Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Comparison of numerical models for vibro-acoustic analysis of structural panels in low modal density range engaging air layers

During launch, satellite and their equipment are subjected to loads of random nature and with a wide frequency range. Their vibro-acoustic response is an important issue to be analysed, for example for folded solar arrays and antennas. The main issue at low modal density is the modelling combinations engaging air layers, structures and external fluid. Depending on the modal density different methodologies, as FEM, BEM and SEA should be considered. This work focuses on the analysis of different combinations of the methodologies previously stated used in order to characterise the vibro-acoustic response of two rectangular sandwich structure panels isolated and engaging an air layer between them under a diffuse acoustic field. Focusing on the modelling of air layers, different models are proposed. To illustrate the phenomenology described and studied, experimental results from an acoustic test on an ARA-MKIII solar array in folded configuration are presented along with numerical results.

Hybrid analysis of nonlinear circuits: DAE models with indices zero and one

We extend in this paper some previous results concerning the differential-algebraic index of hybrid models of electrical and electronic circuits. Specifically, we present a comprehensive index characterization which holds without passivity requirements, in contrast to previous approaches, and which applies to nonlinear circuits composed of uncoupled, one-port devices. The index conditions, which are stated in terms of the forest structure of certain digraph minors, do not depend on the specific tree chosen in the formulation of the hybrid equations. Additionally, we show how to include memristors in hybrid circuit models; in this direction, we extend the index analysis to circuits including active memristors, which have been recently used in the design of nonlinear oscillators and chaotic circuits. We also discuss the extension of these results to circuits with controlled sources, making our framework of interest in the analysis of circuits with transistors, amplifiers, and other multiterminal devices.

Analysis of analogue models by helical X-ray computed tomography

The aim of analogue model experiments in geology is to simulate structures in nature under specific imposed boundary conditions using materials whose rheological properties are similar to those of rocks in nature. In the late 1980s, X-ray computed tomography (CT) was first applied to the analysis of such models. In early studies only a limited number of cross-sectional slices could be recorded because of the time involved in CT data acquisition, the long cooling periods for the X-ray source and computational capacity. Technological improvements presently allow an almost unlimited number of closely spaced serial cross-sections to be acquired and calculated. Computer visualization software allows a full 3D analysis of every recorded stage. Such analyses are especially valuable when trying to understand complex geological structures, commonly with lateral changes in 3D geometry. Periodic acquisition of volumetric data sets in the course of the experiment makes it possible to carry out a 4D analysis of the model, i.e. 3D analysis through time. Examples are shown of 4D analysis of analogue models that tested the influence of lateral rheological changes on the structures obtained in contractional and extensional settings.

Testing Independence in High Dimensions & Identifiability of Graphical Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Exact solution of the XXZ Gaudin model with generic open boundaries

The XXZ Gaudin model with generic integrable boundaries specified by generic non-diagonal K-matrices is studied. The commuting families of Gaudin operators are diagonalized by the algebraic Bethe ansatz method. The eigenvalues and the corresponding Bethe ansatz equations are obtained. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constructing institutional change: emergence, contestation and convergence of business models in the field of Java application servers

How are innovative new business models established if organizations constantly compare themselves against existing criteria and expectations? The objective is to address this question from the perspective of innovators and their ability to redefine established expectations and evaluation criteria. The research questions ask whether there are discernible patterns of discursive action through which innovators theorize institutional change and what role such theorizations play for mobilizing support and realizing change projects. These questions are investigated through a case study on a critical area of enterprise computing software, Java application servers. In the present case, business practices and models were already well established among incumbents with critical market areas allocated to few dominant firms. Fringe players started experimenting with a new business approach of selling services around freely available opensource application servers. While most new players struggled, one new entrant succeeded in leading incumbents to adopt and compete on the new model. The case demonstrates that innovative and substantially new models and practices are established in organizational fields when innovators are able to refine expectations and evaluation criteria within an organisational field. The study addresses the theoretical paradox of embedded agency. Actors who are embedded in prevailing institutional logics and structures find it hard to perceive potentially disruptive opportunities that fall outside existing ways of doing things. Changing prevailing institutional logics and structures requires strategic and institutional work aimed at overcoming barriers to innovation. The study addresses this problem through the lens of (new) institutional theory. This discourse methodology traces the process through which innovators were able to establish a new social and business model in the field.

