The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for detection of adenovirus after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation: viral load as a marker for invasive disease.

BACKGROUND: The value of adenovirus plasma DNA detection as an indicator for adenovirus disease is unknown in the context of T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation, of which adenovirus disease is an uncommon but serious complication. METHODS: Three groups of 62 T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplant recipients were selected and tested for adenovirus in plasma by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Adenovirus was detected in 21 (87.5%) of 24 patients with proven adenovirus disease (group 1), in 4 (21%) of 19 patients who shed adenovirus (group 2), and in 1 (10.5%) of 19 uninfected control patients. The maximum viral load was significantly higher in group 1 (median maximum viral load, 6.3x10(6) copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.0x10(9) copies/mL) than in group 2 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.7x10(8) copies/mL; P<.001) and in group 3 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range 0-40 copies/mL; P<.001). All patients in group 2 who developed adenoviremia had symptoms compatible with adenovirus disease (i.e., possible disease). A minimal plasma viral load of 10(3) copies/mL was detected in all patients with proven or possible disease. Adenoviremia was detectable at a median of 19.5 days (range, 8-48 days) and 24 days (range, 9-41 days) before death for patients with proven and possible adenovirus disease, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sustained or high-level adenoviremia appears to be a specific and sensitive indicator of adenovirus disease after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation. In the context of low prevalence of adenovirus disease, the use of polymerase chain reaction of plasma specimens to detect virus might be a valuable tool to identify and treat patients at risk for viral invasive disease.

Reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction reference genes in the spared nerve injury model of neuropathic pain : validation and literature search

La douleur neuropathique est définie comme une douleur causée par une lésion du système nerveux somato-sensoriel. Elle se caractérise par des douleurs exagérées, spontanées, ou déclenchées par des stimuli normalement non douloureux (allodynie) ou douloureux (hyperalgésie). Bien qu'elle concerne 7% de la population, ses mécanismes biologiques ne sont pas encore élucidés. L'étude des variations d'expressions géniques dans les tissus-clés des voies sensorielles (notamment le ganglion spinal et la corne dorsale de la moelle épinière) à différents moments après une lésion nerveuse périphérique permettrait de mettre en évidence de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques. Elles se détectent de manière sensible par reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT- qPCR). Pour garantir des résultats fiables, des guidelines ont récemment recommandé la validation des gènes de référence utilisés pour la normalisation des données ("Minimum information for publication of quantitative real-time PCR experiments", Bustin et al 2009). Après recherche dans la littérature des gènes de référence fréquemment utilisés dans notre modèle de douleur neuropathique périphérique SNI (spared nerve injury) et dans le tissu nerveux en général, nous avons établi une liste de potentiels bons candidats: Actin beta (Actb), Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH), ribosomal proteins 18S (18S), L13a (RPL13a) et L29 (RPL29), hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase 1 (HPRT1) et hydroxymethyl-bilane synthase (HMBS). Nous avons évalué la stabilité d'expression de ces gènes dans le ganglion spinal et dans la corne dorsale à différents moments après la lésion nerveuse (SNI) en calculant des coefficients de variation et utilisant l'algorithme geNorm qui compare les niveaux d'expression entre les différents candidats et détermine la paire de gènes restante la plus stable. Il a aussi été possible de classer les gènes selon leur stabilité et d'identifier le nombre de gènes nécessaires pour une normalisation la plus précise. Les gènes les plus cités comme référence dans le modèle SNI ont été GAPDH, HMBS, Actb, HPRT1 et 18S. Seuls HPRT1 and 18S ont été précédemment validés dans des arrays de RT-qPCR. Dans notre étude, tous les gènes testés dans le ganglion spinal et dans la corne dorsale satisfont au critère de stabilité exprimé par une M-value inférieure à 1. Par contre avec un coefficient de variation (CV) supérieur à 50% dans le ganglion spinal, 18S ne peut être retenu. La paire de gènes la plus stable dans le ganglion spinal est HPRT1 et Actb et dans la corne dorsale il s'agit de RPL29 et RPL13a. L'utilisation de 2 gènes de référence stables suffit pour une normalisation fiable. Nous avons donc classé et validé Actb, RPL29, RPL13a, HMBS, GAPDH, HPRT1 et 18S comme gènes de référence utilisables dans la corne dorsale pour le modèle SNI chez le rat. Dans le ganglion spinal 18S n'a pas rempli nos critères. Nous avons aussi déterminé que la combinaison de deux gènes de référence stables suffit pour une normalisation précise. Les variations d'expression génique de potentiels gènes d'intérêts dans des conditions expérimentales identiques (SNI, tissu et timepoints post SNI) vont pouvoir se mesurer sur la base d'une normalisation fiable. Non seulement il sera possible d'identifier des régulations potentiellement importantes dans la genèse de la douleur neuropathique mais aussi d'observer les différents phénotypes évoluant au cours du temps après lésion nerveuse.

