Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

Skull Modularity in Neotropical Marsupials and Monkeys: Size Variation and Evolutionary Constraint and Flexibility

An organism is built through a series of contingent factors, yet it is determined by historical, physical, and developmental constraints. A constraint should not be understood as an absolute obstacle to evolution, as it may also generate new possibilities for evolutionary change. Modularity is, in this context, an important way of organizing biological information and has been recognized as a central concept in evolutionary biology bridging on developmental, genetics, morphological, biochemical, and physiological studies. In this article, we explore how modularity affects the evolution of a complex system in two mammalian lineages by analyzing correlation, variance/covariance, and residual matrices (without size variation). We use the multivariate response to selection equation to simulate the behavior of Eutheria and Metharia skulls in terms of their evolutionary flexibility and constraints. We relate these results to classical approaches based on morphological integration tests based on functional/developmental hypotheses. Eutherians (Neotropical primates) showed smaller magnitudes of integration compared with Metatheria (didelphids) and also skull modules more clearly delimited. Didelphids showed higher magnitudes of integration and their modularity is strongly influenced by within-groups size variation to a degree that evolutionary responses are basically aligned with size variation. Primates still have a good portion of the total variation based on size; however, their enhanced modularization allows a broader spectrum of responses, more similar to the selection gradients applied (enhanced flexibility). Without size variation, both groups become much more similar in terms of modularity patterns and magnitudes and, consequently, in their evolutionary flexibility. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol.) 314B:663-683, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

Allometric analysis of the ontogenetic variation and evolution of the skull in Caiman spix, 1825 (Crocodylia: Alligatoridae)

We studied ontogenetic variation in the shape of the skull among species of Caiman using principal component analysis. Comparison of multivariate allometric coefficients and ontogenetic trends between size and shape reveals that C. sclerops and C. yacare have similar ontogenetic processes, and they are more related to each other than either is to C. latirostris. Allometric relationships of the characters measured are similar in all species studied. The greater differences were in the width measurements, with higher coefficients in shape (second principal component) for C. latirostris, and length measurements with higher coefficients in shape for C. yacare and C. sclerops. The ontogenetic process leading to change in skull shape in the group seems to be plesiomorphic for elongation and derived for broadening. Statistical comparison of the ontogenetic trends with models of allometric heterochrony suggests that C. latirostris has diverged from the other species by a neotenic process, and that C. sclerops is separated from C. yacare by ontogenetic scaling (progenesis).

Space, diffusion and mobility

Given its origins in traditional dialectology, and given advances in our understanding of the social embedding of language variation, it is paradoxical that space should be one of the categories that has received least attention of all in variationist sociolinguistics. Until recently, space has largely been treated as an empty stage on which sociolinguistic processes are enacted. It has been unexamined, untheorized, and its role in shaping and being shaped by variation and change untested. One function of this chapter, therefore, is to assert that space makes a difference, and to begin, in a very hesitant way, to map out what a geographically informed variation analysis might need to address. It also examines variationist interactions with the related concept of mobility. It might be reasonable to think that human geographers would provide some clues on how to proceed. As we will see, they have engaged in a great deal of soul searching about the goals of their discipline, its very existence as a separate field of enquiry, and the directions it should take. Indeed there are remarkable parallels between the recent history of human geographic thought, and interest in language variation across space. Although space has been undertheorized in variation studies, a number of researchers, from the traditional dialectologists through to those interested in the dialectology of mobility and contact, have, of course, been actively engaged in research on geographical variation and language use. Their work will be contextualized here to highlight both the parallels with theory-building in human geography, but also some of the criticisms of earlier approaches which have fed through to human geography, but remain largely unquestioned in variationist practice. The chapter therefore presents a brief theoretical background to space and mobility, before exemplifying these concepts in variationist research through an examination of, for example, the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovations, the spatial configuration of linguistic boundaries and initial steps to examine the consequences of mobility for variationist research.

Genetic diversity, phenotypic variation and local adaptation in the alpine landscape: case studies with alpine plant species

Plant survival in alpine landscapes is constantly challenged by the harsh and often unpredictable environmental conditions. Steep environmental gradients and patchy distribution of habitats lead to small size and spatial isolation of populations and restrict gene flow. Agricultural land use has further increased the diversity of habitats below and above the treeline. We studied the consequences of the highly structured alpine landscape for evolutionary processes in four study plants: Epilobium fleischeri, Geum reptans, Campanula thyrsoides and Poa alpina. The main questions were: (1) How is genetic diversity distributed within and among populations and is it affected by altitude, population size or land use? (2) Do reproductive traits such as allocation to sexual or vegetative reproduction vary with altitude or land use? Furthermore, we studied if seed weight increases with altitude. Within-population genetic diversity of the four species was high and mostly not related to altitude and population size. Nevertheless, genetic differentiation among populations was pronounced and strongly increasing with distance. In Poa alpina genetic diversity was affected by land use. Results suggest considerable genetic drift among populations of alpine plants. Reproductive allocation was affected by altitude and land use in Poa alpina and by succession in Geum reptans. Seed weight was usually higher in alpine species than in related lowland species. We conclude that the evolutionary potential to respond to global change is mostly intact in alpine plants, even at high altitude. Phenotypic variability is shaped by adaptive as well as by random evolutionary processes; moreover plastic responses to growth conditions seem to be crucial for survival of plants in the alpine landscape.

