962 resultados para age structure


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Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

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O processo de envelhecimento populacional, ainda que amplamente reconhecido como uma das principais conquistas do século XX engendra o desafio de assegurar que o processo de desenvolvimento ocorra com base em princípios capazes de garantir a dignidade humana e a equidade entre os grupos etários na partilha dos recursos, direitos e responsabilidades sociais. Além dos desafios impostos aos já tradicionais programas constantes dos atuais sistemas de seguridade social, o envelhecimento populacional acrescenta uma nova questão ou risco social: os cuidados de longa duração, demandados pelos idosos com perda de capacidade instrumental e/ou funcional para lidar com as atividades do cotidiano. Por capacidade instrumental pode-se entender a capacidade para a realização de atividades relacionadas a, por exemplo: preparar refeições, fazer compras no mercado, ir ao banco, cuidar da casa etc. Capacidade funcional, por sua vez, refere-se às seguintes atividades: alimentar-se, banhar-se, caminhar distâncias curtas, vestir-se etc. A preocupação com os cuidados de longa duração dos idosos nos países desenvolvidos, onde o processo de envelhecimento populacional já se encontra mais avançado, surgiu como uma necessidade de se separar os custos crescentes com o tratamento dos idosos dos demais gastos com saúde. Os custos, tangíveis ou não, envolvidos na atividade de cuidar/assistir aos idosos tendem a aumentar em função da entrada maciça das mulheres no mercado de trabalho e das mudanças nos contratos de gênero, sugerindo crescentes dificuldades para que as famílias arquem com a responsabilidade pelo cuidado de seus idosos. Em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, essa questão é agravada por se somar a uma ampla lista a ser respondida pelos sistemas de seguridade social, tais como a pobreza, a exclusão de crescentes contingentes da população e o nível de desigualdade vigente. No Brasil, para que se possa avançar no debate sobre os cuidados de longa duração voltados para uma população idosa crescente, faz-se necessário rediscutir e redefinir uma série de parâmetros do atual sistema de seguridade social, em especial, a expressiva parcela de trabalhadores informais alijados do mesmo. O precário equilíbrio, ou resultado, do sistema de seguridade social brasileiro precisa ser revisto e analisado a luz das tendências demográficas, sociais e econômicas que se vislumbram para os próximos 20 ou 30 anos. Somente após o reequacionamento do sistema é possível pensar a incorporação desta nova e latente demanda da sociedade brasileira.

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The report describes the activities of the Institute during the year 1989, which include the following: The Zambia/Zimbabwe Lake Kariba Fisheries Research and Development Project; the pilot cage culture project; cooperative development; an economic evaluation of the Kariba International Tiger Fish Tournament; hydroacoustic surveys in Lake Kariba; and, the age structure and population dynamics of the sardine Limnothrissa miodon in Lake Kariba.

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The annual ovarian cycle, mode of maturation, age at maturity, and potential fecundity of female Rikuzen sole (Dexistes rikuzenius) from the North Pacific Ocean off the coast of Japan were studied by 1) histological examination of the gonads, 2) measurement and observation of the oocytes, and 3) by otolith aging. The results indicated that ovulation occurs from September to December and peaks between September and October. Vitellogenesis began again soon after the end of the current season. Maturity was divided into eight phases on the basis of oocyte developmental stages. Mature ovaries contained developing oocytes and postovulatory follicles but no recruiting oocytes, indicating that this species has group-synchronous ovaries and is a multiple spawner. Almost all females matured first at an age of 1+ year and spawned every year until at least age 8+ years. Potential fecundity increased exponentially with body length and the most fecund fish had 15 times as many oocytes as the least fecund fish. Potential fecundity and relative fecundity were both positively correlated with age from 1 to 6+ years, but were negatively correlated, probably because of senescence, in fish over 7 years. These results emphasize that the total productivity of a D. rikuzenius population depends not only on the biomass of females older than 1+ but also on the age structure of the population.

