The forced oscillations of submerged bodies

The increasing use of very light structures in aerospace applications are given rise to the need of taking into account the effects of the surrounding media in the motion of a structure (as for instance, in modal testing of solar panels or antennae) as it is usually performed in the motion of bodies submerged in water in marine applications. New methods are in development aiming at to determine rigid-body properties (the center of mass position and inertia properties) from the results of oscillations tests (at low frequencies during modal testing, by exciting the rigid-body modes only) by using the equations of the rigid-body dynamics. As it is shown in this paper, the effect of the surrounding media significantly modifies the oscillation dynamics in the case of light structures and therefore this effect should be taken into account in the development of the above-mentioned methods. The aim of the paper is to show that, if a central point exists for the aerodynamic forces acting on the body, the motion equations for the small amplitude rotational and translational oscillations can be expressed in a form which is a generalization of the motion equations for a body in vacuum, thus allowing to obtain a physical idea of the motion and aerodynamic effects and also significantly simplifying the calculation of the solutions and the interpretation of the results. In the formulation developed here the translational oscillations and the rotational motion around the center of mass are decoupled, as is the case for the rigid-body motion in vacuum, whereas in the classical added mass formulation the six motion equations are coupled. Also in this paper the nonsteady motion of small amplitude of a rigid body submerged in an ideal, incompressible fluid is considered in order to define the conditions for the existence of the central point in the case of a three-dimensional body. The results here presented are also of interest in marine applications.

An observational and theoretical study of the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Automating human thought processes for a UAV forced landing

This paper describes the current status of a program to develop an automated forced landing system for a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This automated system seeks to emulate human pilot thought processes when planning for and conducting an engine-off emergency landing. Firstly, a path planning algorithm that extends Dubins curves to 3D space is presented. This planning element is then combined with a nonlinear guidance and control logic, and simulated test results demonstrate the robustness of this approach to strong winds during a glided descent. The average path deviation errors incurred are comparable to or even better than that of manned, powered aircraft. Secondly, a study into suitable multi-criteria decision making approaches and the problems that confront the decision-maker is presented. From this study, it is believed that decision processes that utilize human expert knowledge and fuzzy logic reasoning are most suited to the problem at hand, and further investigations will be conducted to identify the particular technique/s to be implemented in simulations and field tests. The automated UAV forced landing approach presented in this paper is promising, and will allow the progression of this technology from the development and simulation stages through to a prototype system

Guided chaos : path planning and control for a UAV-forced landing

In recent years, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been widely used in combat, and their potential applications in civil and commercial roles are also receiving considerable attention by industry and the research community. There are numerous published reports of UAVs used in Earth science missions [1], fire-fighting [2], and border security [3] trials, with other speculative deployments, including applications in agriculture, communications, and traffic monitoring. However, none of these UAVs can demonstrate an equivalent level of safety to manned aircraft, particularly in the case of an engine failure, which would require an emergency or forced landing. This may be arguably the main factor that has prevented these UAV trials from becoming full-scale commercial operations, as well as restricted operations of civilian UAVs to only within segregated airspace.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Sloshing motion of water in a moonpool

This thesis is concerned with the sloshing motion of water in a moonpool. It is a relatively new problem, that is particularly predominant in moonpools with relatively large dimensions. The problem is further complicated by the additional behaviour of vertical oscillation. It is inevitable that large moonpools will be needed as offshore technology advances, therefore making a problem an important one. The research involves two parts, the theoretical and experimental study. The theoretical study consists of idealising the moonpool to a two dimensional system, represented by two surface piercing parallel barriers at a distance 2a apart. The barriers are forced to undergo roll motion which in turn generates waves. These travelling waves are travelling in opposite directions to each other and have the same amplitude and period, and thus can be expressed in terms of a standing wave. This is mathematically achieved by applying the theory of wavemaking, and therefore the wave amplitude at the side wall can be evaluated at near resonant conditions. The experimental study comprises of comparing the results obtained from the tank and moonpool experiments. The rolling motion creates the sloshing waves in both cases, in addition the vertical oscillation in the moonpool is produced by generating waves at one end of the towing tank. Apart from highlighting influencing parameters, the resonant frequencies obtained from these experiments are then compared with the theoretical values. Experiments in demonstrating the effect of increasing damping with the aid of baffles are also conducted. This is an important aspect which is very necessary if operations in launching and retrieving are to be carried out efficiently and safely.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Forced landing technologies for unmanned aerial vehicles : towards safer operations

While using unmanned systems in combat is not new, what will be new in the foreseeable future is how such systems are used and integrated in the civilian space. The potential use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in civil and commercial applications is becoming a fact, and is receiving considerable attention by industry and the research community. The majority of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles performing civilian tasks are restricted to flying only in segregated space, and not within the National Airspace. The areas that UAVs are restricted to flying in are typically not above populated areas, which in turn are the areas most useful for civilian applications. The reasoning behind the current restrictions is mainly due to the fact that current UAV technologies are not able to demonstrate an Equivalent Level of Safety to manned aircraft, particularly in the case of an engine failure which would require an emergency or forced landing. This chapter will preset and guide the reader through a number of developments that would facilitate the integration of UAVs into the National Airspace. Algorithms for UAV Sense-and-Avoid and Force Landings are recognized as two major enabling technologies that will allow the integration of UAVs in the civilian airspace. The following sections will describe some of the techniques that are currently being tested at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation (ARCAA), which places emphasis on the detection of candidate landing sites using computer vision, the planning of the descent path trajectory for the UAV, and the decision making process behind the selection of the final landing site.