Development of a real time polymerase chain reaction for quantitation of Schistosoma mansoni DNA

This report describes the development of a SYBR Green I based real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol for detection on the ABI Prism 7000 instrument. Primers targeting the gene encoding the SSU rRNA were designed to amplify with high specificity DNA from Schistosoma mansoni, in a real time quantitative PCR system. The limit of detection of parasite DNA for the system was 10 fg of purified genomic DNA, that means less than the equivalent to one parasite cell (genome ~580 fg DNA). The efficiency was 0.99 and the correlation coefficient (R²) was 0.97. When different copy numbers of the target amplicon were used as standards, the assay could detect at least 10 copies of the specific target. The primers used were designed to amplify a 106 bp DNA fragment (Tm 83ºC). The assay was highly specific for S. mansoni, and did not recognize DNA from closely related non-schistosome trematodes. The real time PCR allowed for accurate quantification of S. mansoni DNA and no time-consuming post-PCR detection of amplification products by gel electrophoresis was required. The assay is potentially able to quantify S. mansoni DNA (and indirectly parasite burden) in a number of samples, such as snail tissue, serum and feces from patients, and cercaria infested water. Thus, these PCR protocols have potential to be used as tools for monitoring of schistosome transmission and quantitative diagnosis of human infection.

Detection and differentiation of Cryptosporidium by real-time polymerase chain reaction in stool samples from patients in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This study reports the first genetic characterisation of Cryptosporidium isolates in Brazil using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). A total of 1,197 faecal specimens from children and 10 specimens from human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients were collected between 1999-2010 and screened using microscopy. Forty-eight Cryptosporidium oocyst-positive isolates were identified and analysed using a generic TaqMan assay targeting the 18S rRNA to detect Cryptosporidium species and two other TaqMan assays to identify Cryptosporidium hominis and Cryptosporidium parvum. The 18S rRNA assay detected Cryptosporidium species in all 48 of the stool specimens. The C. parvum TaqMan assay correctly identified five/48 stool samples, while 37/48 stool specimens were correctly amplified in the C. hominis TaqMan assay. The results obtained in this study support previous findings showing that C. hominis infections are more prevalent than C. parvum infections in Brazil and they demonstrate that the TaqMan RT-PCR procedure is a simple, fast and valuable tool for the detection and differentiation of Cryptosporidium species.

Detection of replication-defective hepatitis A virus based on the correlation between real-time polymerase chain reaction and ELISA in situ results

ELISA in situ can be used to titrate hepatitis A virus (HAV) particles and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been shown to be a fast method to quantify the HAV genome. Precise quantification of viral concentration is necessary to distinguish between infectious and non-infectious particles. The purpose of this study was to compare cell culture and RT-PCR quantification results and determine whether HAV genome quantification can be correlated with infectivity. For this purpose, three stocks of undiluted, five-fold diluted and 10-fold diluted HAV were prepared to inoculate cells in a 96-well plate. Monolayers were then incubated for seven, 10 and 14 days and the correlation between the ELISA in situ and RT-PCR results was evaluated. At 10 days post-incubation, the highest viral load was observed in all stocks of HAV via RT-PCR (10(5) copies/mL) (p = 0.0002), while ELISA revealed the highest quantity of particles after 14 days (optical density = 0.24, p < 0.001). At seven days post-infection, there was a significant statistical correlation between the results of the two methods, indicating equivalents titres of particles and HAV genome during this period of infection. The results reported here indicate that the duration of growth of HAV in cell culture must be taken into account to correlate genome quantification with infectivity.