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Size distribution within re- ported landings is an important aspect of northern Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp stock assessments. It reflects shrimp population characteristics such as numerical abundance of various sizes, age structure, and vital rates (e.g. recruitment, growth, and mortality), as well as effects of fishing, fishing power, fishing practices, sampling, size-grading, etc. The usual measure of shrimp size in archived landings data is count (C) the number of shrimp tails (abdomen or edible portion) per pound (0.4536 kg). Shrimp are marketed and landings reported in pounds within tail count categories. Statistically, these count categories are count class intervals or bins with upper and lower limits expressed in C. Count categories vary in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence within the landings. The upper and lower limits of most count class intervals can be transformed to lower and upper limits (respectively) of class intervals expressed in pounds per shrimp tail, w, the reciprocal of C (i.e. w = 1/C). Age based stock assessments have relied on various algorithms to estimate numbers of shrimp from pounds landed within count categories. These algorithms required un- derlying explicit or implicit assumptions about the distribution of C or w. However, no attempts were made to assess the actual distribution of C or w. Therefore, validity of the algorithms and assumptions could not be determined. When different algorithms were applied to landings within the same size categories, they produced different estimates of numbers of shrimp. This paper demonstrates a method of simulating the distribution of w in reported biological year landings of shrimp. We used, as examples, landings of brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the northern Gulf of Mexico fishery in biological years 1986–2006. Brown shrimp biological year, Ti, is defined as beginning on 1 May of the same calendar year as Ti and ending on 30 April of the next calendar year, where subscript i is the place marker for biological year. Biological year landings encompass most if not all of the brown shrimp life cycle and life span. Simulated distributions of w reflect all factors influencing sizes of brown shrimp in the landings within a given biological year. Our method does not require a priori assumptions about the parent distributions of w or C, and it takes into account the variability in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence of count categories within the landings. Simulated biological year distributions of w can be transformed to equivalent distributions of C. Our method may be useful in future testing of previously applied algorithms and development of new estimators based on statistical estimation theory and the underlying distribution of w or C. We also examine some applications of biological year distributions of w, and additional variables derived from them.

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The summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, is overexploited and is currently at very low levels of abundance. This is reflected in the compressed age structure of the population and the low catches in both commercial and recreational fisheries. Declining habitat quantity and quality may be contributing to these declines, however we lack a thorough understanding of the role of habitats in the population dynamics of this species. Stock structure is unresolved and current interpretations, depending on the technique and study area, suggest that there may be two or three spawning populations. If so, these stocks may have differing habitat requirements. In response to this lack of knowledge, this document summarizes and synthesizes the available information on summer flounder habitat in all life history stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults) and identifies areas where further research is needed. Several levels of investigation were conducted in order to produce this document. First, an extensive search for summer flounder habitat information was made, which included both the primary and gray literature as well as unanalyzed data. Second, state and federal fisheries biologists and resource managers in all states within the primary range of summer flounder (Massachusetts to Florida) were interviewed along with a number of fish ecologists and summer flounder experts from the academic and private sectors. Finally, information from all sources was analyzed and synthesized to form a coherent overview. This document first presents an overview of the economic importance and current status of summer flounder (Chapter 1). It then summarizes our present state of knowledge of summer flounder distribution, life history patterns and stock identification (Chapter 2). This is followed by a synopsis of habitat requirements during each life history stage. For convenience, this is presented by general habitat as offshore eggs (Chapter 3), offshore larvae (Chapter 4), estuarine larvae (Chapter 5), estuarine juveniles (Chapter 6), offshore juveniles (Chapter 7) and estuarine and offshore adults (Chapter 8). In several instances, previously undigested data sets are analyzed to provide more detailed information, especially for estuarine juveniles. The information is then discussed in terms of its relevance to resource managers (Chapter 9).

