Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Validation of a rapid stool antigen test for diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection

The aim of this study was to validate the rapid lateral flow Helicobacter pylori stool antigen test (One step H. pylori antigen test, ACON laboratories, San Diego, USA; Prime diagnostics, São Paulo), using 13C-Urea Breath Test as the gold standard for H. pylori infection diagnosis. A total of 98 consecutive patients, asymptomatic or dyspeptic, entered the study. Sixty-nine were women, with a mean age of 45.76 ± 14.59 years (14 to 79 years). In the H. pylori-positive group, the rapid stool antigen test detected H. pylori antigen in 44 of the 50 positive patients (sensitivity 88%; 95% CI: 75.7-95.5%), and six false-negative; and in the H. pylori-negative group 42 presented negative results (specificity 87.5%; 95% CI: 74.7-95.3%), and six false-positive, showing a substantial agreement (Kappa Index = 0.75; p < 0.0001; 95% CI: 0.6-0.9). Forty four of fifty patients that had positive stool antigen were H. pylori-positive, the PPV of the stool antigen test was 88% (95% CI: 75.7-95.5%), and 42 patients with negative stool antigen test were H. pylori-negative, the NPV of the stool antigen test was 87.5% (95% CI: 74.7-95.3%). We conclude that the lateral flow stool antigen test can be used as an alternative to breath test for H. pylori infection diagnosis especially in developing countries.

Optimal Cut-Off Value for Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) Index of Insulin-Resistance in a Population of Patients Admitted Electively in a Portuguese Cardiology Ward

INTRODUCTION: Insulin resistance is the pathophysiological key to explain metabolic syndrome. Although clearly useful, the Homeostasis Model Assessment index (an insulin resistance measurement) hasn't been systematically applied in clinical practice. One of the main reasons is the discrepancy in cut-off values reported in different populations. We sought to evaluate in a Portuguese population the ideal cut-off for Homeostasis Model Assessment index and assess its relationship with metabolic syndrome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We selected a cohort of individuals admitted electively in a Cardiology ward with a BMI < 25 Kg/m2 and no abnormalities in glucose metabolism (fasting plasma glucose < 100 mg/dL and no diabetes). The 90th percentile of the Homeostasis Model Assessment index distribution was used to obtain the ideal cut-off for insulin resistance. We also selected a validation cohort of 300 individuals (no exclusion criteria applied). RESULTS: From 7 000 individuals, and after the exclusion criteria, there were left 1 784 individuals. The 90th percentile for Homeostasis Model Assessment index was 2.33. In the validation cohort, applying that cut-off, we have 49.3% of individuals with insulin resistance. However, only 69.9% of the metabolic syndrome patients had insulin resistance according to that cut-off. By ROC curve analysis, the ideal cut-off for metabolic syndrome is 2.41. Homeostasis Model Assessment index correlated with BMI (r = 0.371, p < 0.001) and is an independent predictor of the presence of metabolic syndrome (OR 19.4, 95% CI 6.6 - 57.2, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Our study showed that in a Portuguese population of patients admitted electively in a Cardiology ward, 2.33 is the Homeostasis Model Assessment index cut-off for insulin resistance and 2.41 for metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: Homeostasis Model Assessment index is directly correlated with BMI and is an independent predictor of metabolic syndrome.

Validation of NASA rotor 67 with openFOAM's transonic density-based solver

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Development and validation of gold nanoprobes for human SNP detection towards commercial application

Conventional molecular techniques for detection and characterization of relevant nucleic acid (i.e. DNA) sequences are, nowadays, cumbersome, expensive and with reduced portability. The main objective of this dissertation consisted in the optimization and validation of a fast and low-cost colorimetric nanodiagnostic methodology for the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This was done considering SNPs associated to obesity of commercial interest for STAB VIDA, and subsequent evaluation of other clinically relevant targets. Also, integration of this methodology into a microfluidic platform envisaging portability and application on points-of-care (POC) was achieved. To warrant success in pursuing these objectives, the experimental work was divided in four sections: i) genetic association of SNPs to obesity in the Portuguese population; ii) optimization and validation of the non-cross-linking approach for complete genotype characterization of these SNPs; iii) incorporation into a microfluidic platform; and iv) translation to other relevant commercial targets. FTO dbSNP rs#:9939609 carriers had higher body mass index (BMI), total body fat mass, waist perimeter and 2.5 times higher risk to obesity. AuNPs functionalized with thiolated oligonucleotides (Au-nanoprobes) were used via the non-cross-linking to validate a diagnostics approach against the gold standard technique - Sanger Sequencing - with high levels of sensitivity (87.50%) and specificity (91.67%). A proof-of-concept POC microfluidic device was assembled towards incorporation of the molecular detection strategy. In conclusion a successful framework was developed and validated for the detection of SNPs with commercial interest for STAB VIDA, towards future translation into a POC device.

