The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.

RED vs. REDD: Biofuel Policy vs. Forest Conservation. Factor Markets Working Document No. 41, May 2013

This paper assesses the complex interplay between global Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). We examine the interaction of the two policies using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model. The consequences of a global biofuel directive on worldwide land use, agricultural production, international trade flows, food prices and food security out to 2030 are evaluated with and without a strict global REDD policy. We address a key methodological challenge of how to model the supply of land in the face of restrictions over its availability, as arises under the REDD policy. The paper introduces a flexible land supply function, which allows for large changes in the total potential land availability for agriculture. Our results show that whilst both RED and REDD are designed to reduce emissions, they have opposing impacts on land use. RED policies are found to extend land use whereas the REDD policy leads to an overall reduction in land use and intensification of agriculture. Strict REDD policies to protect forest and woodland lead to higher land prices in all regions. World food prices are slightly higher overall with some significant regional increases, notably in Southern Africa and Indonesia, leading to reductions in food security in these countries. This said, real food prices in 2030 are still lower than the 2010 level, even with the RED and REDD policies in place. Overall this suggests that RED and REDD are feasible from a worldwide perspective, although the results show that there are some regional problems that need to be resolved. The results show that countries directly affected by forest and woodland protection would be the most economically vulnerable when the REDD policy is implemented. The introduction of REDD policies reduces global trade in agricultural products and moves some developing countries to a net importing position for agricultural products. This suggests that the protection of forests and woodlands in these regions reverses their comparative advantage as they move from being land-abundant to land-scarce regions. The full REDD policy setting, however, foresees providing compensation to these countries to cover their economic losses.

World agriculture outlook & situation /

Title varies slightly.

World agricultural situation.

Description based on: WAS-16 (July 1978).

Food and nutrition security and the eradication of hunger CELAC 2025: Furthering discussion and regional cooperation

The region of Latin America and the Caribbean can boast a successful track record in the process of eradicating hunger: it is the only region in the world that has halved both the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (the target set in the Millennium Development Goals) and their absolute number (the target set at the World Food Summit of 1996). This publication aims to provide the region’s countries with up-todate and timely information on the status of food and nutrition security; on the role in eradicating hunger played by the different areas such as agriculture, agrifood trade and natural resources management; and on the possibility of successfully addressing the twin burden of malnutrition, in a context where the effects of climate change could threaten the progress achieved in Latin America and the Caribbean thus far. The CELAC Plan for Food and Nutrition Security and the Eradication of Hunger 2025 is a cross-cutting tool for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and it thus encourages the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to redouble their efforts to identify key policy areas that will make it possible to speed up and consolidate the process of eradicating hunger and tackle the twin burden of malnutrition in the region, in which overweight and obesity are increasingly adding to that scourge.

Life Cycle Thinking for sustainability assessment and decision-making in selected food supply chains in Costa Rica

The Agenda 2030 contains 17 integrated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 12 for Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) promotes the efficient use of resources through a systemic change that decouples economic growth from environmental degradation. The Food Systems (FS) pillar in SDG 12 entails paramount relevance due to its interconnection to many other SDGs, and even when being a crucial world food supplier, the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) Region struggles with environmental and social externalities, low investment in agriculture, inequity, food insecurity, poverty, and migration. Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) was regarded as a pertinent approach to identify hotspots and trade-offs, and support decision-making process to aid LAC Region countries as Costa Rica to diagnose sustainability and overcome certain challenges. This thesis aimed to ‘evaluate the sustainability of selected products from food supply chains in Costa Rica, to provide inputs for further sustainable decision-making, through the application of Life Cycle Thinking’. To do this, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), and Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) evaluated the sustainability of food-waste-to-energy alternatives, and the production of green coffee, raw milk and leafy vegetables, and identified environmental, social and cost hotspots. This approach also proved to be a useful component of decision-making and policy-making processes together with other methods. LCT scientific literature led by LAC or Costa Rican researchers is still scarce; therefore, this research contributed to improve capacities in the use of LCT in this context, while offering potential replicability of the developed frameworks in similar cases. Main limitations related to the representativeness and availability of primary data; however, future research and extension activities are foreseen to increase local data availability, capacity building, and the discussion of potential integration through Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA).

Generalized connectivity between any two nodes in a complex network

This article focuses on the identification of the number of paths with different lengths between pairs of nodes in complex networks and how these paths can be used for characterization of topological properties of theoretical and real-world complex networks. This analysis revealed that the number of paths can provide a better discrimination of network models than traditional network measurements. In addition, the analysis of real-world networks suggests that the long-range connectivity tends to be limited in these networks and may be strongly related to network growth and organization.

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Can genetically-modified cotton contribute to sustainable development in Africa?

Genetically modified (GM) crops and sustainable development remain the foci of much media attention, especially given current concerns about a global food crisis. However, whilst the latter is embraced with enthusiasm by almost all groups, GM crops generate very mixed views. Some countries have welcomed GM, but others, notably those in Europe, adopt a cautious stance. This article aims to review the contribution that GM crops can make to agricultural sustainability in the developing world. Following brief reviews of both issues and their linkages, notably the pros and cons of GM cotton as a contributory factor in sustainability, a number of case studies from resourcepoor cotton farmers in Makhathini Flats, South Africa, is presented for a six-year period. Data on expenditure, productivity and income indicate that Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is advantageous because it reduces costs, for example, of pesticides, and increases income, and the indications are that those benefits continued over at least the six years covered by the studies. There are repercussions of the additional income in the households; debts are reduced and money is invested in children's education and in the farms. However, in the general GM debate, the results show that GM crops are not miracle products which alleviate poverty at a stroke, but nor is there evidence that they will cause the scale of environmental damage associated with indiscriminate pesticide use. Indeed, for some GM antagonists, perhaps even the majority, such debates are irrelevant – the transfer of genes between species is unnatural and unethical. For them, GM crops will never be acceptable despite the evidence and pressure to increase world food production.

