Health Protection Inequalities on the island of Ireland: An introductory paper

Public health services in Ireland, North and South, are committed to addressing inequalities in health on the island of Ireland. This report, prepared by Dr Lorraine Doherty, Assistant Director of Public Health (Health Protection), Public Health Agency NI for the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH), specifically highlights health inequalities in relation to infectious diseases and other areas of health protection such as chemical hazards and environmental disruption. Infectious diseases disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society. These vulnerable groups bear the highest burden of disease in relation to infectious diseases. The report also highlights the impact of climate change on health protection and the impacts for water, food and vector borne diseases. The aim of this report is to enable a programme of work to begin to document health protection inequalities and develop action plans for addressing them on an all island basis.

Perspectives in the control of infectious diseases by transgenic mosquitoes in the post-genomic era: a review

Arthropod-borne diseases caused by a variety of microorganisms such as dengue virus and malaria parasites afflict billions of people worldwide imposing major economic and social burdens. Despite many efforts, vaccines against diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, with the exception of yellow fever, are not available. Control of such infectious pathogens is mainly performed by vector management and treatment of affected individuals with drugs. However, the numbers of insecticide-resistant insects and drug-resistant parasites are increasing. Therefore, inspired in recent years by a lot of new data produced by genomics and post-genomics research, several scientific groups have been working on different strategies to control infectious arthropod-borne diseases. This review focuses on recent advances and perspectives towards construction of transgenic mosquitoes refractory to malaria parasites and dengue virus transmission.

Effect of organic amendments on sclerotial germination, mycelial growth, and Sclerotium rolfsii-induced diseases

The addition of organic residues to soil is an option to control some soil-borne diseases. Benzaldehyde and powders of kudzu (Pueraria lobata), velvetbean (Mucuna deeringiana), and pine-bark (Pinus elliottii and P. taeda) added to soil could reduce certain soil-borne diseases. This study evaluated the effects of benzaldehyde and the dried powders of kudzu, velvetbean, and pine-bark as soil amendments on germination and formation of sclerotia, on mycelial growth of Sclerotium rolfsii, on plant survival, and disease incidence. The data showed that high amounts of benzaldehyde (0.4 ml kg-1 of soil) and velvetbean (100 g kg-1) inhibited S. rolfsii mycelial growth and sclerotium germination. However, low amounts of benzaldehyde (0.1 ml kg-1), kudzu (25 g kg-1), and pine-bark (25 g kg-1) stimulated mycelial growth and sclerotium germination. Kudzu (25-100 g kg-1) and velvetbean (25-100 g kg-1) inhibited the formation of sclerotia. Nevertheless, benzaldehyde at 0.2 and 0.4 ml kg-1 stimulated the formation of sclerotia. Kudzu (50 and 100 g kg-1) and pine-bark (50 g kg-1) favored the colonization of sclerotia by Trichoderma sp. The numbers of soybean (Glycine max) plants were higher and diseased plants were lower than the non-amend soil in the following treatments: kudzu (50 and 100 g kg-1), velvetbean (50 and 100 g kg-1), and pine-bark (50 g kg-1). Disease severity on tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) plants was low in soil treated with kudzu or velvetbean (30 and 35 g kg-1) and pine-bark (35 g kg-1). Dried powders of kudzu, velvetbean, or pine-bark added to soil can reduce disease by reducing pathogen inoculum.