Path planning, guidance and control for a UAV forced landing

A forced landing is an unscheduled event in flight requiring an emergency landing, and is most commonly attributed to engine failure, failure of avionics or adverse weather. Since the ability to conduct a successful forced landing is the primary indicator for safety in the aviation industry, automating this capability for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will help facilitate their integration into, and subsequent routine operations over civilian airspace. Currently, there is no commercial system available to perform this task; however, a team at the Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation (ARCAA) is working towards developing such an automated forced landing system. This system, codenamed Flight Guardian, will operate onboard the aircraft and use machine vision for site identification, artificial intelligence for data assessment and evaluation, and path planning, guidance and control techniques to actualize the landing. This thesis focuses on research specific to the third category, and presents the design, testing and evaluation of a Trajectory Generation and Guidance System (TGGS) that navigates the aircraft to land at a chosen site, following an engine failure. Firstly, two algorithms are developed that adapts manned aircraft forced landing techniques to suit the UAV planning problem. Algorithm 1 allows the UAV to select a route (from a library) based on a fixed glide range and the ambient wind conditions, while Algorithm 2 uses a series of adjustable waypoints to cater for changing winds. A comparison of both algorithms in over 200 simulated forced landings found that using Algorithm 2, twice as many landings were within the designated area, with an average lateral miss distance of 200 m at the aimpoint. These results present a baseline for further refinements to the planning algorithms. A significant contribution is seen in the design of the 3-D Dubins Curves planning algorithm, which extends the elementary concepts underlying 2-D Dubins paths to account for powerless flight in three dimensions. This has also resulted in the development of new methods in testing for path traversability, in losing excess altitude, and in the actual path formation to ensure aircraft stability. Simulations using this algorithm have demonstrated lateral and vertical miss distances of under 20 m at the approach point, in wind speeds of up to 9 m/s. This is greater than a tenfold improvement on Algorithm 2 and emulates the performance of manned, powered aircraft. The lateral guidance algorithm originally developed by Park, Deyst, and How (2007) is enhanced to include wind information in the guidance logic. A simple assumption is also made that reduces the complexity of the algorithm in following a circular path, yet without sacrificing performance. Finally, a specific method of supplying the correct turning direction is also used. Simulations have shown that this new algorithm, named the Enhanced Nonlinear Guidance (ENG) algorithm, performs much better in changing winds, with cross-track errors at the approach point within 2 m, compared to over 10 m using Park's algorithm. A fourth contribution is made in designing the Flight Path Following Guidance (FPFG) algorithm, which uses path angle calculations and the MacCready theory to determine the optimal speed to fly in winds. This algorithm also uses proportional integral- derivative (PID) gain schedules to finely tune the tracking accuracies, and has demonstrated in simulation vertical miss distances of under 2 m in changing winds. A fifth contribution is made in designing the Modified Proportional Navigation (MPN) algorithm, which uses principles from proportional navigation and the ENG algorithm, as well as methods specifically its own, to calculate the required pitch to fly. This algorithm is robust to wind changes, and is easily adaptable to any aircraft type. Tracking accuracies obtained with this algorithm are also comparable to those obtained using the FPFG algorithm. For all three preceding guidance algorithms, a novel method utilising the geometric and time relationship between aircraft and path is also employed to ensure that the aircraft is still able to track the desired path to completion in strong winds, while remaining stabilised. Finally, a derived contribution is made in modifying the 3-D Dubins Curves algorithm to suit helicopter flight dynamics. This modification allows a helicopter to autonomously track both stationary and moving targets in flight, and is highly advantageous for applications such as traffic surveillance, police pursuit, security or payload delivery. Each of these achievements serves to enhance the on-board autonomy and safety of a UAV, which in turn will help facilitate the integration of UAVs into civilian airspace for a wider appreciation of the good that they can provide. The automated UAV forced landing planning and guidance strategies presented in this thesis will allow the progression of this technology from the design and developmental stages, through to a prototype system that can demonstrate its effectiveness to the UAV research and operations community.

A forced titration study of the antioxidant and immunomodulatory effects of Ambrotose AO supplement

Background Oxidative stress plays a role in acute and chronic inflammatory disease and antioxidant supplementation has demonstrated beneficial effects in the treatment of these conditions. This study was designed to determine the optimal dose of an antioxidant supplement in healthy volunteers to inform a Phase 3 clinical trial. Methods The study was designed as a combined Phase 1 and 2 open label, forced titration dose response study in healthy volunteers (n = 21) to determine both acute safety and efficacy. Participants received a dietary supplement in a forced titration over five weeks commencing with a no treatment baseline through 1, 2, 4 and 8 capsules. The primary outcome measurement was ex vivo changes in serum oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC). The secondary outcome measures were undertaken as an exploratory investigation of immune function. Results A significant increase in antioxidant activity (serum ORAC) was observed between baseline (no capsules) and the highest dose of 8 capsules per day (p = 0.040) representing a change of 36.6%. A quadratic function for dose levels was fitted in order to estimate a dose response curve for estimating the optimal dose. The quadratic component of the curve was significant (p = 0.047), with predicted serum ORAC scores increasing from the zero dose to a maximum at a predicted dose of 4.7 capsules per day and decreasing for higher doses. Among the secondary outcome measures, a significant dose effect was observed on phagocytosis of granulocytes, and a significant increase was also observed on Cox 2 expression. Conclusion This study suggests that Ambrotose AO® capsules appear to be safe and most effective at a dosage of 4 capsules/day. It is important that this study is not over interpreted; it aimed to find an optimal dose to assess the dietary supplement using a more rigorous clinical trial design. The study achieved this aim and demonstrated that the dietary supplement has the potential to increase antioxidant activity. The most significant limitation of this study was that it was open label Phase 1/Phase 2 trial and is subject to potential bias that is reduced with the use of randomization and blinding. To confirm the benefits of this dietary supplement these effects now need to be demonstrated in a Phase 3 randomised controlled trial (RCT).