The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Towards cost-sensitive adaptation: when is it worth updating your predictive model?

Our digital universe is rapidly expanding,more and more daily activities are digitally recorded, data arrives in streams, it needs to be analyzed in real time and may evolve over time. In the last decade many adaptive learning algorithms and prediction systems, which can automatically update themselves with the new incoming data, have been developed. The majority of those algorithms focus on improving the predictive performance and assume that model update is always desired as soon as possible and as frequently as possible. In this study we consider potential model update as an investment decision, which, as in the financial markets, should be taken only if a certain return on investment is expected. We introduce and motivate a new research problem for data streams ? cost-sensitive adaptation. We propose a reference framework for analyzing adaptation strategies in terms of costs and benefits. Our framework allows to characterize and decompose the costs of model updates, and to asses and interpret the gains in performance due to model adaptation for a given learning algorithm on a given prediction task. Our proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates how the framework can aid in analyzing and managing adaptation decisions in the chemical industry.

Zero attracting recursive least squares algorithms

The l1-norm sparsity constraint is a widely used technique for constructing sparse models. In this contribution, two zero-attracting recursive least squares algorithms, referred to as ZA-RLS-I and ZA-RLS-II, are derived by employing the l1-norm of parameter vector constraint to facilitate the model sparsity. In order to achieve a closed-form solution, the l1-norm of the parameter vector is approximated by an adaptively weighted l2-norm, in which the weighting factors are set as the inversion of the associated l1-norm of parameter estimates that are readily available in the adaptive learning environment. ZA-RLS-II is computationally more efficient than ZA-RLS-I by exploiting the known results from linear algebra as well as the sparsity of the system. The proposed algorithms are proven to converge, and adaptive sparse channel estimation is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Crossing cultural boundaries, flexible approaches and nurse education : a case study

Computer-mediated conferencing commonly is used to promote collaborative learning, including student learning across distance. This article presents the outcomes and experiences of Master of Nursing students in three countries using flexible learning approaches facilitated by the use of computer-mediated conferencing. It examines issues relating to support for global nursing education, presents an evaluation of one particular unit, and presents themes in the feedback from students about their experience. The authors report the findings in three categories: broadened perspectives, tackling the technology, and adaptive learning. Furthermore, the article offers suggestions for enhancing student-learning experiences when computer-mediated conferencing facilities are used.

Australian universities, government research and the application of climate change knowledge in Australian coastal zone management

One of the key issues in Australia for sustainable management of the coastal zone is that the science of climate change has not been widely used by decision-makers to inform coastal governance. There exist opportunities to enhance the dialogue between knowledge-makers and decision-makers, and universities have a key role to play in researching and fostering better linkages. At the heart of these linkages lies the principle of more informed engagement between historically disparate groups. In Australia, the new ‘Flagship’ research programme, funded by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), emphasizes their partnering with universities in a more systematic and collaborative manner than previously achieved in such research projects. In order to address sustainability in general and coastal adaptation to climate change in particular, interdisciplinary learning needs to occur between the social and natural sciences; also, transdisciplinary understanding of that interaction needs to be fully developed. New methods of communicative engagement such as computer visualizations and animations, together with deliberative techniques, can help policy-makers and planners reach a better understanding of the significance of the science of climate change impacts on the coast. Deeper engagement across historically disparate groups can lead to the development of epistemological and methodological synergies between social and natural scientists, adaptive learning, reflexive governance, and greater analytical and deliberative understanding among scientists, policymakers and the wider public. This understanding can lead in turn to enhance coastal governance for climate adaptation on the coast.

Comparison between response surface models and artificial neural networks in hydrologic forecasting

Developing an efficient and accurate hydrologic forecasting model is crucial to managing water resources and flooding issues. In this study, response surface (RS) models including multiple linear regression (MLR), quadratic response surface (QRS), and nonlinear response surface (NRS) were applied to daily runoff (e.g., discharge and water level) prediction. Two catchments, one in southeast China and the other in western Canada, were used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models. Their performances were compared with artificial neural network (ANN) models, trained with the learning algorithms of the gradient descent with adaptive learning rate (ANN-GDA) and Levenberg-Marquardt (ANN-LM). The performances of both RS and ANN in relation to the lags used in the input data, the length of the training samples, long-term (monthly and yearly) predictions, and peak value predictions were also analyzed. The results indicate that the QRS and NRS were able to obtain equally good performance in runoff prediction, as compared with ANN-GDA and ANN-LM, but require lower computational efforts. The RS models bring practical benefits in their application to hydrologic forecasting, particularly in the cases of short-term flood forecasting (e.g., hourly) due to fast training capability, and could be considered as an alternative to ANN

Neural network based glucose - insulin metabolism models for children with Type 1 diabetes

In this paper two models for the simulation of glucose-insulin metabolism of children with Type 1 diabetes are presented. The models are based on the combined use of Compartmental Models (CMs) and artificial Neural Networks (NNs). Data from children with Type 1 diabetes, stored in a database, have been used as input to the models. The data are taken from four children with Type 1 diabetes and contain information about glucose levels taken from continuous glucose monitoring system, insulin intake and food intake, along with corresponding time. The influences of taken insulin on plasma insulin concentration, as well as the effect of food intake on glucose input into the blood from the gut, are estimated from the CMs. The outputs of CMs, along with previous glucose measurements, are fed to a NN, which provides short-term prediction of glucose values. For comparative reasons two different NN architectures have been tested: a Feed-Forward NN (FFNN) trained with the back-propagation algorithm with adaptive learning rate and momentum, and a Recurrent NN (RNN), trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The results indicate that the best prediction performance can be achieved by the use of RNN.