The variance in sales performance explained by the knowledge structures of salespeople

The last major study of sales performance variance explained by salespeople attributes was by Churchill et al. (1985). They examined the effect of role, skills, motivation, personal factors, aptitude, and organizational/environmental factors on sales performance—factors that have dominated the sales performance area. About the same time, Weitz, Sujan, and Sujan (1986) introduced the concepts of salespeople's knowledge structures. Considerable work on the relationship of the elements of knowledge structures and performance can be found in the literature. In this research note, we determine the degree to which sales performance can be explained by knowledge structure variables, a heretofore unexplored area. If knowledge structure variables explain more variance than traditional variables, then this paper would be a call to further research in this area. In examining this research question in a retail context, we find that knowledge structure variables explain 50.2 percent of the variance in sales performance. We also find that variance explained by knowledge structures is significantly different based on gender. The impact of knowledge structures on performance was higher for men than for women. The models using education demonstrated smaller differences.

Automatic labelling of topic models learned from Twitter by summarisation

Latent topics derived by topic models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) are the result of hidden thematic structures which provide further insights into the data. The automatic labelling of such topics derived from social media poses however new challenges since topics may characterise novel events happening in the real world. Existing automatic topic labelling approaches which depend on external knowledge sources become less applicable here since relevant articles/concepts of the extracted topics may not exist in external sources. In this paper we propose to address the problem of automatic labelling of latent topics learned from Twitter as a summarisation problem. We introduce a framework which apply summarisation algorithms to generate topic labels. These algorithms are independent of external sources and only rely on the identification of dominant terms in documents related to the latent topic. We compare the efficiency of existing state of the art summarisation algorithms. Our results suggest that summarisation algorithms generate better topic labels which capture event-related context compared to the top-n terms returned by LDA. © 2014 Association for Computational Linguistics.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

Different coordination modes for disulfoxides towards diorganotin(IV) dichlorides. X-ray crystal structures of 1,2-cis-bis-(phenylsulfinyl)ethene (rac-,cis-cbpse) and adducts [{Ph2SnCl2(meso-bpse)}n] and [{n-Bu2SnCl2(pdtd)}2]

The reactions of meso-1,2-bis(phenylsulfinyl)ethane (meso-bpse) with Ph2SnCl2, 2-phenyl-1,3-dithiane trans-1-trans-3-dioxide (pdtd) with n-Bu2SnCl2 and 1,2-cis-bis-(phenylsulfinyl)ethene (rac-,cis-cbpse) with Ph2SnCl2, in 1:1 molar ratio, yielded [{Ph2SnCl2(meso-bpse)}n], [{n-Bu2SnCl2(pdtd)}2] and [{Ph2SnCl2(rac,cis-cbpse)}x] (x = 2 or n), respectively. All adducts were studied by IR, Mössbauer and 119Sn NMR spectroscopic methods, elemental analysis and single crystal X-ray diffractometry. The X-ray crystal structure of [{Ph2SnCl2(meso-bpse)}n] revealed the occurrence of infinite chains in which the tin(IV) atoms appear in a distorted octahedral geometry with Cl atoms in cis and Ph groups in trans positions. The X-ray crystal structure of [{n-Bu2SnCl2(pdtd)}2] revealed discrete centrosymmetric dimeric species in which the tin(IV) atoms possess a distorted octahedral geometry with bridging disulfoxides in cis and n-butyl moieties in trans positions. The spectroscopic data indicated that the adduct containing the rac,cis-cbpse ligand can be dimeric or polymeric. The X-ray structural analysis of the free rac-,cis-cbpse sulfoxide revealed that the crystals belong to the C2/c space group.

The role of disulfide bridges in the 3-D structures of the antimicrobial peptides gomesin and protegrin-1: a molecular dynamics study

