrology makes it necessary to understand the fidelity of geophysical models, the assumptions made in their construction, and the links between geophysical and hydrological properties. Geophysics has been applied for groundwater prospecting for almost a century, but it is only in the last 20 years that it is regularly used together with classical hydrological data to build predictive hydrological models. A largely unexplored venue for future work is to use geophysical data to falsify or rank competing conceptual hydrological models. A promising cornerstone for such a model selection strategy is the Bayes factor, but it can only be calculated reliably when considering the main sources of uncertainty throughout the hydrogeophysical parameter estimation process. Most classical geophysical imaging tools tend to favor models with smoothly varying property fields that are at odds with most conceptual hydrological models of interest. It is thus necessary to account for this bias or use alternative approaches in which proposed conceptual models are honored at all steps in the model building process.

Spiders on a Hot Volcanic Roof: Colonisation Pathways and Phylogeography of the Canary Islands Endemic Trap-Door Spider Titanidiops canariensis (Araneae, Idiopidae)

Studies conducted on volcanic islands have greatly contributed to our current understanding of how organisms diversify. The Canary Islands archipelago, located northwest of the coast of northern Africa, harbours a large number of endemic taxa. Because of their low vagility, mygalomorph spiders are usually absent from oceanic islands. The spider Titanidiops canariensis, which inhabits the easternmost islands of the archipelago, constitutes an exception to this rule. Here, we use a multi-locus approach that combines three mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the origins and phylogeography of this remarkable trap-door spider. We provide a timeframe for the colonisation of the Canary Islands using two alternative approaches: concatenation and species tree inference in a Bayesian relaxed clock framework. Additionally, we investigate the existence of cryptic species on the islands by means of a Bayesian multi-locus species delimitation method. Our results indicate that T. canariensis colonised the Canary Islands once, most likely during the Miocene, although discrepancies between the timeframes from different approaches make the exact timing uncertain. A complex evolutionary history for the species in the archipelago is revealed, which involves two independent colonisations of Fuerteventura from the ancestral range of T. canariensis in northern Lanzarote and a possible back colonisation of southern Lanzarote. The data further corroborate a previously proposed volcanic refugium, highlighting the impact of the dynamic volcanic history of the island on the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic taxa. T. canariensis includes at least two different species, one inhabiting the Jandia peninsula and central Fuerteventura and one spanning from central Fuerteventura to Lanzarote. Our data suggest that the extant northern African Titanidiops lineages may have expanded to the region after the islands were colonised and, hence, are not the source of colonisation. In addition, T. maroccanus may harbour several cryptic species.

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Kernel-Based Ranking. Methods for Learning and Performance Estimation

Machine learning provides tools for automated construction of predictive models in data intensive areas of engineering and science. The family of regularized kernel methods have in the recent years become one of the mainstream approaches to machine learning, due to a number of advantages the methods share. The approach provides theoretically well-founded solutions to the problems of under- and overfitting, allows learning from structured data, and has been empirically demonstrated to yield high predictive performance on a wide range of application domains. Historically, the problems of classification and regression have gained the majority of attention in the field. In this thesis we focus on another type of learning problem, that of learning to rank. In learning to rank, the aim is from a set of past observations to learn a ranking function that can order new objects according to how well they match some underlying criterion of goodness. As an important special case of the setting, we can recover the bipartite ranking problem, corresponding to maximizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in binary classification. Ranking applications appear in a large variety of settings, examples encountered in this thesis include document retrieval in web search, recommender systems, information extraction and automated parsing of natural language. We consider the pairwise approach to learning to rank, where ranking models are learned by minimizing the expected probability of ranking any two randomly drawn test examples incorrectly. The development of computationally efficient kernel methods, based on this approach, has in the past proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is not clear what techniques for estimating the predictive performance of learned models are the most reliable in the ranking setting, and how the techniques can be implemented efficiently. The contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we develop RankRLS, a computationally efficient kernel method for learning to rank, that is based on minimizing a regularized pairwise least-squares loss. In addition to training methods, we introduce a variety of algorithms for tasks such as model selection, multi-output learning, and cross-validation, based on computational shortcuts from matrix algebra. Second, we improve the fastest known training method for the linear version of the RankSVM algorithm, which is one of the most well established methods for learning to rank. Third, we study the combination of the empirical kernel map and reduced set approximation, which allows the large-scale training of kernel machines using linear solvers, and propose computationally efficient solutions to cross-validation when using the approach. Next, we explore the problem of reliable cross-validation when using AUC as a performance criterion, through an extensive simulation study. We demonstrate that the proposed leave-pair-out cross-validation approach leads to more reliable performance estimation than commonly used alternative approaches. Finally, we present a case study on applying machine learning to information extraction from biomedical literature, which combines several of the approaches considered in the thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides the background for the research work and summarizes the most central results, Part II consists of the five original research articles that are the main contribution of this thesis.

