Urban climates and global climate change

Cities and global climate change are closely linked: cities are where the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions take place through the consumption of fossil fuels; they are where an increasing proportion of the world’s people live; and they also generate their own climate – commonly characterized by the urban heat island. In this way, understanding the way cities affect the cycling of energy, water, and carbon to create an urban climate is a key element of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially in the context of rising global temperatures and deteriorating air quality in many cities. As climate models resolve finer spatial-scales, they will need to represent those areas in which more than 50% of the world’s population already live to provide climate projections that are of greater use to planning and decision-making. Finally, many of the processes that are instrumental in determining urban climate are the same factors leading to global anthropogenic climate change, namely regional-scale land-use changes; increased energy use; and increased emissions of climatically-relevant atmospheric constituents. Cities are therefore both a case study for understanding, and an agent in mitigating, anthropogenic climate change. This chapter reviews and summarizes the current state of understanding of the physical basis of urban climates, as well as our ability to represent these in models. We argue that addressing the challenges of managing urban environments in a changing climate requires understanding the energy, water, and carbon balances for an urban landscape and, importantly, their interactions and feedbacks, together with their links to human behaviour and controls. We conclude with some suggestions for where further research is needed.

Adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience

Climate change poses new challenges to cities and new flexible forms of governance are required that are able to take into account the uncertainty and abruptness of changes. The purpose of this paper is to discuss adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience. This paper identifies and reviews three traditions of literature on the idea of transitions and transformations, and assesses to what extent the transitions encompass elements of adaptive governance. This paper uses the open source Urban Transitions Project database to assess how urban experiments take into account principles of adaptive governance. The results show that: the experiments give no explicit information of ecological knowledge; the leadership of cities is primarily from local authorities; and evidence of partnerships and anticipatory or planned adaptation is limited or absent. The analysis shows that neither technological, political nor ecological solutions alone are sufficient to further our understanding of the analytical aspects of transition thinking in urban climate governance. In conclusion, the paper argues that the future research agenda for urban climate governance needs to explore further the links between the three traditions in order to better identify contradictions, complementarities or compatibilities, and what this means in practice for creating and assessing urban experiments.

Estrutura térmica identificada por transectos móveis e canal termal do Landsat 7 em cidade tropical

This study aims to examine the thermal structure of the urban climate based on the interpretation of the satellite Landsat 7 (thermal channel) and measures for the area. It identifies how the production of urban climate develops based on an analysis of the structure of space forms and characteristics of land use and constructive materials in the generation of heat islands and their implications in environmental comfort in a tropical climate medium size city at Brazil. To check intra-urban air temperature, measures were carried out in mobile transects in the North-South and East-West routes. Thermal Channel data of Landsat-7, were converted to surface values. The results showed that the pattern of urbanization and characteristics of land use are responsible for the distribution of temperature generating heat islands in downtown and popular densely built neighborhoods. In those cases the highest indexes of social segregation added to higher temperature also provokes elevation in the number of illnesses and morbidity cases, mostly of respiratory diseases.

Abordagem geográfica do clima urbano e das enfermidades em São José do Rio Preto/SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

Green façades for urban comfort improvement. Implementation in a extreme Continental Mediterranean climate

Green façades constitute constructive technologies with a positive influence on sustainability in cities and several urban climate parameters such as thermal comfort, air quality and water management. According to the current research, the implementation of urban greenery contributes to increase the cooling effect and mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. This paper focuses on the role of vegetation in improving the urban environment of Madrid (Spain). The simulation results show that green walls could be more effective in urban morphologies with narrow streets. During overheated periods, the streets with green walls have a higher relative humidity in the surrounding areas than those with trees. The air temperature is found to be a little lower. The reduction of wind speed means a positive effect on urban hygrothermal comfort. Therefore, green walls could be taken into account as suitable tools to modify the outdoor thermal environment in cities with an extreme Continental Mediterranean climate.