Some antimicrobial peptides have a broad spectrum of action against many different kinds of microorganisms. Gomesin and protegrin-1 are examples of such antimicrobial peptides, and they were studied by molecular dynamics in this research. Both have a beta-hairpin conformation stabilized by two disulfide bridges and are active against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, as well as fungi. In this study, the role of the disulfide bridge in the maintenance of the tertiary peptide structure of protegrin-1 and gomesin is analyzed by the structural characteristics of these peptides and two of their respective variants, gomy4 and proty4, in which the four cysteines are replaced by four tyrosine residues. The absence of disulfide bridges in gomy4 and proty4 is compensated by overall reinforcement of the original hydrogen bonds and extra attractive interactions between the aromatic rings of the tyrosine residues. The net effects on the variants with respect to the corresponding natural peptides are: i) maintenance of the original beta-hairpin conformation, with great structural similarities between the mutant and the corresponding natural peptide; ii) combination of positive F and. Ramachandran angles within the hairpin head region with a qualitative change to a combination of positive (F) and negative (.) angles, and iii) significant increase in structural flexibility. Experimental facts about the antimicrobial activity of the gomesin and protegrin-1 variants have also been established here, in the hope that the detailed data provided in the present study may be useful for understanding the mechanism of action of these peptides.

Comparison of different models to estimate genetic parameters for carcass traits in a commercial broiler line

The effect of genetic and non-genetic factors for carcass, breast meat and leg weights, and yields of a commercial broiler line were investigated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering four different animal models, including or excluding maternal genetic effect with covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects, and maternal permanent environmental effect. The likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most adequate model for each trait. For carcass, breast, and leg weight, and for carcass and breast yield, maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects as well as the covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects were significant. The estimates of direct and maternal heritability were 0.17 and 0.04 for carcass weight, 0.26 and 0.06 for breast weight, 0.22 and 0.02 for leg weight, 0.32 and 0.02 for carcass yield, and 0.52 and 0.04 for breast yield, respectively. For leg yield, maternal permanent environmental effect was important, in addition to direct genetic effects. For that trait, direct heritability and maternal permanent environmental variance as a proportion of the phenotypic variance were 0.43 and 0.02, respectively. The results indicate that ignoring maternal effects in the models, even though they were of small magnitude (0.02 to 0.06), tended to overestimate direct genetic variance and heritability for all traits.

Theoretical investigation of atomic and electronic structures of Ga(2)O(3)(ZnO)(6)

Transparent conducting oxides (TCO) are widely used in technological applications ranging from photovoltaics to thin-film transparent field-effect transistors. In this work we report a first-principles investigation, based on density-functional theory, of the atomic and electronic properties of Ga(2)O(3)(ZnO)(6) (GZO(6)), which is a promising candidate to be used as host oxide for wide band gap TCO applications. We identify a low-energy configuration for the coherent distribution of the Ga and Zn atoms in the cation positions within the experimentally reported orthorhombic GZO(6) structure. Four Ga atoms are located in four-fold sites, while the remaining 12 Ga atoms in the unit cell form four shared Ga agglomerates (a motif of four atoms). The Zn atoms are distributed in the remaining cation sites with effective coordination numbers from 3.90 to 4.50. Furthermore, we identify the natural formation of twin-boundaries in GZO(6), which can explain the zigzag modulations observed experimentally by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy in GZO(n) (n=9). Due to the intrinsic twin-boundary formation, polarity inversion in the ZnO tetrahedrons is present which is facilitated by the formation of the Ga agglomerates. Our analysis shows that the formation of fourfold Ga sites and Ga agglomerates are stabilized by the electronic octet rule, while the distribution of Ga atoms and the formation of the twin-boundary help alleviate excess strain. Finally we identify that the electronic properties of GZO(6) are essentially determined by the electronic properties of ZnO, i.e., there are slight changes in the band gap and optical absorption properties.

Bulk structures of PtO and PtO(2) from density functional calculations

Platinum plays an important role in catalysis and electrochemistry, and it is known that the direct interaction of oxygen with Pt surfaces can lead to the formation of platinum oxides (PtO(x)), which can affect the reactivity. To contribute to the atomistic understanding of the atomic structure of PtO(x), we report a density functional theory study of the atomic structure of bulk PtO(x) (1 <= x <= 2). From our calculations, we identified a lowest-energy structure (GeS type, space group Pnma) for PtO, which is 0.181 eV lower in energy than the structure suggested by W. J. Moore and L. Pauling [J. Am. Chem. Soc. 63, 1392 (1941)] (PtS type). Furthermore, two atomic structures were identified for PtO(2), which are almost degenerate in energy with the lowest-energy structure reported so far for PtO(2) (CaCl(2) type). Based on our results and analysis, we suggest that Pt and O atoms tend to form octahedron motifs in PtO(x) even at lower O composition by the formation of Pt-Pt bonds.