Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Assessment of overlay masonry strengthening system under in-plane monotonic and cyclic loading using the diagonal tensile test

The development of novel strengthening techniques to address the seismic vulnerability of masonry elements is gradually leading to simpler, faster and more effective strengthening strategies. In particular, the use of fabric reinforced cementitious matrix systems is considered of great potential, given the increase of ductility achieved with simple and economic strengthening procedures. To assess the effectiveness of these strengthening systems, and considering that the seismic action is involved, one important component of the structural behaviour is the in-plane cyclic response. In this work is discussed the applicability of the diagonal tensile test for the assessment of the cyclic response of strengthened masonry. The results obtained allowed to assess the contribution of the strengthening system to the increase of the load carrying capacity of masonry elements, as well as to evaluate the damage evolution and the stiffness degradation mechanisms developing under cyclic loading.

Seismic behaviour assessment of vernacular isolated buildings

This paper presents the numerical seismic analysis of isolated vernacular buildings characteristic of the Alentejo region, which is considered a medium seismic hazard region in Portugal.A representative isolated building was selected from a database, and a geometric model was defined for the numerical pushover analysis. Subsequently, a parametric analysis was carried out to assess the influence of distinct parameters on the seismic behaviour of such buildings.

Experimental assessment of an innovative strengthening material for brick masonry infills

The vulnerability of masonry infill walls has been highlighted in recent earthquakes in which severe inplane damage and out-of-plane collapse developed, justifying the investment in the proposal of strengthening solutions aiming to improve the seismic performance of these construction elements. Therefore, this work presents an innovative strengthening solution to be applied in masonry infill walls, in order to avoid brittle failure and thus minimize the material damage and human losses. The textilereinforced mortar technique (TRM) has been shown to improve the out-of-plane resistance of masonry and to enhance its ductility, and here an innovative reinforcing mesh composed of braided composite rods is proposed. The external part of the rod is composed of braided polyester whose structure is defined so that the bond adherence with mortar is optimized. The mechanical performance of the strengthening technique to improve the out-of-plane behaviour of brick masonry is assessed based on experimental bending tests. Additionally, a comparison of the mechanical behaviour of the proposed meshes with commercial meshes is provided. The idea is that the proposed meshes are efficient in avoiding brittle collapse and premature disintegration of brick masonry during seismic events.

Groundwater vulnerability and protection in County Tipperary (South Riding), Ireland

The aim of the project was to determine the extent and quality of the groundwater in Tipperary South Riding with a view to developing a groundwater protection plan which would allow the Local Authority to manage, protect and develop the groundwater as efficiently as possible. The geology of the area varies with topography. The low-lying areas of the county comprise mainly Carboniferous limestones while the elevated regions consist of sandstones and shales of Upper Carboniferous, Devonian and Silurian ages. Deformation of these rocks decreases in magnitude moving northwards over the area; the Southern Synclines having suffered the effects of the Hercynian orogeny and the northern region exhibiting Caledonian orogenic trends. Quaternary (subsoil) deposits are found throughout the area and are of variable thickness and permeability. Till is the most widespread deposit with discontinuous pockets of sand and gravel in various proportions, and some marl, alluvium and peat in places. The principal aquifers of the area are the Kiltorcan sandstone formation and various limestone units within the Carboniferous succession. 50 % of south Tipperary constitutes either regionally or locally important aquifers. Secondary permeabilities created by structural deformation, dolomitisation, karstification and weathering processes create high transmissivities and often have large well yields. Specific baseflow analysis highlighted the complexity of the aquifers and proved that the lower part of the Suir river system is a major groundwater resource region. The hydrochemistry and water quality of the local authority groundwater sources was examined briefly. The majority of south Tipperary is underlain by limestone or Quaternary deposits derived from limestone and, consequently, calcium/magnesium bicarbonate waters predominate. The quality of the groundwater in south Tipperary demonstrates that the main concern originates from the presence of E.coli, and Total coliforms. The primary sources of contamination are from farmyard wastes and septic tanks. The vulnerability of groundwater to diffuse and point sources of pollution has been found to be dependent on the overlying soil, subsoil and the thickness of the unsaturated zone. A conceptual rather than quantitative approach is used and it is found that approximately 60% of south Tipperary is designated as being extremely or highly vulnerable. The groundwater protection plan was devised subsequent to an understanding of the aquifer systems, an assessment of the vulnerability, and a review of the Irish planning system and environmental law. It is recommended that the plan be integrated into the county development plan for legislative purposes. A series of acceptability matrices were devised to restrict potentially polluting activities in vulnerable areas while maintaining a balance between protection of the groundwater resource and the need to site essential developments.