Interaction d'Escherichia coli entérohémorragique (EHEC) avec Acanthamoeba castellanii et rôle du régulon Pho chez les EHEC

Les EHEC de sérotype O157:H7 sont des agents zoonotiques d’origine alimentaire ou hydrique. Ce sont des pathogènes émergeants qui causent chez l’humain des épidémies de gastro-entérite aiguë et parfois un syndrome hémolytique-urémique. Les EHEC réussissent leur transmission à l’humain à partir de leur portage commensal chez l’animal en passant par l’étape de survie dans l’environnement. L’endosymbiose microbienne est une des stratégies utilisées par les bactéries pathogènes pour survivre dans les environnements aquatiques. Les amibes sont des protozoaires vivants dans divers écosystèmes et connus pour abriter plusieurs agents pathogènes. Ainsi, les amibes contribueraient à transmettre les EHEC à l'humain. La première partie de mon projet de thèse est centrée sur l'interaction de l’amibe Acanthamoeba castellanii avec les EHEC. Les résultats montrent que la présence de cette amibe prolonge la persistance des EHEC, et ces dernières survivent à leur phagocytose par les amibes. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel réel des amibes à héberger les EHEC et à contribuer à leur transmission. Cependant, l’absence de Shiga toxines améliore leur taux de survie intra-amibe. Par ailleurs, les Shiga toxines sont partiellement responsables de l’intoxication des amibes par les EHEC. Cette implication des Shiga toxines dans le taux de survie intracellulaire et dans la mortalité des amibes démontre l’intérêt d’utiliser les amibes comme modèle d'interaction hôte/pathogène pour étudier la pathogénicité des EHEC. Durant leur cycle de transmission, les EHEC rencontrent des carences en phosphate inorganique (Pi) dans l’environnement. En utilisant conjointement le système à deux composantes (TCS) PhoB-R et le système Pst (transport spécifique de Pi), les EHEC détectent et répondent à cette variation en Pi en activant le régulon Pho. La relation entre la virulence des EHEC, le PhoB-R-Pst et/ou le Pi environnemental demeure inconnue. La seconde partie de mon projet explore le rôle du régulon Pho (répondant à un stress nutritif de limitation en Pi) dans la virulence des EHEC. L’analyse transcriptomique montre que les EHEC répondent à la carence de Pi par une réaction complexe impliquant non seulement un remodelage du métabolisme général, qui est critique pour sa survie, mais aussi en coordonnant sa réponse de virulence. Dans ces conditions le régulateur PhoB contrôle directement l’expression des gènes du LEE et de l’opéron stx2AB. Ceci est confirmé par l’augmentation de la sécrétion de l’effecteur EspB et de la production et sécrétion de Stx2 en carence en Pi. Par ailleurs, l’activation du régulon Pho augmente la formation de biofilm et réduit la motilité chez les EHEC. Ceci corrèle avec l’induction des gènes régulant la production de curli et la répression de la voie de production d’indole et de biosynthèse du flagelle et du PGA (Polymère β-1,6-N-acétyle-D-glucosamine).

Studies on seed pathology and seedling diseases of some important indigenous tree species of kerala

In forestry, availability of healthy seeds is an important factor in raising planting stock. Initial seed health and storage conditions are the major factors governing the germinability of seeds. Like seeds of agricultural and horticultural crops, forest tree seeds are also liable to be affected by micro-organisms during storage, which affects the germination, and reduces the viability. Further introduction of seed-borne diseases into newly sown crops/areas on account of using unhealthy seeds is also not ruled out. Availability of healthy stock of seedlings is intrinsic for raising plantations and to meet this requirement elimination of nursery diseases by appropriate chemicals is of prime imortance. As exotic tree species may become susceptible to various native pathogens, it is generally considered better to select indigenous tree species for large scale plantations as they are well adapted to local environment. However, before taking up large scale afforestation progranme involving any indigenous tree species, it is essential to have knowledge about seed disorders and seedling diseases and their management. with a View to select appropriate tree species with fewer seed disorders and seedling disease problems for use in further plantation programme, four indigenous tree species such as Albizia odoratissima (L.f) Benth., Lagerstroemia microcazpa Wt., Pterocazpus marsupiwn Roxb. and Xylia xylocarpa (Roxb.) Taub. were evaluated to meet the above parameters

Strategies, effectiveness and rationale of vector-borne disease control in the pastoralist system of south-western Uganda