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本文是中国科学院“八五”重大项目:“生物多样性保护与持续利用的生物学基础”中的子课题“中国濒危特有动、植物保护生物学及种群生存力分析”的一部分。本文研究了我国一级保护植物珙桐(Davidia involucrata Baill.)在种群生态学、群落生态学各方面的特征,主要包括其天然分布,群落类型,种群空间分布格局,植株生长规律,种群生物量结构及变化规律,元素化学成份,种群年龄结构,数量统计及生存力分析等。 研究结果表明:珙桐分布区是连续的,其变种光叶珙桐(Davidia involucrata var. vilmoriniana (Dode) wanger)的分布区存在间断;珙桐群落可依优势种不同分为多种类型,但都属于亚热带中山落叶——常绿阔叶混交林类型;群落区系成份复杂,地理成份以北温带及东亚成分占绝对优势:种群空间分布格局无论在不同群落中还是在不同发育阶段中均属集群分布:植株胸径、树高及材积生长符合Logistic方程:种群生物量随群落类型不同而有较大差异,种群增长规律符合Logistic增长;种群年龄结构稳定,但实生苗的匮乏对种群更新不利:种群存活曲线属Deevy I型。对影响种群生存力的因素分析表明,主要的因素有系统压力和环境因素。

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银杉(Cathaya argyrophylla)是我国特有的珍贵植物,被认为处于濒危状态。本文结合前人的研究,通过大量的野外调查,弄清了银杉的种质资源现状,分析银杉的群落特征,在此基础上重点研究了银杉种群的主要特征。 研究表明,现存银杉间断分布于我国亚热带山地,形成4个集结地,资源总量(株高大于1米者)不占4000棵。现有银杉群落处于演替的早、中期阶段,到演替后期,银杉将被组成地带性植被的优势阔叶树种取代。 银杉种群的空间分布格局与银杉的生物学特性及微环境有关。在老龄种群内,容易产生林窗,银杉在林窗形成异龄群聚,以寻求充足的光照和营养支持,种群多表现为集群分布;在群落内微环境异质性较明显时,也导致集群分布。在各种银杉群落中,就银杉种群而言,光因子可能是影响其分布格局的主导因子。银杉种群集群分布的格局规模虽在和群落种群间有明显差异,但大多在面积小于16平方米的较小尺度下发生。 银杉各群落类型中银杉种群年龄化加剧的现象,有些种群在某些龄组出现断层。从年龄结构看,有些银杉种群处于被阔叶树种更替的境地。 林窗干扰对银杉种群的更新意义重大,在林窗内和非林窗银杉群落内,银杉种群的重要值均为最大;银杉幼树在林窗内的高生长量普遍大于荫蔽的林冠下,这些充分说明银杉是典型的林窗更新方式。 银杉结实有明显的大小年之分,一般在2-3个小年之后为1-2个大年,母树结实量不与树龄成正相关,在植株间差别很大。每个球果出种量平均为4.267粒,无种子的球果占比重达12.2%。饱满种子的平均重量仅为0.0197克,远远低于乔木树种种子的平均水平。林地内自然善状况下播种,种子发芽率仅为21%,松土后播种可使发芽率加倍。种子宜于湿沙贮藏,干藏导致种子发芽率大幅度下降。松鼠是长期危害球果的主要动物,其危害率可达15%。 对银杉生长规律的研究发现,幼龄银杉在全光照下和荫蔽林冠下比在林窗内高生长都要缓慢;成年银杉高生长盛期在130年前出现;银杉种群地上部分生物量在大部分群落类型间介于62000-91000千克/公顷之间。 第四纪冰川时期,强烈的气候变迁,造成银杉种群的大尺度减少,并导致其间断分布于我国亚热带山地;冰后期以来的气候波动及近代剧烈的人类活动使已经片断化的银杉种群数量进一步下降。从而导致银杉遗传多样性低和生殖障碍大,后者反过来又进一步引起种群数量下降和分布区缩小,形成恶性循环,造成银杉濒危。