Postmodernia matkailua : vaihtoehtoisia lähestymistapoja?

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Anomalous somatic embryos in Acca sellowiana (O. Berg) Burret (Myrtaceae)

Somatic embryogenesis represents a valuable tool for the studies on the basic aspects of plant embryo development. Today this process is used as a potencial technique for large-scale plant micropropagation although, so far, it has been applied to only a small number of species. However, when somatic embryos are malformed they are considered economically useless. In Acca sellowiana (O. Berg) Burret, an important fruit-producing crop, large amounts of anomalous somatic embryos (76.3%) were found just after 40 days of culture of explants in a 2,4-D containing medium. Among the anomalous forms found in the cotiledonary stage, 12.2% consisted of fused embryos, 40.4% displayed fused cotyledons, 13.0% presented supernumerary cotyledons, and 10.7% showed absence or poorly developed cotyledons, including those without the shoot apical meristem. Histological analyses indicated that the altered embryos were formed either directly from cotyledons, hypocotyl and radicle of the zygotic embryos used as explants, or indirectly from calli formed from these tissue parts. It is suggested that the formation of anomalous somatic embryos, as well as a low frequency of conversion into emblings reflect physiological and/or genetic disturbances triggered by the presence of 2,4-D in the medium. In vitro experimental alternative approaches are discussed in order to lessen the occurrence of malformed somatic embryos.

Conventional and novel strategies in the treatment of adrenocortical cancer

Adrenocortical carcinoma is a highly malignant neoplasm with an incidence of two per million people per year. Several treatment strategies have resulted in temporary or partial tumor regression but very few cases have attained long survival. Surgical resection of the primary tumor and metastases is most effective. Several chemotherapeutic protocols have been employed with variable success. Mitotane (o,p'-DDD) is an adrenalytic drug effective in inducing a tumor response in 33% of patients treated. Mitotane requires metabolic transformation for therapeutic action. Tumors may vary in their ability to metabolize mitotane and the ability of tumors to transform mitotane may predict the clinical response to the drug. Preliminary data show a possible correlation between metabolic activity of neoplastic adrenocortical tissue and response to mitotane. We have attempted to develop mitotane analogs with enhanced adrenalytic effect. Compared to mitotane, a di-chloro compound, the bromo-chloro and di-bromo analogs appear to have a greater effect. Future approaches to the treatment of adrenocortical carcinoma are likely to be based on blocking or reversing the biological mechanisms of tumorigenesis. Angiogenic and chemotactic mechanisms may play a role in adrenal tumor growth and inhibition of these mechanisms may result in inhibition of tumor growth. New mitotane analogs with greater adrenalytic potential could be a promising approach to developing more effective and selective therapies for adrenal cancer. Alternative approaches should attempt to suppress tumor growth by means of compounds with anti-angiogenic and anti-chemotactic activity.

Building climate justice : an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives

This thesis provides an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives. It draws upon seminal work conducted by John Kingdon, whose landmark publication “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” described how separate streams of problems, solutions, and politics converge to move an issue onto the public policy agenda toward potential government action. Building on Kingdon’s framework, this research explores how human rights contribute to surfacing the problem of climate change; developing alternative approaches to tackling climate change; and improving the political environment necessary for addressing climate change with sufficient ambition. The study reveals that climate change undermines the realization of human rights and that human rights can be effective tools in building climate resilience. This analysis was developed using a mixed methods approach and drawing upon substantial literature review, the researcher’s own participation in international climate policy design; elite interviews with thought leaders dealing with climate change and human rights; and regular inputs from focus groups comprised of practitioners drawn from the fields of climate change, development and human rights. This is a journal based thesis with a total of six articles submitted for evaluation, published in peer‐reviewed publications, over a five year period. Denna avhandling analyserar hur klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter i samverkan formar den politiska agendan och det politiskt möjliga. Den bygger på banbrytande forskning av John Kingdon, vars publikation “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” beskriver hur en fråga blir politiskt viktig och lyfts upp på den politiska agendan. Med utgångspunkt i Kingdons ramverk, utforskar avhandlingen hur mänskliga rättigheter bidrar till att blottlägga klimatfrågan som problem; utveckla alternativa metoder för att angripa och hantera klimatfrågan; samt skapa ett politiskt klimat nödvändigt för att på ett ambitiöst sätt kunna angripa klimatfrågan. Studien visar att klimatförändringar undergräver mänskliga rättigheterna men att arbete med mänskliga rättigheter kan vara ett effektivt verktyg för att stå emot och hantera effekterna av klimatförändringar. Analysen har genomförts med hjälp av en rad olika metoder vilka inkluderar litteraturstudier, författarens egna observationer under klimatförhandlingar; intervjuer med ledande tänkare inom klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter; samt data insamlad genom fokusgrupper bestående av yrkesverksamma inom klimat, utveckling och mänskliga rättigheter. Avhandlingen är baserad på totalt sex artiklar som publicerats i fackgranskade tidskrifter under en femårsperiod.

Gender and human security : the challenge facing Canada's human security policy /

During the 1980's and for much of the 1990's, many countries in the Asia Pacific were renowned for their economic development and prosperity. The Asian tigers were a source of great interest for many economists and international investors. The 1997 Asian financial crisis, however, dramatically altered the growth and the performance of these economies. The crisis sent several ofAsia's best performing economies on a downward spiral from which many have yet to fully recover. The crisis exposed the financial and the political weaknesses ofmany countries in the region. Moreover, the crisis severely affected the wellbeing and the security ofmany ofthe region's citizens. This text will examine the economic crisis in greater detail and explore current debates in the study of international relations theory. More specifically, this paper will examine recent challenges posed to traditional international relations theory and address alternative approaches to this field of study. This paper will examine Critical theory and its role in shifting the referent object of security from the state to the individual. In this context, this paper will also assess Critical theory's role in enabling such issues as gender and human security to find a place on the agendas of international relations scholars and foreign policy makers. The central focus ofthis study will be the financial crisis and its impact on human security in the Southeast Asia. Furthermore, this paper will assess the recovery efforts ofthe domestic governments, international organizations and various Canadian sponsored initiatives in the context ofhuman security.

Developmental patterns of individiuals within a sensory-based learning environment in art education : insights emerging from a case study /

My research permitted me to reexamine my recent evaluations of the Leaf Project given to the Foundation Year students during the fall semester of 1997. My personal description of the drawing curriculum formed part of the matrix of the Foundation Core Studies at the Ontario College of Art and Design. Research was based on the random selection of 1 8 students distributed over six of my teaching groups. The entire process included a representation of all grade levels. The intent of the research was to provide a pattern of alternative insights that could provide a more meaningful method of evaluation for visual learners in an art education setting. Visual methods of learning are indeed complex and involve the interplay of many sensory modalities of input. Using a qualitative method of research analysis, a series of queries were proposed into a structured matrix grid for seeking out possible and emerging patterns of learning. The grid provided for interrelated visual and linguistic analysis with emphasis in reflection and interconnectedness. Sensory-based modes of learning are currently being studied and discussed amongst educators as alternative approaches to learning. As patterns emerged from the research, it became apparent that a paradigm for evaluation would have to be a progressive profile of the learning that would take into account many of the different and evolving learning processes of the individual. A broader review of the student's entire development within the Foundation Year Program would have to have a shared evaluation through a cross section of representative faculty in the program. The results from the research were never intended to be conclusive. We realized from the start that sensory-based learning is a difficult process to evaluate from traditional standards used in education. The potential of such a process of inquiry permits the researcher to ask for a set of queries that might provide for a deeper form of evaluation unique to the students and their related learning environment. Only in this context can qualitative methods be used to profile their learning experiences in an expressive and meaningful manner.