A spectrum-driven damage Identification technique : application and validation through the numerical simulation of the Z24 Bridge

The present paper focuses on a damage identification method based on the use of the second order spectral properties of the nodal response processes. The explicit dependence on the frequency content of the outputs power spectral densities makes them suitable for damage detection and localization. The well-known case study of the Z24 Bridge in Switzerland is chosen to apply and further investigate this technique with the aim of validating its reliability. Numerical simulations of the dynamic response of the structure subjected to different types of excitation are carried out to assess the variability of the spectrum-driven method with respect to both type and position of the excitation sources. The simulated data obtained from random vibrations, impulse, ramp and shaking forces, allowed to build the power spectrum matrix from which the main eigenparameters of reference and damage scenarios are extracted. Afterwards, complex eigenvectors and real eigenvalues are properly weighed and combined and a damage index based on the difference between spectral modes is computed to pinpoint the damage. Finally, a group of vibration-based damage identification methods are selected from the literature to compare the results obtained and to evaluate the performance of the spectral index.

Validation of the Portuguese Version of EHP-30 (The Endometriosis Health Profile-30)

Introduction: Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 is currently the most used questionnaire for quality of life measurement in women with endometriosis. The aim of this study is to evaluate the psychometric properties and to validate the Portuguese Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 version. MATERIAL AND METHODS A sequential sample of 152 patients with endometriosis, followed in a Portugal reference center, were asked to complete a questionnaire on social and demographic features, the Portuguese version of the Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 and of the Short Form Health Survey 36 Item â version 2. Appropriate statistical analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, internal consistency, item-total correlation and convergent validity. RESULTS Factorial analysis confirmed the validity of the five-dimension structure of the Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 core questionnaire, which explained 83.2% of the total variance. All item-total correlations presented acceptable results and high internal consistency, with Cronbach's alpha ranging between 0.876 and 0.981 for the core questionnaire and between 0.863 and 0.951 for the modular questionnaire. Significant negative associations between similar scales of Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 and Short Form Health Survey 36 Item â version 2 were demonstrated. Data completeness achieved was high for all dimensions. The emotional well-being scale in the core questionnaire and the infertility scale in the modular section had the highest median scores, and therefore the most negative impact on the quality of life of participating women. DISCUSSION The test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the questionnaire should be evaluated in future studies. CONCLUSION The present study demonstrates that the Portuguese version of the Endometriosis Health Profile Questionnaire-30 is a valid, reliable and acceptable tool for evaluating the health-related quality of life of Portuguese women with endometriosis.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

Development of the First Disease Activity Index for Eosinophilic Esophagitis: Update on the EEsAI in 2011

Background a nd Aims: T he international E EsAI study g roupis currently developing the first activity index (EEsAI) specificfor Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). Goal: To develop, evaluateand validate the EEsAI.Methods: T he d evelopment comprises three phases: 1.Selection of candidate items; 2. Evaluation of the activity indexin a f irst patient cohort; and 3. V alidation in a s econd EoEpatient cohort. Focus group interviews with patients were usedin p hase 1 to generate p atient r eported outcomes ( PRO)according to guidelines o f regulatory authorities ( FDA andEMA), whereas the section of biologic items was developed byDelphi r ounds of i nternational E oE experts from E urope andNorth America.Results: The EEsAI has a modular composition to assess thefollowing components o f EoE activity: p atient reportedoutcomes, endoscopic activity, histologic activity, laboratoryactivity, a nd quality of life. D efinitions f or all aspects o fendoscopic and histologic appearance were established byconsensus rounds among EoE experts. Symptom assessmenttools were created that take into account d ifferent foodconsistencies as w ell as f ood avoidance and specificprocessing strategies. T he EEsAI is evaluated in a c ohort ofadult EoE patients since March 2011.Conclusions: After successful validation, the EEsAI will allowto standardize outcome assessment in E oE t rials which w illlikely lead to its wide applicability.