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疏花水柏枝(Myricaria laxiflora(Franch.)P.Y.Zhang et Y.J.Zhang)是我国三峡特有植物,是目前发现的唯一一种三峡水库蓄水后将被全部淹没的高等植物物种。本文结合前人的研究,通过详细的野外调查,摸清了疏花水柏枝的野生种群的分布及自然环境状况,较为全面、系统地研究了其生物学、群落学、种群学、生殖生态学等各方面的特征。最后,对其繁殖技术进行了着重研究,并提出了疏花水柏枝的的保护对策。 疏花水柏枝分布于我国亚热带长江三峡地区,位于东经109-0 32’~110-042、北纬30-0 59’~ 31-05’,海拔70 - 150米的范围内。疏花水柏枝为常绿灌木,具有很强的耐水淹的特性。其群落的植物区系组成中,以北温带分布和世界分布属为主,在各群落中疏花水柏枝均为建群种。在较小的尺度上(间距1m或更小),各群落中的疏花水柏枝种群均表现为聚集分布;在较大的尺度上(间距1.44m或更大),砾质地表的几个群落中疏花水柏枝种群表现为聚集分布,而沙质地表的群落中则表现为随机分布;幼苗在各种尺度上均表现为强烈的聚集分布。不同的群落中,疏花水柏枝种群的生物量有很大差异,变化范围为2,13 lt/hm2~5.340t/hm2,平均值为3.976t/hm2。疏花水柏枝的种群总体年龄结构比较稳定,但在不同的群落中差异较大。疏花水柏枝的的结实率高达95.12%,单位面积出种量平均为1.242×1()9粒/hm2。种子细小,寿命较短,新鲜饱满种子发芽率可达100%。冬季干旱和夏季水淹导致幼苗大量死亡。疏花水柏枝的扦插繁殖可获得较高的生根率,一年生插条的生根率明显高于多年生的插条。扦插苗移栽的成活率较高,并于第二年即可开花结实。种子繁殖也可获得较高的出苗率,但幼苗的死亡率很高。为保护这个物种,首先应加强宣传力度,进一步加强繁殖技术的研究,各北京植物园应大量引种栽培,并对其进行全面深入的研究,最终将其完全回归大自然。

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A varve chronology with annual resolution (AD 1117-1992) has been developed recently for Santa Barbara Basin. Varve thickness and water content show an exponential trend consistent with expected patterns in the presence of sediment compaction over time. Annual varve thickness was decomposed into orthogonal components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to identify and retrieve inter-decadal oscillations. ... This suggests a connection with global-scale decadal cycles identified in the subtropical Pacific gyre circulation and, possibly, with solar-driven phenomena. The near-1600 AD event coincides with (a) a similarly sudden change of state in nearby Santa Monica Basin that triggered the onset of anoxic conditions and the preservation of laminated sediments, (b) an extreme drought over the American Southwest, (c) a transformation of the age structure in a number of forest populations throughout Arizona and New Mexico. Total organic carbon burial flux in Santa Barbara Basin varves also shows a marked change after AD 1600. A possible climatic link is proposed that involves pathways for moisture transport in the Southwest at decadal and longer time scales.