Vulnerability to poverty: A microeconometric approach and application to the Republic of Haiti

This paper investigates vulnerability to poverty in Haiti. Research in vulnerability in developing countries has been scarce due to the high data requirements of vulnerability studies (e.g. panel or long series of cross-sections). The methodology adopted here allows the assessment of vulnerability to poverty by exploiting the short panel structure of nested data at different levels. The decomposition method reveals that vulnerability in Haiti is largely a rural phenomenon and that schooling correlates negatively with vulnerability. Most importantly, among the different shocks affecting household's income, it is found that meso-level shocks are in general far more important than covariate shocks. This finding points to some interesting policy implications in decentralizing policies to alleviate vulnerability to poverty.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, an Atlantic Forest area: an assessment using the health surveillance service

The lethality of malaria in the extra-Amazonian region is more than 70 times higher than in Amazonia itself. Recently, several studies have shown that autochthonous malaria is not a rare event in the Brazilian southeastern states in the Atlantic Forest biome. Information about autochthonous malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) is scarce. This study aims to assess malaria cases reported to the Health Surveillance System of the State of Rio de Janeiro between 2000-2010. An average of 90 cases per year had parasitological malaria confirmation by thick smear. The number of malaria notifications due to Plasmodium falciparum increased over time. Imported cases reported during the period studied were spread among 51% of the municipalities (counties) of the state. Only 35 cases (4.3%) were autochthonous, which represents an average of 3.8 new cases per year. Eleven municipalities reported autochthonous cases; within these, six could be characterised as areas of residual or new foci of malaria from the Atlantic Forest system. The other 28 municipalities could become receptive for transmission reintroduction. Cases occurred during all periods of the year, but 62.9% of cases were in the first semester of each year. Assessing vulnerability and receptivity conditions and vector ecology is imperative to establish the real risk of malaria reintroduction in RJ.

Waterborne toxoplasmosis investigated and analysed under hydrogeological assessment: new data and perspectives for further research

We present a set of data on human and chicken Toxoplasma gondiiseroprevalence that was investigated and analysed in light of groundwater vulnerability information in an area endemic for waterborne toxoplasmosis in Brazil. Hydrogeological assessment was undertaken to select sites for water collection from wells for T. gondii oocyst testing and for collecting blood from free-range chickens and humans for anti-T. gondiiserologic testing. Serologic testing of human specimens was done using conventional commercial tests and a sporozoite-specific embryogenesis-related protein (TgERP), which is able to differentiate whether infection resulted from tissue cysts or oocysts. Water specimens were negative for the presence of viable T. gondii oocysts. However, seroprevalence in free-range chickens was significantly associated with vulnerability of groundwater to surface contamination (p < 0.0001; odds ratio: 4.73, 95% confidence interval: 2.18-10.2). Surprisingly, a high prevalence of antibodies against TgERP was detected in human specimens, suggesting the possibility of a continuous contamination of drinking water with T. gondiioocysts in this endemic setting. These findings and the new proposed approach to investigate and analyse endemic toxoplasmosis in light of groundwater vulnerability information associated with prevalence in humans estimated by oocyst antigens recognition have implications for the potential role of hydrogeological assessment in researching waterborne toxoplasmosis at a global scale.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Assessing psychosocial vulnerability and care needs of pretransplant patients by means of the INTERMED.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether the INTERMED, a generic instrument for assessing biopsychosocial case complexity and direct care, identifies organ transplant patients at risk of unfavourable post-transplant development by comparing it to the Transplant Evaluation Rating Scale (TERS), the established measure for pretransplant psychosocial evaluation. METHOD: One hundred nineteen kidney, liver, and heart transplant candidates were evaluated using the INTERMED, TERS, SF-36, EuroQol, Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), and Hospital Anxiety & Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: We found significant relationships between the INTERMED and the TERS scores. The INTERMED highly correlated with the HADS,MADRS, and mental and physical health scores of the SF-36 Health Survey. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the INTERMED instrument for pretransplant evaluation. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate the different qualities of INTERMED and TERS in clinical practice. The advantages of the psychiatric focus of the TERS and the biopsychosocial perspective of the INTERMED are discussed in the context of current literature on integrated care.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Integrated application of geochemical and geophysical methods for hydrogeological impact assessment for tunneling in fractured rock