Categories of GM risk-benefit perceptions and their antecedents

The stated benefits and perceived risks of genetic modification (GM) cover very diverse issues, such as food safety, world food security, and the environment, that may differentially affect consumer acceptance. In this research, we hypothesize that consumers perceive up to eight dimensions: risks to business (farmers, agribusiness, etc.), benefits to business, risks and benefits to the environment, risks and benefits to the developing world, and risks and benefits to self and family. Moral concerns are also recognized. Using data collected in 2002 in the United States, France, and the UK, we investigate these different dimensions. Second, we analyze the extent to which the dimensions of risk-benefit perceptions can be explained by general attitudes widely used to explain food purchase behavior (such as general attitude to the environment, to technology, etc.), as well as by perceived knowledge of GM, level of education, and trust in various sources of information. In all locations, the majority of consumers only perceive a medium level of risk from GM products. Attitude to technology is the most important attitude variable—those with a positive attitude to technology in general also have a positive attitude to GM technology. More Americans than Europeans fall into this category. Those who trust government and the food industry tend to think GM technology is less risky, whereas those who trust activists believe the opposite. Americans are more trusting of the former, Europeans of the latter. Level of education is positively associated with benefit perceptions and negatively associated with moral concerns. Location continues to play a limited independent role in explaining perceptions even after these factors have been taken into account.

Inhibition of Salmonella Typhimurium by tannins in vitro

Given the recent EU ban of antibiotics to promote the growth of farm animals, alternative approaches are needed for animal production systems. Tannins, which are already commercially marketed for animal nutrition, have bacteriostatic and bactericidal properties against pathogenic bacteria. The aim of this study was to investigate the inhibitory effect of various tannins against Salmonella Typhimurium (SL1344nal(r)) to identify potentially effective feed additives. Different sources of condensed and hydrolysable tannins were tested at concentrations between I and 6 mg ml(-1). The tannins tested were either commercial preparations or isolated from such preparations or from plants using Sephadex LH-20 based column chromatography. Some, but not all, of the tannins significantly decreased bacterial growth compared to tannin-free selenite cystine broth following incubation for 24 h at 37 degrees C. Gallotannins were especially effective and tara achieved 1.28 log(10) reductions after 24 hours. Antibacterial activity was also confirmed with inhibition zone diameters in a disc diffusion test. The experiments demonstrated that tannins may have potential as feed additives for reducing Salmonella infections in farm animals.

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections (HadCM3 global climate model) for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

When bookkeepers become beekeepers: why bee accountability

Accounting for biodiversity has received increasing attention from the academic accounting community in recent years. Despite a stream of research investigating the quality and quantity of biodiversity reporting in general, no academic research has focused on reporting related to one specific species. This paper explores the quality and quantity of corporate disclosures relating to bees. Society is becoming increasingly concerned about the accelerating fall in bee populations around the world. Colony Collapse Disorder has been spreading through global bee populations since 2006, decimating commercial hives. Concerns are fuelled by fears that pollinators may become extinct which would have dire consequences for the majority of world food production, leaving human pollination, at immense cost, the only alternative. On the basis of these fears, companies as well as other organisations, have started to establish programmes aimed at rejuvenating global bee populations. In this paper we explore the bee-related disclosures provided by a large selection of UK listed companies. We assess the extent to which companies believe they have a role to play in enhancing and protecting bee populations. Further we consider whether corporate accountability in this area derives solely from a business case or whether there is a deeper societal connection with bees as a species which is encouraging companies to protect their survival. The paper investigates the historical and philosophical connection between bees and human beings, for example the ways industrial production has been likened to honey production. We draw parallels between bees and human industrial organisation as well as between the role and responsibilities of the bookkeeper and the beekeeper.

Water, irrigation and plant diseases

Irrigation is a major husbandry tool, vital for world food production and security. The purpose of this review is twofold:- firstly drawing attention to the beneficial and deleterious aspects of irrigation resulting from interactions with the microbial world; secondly, forming a basis for encouraging further research and development. Irrigation is for example, a valuable component in the control of some soil borne pathogens such as Streptomyces scabies, the cause of potato common scab and Fusarium cubense, a cause of banana wilt. By contrast, applying irrigation encourages some foliar pathogens and factors such as splash dispersal of propagules and the retention of leaf wetness are important elements in the successful establishment of disease foci. Irrigation applied at low levels in the canopy directly towards the stem bases and root zones of plants also provides means encouraging disease development. Irrigation also offers means for the direct spread of microbes such as water borne moulds, Oomycetes, and plasmodial pathogens coming from populations present in the water supply. The presence of plant disease causing microbes in sources of irrigation has been associated with outbreaks of diseases such as clubroot (Plasmodiophora brassicae). Irrigation can be utilised as a means for applying agrochemicals, fungigation. The developing technologies of water restriction and root zone drying also have an impact on the success of disease causing organisms. This is an emerging technology and its interactions with benign and pathogenic microbes require consideration.