J-Quizmaker

Lehrvideos erfreuen sich dank aktueller Entwicklungen im Bereich der Online-Lehre (Videoplattformen, MOOCs) auf der einen Seite und einer riesigen Auswahl sowie einer einfachen Produktion und Distribution auf der anderen Seite großer Beliebtheit bei der Wissensvermittlung. Trotzdem bringen Videos einen entscheidenden Nachteil mit sich, welcher in der Natur des Datenformats liegt. So sind die Suche nach konkreten Sachverhalten in einem Video sowie die semantische Aufbereitung zur automatisierten Verknüpfung mit weiteren spezifischen Inhalten mit hohem Aufwand verbunden. Daher werden die lernerfolg-orientierte Selektion von Lehrsegmenten und ihr Arrangement zur auf Lernprozesse abgestimmten Steuerung gehemmt. Beim Betrachten des Videos werden unter Umständen bereits bekannte Sachverhalte wiederholt bzw. können nur durch aufwendiges manuelles Spulen übersprungen werden. Selbiges Problem besteht auch bei der gezielten Wiederholung von Videoabschnitten. Als Lösung dieses Problems wird eine Webapplikation vorgestellt, welche die semantische Aufbereitung von Videos hin zu adaptiven Lehrinhalten ermöglicht: mittels Integration von Selbsttestaufgaben mit definierten Folgeaktionen können auf Basis des aktuellen Nutzerwissens Videoabschnitte automatisiert übersprungen oder wiederholt und externe Inhalte verlinkt werden. Der präsentierte Ansatz basiert somit auf einer Erweiterung der behavioristischen Lerntheorie der Verzweigten Lehrprogramme nach Crowder, die auf den Lernverlauf angepasste Sequenzen von Lerneinheiten beinhaltet. Gleichzeitig werden mittels regelmäßig eingeschobener Selbsttestaufgaben Motivation sowie Aufmerksamkeit des Lernenden nach Regeln der Programmierten Unterweisung nach Skinner und Verstärkungstheorie gefördert. Durch explizite Auszeichnung zusammengehöriger Abschnitte in Videos können zusätzlich die enthaltenden Informationen maschinenlesbar gestaltet werden, sodass weitere Möglichkeiten zum Auffinden und Verknüpfen von Lerninhalten geschaffen werden.

A Computer-Based Strategy for Practical Skills Teaching

An adaptive learning technology embedded in e-learning environments ensures choice of the structure, content, and activities for each individual learner according to the teaching team’s domain and didactic knowledge and skills. In this paper a computer-based scenario for application of an adaptive navigation technology is proposed and demonstrated on an example course topic.

Education in Computer Science and the Role of the Teacher in the Environment of Open Educational Resources

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2013

Adaptability, Transformation and Complex Changes in Namibia and Tanzania: Resilience and Innovation System Development in Local Communities

This thesis is a research about the recent complex spatial changes in Namibia and Tanzania and local communities’ capacity to cope with, adapt to and transform the unpredictability engaged to these processes. I scrutinise the concept of resilience and its potential application to explaining the development of local communities in Southern Africa when facing various social, economic and environmental changes. My research is based on three distinct but overlapping research questions: what are the main spatial changes and their impact on the study areas in Namibia and Tanzania? What are the adaptation, transformation and resilience processes of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? How are innovation systems developed, and what is their impact on the resilience of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? I use four ethnographic case studies concerning environmental change, global tourism and innovation system development in Namibia and Tanzania, as well as mixed-methodological approaches, to study these issues. The results of my empirical investigation demonstrate that the spatial changes in the localities within Namibia and Tanzania are unique, loose assemblages, a result of the complex, multisided, relational and evolutional development of human and non-human elements that do not necessarily have linear causalities. Several changes co-exist and are interconnected though uncertain and unstructured and, together with the multiple stressors related to poverty, have made communities more vulnerable to different changes. The communities’ adaptation and transformation measures have been mostly reactive, based on contingency and post hoc learning. Despite various anticipation techniques, coping measures, adaptive learning and self-organisation processes occurring in the localities, the local communities are constrained by their uneven power relationships within the larger assemblages. Thus, communities’ own opportunities to increase their resilience are limited without changing the relations in these multiform entities. Therefore, larger cooperation models are needed, like an innovation system, based on the interactions of different actors to foster cooperation, which require collaboration among and input from a diverse set of stakeholders to combine different sources of knowledge, innovation and learning. Accordingly, both Namibia and Tanzania are developing an innovation system as their key policy to foster transformation towards knowledge-based societies. Finally, the development of an innovation system needs novel bottom-up approaches to increase the resilience of local communities and embed it into local communities. Therefore, innovation policies in Namibia have emphasised the role of indigenous knowledge, and Tanzania has established the Living Lab network.

Adaptive unsupervised learning of human actions

Automatic detection of suspicious activities in CCTV camera feeds is crucial to the success of video surveillance systems. Such a capability can help transform the dumb CCTV cameras into smart surveillance tools for fighting crime and terror. Learning and classification of basic human actions is a precursor to detecting suspicious activities. Most of the current approaches rely on a non-realistic assumption that a complete dataset of normal human actions is available. This paper presents a different approach to deal with the problem of understanding human actions in video when no prior information is available. This is achieved by working with an incomplete dataset of basic actions which are continuously updated. Initially, all video segments are represented by Bags-Of-Words (BOW) method using only Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) features. Then, a data-stream clustering algorithm is applied for updating the system's knowledge from the incoming video feeds. Finally, all the actions are classified into different sets. Experiments and comparisons are conducted on the well known Weizmann and KTH datasets to show the efficacy of the proposed approach.