The interaction of tunneling with groundwater is a problem both from an environmental and an engineering point of view. In fact, tunnel drilling may cause a drawdown of piezometric levels and water inflows into tunnels that may cause problems during excavation of the tunnel. While the influence of tunneling on the regional groundwater systems may be adequately predicted in porous media using analytical solutions, such an approach is difficult to apply in fractured rocks. Numerical solutions are preferable and various conceptual approaches have been proposed to describe and model groundwater flow through fractured rock masses, ranging from equivalent continuum models to discrete fracture network simulation models. However, their application needs many preliminary investigations on the behavior of the groundwater system based on hydrochemical and structural data. To study large scale flow systems in fractured rocks of mountainous terrains, a comprehensive study was conducted in southern Switzerland, using as case studies two infrastructures actually under construction: (i) the Monte Ceneri base railway tunnel (Ticino), and the (ii) San Fedele highway tunnel (Roveredo, Graubiinden). The chosen approach in this study combines the temporal and spatial variation of geochemical and geophysical measurements. About 60 localities from both surface and underlying tunnels were temporarily and spatially monitored during more than one year. At first, the project was focused on the collection of hydrochemical and structural data. A number of springs, selected in the area surrounding the infrastructures, were monitored for discharge, electric conductivity, pH, and temperature. Water samples (springs, tunnel inflows and rains) were taken for isotopic analysis; in particular the stable isotope composition (δ2Η, δ180 values) can reflect the origin of the water, because of spatial (recharge altitude, topography, etc.) and temporal (seasonal) effects on precipitation which in turn strongly influence the isotopic composition of groundwater. Tunnel inflows in the accessible parts of the tunnels were also sampled and, if possible, monitored with time. Noble-gas concentrations and their isotope ratios were used in selected locations to better understand the origin and the circulation of the groundwater. In addition, electrical resistivity and VLF-type electromagnetic surveys were performed to identify water bearing fractures and/or weathered areas that could be intersected at depth during tunnel construction. The main goal of this work was to demonstrate that these hydrogeological data and geophysical methods, combined with structural and hydrogeological information, can be successfully used in order to develop hydrogeological conceptual models of the groundwater flow in regions to be exploited for tunnels. The main results of the project are: (i) to have successfully tested the application of electrical resistivity and VLF-electromagnetic surveys to asses water-bearing zones during tunnel drilling; (ii) to have verified the usefulness of noble gas, major ion and stable isotope compositions as proxies for the detection of faults and to understand the origin of the groundwater and its flow regimes (direct rain water infiltration or groundwater of long residence time); and (iii) to have convincingly tested the combined application of a geochemical and geophysical approach to assess and predict the vulnerability of springs to tunnel drilling. - L'interférence entre eaux souterraines et des tunnels pose des problèmes environnementaux et de génie civile. En fait, la construction d'un tunnel peut faire abaisser le niveau des nappes piézométriques et faire infiltrer de l'eau dans le tunnel et ainsi créer des problème pendant l'excavation. Alors que l'influence de la construction d'un tunnel sur la circulation régionale de l'eau souterraine dans des milieux poreux peut être prédite relativement facilement par des solution analytiques de modèles, ceci devient difficile dans des milieux fissurés. Dans ce cas-là, des solutions numériques sont préférables et plusieurs approches conceptuelles ont été proposées pour décrire et modéliser la circulation d'eau souterraine à travers les roches fissurées, en allant de modèles d'équivalence continue à