Adaptive control charts for attributes

We develop a general model for adaptive c, np, u and p control charts in which one, two or three design parameters (sample size, sampling interval and control limit width) switch between two values, according to the most recent process information. For a given in-control average sampling rate and a given false alarm rate, the adaptive chart detects changes in the process much faster than a chart with fixed parameters. Moreover, this study also offers general guidance on how to choose an effective design.

Planejamento econômico de gráficos de controle X para monitoramento de processos autocorrelacionados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise de velocidade por otimização do semblance na reflexão sísmica

Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral desenvolver uma metodologia sistemática para a inversão de dados de reflexão sísmica em arranjo ponto-médio-comum (PMC), partindo do caso 1D de variação vertical de velocidade e espessura que permite a obtenção de modelos de velocidades intervalares, v_int,n, as espessuras intervalares, z_n, e as velocidades média-quadrática, v_RMS,n, em seções PMC individualizadas. Uma consequência disso é a transformação direta destes valores do tempo para profundidade. Como contribuição a análise de velocidade, foram desenvolvidos dois métodos para atacar o problema baseado na estimativa de velocidade intervalar. O primeiro método foi baseado na marcação manual em seções PMC, e inversão por ajuste de curvas no sentido dos quadrados-mínimos. O segundo método foi baseado na otimização da função semblance para se obter uma marcação automática. A metodologia combinou dois tipos de otimização: um Método Global (Método Price ou Simplex), e um Método Local (Gradiente de Segunda Ordem ou Conjugado), submetidos a informação à priori e vínculos. A marcação de eventos na seção tempo-distância faz parte dos processos de inversão, e os pontos marcados constituem os dados de entrada juntamente com as informações à priori do modelo a ser ajustado. A marcação deve, por princípio, evitar eventos que representem múltiplas, difrações e interseções, e numa seção pode ser feita mais de 50 marcações de eventos, enquanto que num mapa semblance não se consegue marcar mais de 10 eventos de reflexão. A aplicação deste trabalho é voltada a dados sísmicos de bacias sedimentares em ambientes marinhos para se obter uma distribuição de velocidades para a subsuperfície, onde o modelo plano-horizontal é aplicado em seções PMC individualizadas, e cuja solução pode ser usada como um modelo inicial em processos posteriores. Os dados reais da Bacia Marinha usados neste trabalho foram levantados pela PETROBRAS em 1985, e a linha sísmica selecionada foi a de número L5519 da Bacia do Camamu, e o PMC apresentado é a de número 237. A linha é composta de 1098 pontos de tiro, com arranjo unilateraldireito. O intervalo de amostragem é 4 ms. O espaçamento entre os geofones é 13,34 m com o primeiro geofone localizado a 300 m da fonte. O espaçamento entre as fontes é de 26,68 m. Como conclusão geral, o método de estimativa de velocidade intervalar apresentada neste trabalho fica como suporte alternativo ao processo de análise de velocidades, onde se faz necessário um controle sobre a sequência de inversão dos PMCs ao longo da linha sísmica para que a solução possa ser usada como modelo inicial ao imageamento, e posterior inversão tomográfica. Como etapas futuras, podemos propor trabalhos voltados direto e especificamente a análise de velocidade sísmica estendendo o caso 2D de otimização do semblance ao caso 3D, estender o presente estudo para o caso baseado na teoria do raio imagem com a finalidade de produzir um mapa continuo de velocidades para toda a seção sísmica de forma automática.

