994 resultados para Wind forecast


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This paper deals with the problem of coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic systems in order to find the optimal bid to submit in a pool-based electricity market. The coordination of wind and photovoltaic systems presents uncertainties not only due to electricity market prices, but also with wind and photovoltaic power forecast. Electricity markets are characterized by financial penalties in case of deficit or excess of generation. So, the aim o this work is to reduce these financial penalties and maximize the expected profit of the power producer. The problem is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The proposed approach is validated with real data of pool-based electricity market of Iberian Peninsula.

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The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

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Ameliorated strategies were put forward to improve the model predictive control in reducing the wind induced vibration of spatial latticed structures. The dynamic matrix control (DMC) predictive method was used and the reference trajectory which is called the decaying functions was suggested for the analysis of spatial latticed structure (SLS) under wind loads. The wind-induced vibration control model of SLS with improved DMC model predictive control was illustrated, then the different feedback strategies were investigated and a typical SLS was taken as example to investigate the reduction of wind-induced vibration. In addition, the robustness and reliability of DMC strategy were discussed by varying the model configurations.

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This paper presents the analysis of shaft voltage in different configurations of a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and an induction generator (IG) with a back-to-back inverter in wind turbine applications. Detailed high frequency model of the proposed systems have been developed based on existing capacitive couplings in IG & DFIG structures and common mode voltage sources. In this research work, several arrangements of DFIG based wind energy conversion systems (WES) are investigated in case of shaft voltage calculation and its mitigation techniques. Placements of an LC line filter in different locations and its effects on shaft voltage elimination are studied via Mathematical analysis and simulations. A pulse width modulation (PWM) technique and a back-to-back inverter with a bidirectional buck converter have been presented to eliminate the shaft voltage in a DFIG wind turbine.

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This project set out to investigate the behaviour of a pole frame house subjected to a lateral wind load. The behaviour of poles embedded in the ground was examined. The existing theoretical methods for determining lateral load capacity of an embedded pole were reviewed, and three common methods of pole embedment were tested at different depths to gauge the response of poles and types of pole embedment to a lateral load. The most suitable embedment method was used in the foundation for a full-scale model pole house, which was constructed and tested at various stages during the construction to examine the response of a pole house to lateral wind load. The full scale testing was also used to monitor the effect of the various structural components on the overall stiffuess of the house. The results from the full scale tests were used to calibrate a computer model of a pole house which could then be used to predict the behaviour of different configurations of pole house construction without the need for further expensive full scale tests.

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Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.