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Feeding habits of many animals have been used widely in animal classifications. This is so, because the type of diet an organism requires demands structural specialisation which will utilise the available resource. Many animals may however have many structural modifications to enable them to be described as omnivourous or generalised feeders such as H. empodisma and H. riponianus (GREENWOOD 1960) which may show varying degrees of structural and adaptational intermediacy between two trophic groups. Generally, however, the diet of many animals including fish changes as the animal grow larger. The change in structural modifications is usually correlated with changes in the diet. In fishes the change may involve change from tricuspid to biscuspid and finally to unicuspid type of teeth. The degree of modification in the structure depends on the diet, thus Haplochromis that feeds on soft tissues of snails only requires modifications in oral dentition while Haplochromis that feeds on both soft tissues and shells of snails require modification in the lower pharyngeal bone for grinding purposes. Other modifications connected with food utilisation may be located in the alimentary canal. (I) The fish species that are commercially exploited are Protopterus aethiopicus, Clarias mossambicus, Tilapia esculenta, Tilapia amphimelas and Tilapia hybrids. The other fish species present in the lake but not commercially exploited are: Gnathonemus sp. Alestes sp. Labeo sp., Barbus paludinoses, Barbus jacksoni, Barbus lineomaculatus, Barbus regersi, Leptogrlanis sp., Schilbe sp., Haplochromis spp. and Hemihaplochromis sp. (2) Protopterus sp. and Clarias sp. are mostly caught with hooks on long lines. There has been a steady increase in number of hooks on the lake. Since the stocks of Protopterus and C/arias in the lake have a limit, we should control the number of hooks used by each of the fishermen in order to avoid overharvesting. (3) All the previous studies on Lake Kitangiri fisheries suggested the use of gill nets with mesh size greater than 88.9 mm in order to avoid the capture of immature Ti/apia spp. But if the fishermen are to obtain economic gains from the fishery, the optimum mesh size for use is 88.9 -101.6 mm. (4) The gillnet is a passive gear with very beneficial selective characteristics. Unfortunately the drive-in fishery which exists on Lake Kitangiri more or less destroys the gillnet selectivity characteristics. It is therefore recommended that the beating of water with poles be discouraged and stopped. (5) There is need for provision of stable fishing canoes to replace the unstable bottle palm dug-out canoes which are currently being used and which are very risky to operate. (6) The fish processing facilities on Lake Kitangiri are still inadequate. Most of the fish is sun dried, Since sun drying is very difficult during the rainy season, most fishermen carry out intensive fishing during the dry season, Concentrating most of the fishing effort in anyone season instead of spreading evenly this effort over the whole year could damage the age structure of the exploitable stocks. (7) There are considerable fluctuations in the volume of water of the lake. The feasibility of regulating the water loss through the effluent Sibiti river should be investigated by the Water Development Department. (8) Damming the Sibiti river is an expensive undertaking and therefore, the Rural Development Bank of Tanzania should be asked to assess the economic feasibility of such a project.

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This study was conducted to determine reproduction characteristics, diet regime, age structure and population dynamics parameters of the vimba vimba persa (Pallas, 1811) in Mazandaran waters of the Caspian Sea, from October 2008 to September 2009. A total of 994 specimens were monthly collected by beach seine and cast net from six fish landings of Ramsar, Tonekabon, Chaloos, Mahmood Abad, Sari and Behshahr. Biometric characters were measured for each specimen at the laboratory. Scales were used for age determination. Sex determination and fecundity were determined. Population dynamic parameters as well as stock assessment including cohort analysis were estimated using FISAT software. The finding showed that the mean of fork length and body weight of the Caspian Vimba were 168.4±2.6 mm and 71.94±32.24 g respectively. Strong correlation was found between these two variables (a= 0.012; b = 3.047; r2 = 0.955). 92 specimens were studied from the fecundity point of view. This species was found to have more abundance in spring (esp. Apr-May). The samples composed of 397(42.6%) male, 537(57.4%) female; Overall sex ratio (M: F =1: 1.35) was significantly different from the expected 1:1 ratio (p ≤0.05). The advanced stages of maturity (4th & 5th) were found in April and May. The highest Gonadosomatic Index in female was in May and the lowest one was in July. This fish is therefore a spring spawner. The maximum absolute and relative fecundities were 34640 and 260.9, respectively; the minimum absolute and relative fecundities were 5400 and 94.5 respectively. The averages of absolute and relative fecundities were 17198±7710 and 171.85±48.8, respectively. Coefficient vacuity index was 59.2% which indicates that this fish is mesophagous. Among of living creature consumes by Caspian Vimba mollusks, 76 arthropods, worms, plants, detritus and fishes were found 32.9% , 26.7% , 13.4% , 17% , 4.4% and 1.6% respectively. The infinite fork lengths were 261 mm for females, 25mm for males and 261 mm for both sexes respectively. For population growth and mortality parameters; K ( 0.28 per year for both sexes, 0.3 per year for males, 0.33 per year for females); t0 ( -0.65 year for both sexes, -0.23 year in females, -0.51 year in males ); Φ' ( 2.28 ); Z ( 0.98 per year ); M ( 0.59 per year); F ( 0.39 per year) and Exploitation coefficient was 0.4. The analysis showed that total biomass and MSY were 1336 and 528.8 tonnes respectively.