Conflicting ideologies in early childhood education : an exploration of Reggio-inspired practice

Within the field of early childhood education, the ideologies of child development and its parent discipline, developmental psychology, dominate both theory and practice. In recent years, educators have attempted to reconceptualise early childhood education by adopting more progressive approaches to teaching and learning. The aim of this present research study was to critically examine the experiences of early childhood educators who have adopted a Reggioinspired approach to educating young children. To explore their experiences, an institutional ethnography was employed involving seven educators from a large child care organization in Hamilton, Ontario. In line with the intent ofthis study, qualitative data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews, participant-observations and textual analyses to explore the presence of developmental-psychological ideologies within early childhood education and Reggio-inspired practice. The present study also examined the challenges faced by educators who have adopted a Reggio-inspired approach. The results of this study indicate that ideologies associated with the developmental-psychological paradigm dominate the practice of early childhood educators and that the conflicting ideologies that surround Reggio educators may play a role in some of the challenges educators experience. The findings of this study thus demonstrate a need to adopt alternative approaches toward understanding both children and childhood, in both early childhood educational theory and practice.

STRATEGIES FOR PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF HEPATITIS C VIRUS INFECTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the causative agent of Hepatitis C, a serious global health problem which results in liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Currently there is no effective treatment or vaccine against the virus. Therefore, development of a therapeutic vaccine is of paramount importance. In this project, three alternative approaches were used to control HCV including a DNA vaccine, a recombinant viral vaccine and RNA interference. The first approach was to test the effect of different promoters on the efficacy of a DNA vaccine against HCV. Plasmids encoding HCV-NS3 and E1 antigens were designed under three different promoters, adenoviral E1A, MLP, and CMV ie. The promoter effect on the antigen expression in 293 cells, as well as on the antibody level in immunized BALB/c mice, was evaluated. The results showed that the antigens were successfully expressed from all vectors. The CMV ie promoter induced the highest antigen expression and the highest antibody level. Second, the efficiency of a recombinant adenovirus vaccine encoding HCV-NS3 was compared to that of a HCV-NS3 plasmid vaccine. The results showed that the recombinant adenovirus vaccine induced higher antibody levels as compared to the plasmid vaccine. The relationship between the immune response and miRNA was also evaluated. The levels of mir-181, mir-155, mir-21 and mir-296 were quantified in the sera of immunized animals. mir-181 and mir-21 were found to be upregulated in animals injected with adenoviral vectors. Third, two recombinant adenoviruses encoding siRNAs targeting both the helicase and protease parts of the NS3 region were tested for their ability to inhibit NS3 expression. The results showed that the siRNA against protease was more effective in silencing the HCV-NS3 gene in a HCV replicon cell line. This result confirmed the efficiency of adenovirus for siRNA delivery. These results confirmed that CMV ie is optimum promoter for immune response induction. Adenovirus was shown to be an effective delivery vector for antigens or siRNAs. In addition, miRNAs were proved to be involved in the regulation of immune response.

Intervenir auprès des jeunes au Québec: sociologies implicites

Parmi les pratiques d’intervention sociale qui se produisent quotidiennement dans les milieux institutionnel et associatif au Québec, une catégorie est particulièrement ciblée depuis quelques décennies, les jeunes ou la jeunesse. En s’inscrivant dans une démarche réflexive et exploratoire sur les fondements des pratiques d’intervention auprès des jeunes, le présent mémoire propose d’explorer le sens et la pertinence sociale de ces dernières à travers les perspectives des intervenants eux-mêmes. Pour ce faire, nous effectuons des études de cas selon une approche clinique et critique en sociologie. En allant chercher dans les témoignages d’un certain nombre d’intervenants des milieux institutionnel, communautaire et de l’employabilité leur connaissance expérientielle concernant la pratique d’intervention auprès des jeunes, nous dégageons des conceptions du social ou des sociologies implicites particulières. Se dégagent quatre idéaux-types - systémique, informationnel, normatif et clinique – qui visent respectivement l’émancipation, l’aide à l’insertion, la socialisation aux normes et le soutien humain. Notre analyse en termes de sociologie implicite explore la double question du sens selon les agents et de la fonction selon les processus engendrés. Elle permet d’articuler les conceptions que les agents sociaux se font de leur pratique avec son inscription dans le monde social. Ainsi, nous concluons que les pratiques d’intervention auprès des jeunes participent non seulement à la transformation sociale par l’ouverture d’espaces de liberté et de compréhension et par le soutien humain offert mais aussi à la normalisation et au contrôle par la constitution du marché du travail et/ou du monde adulte comme réalités auxquelles les jeunes doivent s’adapter.

Revue systématique d’interventions relatives à la gestion de symptômes chez la clientèle adulte traitée pour le VIH/sida

Travail dirigé présenté à la Faculté des sciences infirmières en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maître ès Sciences (M.Sc.) en sciences infirmières