Using mathematical models to predict the development of aircraft cabin fires

Computer based mathematical models describing aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost involved in performing large-scale fire experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be prohibitively high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a safe and viable reality. By describing the present capabilities and limitations of aircraft fire models, this paper will examine the future development of these models in the areas of large scale applications through parallel computing, combustion modelling and extinguishment modelling.

Conditional cash transfer programs and the representations of poverty in Bolivia and Peru

Bolivia and Peru adopted the same instruments of social policy —conditional cash transfer programs— to solve the same public problems under different political regimes. By means of the qualitative methodology of discourse analysis, this paper studies the representations of poverty and State made by key actors of those social programs. Underlying more differences than similarities, one demonstrates that the same social policy is linked to opposite social representations of poverty and the State role in every country. The main explanation for this is, far from being imposed by international organizations, those programs are adopted and adapted by each political regime.

The systematic development of an innovative DVD to raise awareness of preconception care

The purpose of this article is to describe the design, development and process evaluation of a preconception counselling resource (a DVD) for women with pre-gestational diabetes. DVD design and development centred on two key stakeholders ('DVD user group' and 'professional advisory group') working alongside a professional multimedia company. The DVD user group provided feedback on preferred DVD style, and informed modifications and improvements. The professional advisory group prepared the script, and ensured content and face validity. Evaluation of the DVD's acceptability and usefulness was assessed among women with diabetes via a postal questionnaire. Development phase: the resulting DVD is a 45-minute programme with three parts, featuring eight women with diabetes sharing their views and experiences, alongside an evidence-based commentary. The programme focuses on the importance of preventing an unplanned pregnancy (highlighting contraception) and on essential planning advice. Evaluation phase: 97 women (89 with type 1 and 8 with type 2 diabetes) evaluated the DVD using a rating scale of 0-10. Mean (SD) scores were: 9.1 (1.3) for quality; 9.0 (1.4) for content; 8.8 (1.5) for interest; 8.7 (1.8) for usefulness; 7.8 (2.2) for knowledge acquisition; and 8.0 (2.1) for knowledge confirmation. This combined user and multi-professional advisory group approach has produced an innovative and highly acceptable preconception counselling resource for women with diabetes. The development process and outcome evaluation are an important point of reference for future educational programmes. Future research will evaluate the impact of this preconception counselling resource on pregnancy planning indicators and pregnancy outcome.

Video clip: Understanding ‘Wellbeing’ in the Lives of Adolescents with Disabilities

This short (2 minute) digital media clip was designed in consultation with an advisory group of young people with disabilities, as a means of providing information about a research project to potential participants. This format was used to overcome barriers whereby written information may not have been appropriate to the young person’s needs. It also allowed the researchers to introduce themselves to the young people and become familiar to them before face-to-face meeting.

Transition from Children’s to Adult Services forYoung People with Life-limiting Conditions: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey in Northern Ireland

Research aims: 
To describe service provision for the transition from children’s to adult services for young people with life-limiting conditions in Northern Ireland, and to identify organisational factors that promote or inhibit effective transition. 
Study population: 
Health, social, educational and charitable organisations providing transition services to young people with life-limiting conditions in Northern Ireland. 
Study design and methods: 
A questionnaire has been developed by the research team drawing on examples from the literature and the advice of an expert advisory group. The questionnaire was piloted with clinicians,academics and researchers in June 2013. The questionnaire focuses on components of practice which may promote continuity in the transition from child to adult care for young people with a life-limiting condition. The survey will be distributed throughout Northern Ireland to an estimated 75 organisations, following the Dillman total design survey method. Numerical data will be analysed using PASW Statistical software to generate descriptive statistics along with a thematic analysis of data generated by open-ended questions. 
Results and interpretations: 
The survey will provide a description of services, transition policies, approaches to managing transition, categories of service users, the ages at which transition starts and completes, experiences with minority ethnic groups, the input of service users to the process, organisational factors promoting or hindering effective transition, links between services, and service providers’ recommendations for improvements in services.The outcomes will be an overview of the transition services currently provided in Northern Ireland identifying models of good practice and the key factors influencing the quality, safety and continuity of care. Survey results are due early in 2014.