In Uganda, control of vector-borne diseases is mainly in form of vector control, and chemotherapy. There have been reports that acaricides are being misused in the pastoralist systems in Uganda. This is because of the belief by scientists that intensive application of acaricide is uneconomical and unsustainable particularly in the indigenous cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the strategies, rationale and effectiveness of vector-borne disease control by pastoralists. To systematically carry out these investigations, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used, in both the collection and the analysis of data. Cattle keepers were found to control tick-borne diseases (TBDs) mainly through spraying, in contrast with the control of trypanosomosis for which the main method of control was by chemotherapy. The majority of herders applied acaricides weekly and used an acaricide of lower strength than recommended by the manufacturers. They used very little acaricide wash, and spraying was preferred to dipping. Furthermore, pastoralists either treated sick animals themselves or did nothing at all, rather than using veterinary personnel. Oxytetracycline (OTC) was the drug commonly used in the treatment of TBDs. Nevertheless, although pastoralists may not have been following recommended practices in their control of ticks and tick-borne diseases, they were neither wasteful nor uneconomical and their methods appeared to be effective. Trypanosomosis was not a problem either in Sembabule or Mbarara district. Those who used trypanocides were found to use more drugs than were necessary.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New scientific paradigms for probiotics and prebiotics

The inaugural meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) was held May 3 to May 5 2002 in London, Ontario, Canada. A group of 63 academic and industrial scientists from around the world convened to discuss current issues in the science of probiotics and prebiotics. ISAPP is a non-profit organization comprised of international scientists whose intent is to strongly support and improve the levels of scientific integrity and due diligence associated with the study, use, and application of probiotics and prebiotics. In addition, ISAPP values its role in facilitating communication with the public and healthcare providers and among scientists in related fields on all topics pertinent to probiotics and prebiotics. It is anticipated that such efforts will lead to development of approaches and products that are optimally designed for the improvement of human and animal health and well being. This article is a summary of the discussions, conclusions, and recommendations made by 8 working groups convened during the first ISAPP workshop focusing on the topics of: definitions, intestinal flora, extra-intestinal sites, immune function, intestinal disease, cancer, genetics and genomics, and second generation prebiotics. Humans have evolved in symbiosis with an estimated 1014 resident microorganisms. However, as medicine has widely defined and explored the perpetrators of disease, including those of microbial origin, it has paid relatively little attention to the microbial cells that constitute the most abundant life forms associated with our body. Microbial metabolism in humans and animals constitutes an intense biochemical activity in the body, with profound repercussions for health and disease. As understanding of the human genome constantly expands, an important opportunity will arise to better determine the relationship between microbial populations within the body and host factors (including gender, genetic background, and nutrition) and the concomitant implications for health and improved quality of life. Combined human and microbial genetic studies will determine how such interactions can affect human health and longevity, which communication systems are used, and how they can be influenced to benefit the host. Probiotics are defined as live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host.1 The probiotic concept dates back over 100 years, but only in recent times have the scientific knowledge and tools become available to properly evaluate their effects on normal health and well being, and their potential in preventing and treating disease. A similar situation exists for prebiotics, defined by this group as non-digestible substances that provide a beneficial physiological effect on the host by selectively stimulating the favorable growth or activity of a limited number of indigenous bacteria. Prebiotics function complementary to, and possibly synergistically with, probiotics. Numerous studies are providing insights into the growth and metabolic influence of these microbial nutrients on health. Today, the science behind the function of probiotics and prebiotics still requires more stringent deciphering both scientifically and mechanistically. The explosion of publications and interest in probiotics and prebiotics has resulted in a body of collective research that points toward great promise. However, this