Crowdsourcing language change with smartphone applications

Crowdsourcing linguistic phenomena with smartphone applications is relatively new. In linguistics, apps have predominantly been developed to create pronunciation dictionaries, to train acoustic models, and to archive endangered languages. This paper presents the first account of how apps can be used to collect data suitable for documenting language change: we created an app, Dialäkt Äpp (DÄ), which predicts users’ dialects. For 16 linguistic variables, users select a dialectal variant from a drop-down menu. DÄ then geographically locates the user’s dialect by suggesting a list of communes where dialect variants most similar to their choices are used. Underlying this prediction are 16 maps from the historical Linguistic Atlas of German-speaking Switzerland, which documents the linguistic situation around 1950. Where users disagree with the prediction, they can indicate what they consider to be their dialect’s location. With this information, the 16 variables can be assessed for language change. Thanks to the playfulness of its functionality, DÄ has reached many users; our linguistic analyses are based on data from nearly 60,000 speakers. Results reveal a relative stability for phonetic variables, while lexical and morphological variables seem more prone to change. Crowdsourcing large amounts of dialect data with smartphone apps has the potential to complement existing data collection techniques and to provide evidence that traditional methods cannot, with normal resources, hope to gather. Nonetheless, it is important to emphasize a range of methodological caveats, including sparse knowledge of users’ linguistic backgrounds (users only indicate age, sex) and users’ self-declaration of their dialect. These are discussed and evaluated in detail here. Findings remain intriguing nevertheless: as a means of quality control, we report that traditional dialectological methods have revealed trends similar to those found by the app. This underlines the validity of the crowdsourcing method. We are presently extending DÄ architecture to other languages.

CYP2D6 inherited variation and inhibiting medication use in relation to adverse breast cancer outcomes after tamoxifen therapy

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Do the Genetic or Environmental Determinants of Anxiety and Depression Change with Age? A Longitudinal Study of Australian Twins

Because the determinants of anxiety and depression in late adolescence and early adulthood may differ from those in later life, we investigated the temporal stability and magnitude of genetic and environmental correlates of symptoms of anxiety and depression across the life span. Data were collected from a population-based Australian sample of 4364 complete twin pairs and 777 singletons aged 20 to 96 years who were followed-up over three studies between 1980 and 1996. Each study contained the 14-item self-report DSSI/sAD scale which was used to measure recently experienced symptoms of anxiety and depression. Symptom scores were then divided and assigned to age intervals according to each subject's age at time of participation. We fitted genetic simplex models to take into account the longitudinal nature of the data. For male anxiety and depression, the best fitting simplex models comprised a single genetic innovation at age 20 which was transmitted, and explained genetic variation in anxiety and depression at ages 30, 40, 50 and 60. Most of the lifetime genetic variation in female anxiety and depression could also be explained by innovations at age 20 which were transmitted to all other ages; however, there were also smaller age-dependent genetic innovations at 30 for anxiety and at 40 and 70 for depression. Although the genetic determinants of anxiety and depression appear relatively stable across the life-span for males and females, there is some evidence to support additional mid-life and late age gene action in females for depression. The fact that mid-life onset for anxiety occurs one decade before depression is also consistent with a causal relationship (anxiety leading to depression) between these conditions. These findings have significance for large scale depression prevention projects.

Language change in young Panjabi/English children: implications for bilingual language assessment

This paper reports some of the more frequent language changes in Panjabi, the first language of bilingual Panjabi/English children in the West Midlands, UK. Spontaneous spoken data were collected in schools across both languages in three formatted elicitation procedures from 50 bilingual Panjabi/English-speaking children, aged 6–7 years old. Panjabi data from the children is analysed for lexical borrowings and code-switching with English. Several changes of vocabulary and word grammar patterns in Panjabi are identified, many due to interaction with English, and some due to developmental features of Panjabi. There is also evidence of pervasive changes of word order, suggesting a shift in Panjabi word order to that of English. Lexical choice is discussed in terms of language change rather than language deficit. The implications of a normative framework for comparison are explored. A psycholinguistic model interprets grammatical changes in Panjabi.

Formant-frequency variation and its effects on across-formant grouping in speech perception

How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints.

Formant-frequency variation and its effects on across-formant grouping in speech perception

How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013.

WAKING (TO) THINKING BEING: A STUDY OF EDUCATION, METAPHYSICS, MIND, AND LANGUAGE

This dissertation articulates the basic aims and achievements of education. It recognizes language as central to thinking, and philosophy and education as belonging profoundly to one another. The first step is to show that although philosophy can no longer claim to dictate the foundations of knowledge or of disciplines of inquiry, it still offers an exceptionally general level of self-understanding. Education is equally general and faces a similar crisis of self-identity, of coming to terms with reality. Language is the medium of thought and the repository of historical mind; so a child’s acquisition of language is her acquisition of rational freedom. This marks a metaphysical change: no longer merely an animal, she comes to exercise her powers of rationality, transcending her environment by seeking and expressing reasons for thinking and doing. She can think about herself in relation to the universe, hence philosophize and educate others in turn. The discussion then turns to the historical nature of language. The thinking already embedded in language always anticipates further questioning. Etymology serves as a model for philosophical understanding, and demonstrates how philosophy can continue to yield insights that are fundamental, but not foundational, to human life. The etymologies of some basic educational concepts disclose education as a leading out and into the midst of Being. The philosophical approach developed in previous chapters applies to the very idea of an educational aim. Discussion concerning the substantiality of educational ideals results in an impasse: one side recommends an open-­ended understanding of education’s aims; the other insists on a definitive account. However, educational ideals exhibit a conceptual duality: the fundamental achievements of education, such as rational freedom, are real; but how we should understand them remains an open question. The penultimate chapter investigates philosophical thinking as the fulfillment of rational freedom, whose creative insights can profoundly transform our everyday activities. That this transformative self-understanding is without end suggests the basic aims of education are unheimlich. The dissertation concludes with speculative reflection on the shape and nature of language, and with the suggestion that through education reality awakens to itself.