Aplicação de análise de séries temporais em perfis de poço

Esta tese descreve a aplicação de análise de séries temporais em perfis de poço. Através desta técnica é possível avaliar-se a repetição e a resolução vertical de perfis, e determinar-se o intervalo de amostragem e a velocidade de perfilagem ideais para diferentes perfis. A comparação entre três poços é também feita, baseada num mesmo tipo de perfil. Para tanto, na seqüência utilizada, procurou-se manter num mesmo domínio os dados cuja quantidade total de amostras (N) por perfil não ultrapassou 2048. Desses dados, foram inicialmente retirados o valor médio das amostras e o alinhamento polinomial algébrico eventualmente nelas embutido. Em seguida, foi efetuada a aplicação do ponderador cossenoidal, do filtro passa-alta, da janela Hanning, do cálculo da função coerência, do espectro de fase, da razão sinal-ruído e dos espectros de potência do sinal e do ruído, nesta ordem. Para a função coerência, fez-se necessário o cálculo dos níveis de confiança de 50%, 90% e 95%. O cálculo do primeiro nível teve por base a necessidade de se determinar a resolução vertical de alguns perfis, e dos demais, a fim de que fosse obtida uma informação referente à localização daqueles níveis para a coerência calculada. Em relação ao espectro de fase, seu cálculo surgiu da necessidade de se obter uma informação adicional a respeito dos perfis manipulados, ou seja, o conhecimento da ocorrência ou não de deslocamento relativo de profundidade entre a seção principal e a seção repetida. A razão sinal-ruído foi calculada no sentido de possibilitar a comparação, como elemento avaliador dos diversos tipos de perfis, com a coerência e o cálculo dos espectros de potência. Os espectros de potência do sinal e do ruído foram calculados para se ter mais um parâmetro de avaliação da seção repetida, já que em tese, os espectros de potência do sinal e do ruído da seção repetida devem ser iguais aos respectivos espectros da seção principal. Os dados utilizados na aplicação da metodologia proposta foram fornecidos pela PETROBRÁS e oriundos de quatro poços da Bacia Potiguar emersa. Por questões de sigilo empresarial, os poços foram identificados como poços A, B, C e D. A avaliação da repetição entre diferentes tipos de perfis indica que, para o poço A, o perfil micro-esférico (MSFL) tem repetição melhor do que o perfil de porosidade neutrônica (CNL), o qual tem, por sua vez, repetição melhor do que o perfil de raios gama normal (GR). Para os perfis do poço D, uma diminuição da velocidade de perfilagem de 550 m/h para 275 m/h é vantajosa apenas para o perfil de porosidade neutrônica. Já a velocidade de perfilagem de 920 m/h, utilizada, na obtenção dos perfis do poço C, é totalmente inadequada para os perfis de resistividade (MSFL, ILD e ILM). A diminuição do intervalo de amostragem de 0,20 m para 0,0508 m, nos perfis de raios gama e de porosidade neutrônica, e 0,0254 m para o perfil de densidade, apresenta bons resultados quando aplicada no poço D. O cálculo da resolução vertical indica, para o perfil de porosidade neutrônica, uma superioridade qualitativa em relação ao perfil de raios gama normal, ambos pertencentes ao poço A. Para o poço C, o perfil micro-esférico apresenta uma resolução vertical na mesma ordem de grandeza da resolução do perfil de raios gama do poço B, o que evidencia ainda mais a inconveniência da velocidade de perfilagem utilizada no poço C. Já para o poço D, o cálculo da resolução vertical indica uma superioridade qualitativa do perfil de densidade de alta resolução em relação ao perfil de raios gama de alta resolução. A comparação entre os poços A, B e D, levada a efeito através dos respectivos perfis de porosidade neutrônica normais, comprova que a presença de ruído aleatório, em geral, está diretamente ligada à porosidade da formação - uma maior porosidade indica uma presença maior de ruído e, por conseguinte, uma queda qualitativa no perfil obtido. A análise do espectro de fase de cada perfil indica um deslocamento em profundidade, existente entre as seções principal e repetida de todos os perfis do poço C. E isto pôde ser confirmado com a posterior superposição das seções.

Número de amostras na análise geoestatística e na krigagem de mapas de atributos do solo

The objective of this study was to analyze different intensities of soil sampling for accuracy in geostatistical analysis and interpolation maps for precision agriculture in the sugarcane area. Soil samples were collected at two regular grids at a depth of 0.00 to 0.20m for granulometric analysis (area 1) and soil fertility (area 2). We compared soil sampling intensities: 208, 105, 58 and 24 points in Area 1 and 206, 102 and 53 points in Area 2. The data were submitted to descriptive analysis and geostatistics. The variograms constructed with 105 points didn't differ from variograms with 208 points, which doesn't occur for 58 and 24 points. The increase of sampling interval and reducing the number of points promote greater error in kriging. Samples with more than 100 points per area did not result in significant improvements in the error of kriging, or differed in the amount of fertilizer applied to the field.