PET/CT imaging for target volume delineation in curative intent radiotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer: IAEA consensus report 2014

This document describes best practice and evidence based recommendations for the use of FDG-PET/CT for the purposes of radiotherapy target volume delineation (TVD) for curative intent treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). These recommendations have been written by an expert advisory group, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to facilitate a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) aiming to improve the applications of PET based radiation treatment planning (RTP) in low and middle income countries. These guidelines can be applied in routine clinical practice of radiotherapy TVD, for NSCLC patients treated with concurrent chemoradiation or radiotherapy alone, where FDG is used, and where a calibrated PET camera system equipped for RTP patient positioning is available. Recommendations are provided for PET and CT image visualization and interpretation, and for tumor delineation using planning CT with and without breathing motion compensation.

Aquatic invasive alien species – top issues for their management. Outcomes from the IFI/EIFAAC conference “Freshwater Invasives – Networking for Strategy”

In November 2014, a new EU Regulation to address Invasive Alien Species (IAS) and protect biodiversity was published. This entered into force across the EU in January 2015. The aim of the Regulation is to ‘prevent the introduction of, control or eradicate alien species which threaten ecosystems, habitats or species’. In an effort to provide focus to the Regulation prior to its publishing and to identify the major issues relating to Invasive Alien Species in Europe, the views of invasive species experts from around the world were sought. These were consolidated at an international conference (Freshwater Invasives - Networking for Strategy (FINS)) that was held in Ireland in April 2013. A major outcome from this meeting of experts was the production of the Top 20 IAS issues that relate primarily to freshwater habitats but are also directly relevant to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. This list will support policy makers throughout the EU as preparations are made to implement this important piece of legislation. A further outcome from the conference was the formation of an expert IAS Advisory Group to support EIFAAC in its work on invasive species

National suicide prevention strategy for Afghanistan (NSPS)

RESUMO: Do suicídio no Afeganistão é uma prioridade de saúde pública. O Afeganistão é um país de baixo rendimento, emergindo de três décadas de conflitos. Há uma alta prevalência de sofrimento psicológico, perturbações mentais e abuso de substâncias. Existem várias questões sociais, tais como, desequilíbrio/violência de género, pobreza, atitudes e costumes obsoletos, rápidas mudanças sócio-culturais, violação dos direitos humanos e especialmente dos direitos das mulheres e das crianças. Estes fatores de risco contribuem para o aumento da vulnerabilidade da população em relação ao suicídio. A relativa alta taxa de suicídio no Afeganistão é especialmente significativa comparada com as taxas baixas em todos os países islâmicos. Os estudos mostraram predominância de suicídio nas mulheres (95%) e em pessoas jovens. Existe, por isso, uma necessidade urgente do país ter uma estratégia de prevenção do suicídio. A estratégia foi desenvolvida pela criação de um grupo técnico/ de assessoria multi-sectorial de diferentes intervenientes tais como governo, ONGs, agências doadoras, as famílias das vítimas e outraas partes interessadas. A estratégia baseia-se os seguintes valores chave:, respeito pelas diversidades; sensibilidade para as questões sócio-cultura-religiosa e de género; promoção da dignidade da sociedade; respeito pelos direitos humanoss.. Os 'seis pontos estratégicos' são: envolvimento das principais partes interessadas e criação de colaboração intersectorial coordenada; fornecimento de cuidados às pessoas que fazem tentativas de suicídio e às suas famílias; melhoria dos serviços para pessoas com doença mental e problemas psicossociais; promover uma comunicação e imagem adequada dos comportamentos suicidas, pelos meios de comunicação; reduzir o acesso aos meios de suicídio e coligir informação sobre as taxas de suicídio, os fatores de risco, os fatores protetores e as intervenções eficazes. A estratégia nacional de prevenção do suicídio será inicialmente implementada por 5 anos, com uma avaliação anual do plano de acção para entender os seus pontos fortes e limitações. Recomendações e sugestões serão incorporadas nos próxima planos anuais para uma intervenção eficaz. Um sistema de monitorização irá medir o progresso na implementação da estratégia.-----------------------------ABSTRACT: Suicide in Afghanistan is a public health priority. Afghanistan is a low-income country, emerging from three decades of conflicts. There is high prevalence of mental distress, mental disorders and substance abuse. There are multiple social issues, such as gender imbalance/violence, poverty, obsolete attitudes and customs, rapid social-cultural changes, human right violations, and especially women and children rights. These risk factors contribute to increase the vulnerability of the population for suicide. The relative high rate of suicide in Afghanistan is especially significant as the rates are low in all Islamic countries. Research studies have shown predominance of suicide in women (95%) and in young age people. There is an urgent need for the country to have a suicide prevention strategy. The strategy has been developed by establishing a multi-sectoral technical/advisory group of different stakeholders from government, NGOs, donor agencies, victim’s families, and interested parties. The strategy is based on the following key values, namely, respect for diversities; sensitiveness to socio-culture-religious and gender issues; promotion of the society dignity and respect for the human rights of people. The six ‘Strategic directions’ are: involving key stakeholders and creating coordinated inter-sectoral collaboration; providing after care for people making a suicide attempt and their families; improving services for people with mental disorders and psycho-social problems; promoting the safe reporting and image of suicidal behaviour by media; reducing access to the means of suicide and gathering information about suicide rates, risk factor, protective factors and effective interventions. The National Suicide Prevention Strategy will be initially implemented for 5 years, with an annual evaluation of the action plan to understand the strengths and limitations. Recommendations and suggestions will be incorporated into the next annual plans for effective intervention. A monitoring framework will measure progress in implementing the strategy.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Posters for Web Science DTC Industrial Day

