909 resultados para Wind integration wind power forecasting
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The objective of this master's thesis is to compare two different generator systems for wind turbines. It is the doubly fed induction generator system with three stage gearbox and the direct drive permanent magnet generator system. The comparison of generator systems is based on annual energy production for a given wind climate. For comparison a 3 MW, 15 rpm wind turbine is used. Modelling of a turbine rotor, gearbox and converters were done. Design of two generators was done and their performance was examined.
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Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.
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A program for calculating low-speed low-power synchronous machine is presented. A permanent-magnet synchronous generator for 1 kW 150 rpm is designed. Optimization of magnet’s and coil’s dimensions was made.
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Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.
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Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.
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The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/
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With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.
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http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2005/1022/thumbnail.jpg
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http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2009/1031/thumbnail.jpg
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An expedited permitting area has been created to facilitate the development of wind power projects in Maine. The purpose of this project was to investigate the impact of removing areas of conservation interest from the expedited permitting area. We found that the removal of these areas impacts the total wind potential of the state, in an amount proportional to the size of the area removed. The impact on the total wind potential ranged from 0.46-29.0% decrease, depending on the calculation scenario used. These findings may have implications for future policy decisions concerning wind power development.
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This map shows one option for a viable energy source that is clean, free and endless: wind power. This map shows that the coast of Maine has the potential space and wind speed to be a location for wind farms. Four NOAA buoys placed in different locations along the Maine coast are the source of the wind speed data for this project. The average wind speed of every ten minutes of every day for the year 2004 were averaged so that each buoy was represented by one number of wind speed measured in meters/ second. The values in between these four buoys were estimated, or interpolated, using ArcGIS. Other factors that I took into consideration during this lab were distance from airports (no wind farm can be with in a three mile radius of an airport ) and distance from counties (no one wants an offshore wind farm that obstructs their view). I calculated the most appropriate locations for a wind farm in ArcGIS, by adding these three layers. The final output shows an area along Mt. Desert to be the most appropriate for development.
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Abstract The goal of this project is to assess the knowledge and attitudes of Nebraskans on the issue of wind power. The point of this research is to learn whether the presence of wind power has a positive effect on a person’s knowledge about and attitudes toward wind power and wind turbines. Using mail surveys, qualitative and quantitative data were collected from the towns of Pierce and Ainsworth Nebraska. The surveys aided in seeing patterns of knowledge about wind power and wind turbines and positive and negative attitudes and major concerns regarding wind power.
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[EN]Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model…
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The growth of wind power as an electric energy source is profitable from an environmental point of view and improves the energetic independence of countries with little fossil fuel resources. However, the wind resource randomness poses a great challenge in the management of electric grids. This study raises the possibility of using hydrogen as a mean to damp the variability of the wind resource. Thus, it is proposed the use of all the energy produced by a typical wind farm for hydrogen generation, that will in turn be used after for suitable generation of electric energy according to the operation rules in a liberalized electric market.