A STUDY ON SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT RISK, RISK MANAGEMENT, PROJECT OUTCOMES AND THEIR INTER-RELATIONSHIP

This research was undertaken with an objective of studying software development project risk, risk management, project outcomes and their inter-relationship in the Indian context. Validated instruments were used to measure risk, risk management and project outcome in software development projects undertaken in India. A second order factor model was developed for risk with five first order factors. Risk management was also identified as a second order construct with four first order factors. These structures were validated using confirmatory factor analysis. Variation in risk across categories of select organization / project characteristics was studied through a series of one way ANOVA tests. Regression model was developed for each of the risk factors by linking it to risk management factors and project /organization characteristics. Similarly regression models were developed for the project outcome measures linking them to risk factors. Integrated models linking risk factors, risk management factors and project outcome measures were tested through structural equation modeling. Quality of the software developed was seen to have a positive relationship with risk management and negative relationship with risk. The other outcome variables, namely time overrun and cost over run, had strong positive relationship with risk. Risk management did not have direct effect on overrun variables. Risk was seen to be acting as an intervening variable between risk management and overrun variables.

Inter- State Variations in Productivity trends and Technological Change in Indian industry

The present study entitled ‘Inter-State Variations in Manufacturing Productivity and Technological Changes in India’ covers a period of 38 years from l960 tol998-99. The study is mainly based on ASI data. The study starts with a discussion of the major facilitating factors of industrialization, namely, historical forces, public policy and infrastructure facilities. These are discussed in greater details in the context of our discussion on Perrox’s (1998) ‘growth pole’ and ‘development pole’, Hirschman’s (1958) ‘industrial centers’ and Myrdal’s ‘spread effect’ Most of the existing literature more or less agrees that the process of industrialization has not been unifonn in all Indian states. There has been a decline in inter-state industrial disparities over time. This aspect is dealt at some length in the third chapter. An important element that deserves detailed attention is the intra-regional differences in industrialisation. Regional industrialisation implies the emergence of a few focal points and industrial regions. Calcutta, Bombay and Madras were the initial focal points. Later other centers like Bangalore, Amritsar, Ahemedabad etc. emerged as nodal points in other states. All major states account for focal points. The analysis made in the third chapter shows that industrial activities generally converge to one or two focal points and industrial regions have emerged out of the focal points in almost all states. One of the general features of these complexes and regions is that they approximately accommodate 50 to 75 percent of the total industrial units and workers in the state. Such convergence is seen hands in glow with urbanization. It was further seen that intra-regional industrial disparity comes down in industrial states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

Inter-simple sequence repeat and aggressiveness analyses revealed high genetic diversity, recombination and long-range dispersal in Fusarium culmorum

Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) analysis and aggressiveness assays were used to investigate genetic variability within a global collection of Fusarium culmorum isolates. A set of four ISSR primers were tested, of which three primers amplified a total of 37 bands out of which 30 (81%) were polymorphic. The intraspecific diversity was high, ranging from four to 28 different ISSR genotypes for F. culmorum depending on the primer. The combined analysis of ISSR data revealed 59 different genotypes clustered into seven distinct clades amongst 75 isolates of F. culmorum examined. All the isolates were assayed to test their aggressiveness on a winter wheat cv. 'Armada'. A significant quantitative variation for aggressiveness was found among the isolates. The ISSR and aggressiveness variation existed on a macro- as well as micro-geographical scale. The data suggested a long-range dispersal of F. culmorum and indicated that this fungus may have been introduced into Canada from Europe. In addition to the high level of intraspecific diversity observed in F. culmorum, the index of multilocus association calculated using ISSR data indicated that reproduction in F. culmorum cannot be exclusively clonal and recombination is likely to occur.

Prosodie et Syndrome de Williams : une étude inter-langue

L’objectif de l’étude est de mieux cerner les particularités acoustiques de la prosodie d’enfants porteurs du SW de langue maternelle anglaise et de langue maternelle française. Des productions spontanées ont été recueillies à l’aide de la tâche de narration « Grenouille, où es-tu ? » (Mayer, 1969). La prosodie des enfants SW est comparée à celle de deux groupes typiques, un de même âge chronologique et un de même âge développemental que le groupe avec SW La population se compose de 1. 7 enfants SW de langue française âgés entre 6 ans et 13 ans 7 mois, appariés à deux groupes typiques et 2. 13 enfants SW de langue anglaise âgés entre 6 ans et 13 ans 11 mois, appariés à deux groupes typiques. Notre analyse porte sur un paramètre acoustique de la prosodie des enfants avec SW : la Variation de la Fréquence Fondamentale. Les résultats sont discutés sur les points suivants : 1. les différences et similitudes entre les profils prosodiques des enfants avec SW et des enfants typiques de même âge chronologique ou développemental, en langue anglaise et en langue française, 2. les différences entre les enfants avec SWde langue maternelle anglaise et les enfants avec SWde langue maternelle française et 3. le développement prosodique observé chez les enfants avec SW. (For English abstract see "Additional Information")

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

In vitro evaluation of single- and multi-strain probiotics: inter-species inhibition between probiotic strains, and inhibition of pathogens