des modèles de simulation de réseaux de fissures discrètes. Par contre, leur application demande des investigations importantes concernant le comportement du système d'eau souterraine basées sur des données hydrochimiques et structurales. Dans le but d'étudier des grands systèmes de circulation d'eau souterraine dans une région de montagnes, une étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction: (i) Le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri (Tessin) et (ii) le tunnel routière de San Fedele (Roveredo, Grisons). L'approche choisie dans cette étude est la combinaison de variations temporelles et spatiales des mesures géochimiques et géophysiques. Environs 60 localités situées à la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels soujacents ont été suiviès du point de vue temporel et spatial pendant plus de un an. Dans un premier temps le projet se focalisait sur la collecte de données hydrochimiques et structurales. Un certain nombre de sources, sélectionnées dans les environs des infrastructures étudiées ont été suivies pour le débit, la conductivité électrique, le pH et la température. De l'eau (sources, infiltration d'eau de tunnel et pluie) a été échantillonnés pour des analyses isotopiques; ce sont surtout les isotopes stables (δ2Η, δ180) qui peuvent indiquer l'origine d'une eaux, à cause de la dépendance d'effets spatiaux (altitude de recharge, topographie etc.) ainsi que temporels (saisonaux) sur les précipitations météoriques , qui de suite influencent ainsi la composition isotopique de l'eau souterraine. Les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels dans les parties accessibles ont également été échantillonnées et si possible suivies au cours du temps. La concentration de gaz nobles et leurs rapports isotopiques ont également été utilisées pour quelques localités pour mieux comprendre l'origine et la circulation de l'eau souterraine. En plus, des campagnes de mesures de la résistivité électrique et électromagnétique de type VLF ont été menées afin d'identifier des zone de fractures ou d'altération qui pourraient interférer avec les tunnels en profondeur pendant la construction. Le but principal de cette étude était de démontrer que ces données hydrogéologiques et géophysiques peuvent être utilisées avec succès pour développer des modèles hydrogéologiques conceptionels de tunnels. Les résultats principaux de ce travail sont : i) d'avoir testé avec succès l'application de méthodes de la tomographie électrique et des campagnes de mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF afin de trouver des zones riches en eau pendant l'excavation d'un tunnel ; ii) d'avoir prouvé l'utilité des gaz nobles, des analyses ioniques et d'isotopes stables pour déterminer l'origine de l'eau infiltrée (de la pluie par le haut ou ascendant de l'eau remontant des profondeurs) et leur flux et pour déterminer la position de failles ; et iii) d'avoir testé d'une manière convainquant l'application combinée de méthodes géochimiques et géophysiques pour juger et prédire la vulnérabilité de sources lors de la construction de tunnels. - L'interazione dei tunnel con il circuito idrico sotterraneo costituisce un problema sia dal punto di vista ambientale che ingegneristico. Lo scavo di un tunnel puô infatti causare abbassamenti dei livelli piezometrici, inoltre le venute d'acqua in galleria sono un notevole problema sia in fase costruttiva che di esercizio. Nel caso di acquiferi in materiale sciolto, l'influenza dello scavo di un tunnel sul circuito idrico sotterraneo, in genere, puô essere adeguatamente predetta attraverso l'applicazione di soluzioni analitiche; al contrario un approccio di questo tipo appare inadeguato nel caso di scavo in roccia. Per gli ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono piuttosto preferibili soluzioni numeriche e, a tal proposito, sono stati proposti diversi approcci concettuali; nella fattispecie l'ammasso roccioso puô essere modellato come un mezzo discreto ο continuo équivalente. Tuttavia, una corretta applicazione di qualsiasi modello numerico richiede necessariamente indagini preliminari sul comportamento del sistema idrico sotterraneo basate su dati idrogeochimici e geologico strutturali. Per approfondire il tema dell'idrogeologia in