Parâmetros genéticos para características indicadoras de eficiência reprodutiva e produtiva de ovinos da raça Santa Inês

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

An analysis of Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for variables based on the results of a sequence of inspections

In this paper, a procedure for the on-line process control of variables is proposed. This procedure consists of inspecting the m-th item from every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the process is out-of-control. Two sets of limits, warning (µ0 ± W) and control (µ0 ± C), are used. If the value of the monitored statistic falls beyond the control limits or if a sequence of h observations falls between the warning limits and the control limits, the production is stopped for adjustment; otherwise, production goes on. The properties of an ergodic Markov chain are used to obtain an expression for the average cost per item. The parameters (the sampling interval m, the widths of the warning, the control limits W and C(W < C), and the sequence length (h) are optimized by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure.

Does nest size matter to laying hens?

Laying hens in loose housing systems have access to group-nests which provide space for several hens at a time to lay their eggs. They are thus rather large and the trend in the industry is to further increase the size of these nests. Though practicality is important for the producer, group-nests should also cater to the egg-laying behaviour of hens to promote good welfare. One of the factors playing a role in the attractiveness of a nest is the amount of enclosure: hens prefer more enclosure when having a choice between different nest types. The aim of this study was to investigate if hens prefer smaller group-nests to lay their eggs given that they may seem more enclosed than larger nests. The relative preference of groups of laying hens for two nest sizes – 0.43m2 vs. 0.86m2 – was tested in a free-access choice test. The experiment was conducted in two consecutive trials with 100 hens each. They were housed from 18 to 36 weeks of age in five groups of 20 animals and had access to two commercial group-nests differing in internal size only. We counted eggs daily as a measure of nest preference. At 28 and 36 weeks of age, videos were taken of the pens and inside the nests on one day during the first 5h of lights-on. The nest videos were used to record the number of hens per nest and their behaviour with a 10min scan sampling interval. The pen videos were observed continuously to count the total number of nest visits per nest and to calculate the duration of nest visits of five focal hens per pen. We found a relative preference for the small nest as more eggs, fewer nest visits per egg and longer nest visit durations were recorded for that nest. In addition, more hens – including more sitting hens – were in the small nests during the main egg-laying period, while the number of standing hens did not differ. These observations indicate that even though both nests may have been explored to a similar extent, the hens preferred the small nest for egg-laying.

Observations of the Sensitivity of Beam Attenuation to Particle Size in a Coastal Bottom Boundary Layer

The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that the aggregated state of natural marine particles constrains the sensitivity of optical beam attenuation to particle size. An instrumented bottom tripod was deployed at the 12-m node of the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory to monitor particle size distributions, particle size-versus-settling-velocity relationships, and the beam attenuation coefficient (c(p)) in the bottom boundary layer in September 2007. An automated in situ filtration system on the tripod collected 24 direct estimates of suspended particulate mass (SPM) during each of five deployments. On a sampling interval of 5 min, data from a Sequoia Scientific LISST 100x Type B were merged with data from a digital floc camera to generate suspended particle volume size distributions spanning diameters from approximately 2 mu m to 4 cm. Diameter-dependent densities were calculated from size-versus-settling-velocity data, allowing conversion of the volume size distributions to mass distributions, which were used to estimate SPM every 5 min. Estimated SPM and measured c(p) from the LISST 100x were linearly correlated throughout the experiment, despite wide variations in particle size. The slope of the line, which is the ratio of c(p) to SPM, was 0.22 g m(-2). Individual estimates of c(p):SPM were between 0.2 and 0.4 g m(-2) for volumetric median particle diameters ranging from 10 to 150 mu m. The wide range of values in c(p):SPM in the literature likely results from three factors capable of producing factor-of-two variability in the ratio: particle size, particle composition, and the finite acceptance angle of commercial beam-transmissometers.