Influência das áreas verdes urbanas na temperatura e na umidade do ar em São Carlos-SP

A remoção da vegetação para dar lugar a edificações e superfícies pavimentadas implica na anulação de diversos serviços ambientais. Entre eles está o sombreamento, que impede a aquecimento do ar derivado da re-emissão da radiação solar pelas superfícies. O ar quente e seco contribui para o aumento da sensação de desconforto e favorece a incidência de doenças respiratórias. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar valores de temperatura e umidade do ar, comparando-se dados coletados por estações meteorológicas automáticas instaladas em regiões arborizadas e áridas da cidade, durante a ocorrência de episódios representativos do clima da região. Os procedimentos metodológicos, baseados na Climatologia Dinâmica, consistiram em relacionar a sucessão de tipos de tempo meteorológico de escala regional às diferenças observadas entre os pontos de estudo, provocadas por fenômenos provenientes das atividades humanas. Isto permitiu a clara identificação de variações climáticas críticas para o conforto e a saúde humanos, tais como grandes amplitudes térmicas e baixos valores de umidade do ar. Os resultados mostraram amplitudes térmicas menores nas áreas arborizadas (em média 3ºC) e, em alguns casos, umidade do ar mais elevada em comparação aos valores observados nas partes áridas estudadas. Estas verificações reforçam a afirmação da necessidade de ampliação das áreas verdes de São Carlos, que contribuem na atenuação as condições climáticas de desconforto e insalubridade. Em conseqüência, aumentam a qualidade de vida da população e as condições de sustentabilidade do ambiente urbano. Tal afirmação vem ao encontro da legislação ambiental brasileira e dos anseios da população são-carlense. Espera-se que as constatações deste trabalho sejam um elemento adicional na adoção de políticas públicas mais comprometidas com a saúde humana e ambiental.

Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.

Queimadas de cana-de-açúcar: Avaliação de efeitos na qualidade do ar e na saúde respiratória de crianças

Pesquisa em Espírito Santo do Turvo (SP) analisou poluição atmosférica causada por queima de cana-de-açúcar e saúde respiratória de crianças. Realizaram-se medições de PM10, PTS e NO2, durante safra, em 2004 e 2005, em pátio de escola, e aplicou-se questionário para avaliar morbidade respiratória referida dos alunos. No município, há cultivo de cana, queimada no pré-corte e usina próxima à área urbana. Resultados dos questionários foram comparados àqueles obtidos em Juquitiba (SP) previamente. As medições de poluentes, realizadas em dias em que havia queima de cana, estiveram abaixo dos padrões de qualidade do ar. Entretanto, foram indicadas altas prevalências de sintomas e doenças respiratórias.

Genotoxic potential generated by biomass burning in the Brazilian Legal Amazon by Tradescantia micronucleus bioassay: a toxicity assessment study

Background: The Brazilian Amazon has suffered impacts from non-sustainable economic development, especially owing to the expansion of agricultural commodities into forest areas. The Tangara da Serra region, located in the southern of the Legal Amazon, is characterized by non-mechanized sugar cane production. In addition, it lies on the dispersion path of the pollution plume generated by biomass burning. The aim of this study was to assess the genotoxic potential of the atmosphere in the Tangara da Serra region, using Tradescantia pallida as in situ bioindicator. Methods: The study was conducted during the dry and rainy seasons, where the plants were exposed to two types of exposure, active and passive. Results: The results showed that in all the sampling seasons, irrespective of exposure type, there was an increase in micronucleus frequency, compared to control and that it was statistically significant in the dry season. A strong and significant relationship was also observed between the increase in micronucleus incidence and the rise in fine particulate matter, and hospital morbidity from respiratory diseases in children. Conclusions: Based on the results, we demonstrated that pollutants generated by biomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon can induce genetic damage in test plants that was more prominent during dry season, and correlated with the level of particulates and elevated respiratory morbidity.