ammassi rocciosi fratturati tipici di ambienti montani, è stato condotto uno studio multidisciplinare nel sud della Svizzera sfruttando come casi studio due infrastrutture attualmente in costruzione: (i) il tunnel di base del Monte Ceneri (canton Ticino) e (ii) il tunnel autostradale di San Fedele (Roveredo, canton Grigioni). L'approccio di studio scelto ha cercato di integrare misure idrogeochimiche sulla qualité e quantité delle acque e indagini geofisiche. Nella fattispecie sono state campionate le acque in circa 60 punti spazialmente distribuiti sia in superficie che in sotterraneo; laddove possibile il monitoraggio si è temporalmente prolungato per più di un anno. In una prima fase, il progetto di ricerca si è concentrato sull'acquisizione dati. Diverse sorgenti, selezionate nelle aree di possibile influenza attorno allé infrastrutture esaminate, sono state monitorate per quel che concerne i parametri fisico-chimici: portata, conduttività elettrica, pH e temperatura. Campioni d'acqua sono stati prelevati mensilmente su sorgenti, venute d'acqua e precipitazioni, per analisi isotopiche; nella fattispecie, la composizione in isotopi stabili (δ2Η, δ180) tende a riflettere l'origine delle acque, in quanto, variazioni sia spaziali (altitudine di ricarica, topografia, etc.) che temporali (variazioni stagionali) della composizione isotopica delle precipitazioni influenzano anche le acque sotterranee. Laddove possibile, sono state campionate le venute d'acqua in galleria sia puntualmente che al variare del tempo. Le concentrazioni dei gas nobili disciolti nell'acqua e i loro rapporti isotopici sono stati altresi utilizzati in alcuni casi specifici per meglio spiegare l'origine delle acque e le tipologie di circuiti idrici sotterranei. Inoltre, diverse indagini geofisiche di resistività elettrica ed elettromagnetiche a bassissima frequenza (VLF) sono state condotte al fine di individuare le acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso. Principale obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato dimostrare come misure idrogeochimiche ed indagini geofisiche possano essere integrate alio scopo di sviluppare opportuni modelli idrogeologici concettuali utili per lo scavo di opere sotterranee. I principali risultati ottenuti al termine di questa ricerca sono stati: (i) aver testato con successo indagini geofisiche (ERT e VLF-EM) per l'individuazione di acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso e che possano essere causa di venute d'acqua in galleria durante lo scavo di tunnel; (ii) aver provato l'utilità di analisi su gas nobili, ioni maggiori e isotopi stabili per l'individuazione di faglie e per comprendere l'origine delle acque sotterranee (acque di recente infiltrazione ο provenienti da circolazioni profonde); (iii) aver testato in maniera convincente l'integrazione delle indagini geofisiche e di misure geochimiche per la valutazione della vulnérabilité delle sorgenti durante lo scavo di nuovi tunnel. - "La NLFA (Nouvelle Ligne Ferroviaire à travers les Alpes) axe du Saint-Gothard est le plus important projet de construction de Suisse. En bâtissant la nouvelle ligne du Saint-Gothard, la Suisse réalise un des plus grands projets de protection de l'environnement d'Europe". Cette phrase, qu'on lit comme présentation du projet Alptransit est particulièrement éloquente pour expliquer l'utilité des nouvelles lignes ferroviaires transeuropéens pour le développement durable. Toutefois, comme toutes grandes infrastructures, la construction de nouveaux tunnels ont des impacts inévitables sur l'environnement. En particulier, le possible drainage des eaux souterraines réalisées par le tunnel peut provoquer un abaissement du niveau des nappes piézométriques. De plus, l'écoulement de l'eau à l'intérieur du tunnel, conduit souvent à des problèmes d'ingénierie. Par exemple, d'importantes infiltrations d'eau dans le tunnel peuvent compliquer les phases d'excavation, provoquant un retard dans l'avancement et dans le pire des cas, peuvent mettre en danger la sécurité des travailleurs. Enfin, l'infiltration d'eau peut être un gros problème pendant le fonctionnement du tunnel. Du point de vue de la science, avoir accès à des infrastructures souterraines représente une occasion unique d'obtenir des informations géologiques en profondeur et pour échantillonner des eaux autrement inaccessibles. Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé une approche pluridisciplinaire qui intègre des mesures d'étude hydrogéochimiques effectués sur les eaux de surface et des investigations géophysiques indirects, tels que la tomographic de résistivité électrique (TRE) et les mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF. L'étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction, qui sont le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri, une partie du susmentionné projet Alptransit, situé entièrement dans le canton Tessin, et le tunnel routière de San Fedele, situé a Roveredo dans le canton des Grisons. Le principal objectif était de montrer comment il était possible d'intégrer les deux approches, géophysiques et géochimiques, afin de répondre à la question de ce que pourraient être les effets possibles dû au drainage causés par les travaux souterrains. L'accès aux galeries ci-dessus a permis une validation adéquate des enquêtes menées confirmant, dans chaque cas, les hypothèses proposées. A cette fin, nous avons fait environ 50 profils géophysiques (28 imageries électrique bidimensionnels et 23 électromagnétiques) dans les zones de possible influence par le tunnel, dans le but d'identifier les fractures et les discontinuités dans lesquelles l'eau souterraine peut circuler. De plus, des eaux ont été échantillonnés dans 60 localités situées la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels subjacents, le suivi mensuelle a duré plus d'un an. Nous avons mesurés tous les principaux paramètres physiques et chimiques: débit, conductivité électrique, pH et température. De plus, des échantillons d'eaux ont été prélevés pour l'analyse mensuelle des isotopes stables de l'hydrogène et de l'oxygène (δ2Η, δ180). Avec ces analyses, ainsi que par la mesure des concentrations des gaz rares dissous dans les eaux et de leurs rapports isotopiques que nous avons effectués dans certains cas spécifiques, il était possible d'expliquer l'origine des différents eaux souterraines, les divers modes de recharge des nappes souterraines, la présence de possible phénomènes de mélange et, en général, de mieux expliquer les circulations d'eaux dans le sous-sol. Le travail, même en constituant qu'une réponse partielle à une question très complexe, a permis d'atteindre certains importants objectifs. D'abord, nous avons testé avec succès l'applicabilité des méthodes géophysiques indirectes (TRE et électromagnétiques de type VLF) pour prédire la présence d'eaux souterraines dans le sous-sol des massifs rocheux. De plus, nous avons démontré l'utilité de l'analyse des gaz rares, des isotopes stables et de l'analyses des ions majeurs pour la détection de failles et pour comprendre l'origine des eaux souterraines (eau de pluie par le haut ou eau remontant des profondeurs). En conclusion, avec cette recherche, on a montré que l'intégration des ces informations (géophysiques et géochimiques) permet le développement de modèles conceptuels appropriés, qui permettant d'expliquer comment l'eau souterraine circule. Ces modèles permettent de prévoir les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels et de prédire la vulnérabilité de sources et des autres ressources en eau lors de construction de tunnels.

Vulnerability to schizophrenia: relevance of patients' subjective experience for empirical and clinical work.

Efforts are being made by clinicians and researchers to accurately delineate phenotypic traits of individuals at enhanced risk of schizophrenia. This issue is important for a better understanding of the etiopathogenic mechanisms of the disease and for the building up of programs of primary prevention. We suggest that disturbances of subjective experience, although difficult to operationalize, are an important-but until now neglected-core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. We advocate the development of valid and reliable instruments in order to allow the assessment of basic symptoms and disturbances of Self-experience. Delineation of vulnerability to schizophrenia cannot rely solely on neuropsychological and neurophysiological data, as prevention programs will be performed mainly by clinicians.