A novel tool for the assessment of pain: validation in low back pain.

BACKGROUND: Adequate pain assessment is critical for evaluating the efficacy of analgesic treatment in clinical practice and during the development of new therapies. Yet the currently used scores of global pain intensity fail to reflect the diversity of pain manifestations and the complexity of underlying biological mechanisms. We have developed a tool for a standardized assessment of pain-related symptoms and signs that differentiates pain phenotypes independent of etiology. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a structured interview (16 questions) and a standardized bedside examination (23 tests), we prospectively assessed symptoms and signs in 130 patients with peripheral neuropathic pain caused by diabetic polyneuropathy, postherpetic neuralgia, or radicular low back pain (LBP), and in 57 patients with non-neuropathic (axial) LBP. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed distinct association patterns of symptoms and signs (pain subtypes) that characterized six subgroups of patients with neuropathic pain and two subgroups of patients with non-neuropathic pain. Using a classification tree analysis, we identified the most discriminatory assessment items for the identification of pain subtypes. We combined these six interview questions and ten physical tests in a pain assessment tool that we named Standardized Evaluation of Pain (StEP). We validated StEP for the distinction between radicular and axial LBP in an independent group of 137 patients. StEP identified patients with radicular pain with high sensitivity (92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 83%-97%) and specificity (97%; 95% CI 89%-100%). The diagnostic accuracy of StEP exceeded that of a dedicated screening tool for neuropathic pain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, we were able to reproduce subtypes of radicular and axial LBP, underscoring the utility of StEP for discerning distinct constellations of symptoms and signs. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel method of identifying pain subtypes that we believe reflect underlying pain mechanisms. We demonstrate that this new approach to pain assessment helps separate radicular from axial back pain. Beyond diagnostic utility, a standardized differentiation of pain subtypes that is independent of disease etiology may offer a unique opportunity to improve targeted analgesic treatment.

Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.

Validation of two echocardiographic indexes to improve the diagnosis of complex coarctations

Rapport de synthèse: Enjeux et contexte de recherche : la coarctation de l'aorte, rétrécissement de l'aorte thoracique descendante, est une des malformations cardiaques congénitales les plus fréquentes. Son diagnostic reste cependant difficile surtout lorsqu'elle est associée à la présence d'un canal artériel ou à une malformation cardiaque plus complexe. Dans ces contextes, les signes échographiques classiques qui posent habituellement le diagnostic (visualisation d'un rétrécissement juxtaductal et accélération au Doppler au niveau de l'isthme aortique) peuvent faire défaut ou être difficile à imager. La validation d'index basé sur des mesures anatomiques faciles à acquérir par échographie cardiaque, indépendantes de l'âge, de la situation hémodynamique et des malformations cardiaques associées représente une aide significative dans le diagnostic de la coarctation de l'aorte. Nous avons donc voulu valider par une étude rétrospective la fiabilité de deux index dans cette indication : l'index des artères carotido-sous-clavière (index CSA; rapport du diamètre de l'arc aortique transverse distal sur la distance entre les artères carotide et sous-clavière gauches) et l'index de l'aorte isthmique-descendante (index I/D; rapport des diamètres de l'aorte isthmique sur celui de l'aorte descendante). Notre article : nous avons rétrospectivement calculé la valeur des deux index (CSA et I/D) chez un groupe de 68 enfants avec coarctation et un groupe 24 cas contrôles apparenté pour l'âge et le sexe. Les enfants avec coarctation ont un index CSA et I/D significativement plus bas que le groupe contrôle (Index CSA : 0.84 ± 0.39 vs. 2.65 ± 0.82, p<0.0001 - Index I/D : 0.58 ± 0.18 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19, p<0.0001). Pour les deux index, ni la présence d'une autre malformation cardiaque, ni l'âge n'ont un impact sur la différence significative entre les deux groupes. Conclusions: notre recherche à permis de valider qu'un index CSA de moins de 1,5 est fortement suggestif d'une coarctation, indépendamment de l'âge du patient et de la présence d'une autre malformation cardiaque. L'index I/D (valeur limite 0,64) est moins spécifique que l'index CSA. L'association des deux index augmente la sensibilité et permet rétrospectivement le diagnostic de tous les cas de coarctation seulement sur la base d'une échographie cardiaque standard faite au lit du patient. Perspectives : cette étude rétrospective mérite d'être vérifiée par une étude prospective afin de confirmer la contribution de ces index à la prise en charge des patients suspects d'une coarctation de l'aorte. Cependant, la situation dans laquelle ces index pourraient avoir le plus grand impact reste encore à explorer. En effet, si le diagnostic postnatal de la coarctation est parfois difficile, son diagnostic prénatal l'est nettement plus. La présence obligatoire du canal artériel et l'existence d'une hypoplasie isthmique physiologique chez le foetus obligent le cardiologue foetale à observer des signes indirects, peu sensibles, d'une possible coarctation (prépondérance des cavités droites). La validation de l'index CSA et/ou de l'index I/D chez le foetus constituerait donc une avancée majeure dans le diagnostic prénatal de la coarctation de l'aorte.