Use of sodC versus ctrA for real-time polymerase chain reaction-based detection of Neisseria meningitidis in sterile body fluids

We evaluated the use of a newly described sodC-based real-time-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay for detecting Neisseria meningitidis in normally sterile sites, such as cerebrospinal fluid and serum. The sodC-based RT-PCR assay has an advantage over ctrA for detecting nongroupable N. meningitidis isolates, which are commonly present in asymptomatic pharyngeal carriage. However, in our study, sodC-based RT-PCR was 7.5% less sensitive than ctrA. Given the public health impact of possible false-negative results due to the use of the sodC target gene alone, sodC-based RT-PCR for the diagnosis of meningococcal meningitis should be used with caution.

Detection of respiratory viruses by real-time polymerase chain reaction in outpatients with acute respiratory infection

Viruses are the major contributors to the morbidity and mortality of upper and lower acute respiratory infections (ARIs) for all age groups. The aim of this study was to determine the frequencies for a large range of respiratory viruses using a sensitive molecular detection technique in specimens from outpatients of all ages with ARIs. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were obtained from 162 individuals between August 2007-August 2009. Twenty-three pathogenic respiratory agents, 18 respiratory viruses and five bacteria were investigated using multiplex real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and indirect immunofluorescence assay (IIF). Through IIF, 33 (20.4%) specimens with respiratory virus were recognised, with influenza virus representing over half of the positive samples. Through a multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay, 88 (54.3%) positive samples were detected; the most prevalent respiratory viral pathogens were influenza, human rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Six cases of viral co-detection were observed, mainly involving RSV. The use of multiplex real-time RT-PCR increased the viral detection by 33.9% and revealed a larger number of respiratory viruses implicated in ARI cases, including the most recently described respiratory viruses [human bocavirus, human metapneumovirus, influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus, human coronavirus (HCoV) NL63 and HCoV HKU1].

Molecular diagnosis of strongyloidiasis in tropical areas: a comparison of conventional and real-time polymerase chain reaction with parasitological methods

This study aimed to evaluate the use of conventional polymerase chain reaction (cPCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the diagnosis of human strongyloidiasis from stool samples in tropical areas. Stool samples were collected from individuals and were determined to be positive for Strongyloides stercoralis (group I), negative for S. stercoralis (group II) and positive for other enteroparasite species (group III). DNA specific to S. stercoralis was found in 76.7% of group I samples by cPCR and in 90% of group I samples by qPCR. The results show that molecular methods can be used as alternative tools for detecting S. stercoralis in human stool samples in tropical areas.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

A sensitive, specific and reproducible real-time polymerase chain reaction method for detection of Plasmodium vivaxandPlasmodium falciparum infection in field-collected anophelines

We describe a simple method for detection of Plasmodium vivaxand Plasmodium falciparum infection in anophelines using a triplex TaqMan real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay (18S rRNA). We tested the assay on Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles stephensi colony mosquitoes fed withPlasmodium-infected blood meals and in duplicate on field collected An. darlingi. We compared the real-time PCR results of colony-infected and field collected An. darlingi, separately, to a conventional PCR method. We determined that a cytochromeb-PCR method was only 3.33% as sensitive and 93.38% as specific as our real-time PCR assay with field-collected samples. We demonstrate that this assay is sensitive, specific and reproducible.

An in-house real-time polymerase chain reaction: standardisation and comparison with the Cobas Amplicor HBV monitor and Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HBV tests for the quantification of hepatitis B virus DNA

This study aimed to standardise an in-house real-time polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) to allow quantification of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in serum or plasma samples, and to compare this method with two commercial assays, the Cobas Amplicor HBV monitor and the Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HBV test. Samples from 397 patients from the state of São Paulo were analysed by all three methods. Fifty-two samples were from patients who were human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus positive, but HBV negative. Genotypes were characterised, and the viral load was measure in each sample. The in-house rtPCR showed an excellent success rate compared with commercial tests; inter-assay and intra-assay coefficients correlated with commercial tests (r = 0.96 and r = 0.913, p < 0.001) and the in-house test showed no genotype-dependent differences in detection and quantification rates. The in-house assay tested in this study could be used for screening and quantifying HBV DNA in order to monitor patients during therapy.

Continuous-time formulation of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulations

We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time