These posters were created by Web Science MSc and PhD students as a discussion point with representatives from the DTC Industrial Advisory Group.

Changing community perceptions of 'place'

In May 2002 the Australian Department of Defence announced its intention to divest the Defence land at Portsea on the Mornington Peninsula, Victoria. At the same time nominations were invited for membership of the Community Reference Group (CRG) established as part of the Portsea Defence Land Master Planning Project. The author actively participated in this voluntary advisory group which provided input on matters of interest to the community relating to the project, provided a medium for information sharing and addressed the sometimes competing needs of different stakeholder groups (such as government, business and residents). A major role of the CRG was to provide a focus for community input on aspects of technical issues, particularly in relation to the planning for the future use of the site, flora and fauna issues, infrastructure provision, traffic and access management, heritage and archaeology, and the integration of the site with both the natural environment and existing community facilities, including the township of Portsea. The author's professional background in art and architectural history, in teaching and in research specifically in heritage related areas; her record of community work both in hands on work and in leadership positions, in Melbourne and on the Nepean Peninsula, enabled her to make a significant and useful contribution to the CRG in contributing to the understanding of the rich, diverse, multilayered cultural and natural heritage of the entire site.

Using this specific example, this paper examines the process of participating in Australian society through engaging communities - engaging women. It examines the invitation to participate, the nomination and selection process, the brief given to the community reference group, the development of the consultative process over the six months of deliberations, and the important role that women played in the project. It looks at what can be learned from the experience: how women in particular led the way in changing perceptions of place within the local community, and consequently in the broader framework of the project. It examines the success of the outcomes both in terms of the specific task of writing the Master Plan for the Portsea Defence site and of the process of community participation: the dynamic inter-relationships in the group; between the group and the consultants; between the group and the Department of Defence and between the group and the Federal Government. It comments reflectively and critically on the effectiveness of the whole process.

Review of first-year engineering and technology units based on student unit evaluations

There is recognition that the first-year of university study is a critical phase in the preparation, motivation and retention of science, mathematics,  engineering and technology (SMET) students. First-year provides the foundation/generic skills upon which students will base their undergraduate studies and professional practice; first-year is where many poorly prepared/at risk students will drop out and contribute to the poor student retention rate observed in the SMET disciplines; and first-year is when students may lose the motivation to pursue their chosen career direction if they find the studies at the commencement of their undergraduate program appear to bear no relationship to their intended career. In 2003, the Learning Resources Advisory Group of the Deakin University School of Engineering and Technology was requested to undertake a review of first-year units in the School’s programs. The information contained in anonymous unit evaluation questionnaires from the years 2000-2002 was used as the basis for analysing student perceptions of first-year units. In unit evaluations, students reported a wide range of issues that impacted negatively on their perception of the content and conduct of first-year units. It was noted that units service taught by other Schools form a significant element of the first-year of all of the Engineering and Technology undergraduate programs – typically 25 to 50 percent of the content. The significant influence of these units on the perceptions of the first-year of the School’s commencing students means that the School should exercise some control over the content and delivery of these units.

Evidence-based clinical policy: case report of a reproducible process to encourage understanding and evaluation of evidence

We report within a case study a reproducible process to facilitate the explicit incorporation of evidence by a multidisciplinary group into clinical policy development. To support the decision-making of a multidisciplinary Intersectoral Advisory Group (IAG) convened by the Royal Australasian College of Physicians Health Policy Unit, a systematic review of randomized controlled trials about environmental tobacco smoke and smoking cessation interventions in paediatric settings was first undertaken. As reported in detail here, IAG members were then formally engaged in a transparent and replicable process to understand and interpret the synthesized evidence and to proffer their independent reactions regarding policy, practice and research. Our intention was to ensure that all IAG members were democratically engaged and made aware of the available evidence. As clinical policy must engage stakeholder representatives from diverse backgrounds, a process to equalize understanding of the evidence and 'democratize' judgment about its implications is needed. Future research must then examine the benefits of such explicit steps when guidelines, in turn, are implemented. We hypothesize that changes to future practice will be more likely if processes undertaken to develop guidelines are transparent to clinicians and other target groups.