Detection of Human Bocavirus mRNA in Respiratory Secretions Correlates with High Viral Load and Concurrent Diarrhea

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a parvovirus recently identified in association with acute respiratory infections (ARI). Despite its worldwide occurrence, little is known on the pathogenesis of HBoV infections. In addition, few systematic studies of HBoV in ARI have been conducted in Latin America. Therefore, in order to test whether active viral replication of human bocavirus is associated with respiratory diseases and to understand the clinical impact of this virus in patients with these diseases, we performed a 3-year retrospective hospital-based study of HBoV in outpatients and inpatients with symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in Brazil. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) from 1015 patients with respiratory symptoms were tested for HBoV DNA by PCR. All samples positive for HBoV were tested by PCR for all other respiratory viruses, had HBoV viral loads determined by quantitative real time PCR and, when possible, were tested by RT-PCR for HBoV VP1 mRNA, as evidence of active viral replication. HBoV was detected in 4.8% of patients, with annual rates of 10.0%, 3.0% and 3.0% in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The range of respiratory symptoms was similar between HBoV-positive and HBoV-negative ARI patients. However, a higher rate of diarrhea was observed in HBoV-positive patients. High HBoV viral loads (> 10(8) copies/mL) and diarrhea were significantly more frequent in patients with exclusive infection by HBoV and in patients with detection of HBoV VP1 mRNA than in patients with viral co-infection, detected in 72.9% of patients with HBoV. In summary, our data demonstrated that active HBoV replication was detected in a small percentage of patients with ARI and was correlated with concurrent diarrhea and lack of other viral co-infections.

Postural activity of the diaphragm is reduced in humans when respiratory demand increases

1. Respiratory activity of the diaphragm and other respiratory muscles is normally co-ordinated with their other functions, such as for postural control of the trunk when the limbs move. The integration may occur by summation of two inputs at the respiratory motoneurons. The present study investigated whether postural activity of the diaphragm changed when respiratory drive increased with hypercapnoea. 2. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the diaphragm and other trunk muscles were made with intramuscular electrodes in 13 healthy volunteers. Under control conditions and while breathing through increased dead-space,subjects made rapid repetitive arm movements to disturb the stability of the spine for four periods each lasting 10 s, separated by 50 s. 3. End-tidal CO2, and ventilation increased for the first 60-120 s of the trial then reached a plateau. During rapid arm movement at the start of dead-space breathing, diaphragm EMG became tonic with superimposed modulation at the frequencies of respiration and arm movement. However, when the arm was moved after 60 s of hypercapnoea, the tonic diaphragm EMG during expiration and the phasic activity with arm movement were reduced or absent. Similar changes occurred for the expiratory muscle transversus abdominis, but not for the erector spinae. The mean amplitude of intra-abdominal pressure and the phasic changes with arm movement were reduced after 60 s of hypercapnoea. 4. The present data suggest that increased central respiratory drive may attenuate the postural commands reaching motoneurons. This attenuation can affect the key inspiratory and expiratory muscles and is likely to be co-ordinated at a pre-motoneuronal site.

Health in Brazil 4 Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major health priority in Brazil-72% of all deaths were attributable to NCDs in 2007. They are also the main source of disease burden, with neuropsychiatric disorders being the single largest contributor. Morbidity and mortality due to NCDs are greatest in the poor population. Although the crude NCD mortality increased 5% between 1996 and 2007, age-standardised mortality declined by 20%. Declines were primarily for cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, in association with the successful implementation of health policies that lead to decreases in smoking and the expansion of access to primary health care. Of note, however, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension is rising in parallel with that of excess weight; these increases are associated with unfavourable changes of diet and physical activity. Brazil has implemented major policies for the prevention of NCDs, and its age-adjusted NCD mortality is falling by 1.8% per year. However, the unfavourable trends for most major risk factors pose an enormous challenge and call for additional and timely action and policies, especially those of a legislative and regulatory nature and those providing cost-effective chronic care for individuals affected by NCDs.