Many studies comparing the effects of single- and multi-strain probiotics on pathogen inhibition compare treatments with different concentrations. They also do not examine the possibility of inhibition between probiotic strains with a mixture. We tested the ability of 14 single-species probiotics to inhibit each other using a cross-streak assay, and agar spot test. We then tested the ability of 15 single-species probiotics and 5 probiotic mixtures to inhibit C. difficile, E. coli and S. Typhimurium, using the agar spot test. Testing was done with mixtures created in two ways: one group contained component species incubated together, the other group of mixtures was made using component species which had been incubated separately, equalised to equal optical density, and then mixed in equal volumes. Inhibition was observed for all combinations of probiotics, suggesting that when used as such there may be inhibition between probiotics, potentially reducing efficacy of the mixture. Significant inter-species variation was seen against each pathogen. When single species were tested against mixtures, the multi-species preparations displayed significantly (p<0.05 or less) greater inhibition of pathogens in 12 out of 24 cases. Despite evidence that probiotic species will inhibit each other when incubated together in vitro, in many cases a probiotic mixture was more effective at inhibiting pathogens than its component species when tested at approximately equal concentrations of biomass. This suggests that using a probiotic mixture might be more effective at reducing gastrointestinal infections, and that creating a mixture using species with different effects against different pathogens may have a broader spectrum of action that a single provided by a single strain.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Africanized honey bee (Apis mellifera) venom profiling: Seasonal variation of melittin and phospholipase A(2) levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Minimizing inter-genotypic competition effects to predict genetic values and selection in forestry genetic tests

The effect of competition is an important source of variation in breeding experiments. This study aimed to compare the selection of plants of open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus with and without the use of competition covariables. Genetic values were determined for each family and tree and for the traits height, diameter at breast height and timber volume in a randomized block design, resulting in the variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective size and selection coincidence, with and without the use of covariables. Intergenotypic competition is an important factor of environmental variation. The use of competition covariables generally reduces the estimates of variance components and influences genetic gains in the studied traits. Intergenotypic competition biases the selection of open-pollinated eucalypt progenies, and can result in an erroneous choice of superior genotypes; the inclusion of covariables in the model reduces this influence.

Boto cinza (Sotalia guianensis, Van Benédén, 1864) (Cetacea, Delphinidae): Atividade aérea, forrageio e interações inter-específicas, na Praia de Pipa (Tibau do Sul RN) e estudo comparativo entre duas populações do Nordeste do Brasil

Sotalia guianensis is a small cetacean of the Delphinidae family, with coastal habits and whose area of distribution ranges from Florianópolis (27º35'S, 48º34'W), in Brazil, to Honduras (15º58'N, 85º42'W). At Pipa beach, on the south coast of RN state, in Brazil, the species occur throughout the year. The present study was carried out in two bays, which are bordered by cliffs. The animals were monitored from vantage points, using the "Ad libitum" and "all the occurrences" methods; during the years of 1999 and 2004. The study was divided in 4 chapters: Behavioral standards of two populations of gray dolphin, (Sotalia guianensis, Van Benédén, 1864) in the northeast of Brazil; Aerial activity of the gray dolphin: its possible function and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors; The influence of daily and monthly variation of the tides, of the period of the day and group size on the gray dolphin forage activity; kleptoparasitism interactions of frigatebird (Fregata magnificens, Mattheus, 1914) during the gray dolphin forage activity. The results have shown that the gray dolphin has a varied and complex behavioral repertoire. The leap is the most frequent behavior; the aerial activity is diffuse during daylight and is influenced by some factors, such as the level of the tide and social factors. The gray dolphin, when in the bay, most frequently feeds isolate or in small groups. The forage is diffuse during daylight; however, being more frequent in the morning and is influenced by the daily and monthly variation of the tide. At Pipa beach, kleptoparasitarian interactions were registered between the gray dolphin and the frigatebird (Fregata magnificens). The frigatebird forage strategy consists basically of two ways: to fly over great extensions searching for dead fish and to steal food (kleptoparasitism). These interactions were predominantly carried out between immature and female adult birds and adult and immature dolphins, and occurred during daylight. The present study can be considered an initial landmark to a better knowledge on the gray dolphin surface behavior, especially regarding the aerial behavioral repertoire and forage strategy of this species. However, it is necessary to continue these studies, so that we can understand better the complex social life of these animals and thus create effective measures for its conservation

Variation of the oviposition preferences of Aedes aegypti in function of substratum and humidity

Two Aedes aegypti (L.) populations were studied in the laboratory regarding the preference for three types of breeding sites, i.e., flasks containing only water, flasks with a plant and flasks with a stick. Each of these breeding units was placed in one cage and the choice of the oviposition sites was determined for individual females and three females per experimental unit at two humidity levels. Preference for ovipositing on the water surface was observed and varied according to experimental unit and humidity. Mean hatching of eggs in water surface was 46.6%. Experiments with three females showed a more marked difference than when only one female was used. Inter and intrapopulation variability regarding oviposition sites was observed. The discrimination between the different oviposition substrates, hatching in water surface and its implication for mosquito control are discussed.

Invited review Giardia duodenalis: Inter-strain variability of proteins, antigens, proteases, isoenzymes and nucleic acids

Giardia duodenalis isolates from asymptomatic or symptomatic patients and from animals present similarities and differences in the protein composition, antigenic profile, pattern of proteases and isoenzymes, as well as in nucleic acids analysis. In the present overview, these differences and similarities are reviewed with emphasis in the host-parasite interplay and possible mechanisms of virulence of the protozoon.

The pioneering use of ISSR (Inter Simple Sequence Repeat) in Neotropical anurans: Preliminary assessment of genetic diversity in populations of Physalaemus cuvieri (Amphibia, Leiuperidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The role of chromosome variation in the speciation of the red brocket deer complex: the study of reproductive isolation in females

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)