Pliocene stable isotope and carbonate stratigraphy at DSDP Holes 85-572C and 85-573A

Holes 572C and 573A provide high resolution (about 5000-yr. sampling interval) records of oxygen and carbon isotope stratigraphy (Globigerinoides sacculifera) and carbonate stratigraphy for the Pliocene of the equatorial Pacific. These data enable detailed correlation of carbonate events between sites and provide additional resolution to the previous carbonate stratigraphy. Comparison of calcium carbonate and d18O data reveal a "Pacific-type" carbonate stratigraphy throughout the Pliocene. The d18O data have two modes of variability with a boundary at 2.9 Ma. The planktonic d18O record does not have a steplike enrichment at 3.2 Ma, which is observed in benthic records elsewhere, suggesting that this event does not represent the proposed initiation of northern hemispheric glaciation. Hole 572C does record a distinct d18O enrichment event at about 2.4 Ma, which has been previously associated with the onset of major ice rafting in the North Atlantic.

Age models of upper Pliocene samples of the North Atlantic

Abundance variations of six Pliocene species of discoasters have been analyzed over the time interval from 1.89 to 2.95 Ma at five contrasting sites in the North Atlantic: Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 552 (56°N) and 607 (41°N) and Ocean Drilling Program 658 (20°N), 659 (18°N), and 662 (1°S). A sampling interval equivalent to approximately 3 k.y. was used. Total Discoaster abundance showed a reduction with increasing latitude and from the effects of upwelling. This phenomenon is most obvious in Discoaster brouweri, the only species that survived over the entire time interval studied. Prior to 2.38 Ma, Discoaster pentaradiatus and Discoaster surculus are important components of the Discoaster assemblage: Discoaster pentaradiatus increases slightly with latitude up to 41°N, and its abundance relative to D. brouweri increases up to 56°N; D. surculus increases in abundance with latitude and with upwelling conditions relative to both D. brouweri and D. pentaradiatus and is dominant to the latter species at upwelling Site 658 and at the highest latitude sites. Discoaster asymmetricus and Discoaster tamalis appear to increase in abundance with latitude relative to D. brouweri. Many of the abundance changes observed appear to be connected with the initiation of glaciation in the North Atlantic at 2.4 Ma. The long-term trend of decreasing Discoaster abundance probably reflects the fall of sea-surface temperatures. This trend of cooling is overprinted by short-term variations that are probably associated with orbital forcing. Evidence for the astronomical elements of eccentricity and obliquity periodicities were found at all sites; however, only at Sites 607, 659, and 662 were precessional periodicities detected. Furthermore, only at Site 659 was precession found to be dominant to obliquity. Abundance peaks of individual species were found to cross-correlate between sites. The distinct abundance fluctuations observed especially in the tropics suggest that temperature is not the only factor responsible for this variation. This study reveals for the first time the importance of productivity pressure on the suppression of Discoaster abundance.

Pliocene stable oxygen and carbon isotope record of benthic foraminifera from ODP Site 138-846 in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios were measured in benthic foraminifers from the entire Pliocene and latest Miocene sections of Site 846, a 180-m section, at a sampling interval of 10 cm. This provides a temporal resolution of about 2500 yr. The documented continuity of the record is excellent. Using the time scale that was developed on the basis of orbital tuning of GRAPE density records, we observed a fairly constant phase relationship between delta18O and variations in the obliquity of Earth's rotational axis. A new numbering scheme for Pliocene isotope stages is proposed. This high-resolution delta18O record clarifies several interesting aspects of late Neogene climatic evolution, including a "glacial" event that may have caused the final Messinian desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea; one or more "interglacial" events that might have caused refilling of the Mediterranean; a well-resolved couplet of glacial events at about the age of the Sidujfall Subchron; interglacial extremes in the early part of the Gauss that could have resulted from either significant deglaciation on Antarctica or from warming of deep water; and a gradual ramp of increasingly extreme "glacial" events, starting at about the Kaena Subchron and culminating with delta18O stage 100 in the earliest Matuyama.