Guideline for the non-surgical management of hip and knee osteoarthritis

Introduction: Chronic disease is a major public health burden on Australian society. An increasing proportion of the population has risk factors for, or at least one, chronic disease, leading to increasing public health costs. Health service policy and delivery must not only address acute conditions, it must also effectively respond to the wide range of health and public service requirements of people with chronic illness.^1,2 Strong primary health care policy is an important foundation for a successful national health delivery system and long term management of public health, and is linked to practical outcomes including lower mortality, decreased hospitalisation and improved health outcomes.¹ National strategic health policy has recently given increased recognition to the importance of chronic disease management, with the Australian Federal Government endorsement of a number of initiatives for the prevention (or delay in onset), early detection and evidence based management of chronic disease, including osteoarthritis.^1,3
Chronic musculoskeletal conditions, including arthritis, account for over 4% of the national disease burden in terms of disability adjusted life years. Over 6 million Australians (almost one-third of the population) are estimated to have a chronic musculoskeletal disease; chronic musculoskeletal disease represents the main cause of long term pain and physical disability. In Australia, osteoarthritis is self reported by more than 1.4 million people (7.3% of the population4) and is the tenth most commonly managed problem in general practice.5 This number is set to rise as the elderly population grows. Osteoarthritis exerts a significant burden on the individual and the community through reduction in quality of life, diminished employment capacity and an increase in health care costs. For further details, refer to the Evidence to support the National Action Plan for Osteoarthritis, Rheumatoid Arthritis and Osteoporosis: Opportunities to improve health-related quality of life and reduce the burden of disease and disability (2004).⁶
As such, federal government health policy has identified arthritis as a National Health Priority Area and adopted a number of initiatives aimed at decreasing the burden of chronic disease and disability; raising awareness of preventive disease factors; providing access to evidence based knowledge; and improving the overall management of arthritis within the community.4 In 2002, all Australian health ministers designated arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions as Australia’s seventh National Health Priority Area. In response, a National Action Plan was developed in 2004 by the National Arthritis and Musculoskeletal Conditions Advisory Group (NAMSCAG).6 The aim of this document was to provide a blueprint for national initiatives to improve the health related quality of life of people living with osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis; reduce the cost and prevalence of these conditions; and reduce the impact on individuals, their carers and their communities within Australia. The National Action Plan was developed to complement both the National Chronic Disease Strategy – which is broader – and the National Service Improvement Framework for Osteoarthritis, Rheumatoid Arthritis and Osteoporosis, in addition to other national and state/ territory structures.

Influenza among the elderly in the Americas: A consensus statement

Influenza exacts a heavy burden on the elderly, a segment of the population that is estimated to experience rapid growth in the near future. In the past decade most developed and several developing countries have recommended influenza vaccination for those > 65 years of age. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal of 75% influenza vaccination coverage among the elderly by 2010, but it was not achieved. In 2011, the Technical Advisory Group at the Pan American Health Organization, Regional Office of WHO for the Americas, reiterated the influenza vaccine recommendation for older adults. Relatively little information has been compiled on the immunological aspect of aging or on reducing its impact, information particularly relevant for clinicians and gerontologist with firsthand experience confronting its effects. To fill this data gap, in 2012 the Americas Health Foundation (Washington, D.C., United States) and the nonprofit, Fighting Infectious Diseases in Emerging Countries (Miami, Florida, United States), convened a panel of Latin American clinicians and gerontologists with expertise in influenza to discuss key issues and develop a consensus statement. The major recommendations were to improve influenza surveillance throughout Latin America so that its impact can be quantified; and to conduct laboratory confirmation of influenza for all patients who have flu-like symptoms and are frail, immunosuppressed, have comorbidities, are respiratory compromised, or have been admitted to a hospital. The panel also noted that: since evidence for antivirals in the elderly is unclear, their use should be handled on a case-by-case basis; despite decreased immunological response, influenza vaccination in older adults is still crucial; indirect immunization strategies should be encouraged; and traditional infection control measures are essential in long-term care facilities.