research is spread among such a diversity of organisms, delivery vehicles (foods, pills, and supplements), and potential health targets such that general conclusions cannot easily be made. Nevertheless, this situation is rapidly changing on a number of important fronts. With progress over the past decade on the genetics of lactic acid bacteria and the recent, 2,3 and pending, 4 release of complete genome sequences for major probiotic species, the field is now armed with detailed information and sophisticated microbiological and bioinformatic tools. Similarly, advances in biotechnology could yield new probiotics and prebiotics designed for enhanced or expanded functionality. The incorporation of genetic tools within a multidisciplinary scientific platform is expected to reveal the contributions of commensals, probiotics, and prebiotics to general health and well being and explicitly identify the mechanisms and corresponding host responses that provide the basis for their positive roles and associated claims. In terms of human suffering, the need for effective new approaches to prevent and treat disease is paramount. The need exists not only to alleviate the significant mortality and morbidity caused by intestinal diseases worldwide (especially diarrheal diseases in children), but also for infections at non-intestinal sites. This is especially worthy of pursuit in developing nations where mortality is too often the outcome of food and water borne infection. Inasmuch as probiotics and prebiotics are able to influence the populations or activities of commensal microflora, there is evidence that they can also play a role in mitigating some diseases. 5,6 Preliminary support that probiotics and prebiotics may be useful as intervention in conditions including inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, allergy, cancer (especially colorectal cancer of which 75% are associated with diet), vaginal and urinary tract infections in women, kidney stone disease, mineral absorption, and infections caused by Helicobacter pylori is emerging. Some metabolites of microbes in the gut may also impact systemic conditions ranging from coronary heart disease to cognitive function, suggesting the possibility that exogenously applied microbes in the form of probiotics, or alteration of gut microecology with prebiotics, may be useful interventions even in these apparently disparate conditions. Beyond these direct intervention targets, probiotic cultures can also serve in expanded roles as live vehicles to deliver biologic agents (vaccines, enzymes, and proteins) to targeted locations within the body. The economic impact of these disease conditions in terms of diagnosis, treatment, doctor and hospital visits, and time off work exceeds several hundred billion dollars. The quality of life impact is also of major concern. Probiotics and prebiotics offer plausible opportunities to reduce the morbidity associated with these conditions. The following addresses issues that emerged from 8 workshops (Definitions, Intestinal Flora, Extra-Intestinal Sites, Immune Function, Intestinal Disease, Cancer, Genomics, and Second Generation Prebiotics), reflecting the current scientific state of probiotics and prebiotics. This is not a comprehensive review, however the study emphasizes pivotal knowledge gaps, and recommendations are made as to the underlying scientific and multidisciplinary studies that will be required to advance our understanding of the roles and impact of prebiotics, probiotics, and the commensal microflora upon health and disease management.

Survey for Tick-Borne Zoonoses in the State of Espirito Santo, Southeastern Brazil

Blood samples collected from 201 humans, 92 dogs, and 27 horses in the state of Espirito Santo, Brazil, were tested by polymerase chain reaction, indirect immunofluorescence assays, and indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for tick-borne diseases (rickettsiosis, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis, borreliosis, babesiosis). Our results indicated that the surveyed counties are endemic for spotted fever group rickettsiosis because sera from 70 (34.8%) humans, 7 (7.6%) dogs, and 7 (25.9%) horses were reactive to at least one of the six Rickettsia species tested. Although there was evidence of ehrlichiosis (Ehrlichia canis) and babesiosis (Babesia cams vogeli, Theileria equi) in domestic animals, no human was positive for babesiosis and only four individuals were serologically positive for E. canis. Borrelia burgdorferi-serologic reactive sera were rare among humans and horses, but encompassed 51% of the canine samples, suggesting that dogs and their ticks can be part of the epidemiological cycle of the causative agent of the Brazilian zoonosis, named Baggio-Yoshinari Syndrome.

Molecular detection of tick-borne bacterial agents in Brazilian and exotic captive carnivores

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A revisão do Código Florestal Brasileiro: impactos negativos para a conservação dos anfíbios

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.