Radiocarbon dates, accumulation rates, d13C and July temperature of profiles obtained from Selwyn and Misaw Lake, subarctic Canada

The rapid warming of arctic regions during recent decades has been recorded by instrumental monitoring, but the natural climate variability in the past is still sparsely reconstructed across many areas. We have reconstructed past climate changes in subarctic west-central Canada. Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios (d13C, d18O) were derived from a single Sphagnum fuscum plant component; alpha-cellulose isolated from stems. Periods of warmer and cooler conditions identified in this region, described in terms of a "Mediaeval Climatic Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age" were registered in the temperature reconstruction based on the d13C record. Some conclusions could be drawn about wet/dry shifts during the same time interval from the d18O record, humification indices and the macrofossil analysis. The results were compared with other proxy data from the vicinity of the study area. The amplitude of the temperature change was similar to that in chironomid based reconstructions, showing c. 6.5 ±2.3 °C variability in July temperatures during the past 6.2 ka.

Holocene sedimentation rates in the Northwest Passage

Palynological, geochemical, and physical records were used to document Holocene paleoceanographic changes in marine sediment core from Dease Strait in the western part of the main axis of the Northwest Passage (core 2005-804-006 PC latitude 68°59.552'N, longitude 106°34.413'W). Quantitative estimates of past sea surface conditions were inferred from the modern analog technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The chronology of core 2005-804-006 PC is based on a combined use of the paleomagnetic secular variation records and the CALS7K.2 time-varying spherical harmonic model of the geomagnetic field. The age-depth model indicates that the core spans the last ~7700 cal years B.P., with a sedimentation rate of 61 cm/ka. The reconstructed sea surface parameters were compared with those from Barrow Strait and Lancaster Sound (cores 2005-804-004 PC and 2004-804-009 PC, respectively), which allowed us to draw a millennial-scale Holocene sea ice history along the main axis of the Northwest Passage (MANWP). Overall, our data are in good agreement with previous studies based on bowhead whale remains. However, dinoflagellate sea surface based reconstructions suggest several new features. The presence of dinoflagellate cysts in the three cores for most of the Holocene indicates that the MANWP was partially ice-free over the last 10,000 years. This suggests that the recent warming observed in the MANWP could be part of the natural climate variability at the millennial time scale, whereas anthropogenic forcing could have accelerated the warming over the past decades. We associate Holocene climate variability in the MANWP with a large-scale atmospheric pattern, such as the Arctic Oscillation, which may have operated since the early Holocene. In addition to a large-scale pattern, more local conditions such as coastal current, tidal effects, or ice cap proximity may have played a role on the regional sea ice cover. These findings highlight the need to further develop regional investigations in the Arctic to provide realistic boundary conditions for climatic simulations.

Pollen ages and depths in ODP Site 184-1144

A high-resolution pollen record (sampling interval averages 820 years) has been obtained from ODP Site 1144 (water depth 2037 m), northern South China Sea. The 504-m sequence (in composition length) covers the last 1.03 million years according to micropaleontological and isotopic stratigraphy. The pollen assemblages are characterized by high proportions of Pinus and herb pollen, and by their frequent alternations. Based on these alternations, 29 pollen zones have been recognized that are closely correlated to the Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 1-29. Pinus- dominant pollen zones correspond to interglacial periods with lighter delta18O values, while herb-marked ones relate to the heavier delta18O stages assigned to glacials. Judging from the pollen data, the exposed northern continental shelf of the South China Sea during the glacials was covered by grassland, and the extensive northern shelf has formed only since MIS 6 (ca. 150 ka), probably as a result of tectonic subsidence. Tree pollen influx values are indicative of winter monsoon which began to intensify 600 ka ago. The summer monsoon variations can be approximated by the fern percentage within the total pollen and spore abundance, and the result shows high values in general occurring at interglacials, with the maxima at MIS 15, 5e and 1. The relatively high fern percentage with smaller amplitude in variations before 600 ka might suggest more stable humid conditions before the intensification of winter monsoon.