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Populations of kilka in the Caspian Sea have important role in the food chain. This study was conducted to determine population parameters of three species of kilka in the south of the Caspian Sea, during 2006-2007. Mean length was 102.4±9.7 mm for common kilka, 117.8±6.9 mm for anchovy and 119.5±10.9 mm for bigeye. The relationship between length and weight indicated the negative allometric growth in the all three species. Mean age for common kilka, anchovy and bigeye were 3.6, 4.6 and 4.6 years, respectively. Sex ratio (M:F) were 0.52:1 for anchovy, 0.60:1 for common kilka and 1.60:1 for bigeye. The value of growth coefficient (K) was the highest (0.321) for the common kilka, (0.267) for the bigeye, and the lowest for the anchovy kilka (0.245). Total mortality estimated from the descending of the catch curve using the age structure, Z=1.280 yr-1 for common kilka, Z=1.067 yr-1 for anchovy, and Z=1.015 yr-1 for bigeye. Natural mortality (M) were estimated using Pauly formula as M=0.622, M=0.537 and M=0.503 per year for common kilka, bigeye and anchovy, respectively. Value of fishing mortality (F) were estimated from Z and M, as F=0.658 for common kilka, F=0.564 for anchovy and F=0.478 for bigeye. The exploitation rate (E) were estimated E=0.514 for common kilka, E=0.528 for anchovy and E= 0.471 for bigeye. The estimate of MCY (Maximum Constant Yield) was calculated using the more reliable time series of commercial catch data from 2001-2007, which resulted in an estimate of MCY for the kilka fishery of 14100 tonnes.

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The Central Yangtze ecoregion in China includes a number of lakes, but these have been greatly affected by human activities over the past several decades, resulting in severe loss of biodiversity. In this paper, we document the present distribution of the major lakes and the changes in size that have taken place over the past 50 years, using remote sensing data and historical observations of land cover in the region. We also provide an overview of the changes in species richness, community composition, population size and age structure, and individual body size of aquatic plants, fishes, and waterfowl in these lakes. The overall species richness of aquatic plants found in eight major lakes has decreased substantially during the study period. Community composition has also been greatly altered, as have population size and age and individual body size in some species. These changes are largely attributed to the integrated effects of lake degradation, the construction of large hydroelectric dams, the establishment of nature reserves, and lake restoration practices.

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Four microsatellites were used to examine the genetic variability of the spawning stocks of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis, from the Yangtze River sampled over a 3-year period (1999-2001). Within 60 individuals, a total of 28 alleles were detected over four polymorphic microsatellite loci. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 4 to 15, with an average allele number of 7. The number of genotypes per locus ranged from 6 to 41. The genetic diversity of four microsatellite loci varied from 0.34 to 0.67, with an average value of 0.54. For the four microsatellite loci, the deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was mainly due to null alleles. The mean number of alleles per locus and the mean heterozygosity were lower than the average values known for anadromous fishes. Fish were clustered according to their microsatellite characteristics using an unsupervised 'Artificial Neural Networks' method entitled 'Self-organizing Map'. The results revealed no significant genetic differentiation considering genetic distance among samples collected during different years. Lack of heterogeneity among different annual groups of spawning stocks was explained by the complex age structure (from 8 to 27 years for males and 12 to 35 years for females) of Chinese sturgeon, leading to formulate an hypothesis about the maintenance of genetic diversity and stability in long-lived animals.