Food allergy: Validation of the French version of the FAQLQ-PF Quality of Life Questionnaire

Background: It has been previously shown with English speaking children that food allergy clearly affects their quality of life. The first allergy quality of life questionnaire has been validated in English in 2008, however to date no questionnaire was available in French. Objectives: To validate the French version of the Food Allergy Quality of Life Questionnaire- Parent Form (FAQLQ-PF) already existing version developed and validated in English by DunnGalvin et al. Methods: The questionnaire was translated from English to French by two independent French-speaking translators and retranslated by an independent English-speaking translator. We then recruited 30 patients between 0 and 12 years with a food allergy. Parents of these children answered the questionnaire during a clinic visit. The results obtained were then analysed and compared with the results provided by DunnGalvin's study and the Food Allergy independent Measure (FAIM). Results: 27 questionnaires were fully completed and available for analysis. Median age was 6 years with a range from 18 months to 12 years. We had a girl/boy ratio of 1:1.14. A Cronbach's a correlation index of 0.748 was found. Validity was demonstrated by significant correlations between FAQLQ-PF and the FAIM. Conclusion: The French version of the FAQLQ was validated and will permit to assess degree of Quality of Life for French-speaking children with food allergy. It will be an important tool for clinical research and will allow research collaboration between French and English speaking research teams.

The "help" question doesn't help when screening for major depression: external validation of the three-question screening test for primary care patients managed for physical complaints.

BACKGROUND: Major depression, although frequent in primary care, is commonly hidden behind multiple physical complaints that are often the first and only reason for patient consultation. Major depression can be screened by two validated questions that are easier to use in primary care than the full DSM-IV criteria. A third question, called the "help" question, improves the specificity without apparently decreasing the sensitivity of this screening procedure. We validated the abbreviated screening procedure for major depression with and without the "help" question in primary care patients managed for a physical complaint. METHODS: This diagnostic accuracy study used data from a cohort study called SODA (for SOmatisation Depression Anxiety ) conducted by 24 general practitioners (GPs) in western Switzerland that included patients over 18 years of age with at least one physical complaint at index consultation. Major depression was identified with the full Patient Health Questionnaire. GPs were asked to screen patients for major depression with the three screening questions one year after inclusion. RESULTS: Out of 937 patients with at least one physical complaint, 751 were eligible one year after index consultation. Major depression was diagnosed in 69/724 (9.5%) patients. The sensitivity and specificity of the two-question method alone were 91.3% (95% confidence interval 81.4-96.4%) and 65.0% (95% confidence interval 61.2-68.6%), respectively. Adding the "help" question decreased the sensitivity (59.4% ; 95% confidence interval 47.0-70.9%) but improved the specificity (88.2% ; 95% confidence interval 85.4-90.5%) of the three-question method. CONCLUSIONS: The use of two screening questions for major depression was associated with high sensitivity and low specificity in primary care patients presenting a physical complaint. Adding the "help" question improved the specificity but clearly decreased the sensitivity; when using the "help" question; four out of ten patients with depression will be missed, compared to only one out of ten with the two-question method. Therefore, the "help" question is not useful as a screening question, but may help discussing management strategies.