Power Producers Trading Electricity in Both Pool and Forward Markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Power producers trading electricity in both pool and forward markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

The Deinotherium (Proboscidea, Mammalia): an abnormal tusk from Lisbon, the Miocene record in Portugal and the first appearance datum. Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal

An exceptionally favourable stratigraphic and chronologic context concerning the Miocene series in Lisbon allows us to stress that there are two successive data as far as the Proboscideans' immigration into western Europe is concerned: firstly, that of Gomphotheres, and later that of Deinotheres. The study of a Langhian (in age) tusk has shown that Deinotherinm havaricum was still present then. The time span of this species could be accurately recognized. A discussion on the genus Deinotherium is presented, as well as its occurrence in Portugal and on its ecologic meaning.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

A aplicação de redes neuronais na deteção da influência do High Frequency Trading na negociação de ações (caso português)

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão da Informação

Mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector: An empirical review of the impact of merger announcement on abnormal returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Enhancing and implementing a pairs trading strategy

This paper designs a pairs trading model with the intent to identify existing profitable market opportunities to invest, i.e. traditionally strong correlated stocks that have diverged from its historical norm. It comprises a broad literature review on this strategy whose relevant findings (strategy improvements) are contemplated in the model. The authors combine the statistical results of the model with a backtesting analysis in order to provide guidance on the best investment opportunities.

Abnormal spontaneous interleukin 8 receptor expression: a brief report of two cases

Interleukin 8 (CXCL8) is an autocrine chemokine specific for the chemoattraction and activation of granulocytes, NKT cells and T lymphocytes. Patients with tuberculosis and latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection were assessed for the spontaneous expression of CXCR1 (CD128) and CXCR2 on lymphocytes and monocytes. Compared with ex vivo profiles, increased spontaneous CXCR2 expression and normal CXCR1 expression were found on lymphocytes in two out of 59 individuals. Monocytes showed normal ex vivo profiles for both receptors. After stimulation with purified protein derivative, the in vitro levels of CXCL8 were below the median levels of all patients with prior tuberculosis. Spontaneous CXCR2 modulation did not cause notable variation in the in vitro levels of CXCL8.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.